Polls be polling.
Latest poll out of Arkansas indicates that Hell is not to freeze over. Cotton is up 9 points on the Democrat. This is the same pollster that had the Democrat up by several points in August. So precision might not be an in-house specialty.
Michigan continues to drag out these nonsense 5 to 10+ pt undecided dumbass polls. Reports indicate the GOP is giving up on the MI Governor Race, which likely will have some coat tails. Michigan shouldn't be as hard a victory as we aren't looking for Republicans to vote Democrat unlike Texas. Regardless, this state sucks with these polls.
Ohio is likewise, with 5% undecided being a lucky poll. More between 5 to 15% undecided. Ohio has been the red side of purple, so despite Brown leading in almost every poll, we are far from certain.
Far less than in North Carolina and Georgia. So Trump has cost the GOP at least one seat in having Tillis leave.
Texas is following a closer to Michigan path, with the exception that Talarico needs red votes to win. I'm continuing to see the same thing regarding race. While Hispanics are swinging from the 50/50 with Harris, it isn't a huge swing, but with White swinging left, there is an accumulating impact. Elon Musk is dumping money into Texas like he doesn't need a tax cut. InsiderAdvantage has skewed more to the red party. Time will tell if they have a better model. It is the only poll Paxton is leading in and the other polls are saying Paxton is losing the suburbs which would imply the election as well.
Iowa is back and forth, but that just feels like the blue polls are missing something and Iowa is going to be closer, but not close enough. But there is a Governor race, and the Democrat is winning in that.
Kansas and Nebraska are both within the margin of error and flopping back and forth.
Maine has Jackson at 49 to 50 percent. But Collins always comes back,
New Hampshire, it wasn't too long ago when it looked like the Republican Sununu would win out. But the polls have shown a consistent / strong enough lead. It is interesting that Maine and New Hampshire are not in lockstep.
Alaska has the Democrat ~50.
This election is bonkers. The close states?
- Very Dark Horses (3)
- MT (independent)
- MS (freaking MS?!). Poll says 4 pt lead for GOP incumbent. The GOP losing this would be a disgrace!
- If MS, then LA who said red diesel is fine... meaning there are electoral concerns.
- Close States (5)
- Pink States
- Light Blue States
- Polling Tossups (6)
I suppose this is what we want? Competition? Just seems nuts that $6+ a gallon for diesel because the idiot President waltzed the US into a conflict without a freaking plan... makes it 48/52 to 52/48 in Kansas and Nebraska. Well sure... he did make it impossible for us to make a living, but... the Democrats want to turn our children into dogs... and I'm sure this third red scare is for realz!
I sit the Dems at 48, GOP at 46 with TX, KS, NE, OH, MI, ME as unknowns. How in the heck is Ohio and Texas unknown? Well yes, candidate quality. But Kansas and Nebraska? That is some awful leadership. Dems need 4 of the 6 tossups for a Fetterman-proof majority.