2026 Mid-Term Elections

[Derec]

Adjusted for inflation,

Why the hell would we adjust for inflation for the short time frames you are talking about?

You snipped most of my statement. It went:

And the prices are not even at all time highs.
Adjusted for inflation, gasoline prices were higher in 2022, 2008, early 2010s (after that, the shale revolution reduced prices by massively expanding domestic supply, but some 2020 Democrats wanted to undo it by banning fracking) and even in the aftermath of the 1979 oil crisis.

While 2022 is a short time frame, cumulative inflation since then is 13%. Hardly negligible. And I also mentioned 2008 and 2010 (cum. inflation since 2010 is 53%) and even 1979 oil crisis (cum. inflation 454%). Those are not short timeframes either.

Incomes haven't improved. Inflation is the point.

Unmitigated bullshit.

Even adjusted for inflation, the median income generally trends up.

'Adjusting' is cooking the stats.

No. Using nominal instead of real prices would be cooking the stats.

There is something else from that post of mine:

I know your statement is hyperbolic, but I think it needs to be pointed out that there is only so far that gas/diesel prices can rise because of feedback loops that both act to increase supply and decrease demand.

As if to confirm this, gas prices around here have dropped 30-40¢ this past week.

Don't they already have a 'Minority Leader' who would become 'Majority Leader'. Who is that?

The new Congress chuses[sic] their own leadership. They often stick with previous leaders (who are Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries for Senate and House respectively) but that is not automatic. They still need to be elected by the membership.

there will probably need to be a pro democracy mob at the Capitol on that day if we want to see our electees seated.

I hope that mob is more peaceful and less fiery than the mob responsible for the George Floyd insurrection ...

 

[TV and credit cards]

President Donald Trump said the US government will send a one-time $90 payment to more than 20 million Americans enrolled in Medicare

I know the value of money is relative but I am comfortable in saying, what a fucking insult.

 

[laughing dog]

President Donald Trump said the US government will send a one-time $90 payment to more than 20 million Americans enrolled in Medicare

I know the value of money is relative but I am comfortable in saying, what a fucking insult.

I'll believe it when the bribe arrives. Not that it will work.

 

[unapologetic]

President Donald Trump said the US government will send a one-time $90 payment to more than 20 million Americans enrolled in Medicare

I know the value of money is relative but I am comfortable in saying, what a fucking insult.

My insurance payments are going up $80 per month in Jan. Every month. One time is just a token.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Texas is hinging on a swing vote from Abbott support to Talarico support. Fox News notes that 10% of Talarico voters are voting for Abbott. Weirdly, 3% of Paxton voters are voting for the Democrat for Governor, of course, the +/- on that could explain that. The Dems winning Texas would put the Dems over to 52... assuming they win MN, ME, OH, and MI. The GOP have given up in NC. Cooper is apparently too popular to even try to fight against. Gas prices are dropping in Ohio (gas tax holiday), so Husted should benefit a little.

 

[ideologyhunter]

Early voting starts for my county tomorrow.
Remember, voting's just like driving.
To go backward: "R"
To go forward: "D"

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Currently seeing 48-48 for the US Senate. To me, TX, MI, OH, ME are the toss ups, despite relatively consistent leads for the blues, except ME which is switching back and forth.

MI and OH have the Democrat in the lead consistently, but not hitting my favored number of 50, in almost any poll. TX is TX so, at best, it should be expected to be close. A blow out would be nice caused by depressed right-wing turnout, but the Governor is on the ballot, so would turnout be that depressed? ME, Collins has nine-lives in the Senate. 51 won't be enough, the lead must be Fetterman proof. Trump and the GOP will give him a Qatari jet for changing parties.

 

[Tigers!]

Early voting starts for my county tomorrow.
Remember, voting's just like driving.
To go backward: "R"
To go forward: "D"

I've seen the videoes of US drivers. I would not tell them driving is just like voting. They could end up anywhere.
Are these postal voting or similar that starts tomorrow?

 

[Derec]

Early voting starts for my county tomorrow.
Remember, voting's just like driving.
To go backward: "R"
To go forward: "D"

Put it in 'H'!

 

[TV and credit cards]

Hispanic voters sour on Republicans
Among Hispanic voters Republican support has dropped from 33% to 26%. While the Democrats have moved from 50% to 52% this year.

 

[SLD]

And so it begins:



Setting the stage already for claims of fraud.

 

[Politesse]

And so it begins:

View attachment 55515

Setting the stage already for claims of fraud.

So on the one hand, you've got President Trump: caught red-handed making a recorded phone call to an election official telling him how many votes he needs to "find" to change the results of an already concluded election.

On the other hand, you've got Governor Newsom... existing?

The funny thing is, Newsom did back a ballot measure to, in effect, abuse the fact of populational majority to legally cheat in the upcoming election via gerrymandered districts. But this comic isn't accusing him of the thing he actually did. It's accusing him of the thing Mr Trump did. If the caption instead read "How many lines do we need to draw to make it look like we won the O.C. this year?" it would be a valid lampoon.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Hispanic voters sour on Republicans
Among Hispanic voters Republican support has dropped from 33% to 26%. While the Democrats have moved from 50% to 52% this year.

That is hardly a shift.

But looking at Texas now:
Cruz v Allred in '24 was 57-43 Hispanics for Allred. (+14)
NY Times / Siena has Talarico 62 to 30. (+30) Not as huge a gain as it is a big loss. I have no idea what to expect in the polls.

Cruz v Allred in '24 was 36-64 Whites for Cruz. (+28)
NY Times / Siena has Talarico 39 to 59. (+20)

The NY Times shows the polling is about the same for the Governor, which means, Hinojosa is leading. Fox News shows Abbott and Talarico winning. Talarico (-18 Whites, +29 Hispanics). They show a shift for whites in support of Abbott (Abbott +25 whites, -31 Hispanics).

 

[Tigers!]

And so it begins:

View attachment 55515

Setting the stage already for claims of fraud.

So on the one hand, you've got President Trump: caught red-handed making a recorded phone call to an election official telling him how many votes he needs to "find" to change the results of an already concluded election.

On the other hand, you've got Governor Newsom... existing?

The funny thing is, Newsom did back a ballot measure to, in effect, abuse the fact of populational majority to legally cheat in the upcoming election via gerrymandered districts.

"Legally cheat"? Isn't that an oxymoron? Apparently gerrymandering is ok if the right people do it.

But this comic isn't accusing him of the thing he actually did. It's accusing him of the thing Mr Trump did. If the caption instead read "How many lines do we need to draw to make it look like we won the O.C. this year?" it would be a valid lampoon.

 

[Politesse]

"Legally cheat"? Isn't that an oxymoron?

Ask a lawyer.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

link

Since Labor Day, when President Donald Trump opened up his war chest for the midterms, Republicans have pumped half a billion dollars into competitive House and Senate races.

A month later, the polls haven’t moved in their direction.

High-quality public surveys show Democratic Senate candidates tied or leading in Alaska, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas — the same as before Labor Day. Democrats’ lead on the generic congressional ballot has slightly widened since, from about six points to roughly nine, according to analyst Nate Silver’s polling average.

It is very simple, gasoline and diesel prices are killing the GOP. The effort in Iran started a clock and that clock expired in August, when gas prices were going to become an issue. And in the several month long period of 'anytime now' turning into 'after the election', Trump has tied an anchor to the GOP. Sadly, other than GA and NC, the polls are generally close in battleground (NH, ME, OH, MI) and not so battleground states (AK, TX, KS, NE). But while close, the polling has trended blue since late August and the expensive gas/diesel. The polls could be off and the Democrats manage only to to get to 49-51 or 50-50, which would still be good against an election map this hard.

Gasoline prices are the GOP's egg prices / inflation for Harris... just with the minor difference that Trump is directly responsible for the gasoline prices where as egg prices were a disease/supply issue and inflation was from the Pandemic recovery. If the latest YouGov polls are accurate, the Democrats could finish with 52 seats proper, excluding the independents! This could give the voting caucus 55+ seats. That is absurd! But when you have the Vice President stumping in Kansas... that is what we call a "red flag" for the GOP, that they themselves are scared out of their minds.

 

[ZiprHead]

Steve Hilton, the Republican candidate for California governor, is receiving heavy criticism from members of his own party over a controversial, sexual innuendo-filled campaign ad that has been described as “creepy”.

The video entitled “Just Try It, California” was released last week and depicts two young women with brightly colored hair, sitting on a bed in front of a pride flag in low lighting. One nervously says “I can’t believe I’m doing this”, while another strokes her hair and coaxes “don’t be nervous, it’s not that bad” before guiding her to fill out a ballot for Hilton and aggressively commanding “lick it”.

The controversy comes as Hilton, a British former political adviser to David Cameron and Fox News host, is fighting to advance his longshot bid against Xavier Becerra, the former health secretary. With just a few weeks to go before the November midterm elections, Hilton is trailing in the polls.

Sonja Shaw, the Republican nominee for California superintendent of public instruction, called the new campaign ad “creepy, weird, disturbing garbage”.

“This is a clear example of exactly why good people are walking away from the Republican party. As a mother and someone who has fought to protect the innocence of children, this crosses a line. We have lost our way,” she wrote on social media.

Republicans criticize Steve Hilton for ‘creepy’ innuendo-filled campaign ad

Hilton faces heavy backlash from within his own party for ‘Just Try It’ ad amid his longshot bid for California governor

www.theguardian.com

 

[Politesse]

I thought it was hilarious.

 

[SLD]

link

Since Labor Day, when President Donald Trump opened up his war chest for the midterms, Republicans have pumped half a billion dollars into competitive House and Senate races.

A month later, the polls haven’t moved in their direction.

High-quality public surveys show Democratic Senate candidates tied or leading in Alaska, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas — the same as before Labor Day. Democrats’ lead on the generic congressional ballot has slightly widened since, from about six points to roughly nine, according to analyst Nate Silver’s polling average.

It is very simple, gasoline and diesel prices are killing the GOP. The effort in Iran started a clock and that clock expired in August, when gas prices were going to become an issue. And in the several month long period of 'anytime now' turning into 'after the election', Trump has tied an anchor to the GOP. Sadly, other than GA and NC, the polls are generally close in battleground (NH, ME, OH, MI) and not so battleground states (AK, TX, KS, NE). But while close, the polling has trended blue since late August and the expensive gas/diesel. The polls could be off and the Democrats manage only to to get to 49-51 or 50-50, which would still be good against an election map this hard.

Gasoline prices are the GOP's egg prices / inflation for Harris... just with the minor difference that Trump is directly responsible for the gasoline prices where as egg prices were a disease/supply issue and inflation was from the Pandemic recovery. If the latest YouGov polls are accurate, the Democrats could finish with 52 seats proper, excluding the independents! This could give the voting caucus 55+ seats. That is absurd! But when you have the Vice President stumping in Kansas... that is what we call a "red flag" for the GOP, that they themselves are scared out of their minds.

If democrats are counting on gas prices, they’ll be sorely disappointed. Gas prices have come down and will continue to come down through the election. The spike was over 6 months ago. And now people are so used to them that any relief feels great. Nothing much is happening in this war with Iran that dominates the news headlines. Absent some further issue, I don’t see the Dems doing as well as they think they are. They might still take back the house. But it will be damn close.

 

[ZiprHead]

I thought it was hilarious.

I think that 's what is referred to as "reaching across the aisle."