Odds of Trump just dropping out

[rousseau]

If nothing else, this might be the most interesting American election any of us see in our lifetimes.

 

[braces_for_impact]

What does everyone think the odds are of Trump just dropping out before November?

This is assuming that the race keeps going the way that it's going now and Clinton is crushing him in the polls, outspending him by hundreds of millions of dollars and all the minority groups are looking to come out in droves, Sanders has come onto the team and is inspiring all his millions of followers, etc and the race is on course to have Trump lose by epic and historic proportions. There's no turnaround which puts him into the lead.

Does anyone think that Trump will find a way to just say that he's being screwed over by the elitists due to their [insert bullshit excuse here] and drop out of the race instead of being remembered by history as the guy who lost that badly?

I think there's a not insignificant chance of something like that.

I was actually thinking about this last week. I'll repost my prediction I put on Facebook:

To those that have ears, let them hear my pronouncement, as the prophecy issues from my lips.
Donald Trump’s last couple of weeks has been very encouraging. When Trump isn’t being treated with kid gloves like in his Republican debates, he doesn’t fair too well. Thus far, the serious attacks and hard questions haven’t even started yet. There’s a long way to go until November, and frankly, Donald is too stupid and egotistical to be able to control himself until then. So much for looking presidential.
Here is my prediction. Donald isn’t releasing his tax returns for a couple of reasons. 1) He isn’t nearly as wealthy as he says he is, 2) There’s some rather dodgy items in there he’d rather people not see. Combine this with his brand, which has taken a serious hit. His hotels are floundering, he’s lost business deals, beauty pageants, and golf tournaments. It won’t be long before even mentally challenged Trump realizes there’s only one way out of this mess – become President of the United States. After all, with his brand in ruins and businesses on the rocks, what is there to go back to for the man that puts so much stock in “winning” after losing his presidential bid?
So Donald will be getting desperate ladies and gentlemen, and the pressure will only get much, much worse on him from here on out. Republicans don’t want to be represented by him, and the media is finally showing something beginning to possibly resemble a backbone. I expect the snapping point for Donald to be the first debate with Hillary. She is going to clearly show him to the nation as the fool he is. This is not because Hillary is especially daunting, or tough, or has excellent credibility or integrity. She has one outstanding quality. She is unflappable. You saw her at the Benghazi hearings. She has patience, and Donald, well, doesn’t. Donald is a 13 year old boy on Aderall, and it shows. Donald’s ego can’t take much bruising, and he’s already provided Hillary with more than enough ammunition to use against him, and I’m sure he’ll provide plenty more before the first debate. She will put his lack of experience, his lack of knowledge, and lackluster grasp on reality itself on display for all to see. He can only argue back with vague generalities and limp, sophomoric name calling.
The more desperate he gets, the more he will open his mouth. The more he opens his mouth, the more people will be increasingly turned off and convinced he is utterly incapable of being president. So the cycle goes, until the biggest winner, the best negotiator, the man with the best words who makes the best deals goes slinking back to Trump tower – soon to be called Deutsche Bank Properties, Inc.
If you see him later, on the street, flip him a quarter when he comes to squeegee your window, and pity him if you don’t already.

 

[Will Wiley]

What does everyone think the odds are of Trump just dropping out before November?
.

Not likely.
Trump has a massive ego and is now in a two horse race against one of the most unpopular presidential candidates who were favorite to win, ever.
If Trump wins it will be hands down the greatest election performance in American history.
With most of the republican establishment against him and most of the press against him and spending relatively little and as a genuine outsider he destroyed the entire field. All he needs is something major to go wrong for Hillary and he could well be the next President.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Latest news, Clinton's campaign has $43.5 million in the bank, Trump has $1.3 million. 20% of Trump's campaign spending goes to trump related businesses. If Trump can't even run a campaign, can he run an entire nation?

I'd bet many high ranking GOP officials are drinking large amounts of whiskey to deaden the pain.

 

[Will Wiley]

Latest news, Clinton's campaign has $43.5 million in the bank, Trump has $1.3 million. 20% of Trump's campaign spending goes to trump related businesses. If Trump can't even run a campaign, can he run an entire nation?
.

With around $20 Trillion dollars in debt and a fiscal gap of over $200 trillion, maybe someone who runs a leaner campaign could be good for America. Hahahaha

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

What does everyone think the odds are of Trump just dropping out before November?
.

Not likely.
Trump has a massive ego and is now in a two horse race against one of the most unpopular presidential candidates who were favorite to win, ever.
If Trump wins it will be hands down the greatest election performance in American history.

No, that would be Truman defeating Dewey.

With most of the republican establishment against him and most of the press against him and spending relatively little and as a genuine outsider he destroyed the entire field.

A DC outsider. He is not outside of the establishment. He is well entrenched with the establishment.

All he needs is something major to go wrong for Hillary and he could well be the next President.

It would have to be something catastrophic. And this is ignoring the fact that Trump has still yet to be fully vetted as well, with Trump University hanging over his head.

Trump's ratings are returning to where they were, which could potentially put his popular vote in percentage lower than Mondale's. Polling at this point is not in Trump's favor and his statements regarding Hispanics will make winning must win states like Colorado and Florida nearly impossible, pretty much ending any chance of winning.

 

[KeepTalking]

Latest news, Clinton's campaign has $43.5 million in the bank, Trump has $1.3 million. 20% of Trump's campaign spending goes to trump related businesses. If Trump can't even run a campaign, can he run an entire nation?
.

With around $20 Trillion dollars in debt and a fiscal gap of over $200 trillion, maybe someone who runs a leaner campaign could be good for America. Hahahaha

Which country is in worse financial shape? Russia or the USA?

The joke's on you, buddy.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Latest news, Clinton's campaign has $43.5 million in the bank, Trump has $1.3 million. 20% of Trump's campaign spending goes to trump related businesses. If Trump can't even run a campaign, can he run an entire nation?
.

With around $20 Trillion dollars in debt and a fiscal gap of over $200 trillion, maybe someone who runs a leaner campaign could be good for America. Hahahaha

Trump isn't running a leaner campaign. He'd need to be running a campaign at all. He is just talking and tweeting and pretending to finance his own run for President.

 

[Malintent]

I have this crazy theory that Trump only entered this race in the first place to help Clinton, that he has pulled off a masterful performance, and that he always intended to hand the presidency to Hillary if he won the nomination. They have a long history of being friends and of him supporting her and Bill, and it would explain so much. He outcrazied the crazy republicans as only he can, and used his celebrity and bold language to push the talking points the republicans always hinted at, but did it more explicitly and captured the nomination.

Brilliant really on Trump and Hillary's part if this was the plan all along

I would say this scenario is as likely as Coca-Cola planning for the New Coke campaign to work out the way it did.

.. which in itself is a viable, still argued, conspiracy theory that can just possibly be true.

Naw.. sharpshooter's fallacy.. .probably... maybe.

 

[braces_for_impact]

With around $20 Trillion dollars in debt and a fiscal gap of over $200 trillion, maybe someone who runs a leaner campaign could be good for America. Hahahaha

Trump isn't running a leaner campaign. He'd need to be running a campaign at all. He is just talking and tweeting and pretending to finance his own run for President.

Exactly. That was everyone's biggest point as I recall. "Oh, he can't be bought because he's self financing his campaign." 1) No he's not. That's not even true of the Primary, with that big ass donate button on his website for dumb asses wanting to give their hard earned money to a billionaire. 2) The minute he was out of the primary, he ceased being "self-funding". 3) Elections aren't cheap. Put simply, Trump can't afford it.

So today he has a little over a mil cash on hand for his election. He has no big financiers. No one will risk backing this horse. Trump has said all along, he's more than happy to let the RNC do it for him. This warms my heart, because for the Republicans this is a lose/lose proposition. Does the RNC finance Trump's campaign? Throw away all that money, and crucially hurt the other campaigns that are close races that desperately need the RNC's help? Or do they ignore Trump, rely on that press like they have been (which might almost be growing a spine) and fund those other important races? Decisions, decisions...

 

[Speakpigeon]

I have this crazy theory that Trump only entered this race in the first place to help Clinton, that he has pulled off a masterful performance, and that he always intended to hand the presidency to Hillary if he won the nomination. They have a long history of being friends and of him supporting her and Bill, and it would explain so much. He outcrazied the crazy republicans as only he can, and used his celebrity and bold language to push the talking points the republicans always hinted at, but did it more explicitly and captured the nomination.

Brilliant really on Trump and Hillary's part if this was the plan all along

Yeah, I had thought about that too! It just shows that the guy only gives the impression that he is capable of anything even the craziest of all.
EB

 

[Colonel Sanders]

According to NPR it looks like he could be commingling campaign funds with his businesses. I don't know what the legalities are of that, but the report says there are myriad federal regulations against it. But we'll see what happens with that. And suddenly he isn't self-financing. For a man with $10 billion dollars, he'd only have to kick in .05% of that wealth to double Hillary's current war chest of $25 million. But it seems to be more and more likely that before this thing is over, or maybe shortly after it's over, that Trump's personal wealth will be in the sub half-billion range. That's still a shitload of money, but his claims of being worth $10 billion is going to make him look like an even bigger asshole than he does now.

I hope this does turn out to be worse than Mondale-Reagan. Mondale pulled only 3 more electoral votes than I did in that election and I was only ten years old at the time and not even on the ticket. Unfortunately though, it appears that the minimum any state can have is 3. So Trump is going to have to lose every state to do worse than Mondale. But the % difference in popular vote is up for grabs.

Anyway, he's running a third party type of campaign; little money and a tiny staff. I mean, how many staffers does the Green or Libertarian candidate have? Anyone know?

Hillary is blitzing the swing states and Trump has yet to run an ad in those places.

I don't think it's impossible that he'll drop out--it's certainly not farfetched. And Trump, despite his gross overuse of the word "classy" is anything but. He'll leave the GOP like an obnoxious, super drunk party guests who drops his pants and lays a dook in the foyer, yells loudly that everyone can fuck off, and then vomits on the front steps before falling down, hitting his head, and then is carted off in ambulance.

 

[Speakpigeon]

Make America Great Again
Re-animate Franklin D. Roosevelt

A Franklinstein v. a zombified Trump.
EB

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Trump isn't running a leaner campaign. He'd need to be running a campaign at all. He is just talking and tweeting and pretending to finance his own run for President.

Exactly. That was everyone's biggest point as I recall. "Oh, he can't be bought because he's self financing his campaign." 1) No he's not. That's not even true of the Primary, with that big ass donate button on his website for dumb asses wanting to give their hard earned money to a billionaire. 2) The minute he was out of the primary, he ceased being "self-funding". 3) Elections aren't cheap. Put simply, Trump can't afford it.

So today he has a little over a mil cash on hand for his election. He has no big financiers. No one will risk backing this horse. Trump has said all along, he's more than happy to let the RNC do it for him. This warms my heart, because for the Republicans this is a lose/lose proposition. Does the RNC finance Trump's campaign? Throw away all that money, and crucially hurt the other campaigns that are close races that desperately need the RNC's help? Or do they ignore Trump, rely on that press like they have been (which might almost be growing a spine) and fund those other important races? Decisions, decisions...

It does put the RNC in a bit of a pickle. They know that Trump has no shot and really want to use all of their money to shore up the House races so that they don't lose their majority there along with the Senate. On the other hand, split-ticket voting isn't actually much of a thing and there's not a large percentage of people who are going to be bothering to come out and vote for the down ticket races if they don't intend to vote for Trump as well. So, they kind of need to support him but, on the other hand, don't want to burn too much of their cash on supporting him.

If the whole lot of them didn't make me want to vomit, I'd feel sorry for them. As it is, I find the situation they're in to be hilarious.

 

[jonatha]

With most of the republican establishment against him and most of the press against him and spending relatively little and as a genuine outsider he destroyed the entire field.

He destroyed the entire field because the 60%-70% of the (Republican) electorate who voted against him couldn't unite around a single candidate.

That will not be a problem in November...

 

[jonatha]

Mondale pulled only 3 more electoral votes than I did in that election and I was only ten years old at the time and not even on the ticket.

You got 7 electoral votes? Were they from Oregon, Arizona, Alabama, or Nebraska?

 

[RVonse]

The US electorate is being worked heavily by the ruling elite right now....and unfortunately it looks like they are winning again. Most of the people who post on this forum are so liberal, they can not see past their own nose and so they stick to Hillary even though they know what she really is. But the fact remains is that Trump actually comes much closer to representing the middle class than Hillary does. Whether he makes the nomination will not matter to the ruling elite as long as they know he will lose.

One way or another we are going to get another war monger for POTUS, whether most of us like it or not. And one way or another more of the best jobs for the middle class are going to be lost and inequality even higher, whether most of us like it or not.

If you are in the middle class, you may as well pull down your pants, bend over and get the lube. And prepare yourself for what is coming again.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

In what ways do you feel that Trump represents the middle class better than Clinton?

 

[Bronzeage]

In what ways do you feel that Trump represents the middle class better than Clinton?

Trump doesn't actually represent the middle class, he entertains them better than Clinton.

Trump supporters come in two varieties. The first are delusional and the second are self inflicted gun shot foot injuries.

The delusional are just that. They believe Trump is going to win and believe everyone else thinks the same way.

The injured foot crowd know he doesn't have a chance, but their own lives are miserable and in turmoil. They enjoy watching people get upset when Trump does something obnoxious. Other people's misery and turmoil makes their own a little more bearable.

These are the kind of people who cheer on a bar fight between two people they don't know.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The US electorate is being worked heavily by the ruling elite right now....and unfortunately it looks like they are winning again. Most of the people who post on this forum are so liberal, they can not see past their own nose and so they stick to Hillary even though they know what she really is. But the fact remains is that Trump actually comes much closer to representing the middle class than Hillary does. Whether he makes the nomination will not matter to the ruling elite as long as they know he will lose.

One way or another we are going to get another war monger for POTUS, whether most of us like it or not. And one way or another more of the best jobs for the middle class are going to be lost and inequality even higher, whether most of us like it or not.

If you are in the middle class, you may as well pull down your pants, bend over and get the lube. And prepare yourself for what is coming again.

One way or the other, we'll have someone suited for politics in the White House or a completely unsuited person for politics in the White House.

People seem to be whining about jobs leaving the nation for the Middle Class when those particular jobs left in the 70s and 80s. Jobs being lost now are part of a new 21st Century Economy where corporations are wringing the life out of their employees and using Interns and unpaid labor to get work done.