Climatologist says Arctic Carbon Release could mean “We're Fucked”

[dystopian]

Correct me if am wrong but all methane from permafrost is equivalent to 40% increase of CO2.

Conveniently forgetting that that's just the methane from the *permafrost* (incidentally, it's not like we have exact numbers for how much is under there, it could be many times more than what we think); whereas the article is talking about that which exists under the *seabed*.

 

[dystopian]

The permafrost already holds vast stores of carbon, as much as 1.7 trillion metric tons according to estimates—or more than twice as much as is currently in the atmosphere today. Not all of that will thaw in the near future—some areas of permafrost extend 700 meters deep—but as much as 120 billion metric tons could be released by 2100. That's enough to raise global average temperatures by nearly a third of a degree Celsius. "These are big numbers," Schaefer notes. But "they are in fact small when compared to those projected from burning coal and oil and natural gas. Those emissions are just immense."

Kinda deflate the whole scare, don't you think?

From the same article;

The computer models that deliver these estimates of how much of that carbon might come out assume a gradual thaw of the permafrost. That prediction could prove erroneous, based on observations to date. Already, thawing processes like slumps and lakes are happening faster and affecting larger regions than expected. As Grosse puts it: "we might be very conservative in our estimate."

Kind of reinflates it, don't you think?

 

[barbos]

Correct me if am wrong but all methane from permafrost is equivalent to 40% increase of CO2.

Conveniently forgetting that that's just the methane from the *permafrost* (incidentally, it's not like we have exact numbers for how much is under there, it could be many times more than what we think); whereas the article is talking about that which exists under the *seabed*.

Conveniently taking your fantasies as fact.
Fact is, according to current science there is no reason whatsoever for alarm about permafrost.

 

[barbos]

Kinda deflate the whole scare, don't you think?

From the same article;

The computer models that deliver these estimates of how much of that carbon might come out assume a gradual thaw of the permafrost. That prediction could prove erroneous, based on observations to date. Already, thawing processes like slumps and lakes are happening faster and affecting larger regions than expected. As Grosse puts it: "we might be very conservative in our estimate."

Kind of reinflates it, don't you think?

Nope, not even close. The fact is, most of the warming is and will be linked to burning coal and other fuels like oil and gas.
Methane is not a significant factor.

 

[dystopian]

Conveniently forgetting that that's just the methane from the *permafrost* (incidentally, it's not like we have exact numbers for how much is under there, it could be many times more than what we think); whereas the article is talking about that which exists under the *seabed*.

Conveniently taking your fantasies as fact.

Uhm, it *is* a fact that the linked article was talking about sub-seabed methane, not permafrost; are you seriously disputing that? It is similarly a fact that we do not actually have an exact figure on how much methane is beneath the permafrost either and that means that yes, it *could* be more than we think. Not only is it a *fact* that uncertainty exists, it is downright absurd to refer to me pointing that out as a 'fantasy'.

Fact is, according to current science there is no reason whatsoever for alarm about permafrost.

Depends on how you define alarm, I suppose.

Nope, not even close. The fact is, most of the warming is and will be linked to burning coal and other fuels like oil and gas.
Methane is not a significant factor.

...right, it isn't *yet* a significant factor. The whole point of these findings is to show that it COULD become a significant factor. You seem to be engaging in obfuscation tactics very similar to the ones you've employed in the various Ukraine threads.

 

[Malintent]

Literary trope, barbos.

I don't think so. They claim sounds as if members of their expedition really felt the smell.
They may have smelt something but it was not methane.

Methane does not exist naturally in a purified (oderless) form. It is created by decomposing vegitation (that was once frozen under feet of ice, but now exposed). The mixture of gasses released from the ground has an odor. bigtime.

But if you insist that methane has no odor, please tell my wife that she has been simply imagining odors eminating from me.

 

[barbos]

...right, it isn't *yet* a significant factor. The whole point of these findings is to show that it COULD become a significant factor. You seem to be engaging in obfuscation tactics very similar to the ones you've employed in the various Ukraine threads.

Is that what it is? You lost in in the Ukraine thread and desperately run around and comment my posts elsewhere?
No, the whole point is that amount of methane is tiny compared to CO2 and that "we're fucked" is a great exaggeration on the part of some climatologists which is not supported by their own data.

 

[barbos]

I don't think so. They claim sounds as if members of their expedition really felt the smell.
They may have smelt something but it was not methane.

Methane does not exist naturally in a purified (oderless) form. It is created by decomposing vegitation (that was once frozen under feet of ice, but now exposed). The mixture of gasses released from the ground has an odor. bigtime.

But if you insist that methane has no odor, please tell my wife that she has been simply imagining odors eminating from me.

Is your wife a climatologist?

 

[bleubird]

Are you a climatologist?

 

[barbos]

Are you a climatologist?

No, but I play one on TV

 

[none]

Are you a climatologist?

No, but I play one on TV

who farted?

 

[dystopian]

Is that what it is? You lost in in the Ukraine thread and desperately run around and comment my posts elsewhere?

 

[Malintent]

Methane does not exist naturally in a purified (oderless) form. It is created by decomposing vegitation (that was once frozen under feet of ice, but now exposed). The mixture of gasses released from the ground has an odor. bigtime.

But if you insist that methane has no odor, please tell my wife that she has been simply imagining odors eminating from me.

Is your wife a climatologist?

No. But I watched one on TV discuss this from somewhere in the artic region where the vegitation was showing through the melt and a nearby lake (or artic ocean?) was bubbling. They commented on the danger of low oxygen levels and also the odor.

- - - Updated - - -

No, but I play one on TV

who farted?

millions of domesticated cattle was one thing... but now the artic regions are farting too... and it may be a problem.

 

[fromderinside]

Just a speculation. But that hypothesized volcanic Siberian event about 300 million years ago may have included permafrost cratering as a large component. Related story: Scientists may have cracked the giaint Siberian rater mystery - and the news isn't good. http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...berian-crater-mystery-and-the-news-isnt-good/

 

[repoman]

Guys, let's have some perspective on what our current situation actually means in the long stretch of time.

The last time that there was a ~400 ppm level of CO2 (~3 million years ago) the sea level was about 25 meters(!) higher than now.

Also since that time the tundra in Russia and Canada have built up very large amounts of carbon (not existing 3 million years ago) that will absolutely push the level of CO2 well beyond 400 ppm even if all industry stopped now.

The shallow arctic sea bed methane hydrates WILL all be released as the temperature increases in the next few centuries. The deep water hydrates at lower latitudes will take a lot more work to release.

The worry about low oxygen levels in the article is that this means that bacteria will produce methane instead of carbon dioxide. The current and potential methane reservoirs are two different things.

-----------------------------------------------

ETA: I guess that for a scientist to talk about how we already have 25+ meters of sea level rise baked in the cake for our distant (or maybe not so distant) ancestors will be used against the cause. It was very hard for me to wrap my head around this fact, and I am about the best situated mentally compared to most - I spent the time researching, am godless, no kids so not sentimental about them and so on. I still felt woozy when the realization hit me.

Good website with interactive sea level rise http://geology.com/sea-level-rise/ interesting to see what will happen to Seattle eventually.

 

[barbos]

Just a speculation. But that hypothesized volcanic Siberian event about 300 million years ago may have included permafrost cratering as a large component. Related story: Scientists may have cracked the giaint Siberian rater mystery - and the news isn't good. http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...berian-crater-mystery-and-the-news-isnt-good/

300 million years ago there were hardly any todays land plants if any.
Everything was different 300 millions years ago.

 

[repoman]

how about 3 million years ago?

 

[barbos]

And once again, according to "We are fucked" guy's own data amount of methane in permafrost and temperature increase is pretty small compared CO2 from burning.
So "We are fucked" does not follow from anything.

 

[crispy]

Anyone know anything about the rest of the area? I just looked the area up and it looks to me like its happening all the time (all the small lakes): https://www.google.com/maps/search/crater+yamal/@69.531534,70.2725788,24804m/data=!3m1!1e3

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Guys, let's have some perspective on what our current situation actually means in the long stretch of time.

The last time that there was a ~400 ppm level of CO2 (~3 million years ago) the sea level was about 25 meters(!) higher than now.

Also since that time the tundra in Russia and Canada have built up very large amounts of carbon (not existing 3 million years ago) that will absolutely push the level of CO2 well beyond 400 ppm even if all industry stopped now.

The shallow arctic sea bed methane hydrates WILL all be released as the temperature increases in the next few centuries. The deep water hydrates at lower latitudes will take a lot more work to release.

I have seen an estimate of +15C if all the methane hydrates let go, although this hasn't been studied nearly as well as one would like. An awful lot of the areas that are going to flood would become basically uninhabitable anyway. (A human being can not survive sustained exposure to a wet bulb temperature above 95F.)

- - - Updated - - -

Just a speculation. But that hypothesized volcanic Siberian event about 300 million years ago may have included permafrost cratering as a large component. Related story: Scientists may have cracked the giaint Siberian rater mystery - and the news isn't good. http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...berian-crater-mystery-and-the-news-isnt-good/

300 million years ago there were hardly any todays land plants if any.
Everything was different 300 millions years ago.

We are talking about the effects of the gases on the atmosphere, not the plants that are around.