Trump's Russian Laundromat

[Copernicus]

An explosive article in the New Republic exposes Trump's ties to the Russian mob that go back to 1984: Trump's Russian Laundromat. This should have been published a year ago, but there was more concern over Hillary Clinton's email server than the shady background of the Republican candidate for President.

See Brian William's interview with the author of the article: [YOUTUBE]r32CxeWTs1c[/YOUTUBE]

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

So is this the Icarus story of politics. Trump didn't have enough, he needed true respect. So he somehow managed to pull of an outcome that made Leicester City's EPL championship look as likely as Golden State winning the NBA title, but he flew too close to the sun, and he is going to end up in prison. My goodness the only good thing that could come from the last two years... Trump being sent to prison!

 

[Elixir]

So is this the Icarus story of politics. Trump didn't have enough, he needed true respect. So he somehow managed to pull of an outcome that made Leicester City's EPL championship look as likely as Golden State winning the NBA title, but he flew too close to the sun, and he is going to end up in prison. My goodness the only good thing that could come from the last two years... Trump being sent to prison!

Not likely. More likely, he and a bunch of his cronies will get indicted, he will pardon them, resign, and be pardoned by President Mike Pence.
OTOH, he probably won't be able to keep his hands out of the cookie jar, and will end up in prison anyway.

 

[LordKiran]

So is this the Icarus story of politics. Trump didn't have enough, he needed true respect. So he somehow managed to pull of an outcome that made Leicester City's EPL championship look as likely as Golden State winning the NBA title, but he flew too close to the sun, and he is going to end up in prison. My goodness the only good thing that could come from the last two years... Trump being sent to prison!

Not likely. More likely, he and a bunch of his cronies will get indicted, he will pardon them, resign, and be pardoned by President Mike Pence.
OTOH, he probably won't be able to keep his hands out of the cookie jar, and will end up in prison anyway.

It's entirely possible that pence will leave him to the wolves. The reputation of the GOP as a legitimate political movement will likely depend on cutting Mr. 45 loose.

 

[Keith&Co.]

It's entirely possible that pence will leave him to the wolves. The reputation of the GOP as a legitimate political movement will likely depend on cutting Mr. 45 loose.

Yeah, the backlash Ford got for pardoning Nixon should play heavily on Pence's mind. Pardoning Trump will make him an accessory after the fact and make his entire presidency a lame duck. He'd have to have a lot of personal loyalty to The Donald to make that sort of sacrifice for him...

 

[Horatio Parker]

It's entirely possible that pence will leave him to the wolves. The reputation of the GOP as a legitimate political movement will likely depend on cutting Mr. 45 loose.

Yeah, the backlash Ford got for pardoning Nixon should play heavily on Pence's mind. Pardoning Trump will make him an accessory after the fact and make his entire presidency a lame duck. He'd have to have a lot of personal loyalty to The Donald to make that sort of sacrifice for him...

He will cuz..."now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of the party"

 

[Opoponax]

So is this the Icarus story of politics. Trump didn't have enough, he needed true respect. So he somehow managed to pull of an outcome that made Leicester City's EPL championship look as likely as Golden State winning the NBA title, but he flew too close to the sun, and he is going to end up in prison. My goodness the only good thing that could come from the last two years... Trump being sent to prison!

Not likely. More likely, he and a bunch of his cronies will get indicted, he will pardon them, resign, and be pardoned by President Mike Pence.
OTOH, he probably won't be able to keep his hands out of the cookie jar, and will end up in prison anyway.

The bright side is that Trump can be tried and convicted for state crimes, and no pardon exists for that. For example, if Trump broke New York's money laundering laws, he could be tried by the state of New York and there's nothing Pence could do about it.

Happy thoughts!

 

[Copernicus]

I don't know where this is going to end up, but I doubt that Donald Trump will ever see the inside of a jail cell. He might be impeached, if a miracle led to the heavily-gerrymandered House flipping over to the Democrats, but they aren't likely to take the Senate in 2018. The Democrats will need to defend far more seats than the Republicans, and there may be some Democratic senators retiring. Even so, I doubt that the Senate will end up convicting Trump. Pence might be tempted to pardon Trump, given that the spectacle of a trial after impeachment would just lead to more political paralysis.

The problem is that the Democrats needed to win the presidency, and, for whatever reason, they fell short in the electoral college. So we now face a perfect storm of political partisanship. Trump is essentially above the law, just like the Russian oligarchs. He can fire Mueller. His new FBI director might try to work with Congressional Republicans to cover up and whitewash whatever Mueller uncovers. Anything can happen.

Meanwhile, we just learned that Donald Trump had had a second, undisclosed meeting with Vladimir Putin. The only other person in the room at the time was an interpreter supplied by Putin.

Trump and Putin Held a Second, Undisclosed, Private Conversation

And Putin is now demanding that the two compounds seized as part of the sanctions against Russia now be returned or he might retaliate. Trump could use that as an excuse to accede to his demands in order to support his policy of rapprochement with Russia.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/18/world/europe/russia-diplomatic-compounds.html

 

[Copernicus]

Not likely. More likely, he and a bunch of his cronies will get indicted, he will pardon them, resign, and be pardoned by President Mike Pence.
OTOH, he probably won't be able to keep his hands out of the cookie jar, and will end up in prison anyway.

The bright side is that Trump can be tried and convicted for state crimes, and no pardon exists for that. For example, if Trump broke New York's money laundering laws, he could be tried by the state of New York and there's nothing Pence could do about it.

Happy thoughts!

Pence can absolutely pardon Trump for violating the money laundering laws. All he would have to do is claim that the spectacle of a past President on criminal trial would be against the national interest, and an unsurprisingly large number of Americans would agree. Trump still has a 40% approval rating, and that is not likely to go down much further.

 

[Horatio Parker]

Iran-Contra pardons issued by HW Bush:

Caspar W. Weinberger (1988 Several counts of perjury, See Iran-Contra Affair)
Elliott Abrams (1988 Two counts of unlawfully withholding information. See Iran-Contra Affair)
Duane R. Clarridge (1991 Seven counts of perjury and false statements, See Iran-Contra Affair)
Alan D. Fiers (1991 Two misdemeanor counts of withholding information from the Congress, See Iran-Contra Affair)
Clair George
(1991 Ten counts of perjury, false statements and obstruction)
(1992 two felony charges of false statements and perjury before Congress — see Iran-Contra Affair)
Robert C. McFarlane (1988 See Iran-Contra Affair)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_pardoned_by_George_H._W._Bush#Pardoned_5

 

[Opoponax]

The bright side is that Trump can be tried and convicted for state crimes, and no pardon exists for that. For example, if Trump broke New York's money laundering laws, he could be tried by the state of New York and there's nothing Pence could do about it.

Happy thoughts!

Pence can absolutely pardon Trump for violating the money laundering laws. All he would have to do is claim that the spectacle of a past President on criminal trial would be against the national interest, and an unsurprisingly large number of Americans would agree. Trump still has a 40% approval rating, and that is not likely to go down much further.

Trump can only be pardoned for violations of federal law i.e., offenses against the United States.

A President’s clemency power is conferred by Article II, Section 2, Clause 1 of the Constitution of the United States, which says, "The President ... shall have Power to grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offenses against the United States, except in Cases of Impeachment.”

So the President’s authority to grant clemency is limited to federal offenses and offenses prosecuted by the United States Attorney for the District of Columbia in the name of the United States in the D.C. Superior Court.

An offense that violates state law isn't considered an offense against the United States. Otherwise, we could end up in federal court for a speeding ticket.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Pence can absolutely pardon Trump for violating the money laundering laws. All he would have to do is claim that the spectacle of a past President on criminal trial would be against the national interest, and an unsurprisingly large number of Americans would agree. Trump still has a 40% approval rating, and that is not likely to go down much further.

Trump can only be pardoned for violations of federal law i.e., offenses against the United States.

A President’s clemency power is conferred by Article II, Section 2, Clause 1 of the Constitution of the United States, which says, "The President ... shall have Power to grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offenses against the United States, except in Cases of Impeachment.”

So the President’s authority to grant clemency is limited to federal offenses and offenses prosecuted by the United States Attorney for the District of Columbia in the name of the United States in the D.C. Superior Court.

An offense that violates state law isn't considered an offense against the United States. Otherwise, we could end up in federal court for a speeding ticket.

Mueller is running an investigation through the US Justice Department. He isn't allowed to file state charges.

 

[Opoponax]

Trump can only be pardoned for violations of federal law i.e., offenses against the United States.

A President’s clemency power is conferred by Article II, Section 2, Clause 1 of the Constitution of the United States, which says, "The President ... shall have Power to grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offenses against the United States, except in Cases of Impeachment.”

So the President’s authority to grant clemency is limited to federal offenses and offenses prosecuted by the United States Attorney for the District of Columbia in the name of the United States in the D.C. Superior Court.

An offense that violates state law isn't considered an offense against the United States. Otherwise, we could end up in federal court for a speeding ticket.

Mueller is running an investigation through the US Justice Department. He isn't allowed to file state charges.

But upon information and knowledge, a state could file charges against Trump if he violated a state-specific statute. It couldn't be a charge that included a federal crime though. For example, if money laundering for the Russians is a federal crime, and that crime occurred in New York state, it's still a federal crime. However, if the crime is not federal and somehow violative purely of a New York state law, then it's a state crime, and the state could file charges. Granted, what we're looking at in Mueller's investigation are almost all certainly federal crimes, but the specter of state-related crimes for Trump certainly exist.

It's not likely, but I have the Audacity of Hope going for me on this.

 

[Copernicus]

Pence can absolutely pardon Trump for violating the money laundering laws. All he would have to do is claim that the spectacle of a past President on criminal trial would be against the national interest, and an unsurprisingly large number of Americans would agree. Trump still has a 40% approval rating, and that is not likely to go down much further.

Trump can only be pardoned for violations of federal law i.e., offenses against the United States.

A President’s clemency power is conferred by Article II, Section 2, Clause 1 of the Constitution of the United States, which says, "The President ... shall have Power to grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offenses against the United States, except in Cases of Impeachment.”

So the President’s authority to grant clemency is limited to federal offenses and offenses prosecuted by the United States Attorney for the District of Columbia in the name of the United States in the D.C. Superior Court.

An offense that violates state law isn't considered an offense against the United States. Otherwise, we could end up in federal court for a speeding ticket.

I actually did not know that. I thought that the President's power of pardon would trump state laws, so you appear to be right on that. Thanks for pointing that out. However, it would depend on there being a prosecutor at the state level who would be willing to risk the political fallout. I suspect that state politics would play a big role in whether such a case ever made it into court. Most state governments are controlled or heavily influenced by Republicans, who would see no upside to such a prosecution.

 

[Opoponax]

Trump can only be pardoned for violations of federal law i.e., offenses against the United States.

A President’s clemency power is conferred by Article II, Section 2, Clause 1 of the Constitution of the United States, which says, "The President ... shall have Power to grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offenses against the United States, except in Cases of Impeachment.”

So the President’s authority to grant clemency is limited to federal offenses and offenses prosecuted by the United States Attorney for the District of Columbia in the name of the United States in the D.C. Superior Court.

An offense that violates state law isn't considered an offense against the United States. Otherwise, we could end up in federal court for a speeding ticket.

I actually did not know that. I thought that the President's power of pardon would trump state laws, so you appear to be right on that. Thanks for pointing that out. However, it would depend on there being a prosecutor at the state level who would be willing to risk the political fallout. I suspect that state politics would play a big role in whether such a case ever made it into court. Most state governments are controlled or heavily influenced by Republicans, who would see no upside to such a prosecution.

Exactly. Even if it can occur, it's likely that it wouldn't. But just the threat of it being a possibility would be nice. I'm imagining a post-impeachment Trump living in one bedroom house in the middle of Florida, sitting in his boxers in a ratty, 18 year old easy chair covered in cat hair, watching Fox & Friends, and seeing a story about a rumor that State X is considering filing criminal charges against Trump for something. And hopefully it kills him.

 

[blastula]

New York would be the most likely state.

 

[TV and credit cards]

I don't know where this is going to end up

Right under the legislation for new sanctions against Russia.

 

[Malintent]

Not likely. More likely, he and a bunch of his cronies will get indicted, he will pardon them, resign, and be pardoned by President Mike Pence.
OTOH, he probably won't be able to keep his hands out of the cookie jar, and will end up in prison anyway.

The bright side is that Trump can be tried and convicted for state crimes, and no pardon exists for that. For example, if Trump broke New York's money laundering laws, he could be tried by the state of New York and there's nothing Pence could do about it.

Happy thoughts!

Governor Cuomo could / would pardon him for a state crime in NY... Cuomo is mixed up with the mob (specifically, the drug trade), which likely has its revenue tied in some way to the money laundering scheme in the city's real-estate industry... This, in my opinion, is why NY hasn't followed California's framework for recreational or medicinal marijuana, like NY follows EVERY OTHER Californian legislative "experiments"... Cuomo would lose his kickback from the illegal drug trade. Fuck the billion dollar revenue the state would get from taxing it.

 

[whichphilosophy]

To give this line of reasoning feasibility it would be good to link the money trail to show the flow of funds directly from the origination points to final recipients.

Snopes claims these reports are 'mainly false' but more research would be required to verify anything on this.

 

[Elixir]

The bright side is that Trump can be tried and convicted for state crimes, and no pardon exists for that. For example, if Trump broke New York's money laundering laws, he could be tried by the state of New York and there's nothing Pence could do about it.

Happy thoughts!

Governor Cuomo could / would pardon him for a state crime in NY... Cuomo is mixed up with the mob (specifically, the drug trade), which likely has its revenue tied in some way to the money laundering scheme in the city's real-estate industry... This, in my opinion, is why NY hasn't followed California's framework for recreational or medicinal marijuana, like NY follows EVERY OTHER Californian legislative "experiments"... Cuomo would lose his kickback from the illegal drug trade. Fuck the billion dollar revenue the state would get from taxing it.

The source of Cheato's confidence is twofold:
1) Narcissists never consider that they might be woefully unequipped to deal with the repercussions of their own actions.
2) The list of his co-conspirators include a lot of pow'ful people who he thinks will protect him, and he believes he can simply fire anyone who doesn't.