Obama's Ongoing Foreign Policy Failure - Putin's Bitch

[maxparrish]

Garry Kasparov's commentary in the WSJ makes several points that are self-evident.

Boris Nemtsov, my longtime friend and colleague in the Russian opposition, was murdered in the middle of Moscow on Friday night. Four bullets in the back ended his life in sight of the Kremlin, where he once worked as Boris Yeltsin’s deputy prime minister. ...

Mr. Obama has already decided to continue his policy of disengagement from the Middle East...Of the conflict in Syria, he said, “we must recognize that there cannot be, after so much bloodshed, so much carnage, a return to the prewar status quo.” But every listener was aware that Mr. Obama had no intention of backing his words with action.

Mr. Putin, speaking about an hour later in the same room, included his usual NATO-bashing and obvious lies. ...He spoke of national sovereignty—which is very important to Mr. Putin, unless it’s the sovereignty of Georgia, Ukraine or another place where he wishes to meddle.

In other words, Mr. Obama’s speech was routine because he knows he will not act. Mr. Putin’s speech was routine because he knows he will act anyway.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/garry-kasparov-putins-culture-of-fear-and-death-1425249677

Today the news is that Russian aircraft are now bombing - not Isis, but the Free Syrian Army. Obama's 'disengagement' and empty red-lines have only led to greater Russian aggression and the filling geostrategic vacuums. And Putin's most recent message to Obama is: 'Get out and, in the meantime', don't get in our way'.

And sadly, we have to hear Kerry and Obama yammer on with empty and laughable warnings to the Russians.

 

[Jayjay]

Sad to say that Russia is in a great position to win this one. Democracies are weak, they can't wage war because thye have to wrory about things like domestic public opinion, or refugees, or avoiding civilian casualties. Russia doesn't have to worry about any of these, at least not to the extend that USA or Europe would: it can control its own internal media and opposition, it doesn't have to worry about influx of refugees because that's Europe's problem, and it can bomb children and get away with it thanks to its international propaganda machine. And more importantly, IS and rebels know it will do this, unlike the US which will buckle down at the first pictures of dead children or soldiers in coffins.

There is really no way the US can stop Russia now, the situation is too fucked up and US has no reliable allies in the region. The best case scenario for US is if it can stay the fuck out and polish its image while Russia does the dirty work.

 

[Frikki]

Garry Kasparov's commentary in the WSJ makes several points that are self-evident.

Boris Nemtsov, my longtime friend and colleague in the Russian opposition, was murdered in the middle of Moscow on Friday night. Four bullets in the back ended his life in sight of the Kremlin, where he once worked as Boris Yeltsin’s deputy prime minister. ...

Mr. Obama has already decided to continue his policy of disengagement from the Middle East...Of the conflict in Syria, he said, “we must recognize that there cannot be, after so much bloodshed, so much carnage, a return to the prewar status quo.” But every listener was aware that Mr. Obama had no intention of backing his words with action.

Mr. Putin, speaking about an hour later in the same room, included his usual NATO-bashing and obvious lies. ...He spoke of national sovereignty—which is very important to Mr. Putin, unless it’s the sovereignty of Georgia, Ukraine or another place where he wishes to meddle.

In other words, Mr. Obama’s speech was routine because he knows he will not act. Mr. Putin’s speech was routine because he knows he will act anyway.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/garry-kasparov-putins-culture-of-fear-and-death-1425249677

Today the news is that Russian aircraft are now bombing - not Isis, but the Free Syrian Army. Obama's 'disengagement' and empty red-lines have only led to greater Russian aggression and the filling geostrategic vacuums. And Putin's most recent message to Obama is: 'Get out and, in the meantime', don't get in our way'.

And sadly, we have to hear Kerry and Obama yammer on with empty and laughable warnings to the Russians.

Are you going to sign up to go fight in Syria? Or anywhere or are you going to pull a Loren and complain from the sidelines?

 

[TSwizzle]

There is really no way the US can stop Russia now, the situation is too fucked up and US has no reliable allies in the region. The best case scenario for US is if it can stay the fuck out and polish its image while Russia does the dirty work.

It makes me wonder if Obama is being smart by letting Russia do the dirty work. But I am reluctant to give Obama too much credit.

 

[Ford]

Sad to say that Russia is in a great position to win this one.

If by "win" you mean "get dragged into a quagmire," then I agree. And while Russia certainly can be more brutal than the US, will brute force really win the field at this point? The Assad regime tried to crush the early stages of the rebellion with brute force. Not only did it not work, it turned a fight between rebels and the regime into a three way conflict between rebels, ISIS, and the regime. Now Putin comes in on the side of a government that has lost 60 percent of their territory, but he's not going "all in." Just air strikes.

He's actually making a bigger mistake than the US made in Iraq. We went in, toppled the regime, and didn't prepare for the collapse of the state we invaded. Russia is walking into a state that has already failed...a multi-front civil war that's probably going to go on for years.

Good luck with that, Vlad.

 

[Valjean]

There's no forseeable good outcome here. Every side's the bad guy in this. What sort of stable government could possibly develop in this region? Every time we intervene things just seem to escalate.

 

[laughing dog]

It wouldn't matter if Obama permanently ended the Syrian crisis with Assad deposed and neutered Russia - max would still come up with complaints about a black socialist Kenyan president of the USA.

 

[maxparrish]

Sad to say that Russia is in a great position to win this one.

If by "win" you mean "get dragged into a quagmire," then I agree. And while Russia certainly can be more brutal than the US, will brute force really win the field at this point? The Assad regime tried to crush the early stages of the rebellion with brute force. Not only did it not work, it turned a fight between rebels and the regime into a three way conflict between rebels, ISIS, and the regime. Now Putin comes in on the side of a government that has lost 60 percent of their territory, but he's not going "all in." Just air strikes.

He's actually making a bigger mistake than the US made in Iraq. We went in, toppled the regime, and didn't prepare for the collapse of the state we invaded. Russia is walking into a state that has already failed...a multi-front civil war that's probably going to go on for years.

Good luck with that, Vlad.

Oh such wishful thinking after the fact. Face it, Putin caught the US flat-footed and now has both the will and the means to give the edge to Assad. While Obama half-heartedly supports what is left of the Free Syrian Army with a pathetic nine 'trained' fighters, and indirect air support, Putin has provided the Assad government forces with close Russian air support against US clients, a ready supply of advanced war material, and 1000 Russian "boots on the ground" troops (so far) to assist.

The US is helpless, and should Putin decide to crush the US supported free Syrians he will do so. And given that the Russian aircraft in Syria are much superior to the US inventory of archaic fighters, it would be suicide for the US to oppose their work.

The Syrian deployed Russian SU-30s: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-30

...the multirole Su-30MKI, which originated as the Su-27UB modified with avionics appropriate for fighters. Along with its ground-attack capabilities, the series adds features for the air-superiority role, such as canards, thrust-vectoring, and a long-range phased-array radar. Its derivatives include the Su-30MKM, MKA and MKV for Malaysia, Algeria and Venezuela, respectively. The Russian Air force operates several Su-30s and has ordered the Su-30SM version. ...

The integrated aerodynamic configuration, combined with the thrust vectoring control ability, results in high manoeuvrability and unique takeoff and landing characteristics. Equipped with a digital fly-by-wire system, the Su-30 is able to perform some very advanced manoeuvres, including the Pugachev's Cobra and the tailslide. These maneuvers quickly decelerate the aircraft, causing a pursuing fighter to overshoot, as well as breaking a Doppler radar-lock, as the relative speed of the aircraft drops below the threshold where the signal registers to the radar.[9]...

The Su-30SM is considered as 4+ gen jet fighter.[31][32] The new version has been upgraded based on Russian military requirements for radar, radio communications systems, friend-or-foe identification system, ejection seats, weapons, and other aircraft systems.[33][34] The aircraft is equipped with the Bars-R radar and the wide-angle HUD.[29][34][35][36][37] A contract for 60 of the multirole fighter was signed in March 2012 with delivery by 2016.[38] On 21 September 2012 Su-30SM performed its maiden flight.[39]

F-15s and F-18s would be little more than appetizers for the Russian fighter.

So it won't be a quagmire for Russia, it will be whatever Putin wants it to be (as in the Ukraine). Eventually pushing the US backed free Syria forces to extinction is not a problem for him. And then he will assist Assad directly in killing ISIS in Syria...something that Obama has avoided.

The bottom line is that Putin has told Obama to get out and to kiss his ass. He knows that Russia need not husband its forces and worry over an Obama sponsored military pushback in the Ukraine...Obama has been such a wimp that no one takes him seriously.

Obama lost his chance years ago. The rest is epilogue.

 

[Jayjay]

Sad to say that Russia is in a great position to win this one.

If by "win" you mean "get dragged into a quagmire," then I agree. And while Russia certainly can be more brutal than the US, will brute force really win the field at this point? The Assad regime tried to crush the early stages of the rebellion with brute force. Not only did it not work, it turned a fight between rebels and the regime into a three way conflict between rebels, ISIS, and the regime. Now Putin comes in on the side of a government that has lost 60 percent of their territory, but he's not going "all in." Just air strikes.

He's actually making a bigger mistake than the US made in Iraq. We went in, toppled the regime, and didn't prepare for the collapse of the state we invaded. Russia is walking into a state that has already failed...a multi-front civil war that's probably going to go on for years.

Good luck with that, Vlad.

Russia has some advantages America doesn't. It can be less tactful with bombing civilians, which is both cheaper and more effective in destroying the opponents' morale. Also, Russia isn't primarily fighting ISIS for the time being, it's fighting various other rebel groups closer to the regime positions. Maybe it will be a quagmire later, but at that point Russia and Assad might settle for a frozen conflict like Ukraine.

 

[Axulus]

I say we let Putin and Assad waste their resources fighting this one out. There is nothing worth fighting for in that war torn country. All the productive people left ages ago. You have ISIS right next door who will conduct regular suicide bombings. We should've ended our involvement ages ago. The place is nothing more than a dung heap at this point.

 

[Valjean]

Russia prefers a stable tyrrany to a perpetual, factional war. Neither is a particularly desirable outcome, but how can one of these be avoided without a Great Power invasion and virtual Raj?

 

[beero1000]

F-15s and F-18s would be little more than appetizers for the Russian fighter.

I'm not convinced of that at all, as the Su-30 and F-15/F-18 are both analogous 4th gen planes. In any case, it's a moot point as the US has F-22's in Syria too. They seriously outmatch the Su-30SM in basically every way, and would eat them alive. Any Russian equivalent to the F-22 is at least a few years away.

 

[untermensche]

Garry Kasparov's commentary in the WSJ makes several points that are self-evident.

Boris Nemtsov, my longtime friend and colleague in the Russian opposition, was murdered in the middle of Moscow on Friday night. Four bullets in the back ended his life in sight of the Kremlin, where he once worked as Boris Yeltsin’s deputy prime minister. ...

Mr. Obama has already decided to continue his policy of disengagement from the Middle East...Of the conflict in Syria, he said, “we must recognize that there cannot be, after so much bloodshed, so much carnage, a return to the prewar status quo.” But every listener was aware that Mr. Obama had no intention of backing his words with action.

Mr. Putin, speaking about an hour later in the same room, included his usual NATO-bashing and obvious lies. ...He spoke of national sovereignty—which is very important to Mr. Putin, unless it’s the sovereignty of Georgia, Ukraine or another place where he wishes to meddle.

In other words, Mr. Obama’s speech was routine because he knows he will not act. Mr. Putin’s speech was routine because he knows he will act anyway.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/garry-kasparov-putins-culture-of-fear-and-death-1425249677

Today the news is that Russian aircraft are now bombing - not Isis, but the Free Syrian Army. Obama's 'disengagement' and empty red-lines have only led to greater Russian aggression and the filling geostrategic vacuums. And Putin's most recent message to Obama is: 'Get out and, in the meantime', don't get in our way'.

And sadly, we have to hear Kerry and Obama yammer on with empty and laughable warnings to the Russians.

Please, give us the easy solution that Obama can't see.

 

[maxparrish]

F-15s and F-18s would be little more than appetizers for the Russian fighter.

I'm not convinced of that at all, as the Su-30 and F-15/F-18 are both analogous 4th gen planes. In any case, it's a moot point as the US has F-22's in Syria too. They seriously outmatch the Su-30SM in basically every way, and would eat them alive. Any Russian equivalent to the F-22 is at least a few years away.

Regarding f-15s and f-18s, I disagree. The F-15, in particular, is a 1972 (or earlier) design. It should not be surprising that after 43 years an old design is past its prime. The SU-30 has many advantages, not the least of which is much higher angle of attack and thrust vectoring. In VFR combat it is clearly superior to both of the US warplanes.

A clear idea comes from an authoritative source: Aviation Week and Space Technology magazine.

In “Su-30MK Beats F-15C ‘Every Time'” published in 2002 on AW&ST, David A. Fulghum and Douglas Barrie reported that the Su-30 used its maneuverability to beat the F-15 in several engagements conducted in a complex of 360-deg. simulation domes at Boeing’s St. Louis facilities.

According to the article (that is often referenced by Indian media outlets to highlight the presumed Su-30 superiority on the American fighter jets) an anonymous USAF officer explained that in the case of a missed BVR missile (like the AA-12 Adder) shot by the Flanker, the Su-30 could turn into the clutter notch of the F-15’s radar, where the Eagle’s Doppler was ineffective.

As the AW&ST story explained in detail, this maneuver could be accomplished making a descending, right-angle turn to drop below the approaching F-15 while reducing the Su-30’s relative forward speed close to zero: even if this is a very old air combat tactic, the USAF officer said that the Sukhoi could perform effectively this maneuver thanks to its ability to reduce rapidly its speed and then quickly regain it.

If the Flanker driver performed correctly the maneuver, the Su-30 was invisible to the F-15’s radar until the Eagle was inside the AA-11 Archer IR missile range, since the F-15’s Doppler radar relied on movements of its targets.

As pointed out by the USAF officer, this tactic “works in the simulator every time,” ...

This happened about 10 years ago.

And in US war games with India, the F-15s were shot down at a ratio of 9:1 in favor of SU-27/30s.

But you are correct, the last I read the US had SIX F-22s in the UAE (presumably a several hour flight from Northern Syria) - which sounds rather impractical if the US chose to defend its own allies in Syria. A Russian air attack (launched from Syria) would be over by the time the F-22s arrived. At best, these few planes can escort a strike package or two.

Sadly, in another blunder the Obama administration strangled the F-22 program, in favor of the "turkey" F-35 which is still years away from deployment (and no match for the SU-30).

 

[Derec]

Are you going to sign up to go fight in Syria?

Depends on the assignment.

 

[tupac chopra]

As long as you don't mind killing some children.

List of children killed by drone strikes in Pakistan and Yemen

 

[Ford]

And right on cue, the Putin Fan Club shows up with the same old "DAE think the US is bad?" routine.

 

[maxparrish]

Garry Kasparov's commentary in the WSJ makes several points that are self-evident.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/garry-kasparov-putins-culture-of-fear-and-death-1425249677

Today the news is that Russian aircraft are now bombing - not Isis, but the Free Syrian Army. Obama's 'disengagement' and empty red-lines have only led to greater Russian aggression and the filling geostrategic vacuums. And Putin's most recent message to Obama is: 'Get out and, in the meantime', don't get in our way'.

And sadly, we have to hear Kerry and Obama yammer on with empty and laughable warnings to the Russians.

Please, give us the easy solution that Obama can't see.

I'm afraid Obama has dealt the US a losing hand. Many years of feckless foreign policy blunders and indifference regarding Libya, Egypt, Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, the Ukraine, and Syria has left the US with few options. In particular, his failure to leave boots on the ground in Iraq facilitated the rise of ISIS. His failure to assist the free Syrian Army has resulted in its fall to that of the minor player, and the rise of ISIS. Obama's failure to show spine in the Ukraine has resulted in the Russian military adventure in Syria.

There is not much that can be done, and what can be done is too difficult for Obama.

Among the options: boots on the ground in Iraq to integrate air strikes with combat units, arming the Kurds an aggressive bombing campaign to shut down ISIS refineries, and a US dictum to the Russians that any air-strikes on anti-Assad US allies will result in retaliation on Assad and/or engage the Turks to create a US imposed no-fly zone over said allies.

Either that or tell Putin he won and walk away.

 

[laughing dog]

Please, give us the easy solution that Obama can't see.

I'm afraid Obama has dealt the US a losing hand. Many years of feckless foreign policy blunders and indifference regarding Libya, Egypt, Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, the Ukraine, and Syria has left the US with few options. In particular, his failure to leave boots on the ground in Iraq facilitated the rise of ISIS. His failure to assist the free Syrian Army has resulted in its fall to that of the minor player, and the rise of ISIS. Obama's failure to show spine in the Ukraine has resulted in the Russian military adventure in Syria.

There is not much that can be done, and what can be done is too difficult for Obama.

Among the options: boots on the ground in Iraq to integrate air strikes with combat units, arming the Kurds an aggressive bombing campaign to shut down ISIS refineries, and a US dictum to the Russians that any air-strikes on anti-Assad US allies will result in retaliation on Assad and/or engage the Turks to create a US imposed no-fly zone over said allies.

Either that or tell Putin he won and walk away.

So your alternatives are war, more war or give up. When was the last time our boots on the ground or bombing created a lasting peace in that region or the world?

 

[Derec]

As long as you don't mind killing some children.

List of children killed by drone strikes in Pakistan and Yemen

Collateral damage is inevitable in war. And some of those on that list are older teenagers, age at which jihadis already start being active and one is listed as 19, so not a child by anyone's definition.

P.S.: How many minors do you think will be killed by Czar Vlad in Syria?