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Trump 2024?

GOP hopefuls crank up the ‘if-Trump-doesn’t-run’ primary - POLITICO - "For potential candidates, there is little choice but to prepare as though they are running and Trump isn’t — and then watch it all evaporate if he does."
Mike Pompeo and Rick Scott are headed to Iowa this week and next, followed by Tim Scott in mid-April. Mike Pence plans to visit the early primary state of South Carolina, while Ron DeSantis appears to be conducting a soft launch in his home state of Florida.

Jeff Kaufmann, chair of the Iowa Republican Party, said he’s never seen so much interest so early in a presidential election cycle.

“Iowa’s going to be hopping,” Kaufmann said.
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Before Trump, the last President to run for a second term and lose was George Bush I. He lost in 1992 to Bill Clinton, and he did not run again in 1996.

Before that, Jerry Ford considered running again in 1980. He lost in 1976 to Jimmy Carter, and he decided against running again.

Who is showing interest in which early-primary state:
  • IA: Mike Pompeo, Rick Scott, Tim Scott
  • NH: Tom Cotton
  • SC: Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, Ron DeSantis, Marco Rubio
The former president told Fox News last week that he won’t decide if he'll run for president again until after the midterm elections next year, which doesn’t leave much time for lesser known candidates to establish their brand and name identification within the party. And although that delay will not preclude early state visits from other potential candidates, it will limit their ability to hire staff if the uncertainty drags on.

...
Even if Trump does run, the candidates who are forced to step aside may find value in the exercise anyway. Pence is only 61. Pompeo and Tim Scott are in their 50s. DeSantis, Cotton, Haley, and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem are even younger, in their 40s.

“A lot of these people have 20 years of potential viability for running for president,” Kaufmann said.
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Political historian says Trump has too much baggage to run again | Miami Herald

He's Allan Lichtman of  The Keys to the White House

It's too early to say for the Biden Admin, but AL is likely right that Trump won't run again. That is because he is loaded down with legal and financial problems. But AL thinks that Joe Biden might run again, despite being 82 years old. If JB doesn't run, then his VP, Kamala Harris, likely will.
Indeed, Trump faces at least 29 civil and criminal lawsuits against him or his properties, according to a Washington Post count. They range from a massive probe by the New York district attorney into Trump’s finances to claims that he instigated the Jan. 6 attack on Congress — plus defamation suits from women who allege he sexually assaulted them.

Worse for Trump is that, “He’s got $400 million-plus in loans coming due. His brand is failing. His businesses are failing. He has a huge IRS audit. He doesn’t hold office anymore. He’s lost his Twitter feed,” Lichtman told me. That’s a lot of baggage for somebody to run for president, he added.
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Insane narcissists like Trump think only of satisfying their own egos.

The pain of losing was severe for Trump. He clearly went into a state of depression.

The fear of losing will keep Trump from actually running again but his ego needs constant attention so he may pretend.
 
In my opinion, people who think that Trump won't run again, on the grounds that it would make no sense for him to do so, profoundly misunderstand this man. He delights in doing things that make no goddamned sense. He's already signalled his intent to run, and if he's still breathing and not-arrested in 2022, he will. He doesn't even sleep by all accounts, just watches the conservative news obsessively into the night. He will not be able to stand the sight of other Republicans on the debate stage without him, especially if any of them are women. If any of his neo-Nazi news agencies start crowning anyone else as the "new Trump', it will drive him utterly mad. He will not let that happen while he has any capacity to fight it. HE is the Republican Party, no one else. No pretenders and losers in his house, no way.

Our best hope as a nation is for a timely heart attack. I'm not saying I want him to die or be severely disabled, just that our democracy might depend on it.
 
Our best hope as a nation is for a timely heart attack. I'm not saying I want him to die or be severely disabled, just that our democracy might depend on it.
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Wasn't it you who described having staunch conservative Christian relatives who both voted for Trump and prayed for him to die and give us President Pence?

Tom
 
TomC said:
Our best hope as a nation is for a timely heart attack. I'm not saying I want him to die or be severely disabled, just that our democracy might depend on it.
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Wasn't it you who described having staunch conservative Christian relatives who both voted for Trump and prayed for him to die and give us President Pence?

Tom
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I'm certain they wouldn't count me as a relative, but yes. And they are residents of Macomb County, Michigan, a notorious bellwether district for the mood of the whole Rust Belt.

There is the question of whether the country would actually vote for Trump. In the sense of him literally winning the election I don't think he would. But I also think that the chaos of yet another Trump-dominated primary would only be dangeorous for our national wellbeing, regardless. When everyone is obsessing over Trump's latest antics, little else is getting done or discussed. The Republicans are a lost cause, which means we need the Democrats to actually govern the nation. They can't just be the anti-Trump party for another two years.
 
Politesse said:
In my opinion, people who think that Trump won't run again, on the grounds that it would make no sense for him to do so, profoundly misunderstand this man. He delights in doing things that make no goddamned sense. He's already signalled his intent to run, and if he's still breathing and not-arrested in 2022, he will. He doesn't even sleep by all accounts, just watches the conservative news obsessively into the night. He will not be able to stand the sight of other Republicans on the debate stage without him, especially if any of them are women. If any of his neo-Nazi news agencies start crowning anyone else as the "new Trump', it will drive him utterly mad. He will not let that happen while he has any capacity to fight it. HE is the Republican Party, no one else. No pretenders and losers in his house, no way.

Our best hope as a nation is for a timely heart attack. I'm not saying I want him to die or be severely disabled, just that our democracy might depend on it.
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He will harden his support with his strongest fans but many people will not want to see him again.

He will not gain many voters. And he is damaged goods. Impeached twice. Many think he incited violence.

Like in 2020 his opposition will be more energized and widespread than his support no matter who he runs against. Hillary had huge negatives. That helped Trump but now and forever he is the one with huge negatives.
 
I do know one thing. For his next campaign, serious or not, TV networks, ad companies, and rally venues are very likely to demand the money up front. All the money.

Which actually will play very well with his base. They see 10x as many Democrat ads and 5x as many non-Trump-republican ads as Florida Man commercials, they'll tell each other The MSM is a-feared of The Chosen One, and blocking him, rather than accept that his pockets are no longer bottomless....
 
The Colourful Jester said:
Any idea who DTs next vice president would be? No chance would be give the job to Pence again.
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Nikki Haley will be the V.P. nominee (unless she's the Prez nominee). The Rs will hope to appeal to women who might otherwise go with Kamala Harris, and prove that the GOP has respect for ethnic deviations.

This might require Haley to turn against her own principles again and resume sucking Trump's cock, but that will be no problem for her.
 
I expect a Trump/Trump ticket.

He won't pick anyone he perceives as a threat to his power. Pence fit that criteria when he was picked, as he was on a downward trajectory politically. Pence was also picked to shore up the evangelical base, but I don't think Trump cares about that any more, the evangelicals have shown their true colors, and they will vote for the Anointed Trump no matter who he picks. Now more than ever, he needs someone who is loyal to a fault, and as legal issues mount for him, that circle of loyalists is going to shrink. Many who would swear fealty in private would quickly stab him in the back for their own political benefit. Finally, if he gets back into office, I don't think he will intend to leave. As incompetent as he is, if he is given a second chance at a coup to stay in power, he will be more prepared, and he will want to groom one of his children as his Imperial successor.

So he will pick either Don Jr., or Ivanka. My money is on Ivanka. After he has himself installed as Emperor, I will also put money on his having Jared executed as an "Enemy of The People, and totally not because he is a Jew", and then converting to Mormonism just so he can marry Ivanka.

I am working on the novelization of the above narrative as we speak, it seems to be angling toward the survival horror genre.
 
KeepTalking said:
I am working on the novelization of the above narrative as we speak, it seems to be angling toward the survival horror genre.
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Depends on the point of view of the narration.
Do we follow the trials of a white house press corps reporter trying to make sense of it all as the flames rise, or a British political cartoonist flipping coins to see what topic to draw today.

Or a Mormon survivalist who has been preaching this exact doctrine since his second daughter made the cheerleader squad, and now takes the MyPillow guy's place on the podium?
 
Keith&Co. said:
KeepTalking said:
I am working on the novelization of the above narrative as we speak, it seems to be angling toward the survival horror genre.
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Depends on the point of view of the narration.
Do we follow the trials of a white house press corps reporter trying to make sense of it all as the flames rise, or a British political cartoonist flipping coins to see what topic to draw today.

Or a Mormon survivalist who has been preaching this exact doctrine since his second daughter made the cheerleader squad, and now takes the MyPillow guy's place on the podium?
Click to expand...

Oooh, the Mormon perspective might be a good one. They would likely see it as end times fantasy erotica, and it would sell like hotcakes in Utah.
 
Trump just admitted on Fox & Friends that his mismanagement of covid led to uncountable American deaths.

And it's April 1st, all day long.
 
Now might be a good time to start a 2-part pool:

1) Will Trump run again? (Y/N)
2) When will he announce (either way)?
 
Elixir said:
Now might be a good time to start a 2-part pool:

1) Will Trump run again? (Y/N)
2) When will he announce (either way)?
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1) I would guess N, but I think it is very dependent upon how the Rs perform in 2022.

2) Never, if as I suspect the Rs lose badly in 2022, and in that case he will keep stringing his base along, hinting that he might run in 2028. If they manage to win he will announce his candidacy as soon as that outcome is clear.
 
jab said:
The Colourful Jester said:
Any idea who DTs next vice president would be? No chance would be give the job to Pence again.
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Ivanka, perhaps.
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Doubtful. If Trump becomes President again (and sadly, there is a non-zero chance of that), Melania won't be First Lady. We all know who's gonna fulfil that role. My guess would be Gaetz. Considering how compromised he is now, he would never dare commit treason like Pence did on Jan 6.
 
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