After reading thru Trump’s acceptance/victory speech, there is little to base any projections on. As Trump burned probably as many bridges with the Repug leadership as anything else, it will be interesting to see how well he can guide any meaningful policy changes thru Congress. He has no mandate other than to maybe give a middle finger to DC. The US stock markets recovered from their futures panic attack, even if some of the Asian markets closed with the panic. I noticed a couple minor things in the initial data. In 2012, there were about 129 million votes. It looks like there are going to be about 5 million less votes (124 million) this time, even though there are probably a small increase in voters available. Additionally, third party votes in 2012 didn’t quite get to 1.5% of the vote. Today Gary Johnson got a very high 3% for a LP candidate. Jill Stein even managed 1%. Back to no mandate. So how does a President Trump manage his Trumpster voter anger while not being able to do much of anything, but cut taxes for the upper middle class and above? There won’t be a wall. Though Trump may halt ME immigration into the US for a time, something a President probably can do unilaterally for a while. And that would be a good bone to throw to angry Trumpsters.
Domestic policy:
Trump speech said:
We are going to fix our inner cities and rebuild our highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, schools, hospitals. We're going to rebuild our infrastructure, which will become, by the way, second to none. And we will put millions of our people to work as we rebuild it.
We will also finally take care of our great veterans who have been so loyal, and I've gotten to know so many over this 18-month journey. The time I've spent with them during this campaign has been among my greatest honors. Our veterans are incredible people.
<snip>
We have a great economic plan. We will double our growth and have the strongest economy anywhere in the world.
If, and I still find it a hefty if, Trump really wants to push infrastructure spending, he will find few friends within the Repugs. He would have to reach out to the Dums, even as the Repugs run each house. I would expect this to be DOA in Congress. The question is whether Trump will waste what little capital he has on fighting for it. So in the end I could see the following getting thru Congress: A modest increase in military spending. I could see a healthy bump in VA and INS/border patrol funding, again a good bone to throw angry Trumpsters. The Repugs will have a hard time not increasing VA funding as they should have under the Shrub. I can’t see big tax cuts, but maybe some tinkering for those with money. They may repeal the ACA, but I’m not sure as I can’t see them simply tossing millions off of insurance without some kind of replacement. But, hey chaos and stupidity are still options that are on the table…
Will he be smarter than his words on international trade? Presidents still need Congress for deals, but an administration has the ability to stoke retaliatory fires if his agencies run amok. And the general flow and ebb of international trade could certainly turn more negative if his words stay true. Another thing I could see is more countries pivoting more towards China as a hedge, though I’m not suggesting radical changes, but an acceleration of a current trend. I could certainly see the China International Payment System (CIPS) become stronger in competition with SWIFT.
Social issues: Gay marriage is here to stay, and I don’t think Trump even cares about it. Personally, I think the fundagelicals by next spring will be feeling like they just got dumped after a one-night stand, as the stud struts around on Twitter bout how hot he was. Just how often does anyone think Trump will sit there and listen to a blowhard go on for an hour on Sunday about things he doesn’t care about? Does anything think Melania gives a fuck about fundagelicals? Abortion is a court issue, so even if he mouths the right words, it won’t matter. And even with a Scalia clone on the bench, it will remain the same with right wing states working to regulate abortion out of existence in the states they control.
On to foreign policy:
Trump speech said:
At the same time, we will get along with all other nations willing to get along with us. We will be. We will have great relationships. We expect to have great, great relationships.
<snip>
I want to tell the world community that while we will always put America's interests first, we will deal fairly with everyone, with everyone. All people and all other nations.
We will seek common ground, not hostility; partnership, not conflict.
Wait and see, is about all I can say…it would be nice if the US actually pulled back from intervening at the drop of a hat, but then he’d have to piss off the warmongers and the Lockheed-Martin types. There is a lot of profit in selling weapons to Saudi Arabia to blow up Yemen et.al. Would a President Trump rebuff SA, and stop flying our military refueling tankers to help them lay waste to Yemen? Syria will be a good place to find out just what a Trump foreign policy will be. Will he send 20-30k soldiers to fight and die, or will he cut-n-run in a deal with Putin? 3 Aerospace & Defense ETF’s ITA, PPA, and XAR are up around 2.7% today in a generally flat market, so investors are initially thinking more chaos and weapons. I have no clue….which is why I really didn’t want someone who acted like a maniac to be the next president….sigh.