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Ontario raising minimum wage to $15

If the hiring process involved the HR department scanning the barcode on your arm and getting an instant price quote on your actual value as a worker, this would be a good point.

In the real world, however, you don't really know for sure what an employee's work is worth until he's actually started working for you. You can MAKE AN ESTIMATE of his worth based on his experience, his personality, his background, and how he answers some basic interview questions. You can offer a low starting salary with an option for increase later if you think/hope he might be worth more to you than the average employee. Many (if not all) companies have a "probationary" period where it's understood that the employee is being evaluated to see how well he can do the job and might not have it at the end of the month after all. All of these are part of the "getting to know you" process of hiring, because employers cannot reliably estimate the value of total strangers.

You can make an estimate of his maximum value based on the job he's applying for.
Incorrect. Three different employees applying for the exact same job can have VASTLY different values to the company depending on a great many factors. This is exactly why it is so common for several employees doing the same jobs to be compensated at different rates.

What are you smoking??? We are already seeing the effect--the black teen has a harder time proving they're worth the current minimum wage.
And unless the employer's lack of willingness to hire black teens specifically is the reason for this, they have the same opportunities as everyone else to prove they're worth the higher wage.

Do you honestly think employers have some sort of natural aversion to hiring young black people?

But he's going to get fired much sooner at $15/hr.
He's going to get fired NO MATTER WHAT. That's what it means to be a crappy employee. And if you are a crappy enough employee that your boss doesn't want you working for him, any wage you can agree to work for will not actually save your job.

No. We know it's below the current minimum wage.
If you don't know what it is, then you don't know it's below the current minimum wage.

You really think he interpreted the data better than the researchers themselves?
Considering his post included the data that says it did not, I don't think it's a matter of interpretation.

You're griping about terminology, not addressing the true issue.

The issue is profit margins are not and have never been a "fixed" value, and it's not even possible to claim that they ARE. Long term trends derived over time from a collection of data is NOT the same thing as a "fixed rate."
 
And unless the employer's lack of willingness to hire black teens specifically is the reason for this, they have the same opportunities as everyone else to prove they're worth the higher wage.

Do you honestly think employers have some sort of natural aversion to hiring young black people?

It's not that they are black, it's that they have no employment history and don't seem like good employees. (Hood attitudes do not work very well in the business world.)

But he's going to get fired much sooner at $15/hr.
He's going to get fired NO MATTER WHAT. That's what it means to be a crappy employee. And if you are a crappy enough employee that your boss doesn't want you working for him, any wage you can agree to work for will not actually save your job.

Disagree--it depends on how crappy. If he produces a total of $12/hr in value he's going to be hired at $7.45 but not at $15.

No. We know it's below the current minimum wage.
If you don't know what it is, then you don't know it's below the current minimum wage.

Because there are people working at the minimum wage. If the market clearing price were higher there would be zero takers for minimum wage jobs. Apparently you don't know what a market clearing price is.

You really think he interpreted the data better than the researchers themselves?
Considering his post included the data that says it did not, I don't think it's a matter of interpretation.

I still think he misunderstood something. Why haven't we seen criticism based on that? The left is gone crazy trying to rebut the inconvenient facts, yet they didn't see something obvious?!

You're griping about terminology, not addressing the true issue.

The issue is profit margins are not and have never been a "fixed" value, and it's not even possible to claim that they ARE. Long term trends derived over time from a collection of data is NOT the same thing as a "fixed rate."

Force the profit too low and when businesses die there will be no replacements, until the lack of competition drives the profit margin back up. (Or destroys the industry as the case may be.)
 
The true issue is your argument is incoherent as stated.

You're still derailing from the actual point: The profit ratio is pinned by the fact that when it's too low businesses that fail will not be replaced.
It is not a derail to point out an incoherent argument. There is no such thing as benchmark minimum "profit ratio".
 
It's not that they are black, it's that they have no employment history and don't seem like good employees. (Hood attitudes do not work very well in the business world.)
Do the majority of black teenagers have "hood attitudes" that do not work very well in the business world?

Disagree--it depends on how crappy. If he produces a total of $12/hr in value...
There are no minimum wage jobs that correlate hourly revenue in a way that is that easy to quantify. The only forms of employment to which your statement is even SLIGHTLY applicable are commission-based service/sales jobs and skilled labor occupations that require a certain amount of craft skill (e.g. glass blowing, electronic repair, automotive maintenance, etc).

The only thing that comes close is agrobusiness models where workers are paid a flat rate based on the volume of product harvested (e.g. fruit pickers, tractor drivers, painters, etc) where you have a really huge job and you can measure exactly how much of the job an individual worker is doing. The fast food industry is not one of those types of jobs, nor is restaurant table service, janitorial service, or any of the other types of employment you are likely to find in an urban setting.

So it is not a matter of "value produced" because employers cannot quantify that on an individual basis. It is, in fact, an individualized process of how an individual contributes to or takes away from the overall productivity of the team. A worker who doesn't contribute and drags everyone else down with his bad attitude and lack of competence is going to be fired and replaced with someone with a better attitude. His wages are irrelevant: there isn't a pay rate low enough to convince a boss to keep a terrible employee, because the cost of KEEPING a terrible employee is often far greater.

Because there are people working at the minimum wage.
Irrelevant. Not everyone in every field is earning the "market clearing price" for their line of work. Some are earning far less and some are earning far more. Unless you know what that price actually IS for a particular industry, you're really just guessing.

I still think he misunderstood something.
I don't care what HE understood or not. The chart he posted -- the one from the report -- shows that total earnings actually increased. They showed that the NUMBER OF HOURS decreased, and they showed that the number of job positions at the low end also decreased, but they DID NOT show that total earnings decreased, they showed the opposite of that. HIS interpretation was that the rising minimum wage means more people ABOVE the minimum wage saw their income bracket shift to a higher level (above the $19/hour mark) which caused a rise in incomes overall. My own reading of the data is that some businesses did indeed cut hours of some of their employees and/or cut a few positions, and that the cuts wound up being more or less even for those workers while those who lost out either got re-hired at a greater rate or got jobs outside of Seattle.

Why haven't we seen criticism based on that?
Because nobody but YOU made the ridiculous claim that employers would try to cut their payroll costs BELOW what they originally were. Even this report doesn't make that claim, mainly because that claim would be asinine.

The Washington report only makes the claim that there is a reduction of jobs and/hour hours worked among minimum wage earners. The report is being torn apart for its somewhat sketchy methodology and the fact that its interpretations are far too specific for the kind of data they actually collected. But unlike you, the people who wrote this report haven't gone and re-published their report in an attempt to save face and not be wrong after all.

Force the profit too low and when businesses die there will be no replacements, until the lack of competition drives the profit margin back up.
A sudden reduction in competition ALWAYS drives profit margins up, especially in markets with a high degree of saturation, which the fast food industry DEFINITELY is.

OTOH, I would again repeat that most of the companies that depend on minimum wage to pad their profit margins are the companies that compensate for their terrible service by truly extreme volume. This is why minimum wage is so common in the fast food industry: those restaurants are satellites of multi-billion dollar companies whose profit margins are large enough to buy whole countries at a time. A sudden wage hike would interrupt their business model and force them to innovate, doing things to improve quality and not just quantity of service. That's better for their customers, it's better for their workers, and better for the economy. It's also better for their competitors, who are ALREADY providing high quality service just because they can't afford to match the corporate volume. Family-run restaurants do not pay their workers minimum wage either, for the very simple reason that family-run restaurants don't want to drive their own family members into poverty.

The true issue is your argument is incoherent as stated.

You're still derailing from the actual point: The profit ratio is pinned by the fact that when it's too low businesses that fail will not be replaced.

You are literally just making shit up at this point.
 
You're still derailing from the actual point: The profit ratio is pinned by the fact that when it's too low businesses that fail will not be replaced.
It is not a derail to point out an incoherent argument. There is no such thing as benchmark minimum "profit ratio".

It's a derail to go on and on about a word once the actual idea has been established.

And while there is no benchmark there is the reality that when it drops too low you find the number of companies going down until the profit ratio comes back up.
 
It is not a derail to point out an incoherent argument. There is no such thing as benchmark minimum "profit ratio".

It's a derail to go on and on about a word once the actual idea has been established.
It is not possible to establish an incoherent idea.
And while there is no benchmark there is the reality that when it drops too low you find the number of companies going down until the profit ratio comes back up.
"Dropping too low" is a nebulous term at best. Adding in that you have not connected that a minimum wage necessarily drops the profit rate too low, and your argument is, at best, unconvincing.
 
I don't believe that a company needs an infinite pool of profits to fund anything.

The thing is you consider any analysis of whether they can afford it irrelevant. The only way it can be irrelevant is if the pool is infinite.

No I don't think that whether they can afford it is irrelevant. I think the fact that the vast majority of the employers of minimum wage workers can afford it to be the most relevant point in this entire discussion.

I don't mind if a few marginal businesses are forced out of business. I don't know where we are in my responses to you but somewhere in them I said that this is known as creative destruction, a positive feature of capitalism. I don't want to repeat myself so go to my post #453, or my response to Jolly #396.

It is you who says that we shouldn't increase the minimum wage if it causes one business to go out of business or one worker to be laid off. And that an increase of just ten cents an hour will cause one company to go bankrupt or one worker to be laid off even if it is so far in the statistical noise that we can't find it.

Couple this with your requirement that the profitable producers have to have an infinite pool of profits before they can raise the wages of their minimum wage workers and I am starting to believe that you aren't so much weighing the advantages and the disadvantages of a moderate increase in the minimum wage as you are trying to convince yourself that your reflexive opposition to raising it has some rational support.

This is such a severe and illogical set of requirements that I dare to say that no one else here fully accepts them.

If these requirements are just hyperbole that you put out and that you now feel the need to keep defending them, as I suspect, probably in no small part because I keep needling you about them. In spite of what you might think, I don't really enjoy this and in fact, I am not proud of the sarcasm in my posts directed towards you. Certainly I would never behave like this if we were discussing this face to face.

So let's make an agreement, if you never mention the infinite pool of profits again, I won't either. Also, if you never again accuse me of being a lefty or a liberal I would appreciate it.

I consider myself to be a moderate, all be it in a world that is becoming ever more extreme, appearing to be a liberal to the now far right conservatives and a conservative to the now far left liberals.

Do you believe that a company needs an infinite pool of profits to fund any salary or wage raises that they give to their non-minimum wage workers? <hoping this is a rhetorical question for you?

I recognize that sometimes they can't fund raises. You seem to feel they always can.

This subject is now off limits as far as I am concerned.

In reality the price increase gets passed through to the customer and they respond by buying less.

Why do you think that they didn't raise their prices before the minimum wage increase?

Wouldn't that put them further along the road to building that infinite pool of profits that you say that they need before they can raise the wages of their minimum wage workers?

Perhaps because they knew that their customers would buy less? Or buy from a competitor who didn't raise their prices?

Because they would lose to their competitors. However, when everyone's costs go up that is no longer an issue.

The answer to my non-snarky question is,

Why do you think that they didn't raise their prices before the minimum wage increase?

Answer: Because they were afraid that they would lose business to more efficient competitors, or that their customers would find cheaper substitutes or that their customers would buy fewer products or services.

Follow up question: What would have changed after a minimum wage increase?

Answer: Nothing.

I respectfully point out that you are the one who believes that prices are set by supply and demand. After an increase in the minimum wage nothing has changed. The supply hasn't changed and the demand hasn't changed. So why do think that the price would change?

Is because you believe that marginal productivity has forced everyone to 100% production and the others out of business? If so, tell me and I can explain to you why marginal productivity is BS.

At one time you told me that the weakest producers would be run out of business by the minimum wage increase and the supply would be reduced forcing up the price. If this is what you are basing your statement that the price will have to go up I can help you here too. A hint, what happens to the demand for the product and what happens to profits?

But finally none of this is going to really matter. Do you think that a moderate increase in the minimum wage is going to collapse our capitalistic system in the US? Because no less than the collapse of the system is what I believe that we are facing if we don't do something to raise wages and to include these people in some small part of the success of the economy. If raising wages means that people are laid off, we have to deal with the people who are laid off. If raising wages means that prices go up then we have to deal with prices going up.

You saw what happened in November of last year. The working class elected a totally unprepared, totally unqualified man child to presidency because they believed his lies that he knew what caused their pain and that they believed his lies that he knew what to do to ease their pain and they believed his lies that he could do it and they believed his lies that he would do it.

Do you believe what I have said in the last paragraph?

Do you believe that income inequality is harmful to the economy as a whole? Or do you believe that income inequality is a benefit to the economy as a whole?

Fundamentally, the market is good at finding the optimum point. Any attempt to push it away from that optimum point will make things worse.

Yes, exactly! Why don't you apply that reasoning to the discussion that we are having?

You fail to see that raising costs is pushing it away from that optimum.

I urge you to re-read what I said after the line you included above that began, "Yes, exactly! Why don't you apply ..."

What I was basically saying is that the economy is good at finding an equilibrium point but there is no guarantee that this point will be optimum for anything.

To go on with the explanation, the ability of the economy to adapt to various situations is a virtual guarantee that the equilibrium point won't be the optimum point of full employment that neoclassical economics says that the economy is always automatically heading for, that this ability of the economy, the markets, to find an equilibrium point is both the greatest strength of capitalism and its greatest weakness. Capitalism found an equilibrium point around slavery and child labor. These are not considered to be optimal by anyone today.

Likewise the economy will find an point of equilibrium for every increase in the income and the wealth inequality. This doesn't mean that capitalism is making a judgment about the suitability of income inequality for the economy.

We have to provide the judgment if it is optimal for us, secure in the knowledge that the economy will seek an equilibrium point for any reasonable changes that we believe we need. (no, we can't raise the minimum wage to $100 an hour. No, we can't raise taxes to 100%.) And I am simply saying that the economy will adapt to a higher minimum wage and that the equilibrium point that the economy finds doesn't say anything about the point, good bad or indifferent.

Before the minimum wage increase the company is selling X number of products or services at an established price. If they raise their price their customers will buy less or go to a competitor who hasn't raised their price. The market for their product or service has reached if not an optimum point, at least an established point.

Except that competitor generally is subject to the same minimum wage---their costs go up the same, they also raise prices. When the competitor is outside the area--it's called outsourcing. Note how in many cases the US companies are gone, the production is overseas.

This is true, if they all have the same mix of minimum wage workers and higher than minimum wage workers. And yes, US labor can't compete with the lower wages in other countries. The question that you have to answer is why would we want to compete with them? Why do you want to boost the wages in the low wage countries. What are you, a social justice warrior, campaigning for the poor, downtrodden workers of the world?

This attitude might have have some appeal as PR in same way that the Peace Corp or other foreign aid is or it might have some limited utility, say if we traded extensively with Mexico instead of with the PRC, we would provide jobs in Mexico and raise their wages, all of which would help our problems with illegal immigration from Mexico.

But no we shouldn't be providing jobs and better wages in the third world, we should be doing it in the US to avoid social turmoil, first, and to underscore the desirability and the attraction of working, second. The very fact that disability payments discourage people from working isn't evidence that disability payments are too high, it is evidence that the wages for honest work are too low.

If the company is a marginal operation, if they have no profits to pay the increase it is still unlikely that they will go out of business. They either have capital invested in the business that they want to protect or more likely, they have loans that the bank doesn't want to write off.

So they lose on each item and yet make it up in volume? You realize that's a joke, not sound economics?

Economists know that if they look at the whole economy that increased wages reduce profits and reduced wages increase profits.

This is the very core of supply side economics, that to increase profits to provide the rich with money to invest save they had to reduce wage increases. It wouldn't have worked any other way. And they were so successful that the median wage barely kept up with the cost of living. And the supply siders knew that the federal government determined the split between wages and profits, at least in 1980. They seemed to have forgotten it. Now the split between profits and wages is due to the organic operation of the market and we dare not ticker with it or the economy will implode.


And what you miss is that in the long run the profit ratio is fixed. When the profit ratio is too high competitors enter, driving it down. When it's too low businesses that fail aren't replaced, driving it up.

"The profit ratio is fixed." I don't know what profit ratio you are talking about, to wages, to investment, to CEO's salary, to the lunch menu in the commissary, what? And what is the scope of the ratio that you are talking about, for a single company, for a single industry, for a market, for the economy as a whole?

And I have warned you about talking about the long term. The long term in economics is nothing but the sum of many short terms. It is hard to name a long term trend that differs markedly from the short term trends that make it up. I have noticed that any time that you make this kind of statement where you assert that the long term trend is different from the short term trend that you have descended into the regime of magic to try to prove your point.
 
It's a derail to go on and on about a word once the actual idea has been established.
It is not possible to establish an incoherent idea.
And while there is no benchmark there is the reality that when it drops too low you find the number of companies going down until the profit ratio comes back up.
"Dropping too low" is a nebulous term at best. Adding in that you have not connected that a minimum wage necessarily drops the profit rate too low, and your argument is, at best, unconvincing.

You still are evading, not addressing the reality.

Fact: When the profits in an industry are too low new players will not enter. Old players are more likely to leave/fail, however.

Quit the derails, address this.
 
You still are evading, not addressing the reality.
Your argument has been shown to be incoherent. That is not a derail - it is a relevant fact.
Fact: When the profits in an industry are too low new players will not enter. Old players are more likely to leave/fail, however.

Quit the derails, address this.
To repeat "you have not connected that a minimum wage necessarily drops the profit rate too low", so your responses are simply more examples of incoherent babbling.
 
Fact: When the profits in an industry are too low new players will not enter.

or innovation occurs [as one of a myriad of other possibilities].

Harvard Business Review said:
After a decade of downsizing and increasingly intense competition, profitable growth is a tremendous challenge many companies face. Why do some companies achieve sustained high growth in both revenues and profits? In a five-year study of high-growth companies and their less successful competitors, we found that the answer lay in the way each group approached strategy. The difference in approach was not a matter of managers choosing one analytical tool or planning model over another. The difference was in the companies’ fundamental, implicit assumptions about strategy. The less successful companies took a conventional approach: Their strategic thinking was dominated by the idea of staying ahead of the competition. In stark contrast, the high-growth companies paid little attention to matching or beating their rivals. Instead, they sought to make their competitors irrelevant through a strategic logic we call value innovation.
https://hbr.org/2004/07/value-innovation-the-strategic-logic-of-high-growth

You see Loren, life is more complicated than your single-variable ideology. It is complex and multi-variate.
 
=============== continued from above ===============​

I wrote this days ago and I didn't post it. It is the last response to Loren's post 435182 which therefore has the url - https://talkfreethought.org/showthr...mum-wage-to-15&p=435182&viewfull=1#post435182

(The basic problem is that you are trying to ignore supply and demand.) The market is very resilient against anything but very heavy-handed intervention in this regard--

I am not ignoring supply and demand. I just said that the interaction of the two doesn't set the price. And that demand is not infinite, that in order to have economic demand it is not sufficient for there to be a supply and the desire to own a product or to consume a service, there has to be money to realize the desire. And that the economy is demand lead and that it is no longer constrained by the supply.

I don't believe that the economy is "very resilient against anything but very heavy-handed intervention" in any regard. If this was true, the government interventions would have a minimal effect on the economy. But we know that this is not true and the vast majority of your fellow free market enthusiasts would agree.

It is worth noting at this point again that the government defines the roles and the structure of the players in the economy such as corporations and the professionals that are allowed to do critical jobs. That, as in the broader society, in the market it is the government that defines and enforces what behavior is acceptable. That it is the government that defines and enforces property rights. And important for our discussion it is the government that determines the income distribution to the participants.

In 1980 supply side economists were certain that the market was not resistant to government intervention and that it was government intervention that had pushed up wages and suppressed profits. They were correct.

And what they proposed to do was that the government should intervene to reverse this and to suppress wages and increase profits to increase the the incomes of the already wealthy. And the government did do this. They passed tax cuts, they stopped raising the minimum wage, they stopped supporting the unions, started increasing the government's support of the corporations, started allowing the concentration more corporate control over the economy by larger and fewer corporations, started rolling back the burdening of exchanges with externalities such as having to clean up their own pollution or the burden of having to sell only safe products manufactured in safe factories paying decent wages.

... and I don't want to give the government the sort of control on our economy that would be necessary to force what you want.

What makes you so fearful of the government? I would think that you would be happy with the government that we have now. It is solidly in the control of the party of neoliberalism and anything the wealthy and the corporations want, they get. Exactly the principles that you support, here in this blog.

They have promised to do the things that you want to do, relieve the free market of government oversight, especially the financial sector, banks, because they have learned to regulate themselves and to play nice, not like they did before 2008. To reduce taxation on the rich and to shift it to the non-rich, because the wealthy don't need the government, why should they pay for it? To re-establish the joys working for a living rather than living off of government largess, people like me, disabled and all of those children who chose the wrong parents. To turn government services into private, for profit corporations like was done in Russia. You want the US to be like Russia don't you?

Loren Pechtel said:
You, Reagan, and Milton Friedman are making the same mistake that Marx made. You are proposing an economic system based on conjecture, on an unproven fantasy that is unsupported by history or even theory. Like Marx you are proposing to replace a large part of the regulation of society that government currently does with the regulation by the economic system, to subject large segments of society to the questionable "discipline" of competitive markets, including education, the national defense, health care and jurisprudence.

Whereas you are proposing a system that has been shown not to work.

See, this where your memorized, randomly placed talking points fail you, not to mention your failure to read and/or to understand my posts.

I am proposing to keep the economy that we have right now, the mixed market, government and private enterprise working together, capitalistic economy that you see working quite well everyday. The economy that has provided for you and yours everyday that you and yours are here. The most successful economy that the world has ever seen. The economy that defeated both fascism and communism within fifty years.

Why do you think that it is a failed system?

Your fantasy is that the adaptations that capitalism made were a mistake and that the 99% can be changed to accept your vision of an optimized capitalism. That markets can self-regulate and control much of what government does now. That rather than we using capitalism to improve our lives it would be better to let capitalism change us to improve capitalism. And like Marx, you are wrong.

I realize the markets aren't good at self-regulating.

Jeez, Loren, I wish that you had told me that about 3,000 of my words ago, and long before I made a complete fool of myself.

Oh, well, it isn't the first time and I expect it won't be the last. I have to stop assuming that I can keep it straight who has said what here. I apologize.

I have to regroup.

=============== Okay, I am back again ===============​


That doesn't mean that going head-to-head with the market is a good thing--the results are almost always bad.

I am sure that this argument, that we have to put up with bad outcomes because it is the nature of the beast, has been used to justify not doing anything about monopolies, speculation, slavery, child labor and wife beating, among many others.

Curiously this didn't seem to be a big problem in 1980 when we were told that we should change our policies to suppress the growth of real wages to increase profits to give the rich more money to invest so that everyone would have a good job and more money.

We did change our policies and we did suppress the growth of real wages and we did give more money to the rich but they didn't invest in job producing investments and we didn't all get good jobs and and only the rich got more money. And now we ask what went wrong and can't we change our policies to back to grow real wages by suppressing profits and here we are today with you telling us that we can't go head to head against the market, the bad outcome that will result is just the nature of the beast.

Mitch McConnell told one of his town hall meetings filled with irate constituents that one of the reasons that ObamaCare is a failure is because there are still people in the country without health care insurance.

See if you can spot a flaw in his argument.

Maybe this will help. I heard this argument before when we were told that the war on poverty was a failure because it had only cut the rate of poverty in half.

As much as possible the government should aim for the minimum intervention that accomplishes what's needed.

I agree completely with you. Although I am pretty sure that you won't agree with the next statement.

If anything, the government is always behind the curve writing new regulations and passing new laws for the new innovations that crooks and crooked businesses (since corporations are people now too!) are constantly coming up with. The government therefore has an insufficient number of regulations and laws compared to what is needed at any point in time. However, looking at the entire economy this is a small problem, the vast majority of the economy is regulated well enough and the main problem is enforcement of the existing laws and regulations.

This is due to the government being controlled at the present time by people who have an irrational aversion to regulating businesses, while maintaining an irrational interest in regulating what people do in their private lives. It is an odd and hypothetical mixture of what is important to society. Businesses are deposed or forced by competition from businesses deposed to take advantage of every opportunity to make a profit.

The test of this is if removing more regulations causes more problems than it helps. It's clear that we are close now. Take as example, the inability of anyone here to name a single job killing regulation after what must be going on to three years now. Compare that with the massive amount of damage cause to the world when Alan Greenspan and the other George W. Bush administration appointees decided that the banks and the financial sector had learned to self-regulate and that the Fed and the SEC and the other regulators didn't need to reign them in

It will never be perfect of course, the government is always behind the curve because it can only be reactive. It can't foresee the almost infinite ways that crooks will try to cheat the system, each other and consumers. It has to wait until a problem develops to see if the existing laws are sufficient or if there is the need for new ones. And new regulations create incentives to try to find ways around them.

And the economy is always getting more complex, requiring new laws to handle new developments. Things like the stem cell frauds, the possibility of custom babies by manipulating DNA and self-driving cars.

But the biggest problem that we have is with all of innovation in the financial sector, all of the new heavily leveraged derivatives, some so complex that even the people who developed them don't understand them, because they incorporate other people's derivatives that their creators don't fully understand.

In today's economy, because we have such large corporations, they have the edge by a long margin negotiating wages with employees. They don't have to pay someone what he is worth or even a percentage of the value that the employee adds to the company.

We could reduce the many regulations that we have governing corporations and reduce the advantage that corporations have negotiating wages by breaking up them up into many smaller ones, making it more deficit for companies to control the the wages they pay or the prices they receive for their products and services. This would move the economy closer to the perfect competition model required to self-regulate. It would put the management of businesses closer to the employees, give the employees greater leverage negotiating wages because there would be many more companies doing the same work.

But this is not a reasonable solution. We have gained much from the economic model of large corporations regulated by the government. Large corporations are more efficient because of the economies of scale. The burden of the costs of management and planning are spread over more units of product sold. Large corporations have the money to develop new products and to refine their existing products that smaller companies lack.

They don't have to work hard enough for their profits. They have things too easy now. They don't even know what to do with all of the money that they are earning in profits. They pay higher dividends, the rich stockholders get even ricer but they are running out of places to put the money, the stock market is horribly over valued, many times over, by the P/E ratio standards of just a few years.

Corporations stuff money into offshore banks to avoid paying taxes on it, they hate to pay taxes. The uber-wealthy do the same. The estimates of the amount of these taxes sitting in tax haven banks from the US are in the range of ten to twenty trillion dollars. two companies, Apple and Google combined are estimated to have four trillion dollars off shore.

Also, I am categorically opposed to off-the-books accounting. Minimum wage is a form of off-the-books accounting. Look at the costs fairly, don't push them off into a corner where you can pretend they don't exist. (Thus I favor abolishing the minimum wage but expanding the EITC.)

I don't fully understand what you mean by off the books accounting. It seems to me that if you account for something it is not off the books, if you mean by that it is somehow hidden. But I know that you are categorically opposed to the minimum wage. Although you don't seem to have a full grasp of why, just a collection of talking points that you don't seem to fully understand and can't defend without magic.

You believe that we should drive wages down until they are as low as in any country on earth. You don't seem to feel as if the very lowest paid workers, who often work many jobs, do anything of importance. That they are lowly paid because the markets don't value the work that they do and we readily see this because the markets don't pay them very much. And then a paragraph later you tell us that they should have to compete with the low labor rates overseas. Then someone else tells them if they can't pay for health care, that they don't deserve it. Then you tell them that an education is the way out of poverty but they have to pay for that and if they can't afford it they don't deserve it.

I oppose the EITC, it is better if people have to work for the money needed to live and the EITC is nothing more than a subsidy for low wage jobs and the employers.

The minimum wage is nothing more than one of the many standards that we impose on businesses for the businesses to be in business. We tell them that they have to clean up their own pollution, to pay taxes for the roads that they use and for the schools that taught their workers and that teach their future workers, we tell them that they can't use child labor, how many hours a week their workers can work, and the conditions that they have maintain for the workers, we tell them that they must sell safe products produced in facilities that are safe for their workers, and on and on. And yet you balk at telling businesses what the minimum wage should be because it is off the book accounting because it pushes labor costs off into a corner where we can pretend the costs don't exist.

The last post for this response
 
Your argument has been shown to be incoherent. That is not a derail - it is a relevant fact.
Fact: When the profits in an industry are too low new players will not enter. Old players are more likely to leave/fail, however.

Quit the derails, address this.
To repeat "you have not connected that a minimum wage necessarily drops the profit rate too low", so your responses are simply more examples of incoherent babbling.

Moving the goalposts.

The issue was that your side hasn't established that taking it from business profits will not drop the profit rate too low. You're the one with the active position, you need to support it.
 
or innovation occurs [as one of a myriad of other possibilities].

Not a valid answer. Of course the situation can change and bring the profits back up. You don't take a disastrous path in the hope something will happen and make it ok.

Harvard Business Review said:
After a decade of downsizing and increasingly intense competition, profitable growth is a tremendous challenge many companies face. Why do some companies achieve sustained high growth in both revenues and profits? In a five-year study of high-growth companies and their less successful competitors, we found that the answer lay in the way each group approached strategy. The difference in approach was not a matter of managers choosing one analytical tool or planning model over another. The difference was in the companies’ fundamental, implicit assumptions about strategy. The less successful companies took a conventional approach: Their strategic thinking was dominated by the idea of staying ahead of the competition. In stark contrast, the high-growth companies paid little attention to matching or beating their rivals. Instead, they sought to make their competitors irrelevant through a strategic logic we call value innovation.
https://hbr.org/2004/07/value-innovation-the-strategic-logic-of-high-growth

You see Loren, life is more complicated than your single-variable ideology. It is complex and multi-variate.

Some businesses do better than others. That has nothing to do with the issue at hand.
 
Your argument has been shown to be incoherent. That is not a derail - it is a relevant fact.
To repeat "you have not connected that a minimum wage necessarily drops the profit rate too low", so your responses are simply more examples of incoherent babbling.

Moving the goalposts.

The issue was that your side hasn't established that taking it from business profits will not drop the profit rate too low. You're the one with the active position, you need to support it.
No, I am not. You claim that a minimum wage would necessarily drop profit rate (whatever that means) too low without explaining how a minimum wage without an explanation. Until you make a cogent explanation, your claim and your responses are nothing but babbling ideological nonsense.
 
Not a valid answer. Of course the situation can change and bring the profits back up. You don't take a disastrous path in the hope something will happen and make it ok.

You haven't shown that disaster is the only outcome. You kind of started with that as an unintended assumption due to your ideology, then you keep trying to support it, but the data does not prove it.

Loren Pechtel said:
Harvard Business Review said:
After a decade of downsizing and increasingly intense competition, profitable growth is a tremendous challenge many companies face. Why do some companies achieve sustained high growth in both revenues and profits? In a five-year study of high-growth companies and their less successful competitors, we found that the answer lay in the way each group approached strategy. The difference in approach was not a matter of managers choosing one analytical tool or planning model over another. The difference was in the companies’ fundamental, implicit assumptions about strategy. The less successful companies took a conventional approach: Their strategic thinking was dominated by the idea of staying ahead of the competition. In stark contrast, the high-growth companies paid little attention to matching or beating their rivals. Instead, they sought to make their competitors irrelevant through a strategic logic we call value innovation.
https://hbr.org/2004/07/value-innovation-the-strategic-logic-of-high-growth

You see Loren, life is more complicated than your single-variable ideology. It is complex and multi-variate.

Some businesses do better than others. That has nothing to do with the issue at hand.

Of course it does. Businesses avoid what you call "disaster" by innovation. It happens all the time.
 
I am not ignoring supply and demand. I just said that the interaction of the two doesn't set the price. And that demand is not infinite, that in order to have economic demand it is not sufficient for there to be a supply and the desire to own a product or to consume a service, there has to be money to realize the desire. And that the economy is demand lead and that it is no longer constrained by the supply.

I don't see how you say that the interaction of supply and demand doesn't set the price.

I don't believe that the economy is "very resilient against anything but very heavy-handed intervention" in any regard. If this was true, the government interventions would have a minimal effect on the economy. But we know that this is not true and the vast majority of your fellow free market enthusiasts would agree.

I'm saying it's resilient against government intervention in a case like this where they come head to head. It's much easier to manipulate the economy when you work with it nudging it--for example, using the federal funds rate to heat/cool the economy.

It is worth noting at this point again that the government defines the roles and the structure of the players in the economy such as corporations and the professionals that are allowed to do critical jobs. That, as in the broader society, in the market it is the government that defines and enforces what behavior is acceptable. That it is the government that defines and enforces property rights. And important for our discussion it is the government that determines the income distribution to the participants.

Messing with the basic rules of the game like property rights would be very heavy handed.

In 1980 supply side economists were certain that the market was not resistant to government intervention and that it was government intervention that had pushed up wages and suppressed profits. They were correct.

You continue to base your position on calling taking the thumb off the scale as putting it on the scale.

And what they proposed to do was that the government should intervene to reverse this and to suppress wages and increase profits to increase the the incomes of the already wealthy. And the government did do this. They passed tax cuts, they stopped raising the minimum wage, they stopped supporting the unions, started increasing the government's support of the corporations, started allowing the concentration more corporate control over the economy by larger and fewer corporations, started rolling back the burdening of exchanges with externalities such as having to clean up their own pollution or the burden of having to sell only safe products manufactured in safe factories paying decent wages.

It's not that we became anti-union, it's that the union jobs got destroyed by foreign competition. And the original purpose of the minimum wage was to keep blacks out of the labor market--something not compatible with the civil rights movement.

... and I don't want to give the government the sort of control on our economy that would be necessary to force what you want.

What makes you so fearful of the government? I would think that you would be happy with the government that we have now. It is solidly in the control of the party of neoliberalism and anything the wealthy and the corporations want, they get. Exactly the principles that you support, here in this blog.

1) Because they have a strong tendency to do things for political reasons rather than from a proper study of the situation.

2) Because competition does better at finding the right course than a single point of control, no matter how well informed.

They have promised to do the things that you want to do, relieve the free market of government oversight, especially the financial sector, banks, because they have learned to regulate themselves and to play nice, not like they did before 2008. To reduce taxation on the rich and to shift it to the non-rich, because the wealthy don't need the government, why should they pay for it? To re-establish the joys working for a living rather than living off of government largess, people like me, disabled and all of those children who chose the wrong parents. To turn government services into private, for profit corporations like was done in Russia. You want the US to be like Russia don't you?

I'm not for deregulation of the financial sector. In fact, I'm for somewhat increased regulation. I would like to see restrictions put in place against too much leverage, no matter what the form. Rather than the current system where regulations are put in after the fact when there's a problem (and sometimes not even then) all forms of leverage should have default restrictions that can only be relaxed when it's shown to be safe to do so. (For example, you should be permitted a higher margin ratio when dealing with t-bills than penny stocks.)

Loren Pechtel said:
Whereas you are proposing a system that has been shown not to work.

See, this where your memorized, randomly placed talking points fail you, not to mention your failure to read and/or to understand my posts.

Using the government as a major means of redistribution does far more about cutting down the rich than about helping the average person. Look at Europe, even in the countries that should be outperforming us (same tech base, less military spending) they aren't--they're way behind by purchasing power parity.

I am proposing to keep the economy that we have right now, the mixed market, government and private enterprise working together, capitalistic economy that you see working quite well everyday. The economy that has provided for you and yours everyday that you and yours are here. The most successful economy that the world has ever seen. The economy that defeated both fascism and communism within fifty years.

Why do you think that it is a failed system?

No, you are proposing to go back to the glory years of the 50's and 60's--never mind that the conditions no longer exist and hopefully never will. (We were ahead because the other industrialized nations of the world were rebuilding, this let us export the shit. To recreate the glory years would require devastating the rest of the world.)

Curiously this didn't seem to be a big problem in 1980 when we were told that we should change our policies to suppress the growth of real wages to increase profits to give the rich more money to invest so that everyone would have a good job and more money.

You continue to base your position on this fantasy.

Mitch McConnell told one of his town hall meetings filled with irate constituents that one of the reasons that ObamaCare is a failure is because there are still people in the country without health care insurance.

See if you can spot a flaw in his argument.

He's a neo-con. Assume his arguments are flawed and you'll rarely be wrong.

If anything, the government is always behind the curve writing new regulations and passing new laws for the new innovations that crooks and crooked businesses (since corporations are people now too!) are constantly coming up with. The government therefore has an insufficient number of regulations and laws compared to what is needed at any point in time. However, looking at the entire economy this is a small problem, the vast majority of the economy is regulated well enough and the main problem is enforcement of the existing laws and regulations.

Yes and no. The government is slow to write new regulations but that doesn't mean they have too few. Again and again regulations are de-facto written by industry--and tend to codify the current approach and act in an anti-competitive fashion, not to mention often in a contradictory fashion. (Regulator A: Do <x>. Regulator B: Don't do <x>.) Organize the mess into a coherent whole, weed out the trash and I think we can do with a lot less regulation.

The test of this is if removing more regulations causes more problems than it helps. It's clear that we are close now. Take as example, the inability of anyone here to name a single job killing regulation after what must be going on to three years now. Compare that with the massive amount of damage cause to the world when Alan Greenspan and the other George W. Bush administration appointees decided that the banks and the financial sector had learned to self-regulate and that the Fed and the SEC and the other regulators didn't need to reign them in

Because it's a matter of a death by a thousand cuts. There's no one job killing regulation. For the overall burden, consider a local case: A freeway. The local officials concluded that it would be cheaper and faster to build it ourselves than get federal money to cover much of the cost because that federal money came with so many hooks.

But the biggest problem that we have is with all of innovation in the financial sector, all of the new heavily leveraged derivatives, some so complex that even the people who developed them don't understand them, because they incorporate other people's derivatives that their creators don't fully understand.

And the fix there isn't to try to regulate them, but to regulate leverage, regardless of form.

In today's economy, because we have such large corporations, they have the edge by a long margin negotiating wages with employees. They don't have to pay someone what he is worth or even a percentage of the value that the employee adds to the company.

In most markets if the company doesn't pay enough the worker goes to the competition. Salaries are a lot closer to reality than you think they are.

They don't have to work hard enough for their profits. They have things too easy now. They don't even know what to do with all of the money that they are earning in profits. They pay higher dividends, the rich stockholders get even ricer but they are running out of places to put the money, the stock market is horribly over valued, many times over, by the P/E ratio standards of just a few years.

The companies that were in a good position to exploit the market situation. Many others were destroyed.

Corporations stuff money into offshore banks to avoid paying taxes on it, they hate to pay taxes. The uber-wealthy do the same. The estimates of the amount of these taxes sitting in tax haven banks from the US are in the range of ten to twenty trillion dollars. two companies, Apple and Google combined are estimated to have four trillion dollars off shore.

Yeah, our tax system is fucked up. I think we would be better off with a corporate tax rate of zero.

Also, I am categorically opposed to off-the-books accounting. Minimum wage is a form of off-the-books accounting. Look at the costs fairly, don't push them off into a corner where you can pretend they don't exist. (Thus I favor abolishing the minimum wage but expanding the EITC.)

I don't fully understand what you mean by off the books accounting. It seems to me that if you account for something it is not off the books, if you mean by that it is somehow hidden. But I know that you are categorically opposed to the minimum wage. Although you don't seem to have a full grasp of why, just a collection of talking points that you don't seem to fully understand and can't defend without magic.

Minimum wage is a form of welfare spending, but it's not on the government books because the burden falls on companies. Thus I consider it automatically evil.

You believe that we should drive wages down until they are as low as in any country on earth. You don't seem to feel as if the very lowest paid workers, who often work many jobs, do anything of importance. That they are lowly paid because the markets don't value the work that they do and we readily see this because the markets don't pay them very much. And then a paragraph later you tell us that they should have to compete with the low labor rates overseas. Then someone else tells them if they can't pay for health care, that they don't deserve it. Then you tell them that an education is the way out of poverty but they have to pay for that and if they can't afford it they don't deserve it.

I oppose the EITC, it is better if people have to work for the money needed to live and the EITC is nothing more than a subsidy for low wage jobs and the employers.

The EITC is a form of welfare spending that encourages work. As such it's a good thing.

Also, there is a fundamental difference here--you see companies has having an obligation to the people. Did the companies create the people? Did they encourage the creation of the people? No--so why should they have the responsibility to support them? Welfare is the government's job.

The minimum wage is nothing more than one of the many standards that we impose on businesses for the businesses to be in business. We tell them that they have to clean up their own pollution, to pay taxes for the roads that they use and for the schools that taught their workers and that teach their future workers, we tell them that they can't use child labor, how many hours a week their workers can work, and the conditions that they have maintain for the workers, we tell them that they must sell safe products produced in facilities that are safe for their workers, and on and on. And yet you balk at telling businesses what the minimum wage should be because it is off the book accounting because it pushes labor costs off into a corner where we can pretend the costs don't exist.

The last post for this response

Business has an obligation not to make things worse, but it should not have an obligation to improve things. Regulations should be approached from that standpoint.

Clean up their pollution: Yes. If there was no business there would be no pollution from it.
Taxes for the roads they use: Yes. It's called the gas tax and truck registration fees.
Schools: No. They didn't make the students.
Child labor laws: Yes--no business, no child labor.
Safety: Yes--no business, no harm from unsafe products/conditions.
 
You haven't shown that disaster is the only outcome. You kind of started with that as an unintended assumption due to your ideology, then you keep trying to support it, but the data does not prove it.

Loren Pechtel said:
Harvard Business Review said:
After a decade of downsizing and increasingly intense competition, profitable growth is a tremendous challenge many companies face. Why do some companies achieve sustained high growth in both revenues and profits? In a five-year study of high-growth companies and their less successful competitors, we found that the answer lay in the way each group approached strategy. The difference in approach was not a matter of managers choosing one analytical tool or planning model over another. The difference was in the companies’ fundamental, implicit assumptions about strategy. The less successful companies took a conventional approach: Their strategic thinking was dominated by the idea of staying ahead of the competition. In stark contrast, the high-growth companies paid little attention to matching or beating their rivals. Instead, they sought to make their competitors irrelevant through a strategic logic we call value innovation.
https://hbr.org/2004/07/value-innovation-the-strategic-logic-of-high-growth

You see Loren, life is more complicated than your single-variable ideology. It is complex and multi-variate.

Some businesses do better than others. That has nothing to do with the issue at hand.

Of course it does. Businesses avoid what you call "disaster" by innovation. It happens all the time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Play-Doh

perfectly good example of avoiding disaster via innovation. In case anyone was looking for one.
 
The issue was that your side hasn't established that taking it from business profits will not drop the profit rate too low.
Nor have we tried. It is illogical to seek to prove a negative.

Have YOU established that raising the minimum wage would cause an across-the-board drop in profit margins for every corporation in America? That should be easy enough to prove.

It turns out that 43% of All Americans make less than $15/hour. Assuming an even distribution between 7.50 and 15, and assuming that we for no reason round this up to 50%, and assuming for no reason we assume that all of the 320 million people living in America are part of the work force, then that's 160 million people all getting a pay raise of $3.75 an hour.

$3.75 x 160 million x 40 x 52 = $1.2 trillion in new income for American workers.

Total corporate profits in FIRST QUARTER of 2017 = $1.567 trillion.

So even in this totally unrealistic nationwide minimum wage hike under the worst conditions imaginable, the result would be a 20% reduction in corporate profits in exchange for a 7% increase in GDP per capita. At the same time, the Median income for American workers would increase to about $72,000 per year.

Have you established that American corporations cannot survive a 20% decrease in profits?

Have you established that the increased demand for goods and services implied in a 7% increase in GDP -- and a 15% rise in median income -- is smaller than what is needed to balance the loss of revenue?

Have you established that the minimum wage increase would actually affect ALL industries and not just the ones whose employees make less than $15 an hour?


You're the one with the active position, you need to support it.

Actually, YOU are the one with the active position that raising the minimum wage would cause corporate profits to fall and therefore result in economic disaster. You don't get to demand everyone else prove you wrong when you haven't done anything to back it up except special pleading and generalizations. You can start by answering the questions above and showing your work while you're at it.
 
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