Yet another war, this time with Iran

[DrZoidberg]

With Trump getting more and more senile, I suspect this disastrous deal is at the hands of Benedict Arnold Vance. That the islamophilic Left agrees with him re Israel is all the more reason to distrust him.

How could we possibly tell if Trump is going senile?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

"My message to them would be twofold. No. 1: Donald J. Trump is the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment in time," Vance told reporters at the White House.
"If I was in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have anywhere left in the entire world."
He said he would also remind those cabinet members that two-thirds of the defensive weapons that have protected Israel "have been built by American hands and paid for by American tax dollars."

It is refreshing to hear a US politician make a statement of reality about Israel.

What?! Trump's remark about the ballistic missiles probably led to a massive spit-take by the entire Knesset.

The US has supported Israel... A LOT. But it sure the heck wasn't Trump... and Trump is definitely not supporting Israel with this agreement. Netanyahu's leadership, radicalism, and stupidity aside, Israel isn't a villain. The government of Israel is woefully fractured. It isn't like Netanyahu's party got 85% of the vote. Trump allowing Iran to include Lebanon in this while not pushing hard on Hezbollah and Hamas support is flat out flummoxing.

As far as US weapons made by "American hands", Israel military support is military industrial complex welfare. Doesn't mean a darn thing!

Now can the same be done toward Russia?

Part of me wonders whether Russia is pulling the strings here. Unless the Arabs are paying Iran to stop it with the nuclear weapons, which is why Trump is in some ways abandoning Israel.

Vance's remarks are, that at the end of the day Trump does not have to consult Israel on anything. That the US is all Israel has. And that the flow of weapons from the US to Israel is at Trump's discretion.

While the world may not see Israel as a villain, they most certainly are seen as going completely overboard in their response.

Netanyahu's Israel is accepting US weapons and using them to fight a war Trump is telling them to take a beat on. True? This has gone completely ignored. Trump does not like to be ignored. Trump is vindictive.

Presently I do not se how this benefits Russia.

This weakens the US, substantially. I'm not saying this has to be Russian influence. It is just the agreement is so needlessly one-sided and quite sudden.

While it is hard to get why this memo of understanding is free of Israel's best interest, it is even much hard to get why this agreement has almost nothing in it for America. If this were "Trump mad at Netanyahu", why in the heck are we facilitating $300 billion in investment to Iran? Why does the agreement say the US can't meddle in Iranian affairs or increase military presence in the region.

Russia seems a bit far fetched, but the only other explanation I can come up with is that the Arabs are kicking the US out and will manage Iran on their own. The memo of understanding is just bizarre, it is hard to justify its existence merely through US diplomatic incompetency, it is that bad of an understanding.

 

[Gospel]

With Trump getting more and more senile, I suspect this disastrous deal is at the hands of Benedict Arnold Vance. That the islamophilic Left agrees with him re Israel is all the more reason to distrust him.

How could we possibly tell if Trump is going senile?

How is the memo of understanding not a sign of diminished decision-making abilities?

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[Shadowy Man]

With Trump getting more and more senile, I suspect this disastrous deal is at the hands of Benedict Arnold Vance. That the islamophilic Left agrees with him re Israel is all the more reason to distrust him.

How could we possibly tell if Trump is going senile?

When he stops “acing” those cognitive tests his doctors seem to give him every two weeks or so?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

View attachment 54551

The trouble I have is that Twitter isn't exactly easy to know what is and isn't a legit Government or Representative account.

 

[SLD]

The text and my review of this deal. This is an abject humiliating defeat of the United States:

Text of U.S. – Iran Memorandum of Understanding

1. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America, and their allies in the current war, by signing this MoU, declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final Deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and other provisions of this paragraph.

So we are indeed responsible for Israel’s actions in Lebanon and we are to ensure the territorial integrity of Lebanon. However, Iran is not prohibited from attacking Israel!!!! This is nuts. There is no respect for the territory of Israel mentioned – just Lebanon.

2. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America undertake to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity and to refrain from interfering in each other's internal affairs.

So we are no longer seeking regime change.

3. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America commit to negotiating and achieving the final Deal, in maximum 60 days extendable with mutual consent.

Fine.

4. Immediately upon the signing of this MoU, the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final Deal.

So we are committed not just to ending the blockade, but removal of our forces from the proximity of Iran. Does that mean our bases in Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait?

5. Upon the signing of this MoU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels, with no charge for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles, and de-mining by the Islamic Republic of Iran, will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman, to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, in discussions with other Persian Gulf Littoral States, in line with applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.

No charge for 60 days only!

6. The United States of America undertakes, with regional partners, to develop a definitive mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 Billion, for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of final Deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America.

$300 billion – unlike the JCPOA, which was $400 million. There is nothing tying this to any actions by Hezbollah, or other Iranian terrorist proxies. This is insane. This does not require anything from Iran.

7. The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed upon schedule as part of the final deal. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions termination issue above mentioned and express their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

We agree to remove ALL sanctions against Iran, including those imposed by the UN Security Council. And we do so immediately. No other requirement on the part of Iran first. This is insane.

8. The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon, in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph 7, with the minimum methodology to be down blending on-site, under the supervision of the IAEA. The two Parties also agree to discuss the issue of enrichment, and other mutually agreed matters relating to the Islamic Republic of Iran's nuclear needs, based on a satisfactory framework being agreed upon in the final Deal. The final Deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the nuclear issues above mentioned and express their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

They’ve been saying that for decades. There is no agreement to dispose the uranium, just to develop an agreement to do so.

9. Pending the final Deal, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America agree to maintain the status quo; the Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions, and will not deploy any additional forces in the region.

Pending the final deal they will maintain the status quo of their weapons program – i.e. pause it where it’s at. But the US will still remove the sanctions and not impose new ones and not deploy additional forces to the region.

10. The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MoU, and until the termination of sanctions, the U.S. Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.

Immediately upon signing this; they can export oil

11. The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use, the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this MoU. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations. Such funds, whether retained in the original account or transferred, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.

We release all frozen funds. They can use those funds for any purposes and can transfer them to Hezbollah or the Houthis. This is nuts.

12. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America agree that an executive mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementation of this MoU and the future compliance of the final Deal.

They’ll agree to comply.

13. After signing this MoU, and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10 and 11 of this MoU and the continuing implementation of these measures, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America will start negotiations regarding the final Deal exclusively on the other paragraphs.

OK. We’ll immediately begin the negotiations for a final deal.

14. The final Deal will be endorsed by a binding UNSC resolution.

OK. Great. In the meantime, they can fund Hezbollah all they want. That was exactly the criticism of the JCPOA. This is an abject humiliation and surrender.

 

[bilby]

3. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America commit to negotiating and achieving the final Deal, in maximum 60 days extendable with mutual consent.

Fine.

Really? Not "agreement", "treaty", or "arrangement", but "Deal", with a capital "D"?

By including the word "Deal" (note the capital "D"), this memorandum has given Trump everything he could reasonably expect to get. It is his sole and entire victory, his only benefit, the single greatest concession made by Iran.

It raises the memorandum from a mere litany of US concessions, into a work of Art.

Apparently.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I don't think the excursion is over. Even if the US and Iran are acting in good faith, which is dubious, Netanyahu and Hezbollah cannot be counted on to hold steady. Further conflict there will break a ceasefire and escalate.

Israel honors deals. The news routinely fails to report the attacks on them that cause retaliation.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I thought the $300 billion was a misprint typo. We couldn't have possibly destroyed that much public infrastructure.

He says "funded by the Gulf Coast coalition". So Iran is going to rebuild... and Saudi Arabia is going to pay for it? I would have thought that some of Iran's oil revenue would be pumped into that fund. But VP Vance says the Arab states that don't like Iran will pay for it. $300 billion of it. Is the Gulf Coast Coalition aware of this?

ETA: The one thing that occurred to me is that maybe the Gulf Coast is "buying" Iran's nuclear weapon program.

And that route has been tried. They simply stopped their nuclear program--and started it elsewhere. Same thing North Korea did.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Yes. You think Trump had a point.

Trump often has at least concepts of a point. The problem is the execution. This idiotic deal is his worst TACO yet.

The global economy is on the verge of a massive energy crisis. That is forcing Trump's hand of which he has many cards. They just aren't worth that much.

Many are making this out as Iran wins bigly. They don't really. Iranian theocracy is having to spin getting their ass whooped. If not for the economic consequences of Hormuz, Iran would be a whipped dog at this point. Iran has promised great reprisals militarily against Israeli and US strikes, but came back with whimpers. But again, a geographic body of water gave them an incredible amount of leverage.

Derec, you seem to think this was so close to victory. Bombs rarely ever take out a government. Ground troops do. And in Iran, the IRGC is everywhere. Trump and the US and Israel were not remotely close to the objective. They barely got to "far away" from the objective. So they shifted goalposts to make this about nuclear weapons to save face.

This is why people like Trump shouldn't be in power. They are too darn stupid.

This is Iran wins bigly. The world has shown it prefers appeasement to dealing with the problem.

Iran has already killed millions, they will kill millions more. And I expect that they'll end up pushing Israel into taking the confirm or deny option.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Was WW2 worse that letting Hitler and any hangers on having free rein in Europe or anywhere else?

It seems unlikely, but then, Hitler actually had that free rein. If Iran and her proxies had the ability to round up the population of Israel and send them to extermination camps, then a WWII level conflict to liberate Israel would undoubtedly be justified.

Iran might have already killed that many by now.

But while their actual ability is limited to very occassional incursions with no more than a few dozen victims, it probably isn't worth sacrificing a generation of young men to defeat them in a total war.

Dozens? Try at a minimum hundreds of thousands. Reality is more likely millions, but nobody's even doing much counting.

Particularly as there are plenty of lesser defensive measures that can be taken instead.

You claimed that with Gaza before and never substantiated it.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I'd say the world reaction after the 7/10 proved Netanyahu correct. The world is antisemitic and Israel being fair is a waste of time for them. That will only lead to Jewish suffering.

All evidence suggests that no matter what Israel does the Arabs will want to exterminate them. Appeasing them is a waste of time.

I'd say the actions of the Netanyahu government rational and pragmatic. If we want Israel to play nice we've got to give them incentives to do so. That hasn't happened and doesn't look like it ever will

Worse, playing nice always ends up bad for them. You get what you reward. Harsh behavior brings fewer attacks, nice behavior brings more attacks. What do you expect the result to be?

On the flip side, Gazans die, the world protests Israel. You reward dead civilians, you get more dead civilians.

But there has to be a good solution, therefore this can't be true. And the keys must be under the streetlight.

Trump expects Iran to stop supporting Hamas while Israel keeps taking Palestinian land.

Hitting Iran where it hurts until Iran stops supporting Hamas, might not work. But I think its excellent that USA tries to. Even if it doesn't work, USA has put weight behind their words. That's not nothing.

I don't think Iran cares one iota about the Palestian people. I don't think they care what more land Israel grabs. Their problem is with Jews being uppity and think they're worthy of respect as equals. They want the holy land to be run by Muslims

Exactly. That's the only real trigger in history.

It was a standoff due to Hormuz and Trump upset the apple cart. Israel sucked him into war. The Obama agreement was probably the best that is possible.

Any peace agreement will not last unless Israel is reigned in. Israel has said it is looking for support, distancing from USA.

Peace with Muslims doesn't seem to be possible until every Jew in the holy land exterminated. That seems to be the only thing that will satisfy the Muslims. Unless that's the kind of "reigning in" you have in mind I think you are just fantasizing

Won't even work. Israel is simply their first target.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Sure. But Netanyahu in power is a reaction to how they've been treated by the Muslims over the years. Your causal chain is all backward

The Palestinians have overplayed their hand and behaved so abominably I don't think they have any legitimate grievance any more. There's a context


Actions has to have consequences or we're all fucked

To me, it's not even a matter of overplayed. They have weaponized civilian deaths. That's not going too far, that's going pure evil.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

With Trump getting more and more senile, I suspect this disastrous deal is at the hands of Benedict Arnold Vance. That the islamophilic Left agrees with him re Israel is all the more reason to distrust him.

How could we possibly tell if Trump is going senile?

How is the memo of understanding not a sign of diminished decision-making abilities?

Note that "diminished decision-making abilities" doesn't mean he's going senile--it's also consistent with him having gone senile long ago.

 

[DrZoidberg]

With Trump getting more and more senile, I suspect this disastrous deal is at the hands of Benedict Arnold Vance. That the islamophilic Left agrees with him re Israel is all the more reason to distrust him.

How could we possibly tell if Trump is going senile?

How is the memo of understanding not a sign of diminished decision-making abilities?

He's ever had functioning decision-making abilities?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Yes. You think Trump had a point.

Trump often has at least concepts of a point. The problem is the execution. This idiotic deal is his worst TACO yet.

The global economy is on the verge of a massive energy crisis. That is forcing Trump's hand of which he has many cards. They just aren't worth that much.

Many are making this out as Iran wins bigly. They don't really. Iranian theocracy is having to spin getting their ass whooped. If not for the economic consequences of Hormuz, Iran would be a whipped dog at this point. Iran has promised great reprisals militarily against Israeli and US strikes, but came back with whimpers. But again, a geographic body of water gave them an incredible amount of leverage.

Derec, you seem to think this was so close to victory. Bombs rarely ever take out a government. Ground troops do. And in Iran, the IRGC is everywhere. Trump and the US and Israel were not remotely close to the objective. They barely got to "far away" from the objective. So they shifted goalposts to make this about nuclear weapons to save face.

This is why people like Trump shouldn't be in power. They are too darn stupid.

This is Iran wins bigly. The world has shown it prefers appeasement to dealing with the problem.

I don't see your ass in the military. Removing the Theocracy in Iran will kill tens of thousands of troops, easy.

Second, this isn't appeasement. The Trump Admin's 'memo of agreement' is way beyond appeasement. Trump saying Iran should be allowed to have ballistic missiles?!

Iran has already killed millions, they will kill millions more. And I expect that they'll end up pushing Israel into taking the confirm or deny option.

Millions?

Regardless, it is interesting how you are making this about Iran and not how in the hell the Trump Admin swung to this oddly pro-Iranian agreement.

Now again, Iran got their ass handed to them militarily, and that showed a lot of weakness. Iran is talking tough because they don't want the people to get any ideas. But this is much less now about Iran than it is about how Trump has managed to take a stalemate and turn it into a full blown loss.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

With Trump getting more and more senile, I suspect this disastrous deal is at the hands of Benedict Arnold Vance. That the islamophilic Left agrees with him re Israel is all the more reason to distrust him.

How could we possibly tell if Trump is going senile?

How is the memo of understanding not a sign of diminished decision-making abilities?

He's ever had functioning decision-making abilities?

When the gunman tried to attack the Press Dinner, Trump immediately spun the attack for justification for the Ballroom. A Ballroom he had no funds to build and was building anyway and needed Congress to pass funding for it. Was that Property Developer Trump seeing an angle or was it fed to him. I have no idea, but it is definitely a question.

Trump clearly isn't the sharpest and even if he did pivot the attack to the Ballroom, that might be more muscle memory, but it is generally impossible to get inside Trump's mind.

 

[crazyfingers]

Well it's clear that not only did Trump start this war without a clear idea what the objectives were, without a clear exit strategy and without clearly evaluating the risks, particularly of Iran closing the Strait, there was no clear understanding between Trump and Netanyahu what conditions would end the war. Now Netanyahu is off doing what he wants to do and Trump is all pissed off.

The result of this war will be that Iran will be much better off under this "Deal" than it was under the Obama deal that Trump tore up. The US will probably end up spending $Trillion repairing it's own bases and rebuilding its armaments. Trump has, amazingly, destroyed even more of the US's credibility around the world. What credibility was left before he started this war is gone now.

Iran will likely end up with some control over the Strait. Something it didn't have before. It might still keep it's enriched uranium. In any case, the ability to close the Strait may be as powerful as having the Bomb when it comes to Iran getting what it wants in the future.

Once again, Trump is great at wreaking things.

 

[DrZoidberg]