But the Christ belief is superior to the others, e.g., the Muslim belief.
The problem is, [Pascal's Wager] assumes there's only one religion.
Whatever. It's irrelevant. Everybody knows there's more than one religion. So, what's the point?
E.g., that there may or may not be a life after death, a Heaven or Hell, does not assume there is only one religion. . . . We just don't know if there is or not. To say that there might be, and it might even matter what we think about it or what we do, etc., does not necessarily assume there's only one religion.
Yes, it does. Because it only allows a man to be virtuous, or not to be virtuous. But if there are two standards of virtue, then we cannot reduce it to two possibilities.
What does "to be virtuous" have to do with anything?
I'm saying I think Christ offers us a way to "eternal life" or escape from annihilation at death, or something more, beyond death. The evidence of this is the power he showed.
This has nothing to do with being virtuous or about any standard of virtue, nor does it mean there's "only one religion."
And that's the point of the wager.
But "the wager" is not the point of anything. Whether Pascal made a logical error is irrelevant. I am making no logical error by just saying: Christ offers us a way to escape annihilation at death, and "Hell" if there is any such thing. But we don't know if there is a Hell. If there is something more, a desirable or good outcome after death vs. a "Hell" of some kind, we gain that good alternative by believing in Christ, and that's all that's required.
You don't refute this by declaring that it's the same as Pascal's Wager and so must be incorrect because someone proved that anything that smells like Pascal's Wager has to be wrong. You have to address the point I'm proposing and forget what you were told about Pascal's Wager.
My proposition says nothing about there being "only one religion" or about any "standard of virtue" or about being virtuous.
There are two possibilities, God exists and rewards virtue, or God does not exist. There are two choices, the seeker can live a virtuous life or the seeker can choose not to.
The only way to 'win' is for there to be a god and live a virtuous life for the reward.
The only way to 'lose' is for there to be a god and to not live for virtue.
I'm saying none of this. Again, I'm saying I don't know if there's a "Heaven" or "Hell," but there might be something more beyond death, such as "eternal life," and there's good reason to believe that Christ offers us this Life, or escape from being annihilated at death. But it's only by believing in him and not by anything to do with virtue.
You're not pointing out any logical error in this by presenting this "Pascal's Wager" scheme and shooting it down, which is irrelevant to anything I'm proposing. Just because there's the doubt element -- I don't know for sure if there's something beyond death -- doesn't mean I'm saying the same thing Pascal said. I believe there might be, but there's doubt about it. Just because someone has doubt about something doesn't mean they're committing Pascal's fallacy.
But if there are two or more religions, then there are more ways to lose.
Assuming "to lose" means to end up in Hell, and assuming there is a Hell, then one escapes this by believing in Christ, so there's only one way to lose, which is to not believe in Christ. Now I know you're saying there are other belief systems which say something different than this, and maybe offer some other kind of choice.
But if you don't take any of them seriously, and I don't either, then why are we talking about them? I'm giving reasons why I think Christ has this power, to grant eternal life. If there are also some other proposed routes to "Heaven," then let them give their reasons. Christ showed that he had life-giving power. There is no logical flaw in believing this, based on the evidence he provided, even though at the same time there is doubt, or uncertainty. The existence of millions of religions that say something different doesn't automatically refute what I'm suggesting here. What do they say that refutes the point I'm making?
That there are "two or more religions" is irrelevant, unless you present one of them and show how their belief refutes mine and also is more logical or more consistent with some facts that are known. Just because an alternative belief system exists doesn't prove that this or that particular belief must be false or illogical or flawed.
You can be virtuous, say you closely follow the Koran, and still end up in Hell if the Koran is not accurate.
So, we should be considering what is "accurate" or what the truth is, or what it likely is, and not arguing that one's belief must be false if it is contradicted by some other belief. The existence of extra "religions" or beliefs doesn't prove that all of them are false. Some beliefs may hold up under scrutiny and others not.
This P.W. kind of argument is really much like agnosticism.
No, it's not even close. Agnosticism would have to say that islam is as likely as Christianity.
No, it only has to say we don't know. Or rather, the agnostic doesn't know. One belief may be more likely than another, but we still don't know for sure. It is reasonable to believe without knowing for sure. I.e., if there are good reasons for the belief. Good reasons don't prove it's true, only that it's more likely.
Agnosticism means not knowing. It doesn't preclude having a belief plus also doubting at the same time. It doesn't preclude saying one belief is more likely than another to be true.
And each sect of each faith is as likely as every other sect. Even those that contradict each other.
No, agnosticism need not say any such thing. All it says is that we don't know. It's still possible to judge that one faith or sect is more likely true than the other. An agnostic need not brand them as all equally likely or unlikely.
One can be an agnostic and still consider the possibility of there being some form of Heaven or Hell or Something More.
Sure. But Pascal's Wager does fuck-all to help trim down the possibilities. It starts by assuming those have already been dispensed with.
Perhaps. But if believer #1 presents his belief and suggests that it's the truth, i.e., likely the truth, though there's doubt, and there's also believers #2 and #3 who believe something contrary, it does not follow that believer #1 must be wrong until he first disproves believers #2 and #3. Rather, if he presents his belief and his reasons, then it's up to #2 and #3 to come forth and tell why their beliefs are better than #1's beliefs.
A legitimate question would be: If there is something beyond this life, how do we know anything about it, or which of the many beliefs about it is more likely correct? The inquiry cannot be dismissed simply because it resembles Pascal's Wager.
No, it does NOT resemble Pascal's Wager.
It implicitly lists 'many beliefs.' PW does not do that, it assumes only one.
No, PW does not implicitly assume only one. It leaves open the possibility of others, but perhaps believes those others are less reasonable, or that they have been refuted, or that they haven't made a good case. Or just assumes there are no others but is prepared to deal with those alternate beliefs if and when they present themselves for consideration.
Those who believe they're right have to be willing to entertain the possibility of contrary beliefs which also claim to be right. But they don't have to seek out these contrary beliefs and refute them all before being entitled to claim they have the truth. Rather, those who hold those contrary beliefs have to step forward and present their beliefs or make their case.
If those contrary believers don't make their case, then the PW arguer is entitled to ignore them and consider his belief as the correct one to choose, or as the only alternative. His belief is not refuted by the mere existence of those other beliefs.
The agnostic does not preclude the possibility that this or that belief might be true. One or more of those beliefs could be true while others are false.
Sure. But if you have a means of determining which one is (or could be) true, then you don't need the Wager.
Well then let's just leave it at that -- We don't need the "Wager" -- forget it. I don't need it, haven't needed it, you don't need it. Nobody needs it, so why are we talking about it?
I have stated the "means of determining which one is (or could be) true" and so don't need "the Wager." The life-giving power that Christ demonstrated is the reason or "means of determining" what the truth is, and if some other belief is contrary to this, then someone needs to present that contrary belief. It's not up to me to present all the beliefs that are contrary to mine and first refute them all scientifically before my belief is legitimate.
And this "means of determining" the truth is still not an absolute certainty, because there is doubt, and the reasoning is that of a good possibility, or stronger possibility than any other scenario that has been presented by anyone, and so this "best possibility" principle is the basis of the belief I'm proposing.
Many religions that humans practice DO hurt if you join the wrong one.
No, not really. Most of them that are dogmatic or exclusivist do not teach that if you join the wrong one it makes you worse off.
So, no one teaches that heretics, apostates, followers of false prophets are going to Hell?
The most dogmatic ones teach that you have to join their religion to avoid Hell. So it's being outside their religion that sends people to Hell, not being "heretics, apostates, followers of false prophets . . ." So, even if one stops being a heretic or apostate or follower of false prophets, one still goes to Hell unless one joins their religion.
I.e., they do not teach that being a heretic or apostate or follower of false prophets makes you worse off than you would be otherwise. If it leads you away from The Truth of their religion, then maybe you're made worse off. But it's not being in the wrong religion that damns you, but rather, failure to be in their one True Religion.
The reality today is that most religionists of any denomination believe a person is better off, or more pleasing to God, or closer to salvation, if they practice some kind of religion, even if it's not theirs. So, a Mormon or Catholic or Methodist believes you're closer to the Truth or closer to God if you are a Baptist than if you're an atheist. They say you're better off if you at least "believe in God" even if you don't believe the same way they do. Most Muslims also think this way. The militant fanatic Shi'ites and militant fanatic Sunnis who condemn the others as Hell-bound or whatever are only a small fraction of all Muslims.
So it is basically not true that they condemn to Hell the "apostates" etc. who believe differently than they do.
Catholics don't teach that Muslims, Mormons and Satanists are going to Hell?
Maybe Satanists. But they don't teach that Muslims and Mormons all go to Hell. No, Catholics teach that it's good to be religious, no matter which religion you belong to. If you "believe in God" but you're in the "wrong" religion, that membership in a different religion doesn't increase your chances of going to Hell. Rather, they believe a non-Catholic who has NO religion is more likely to go to Hell than a non-Catholic who practices some religion, even though it's a non-Catholic religion.
If i choose to be a Mormon, and the Catholics are right, i'm not going to Heaven.
Not necessarily. Making this choice does not mean you're excluded from Heaven. Your insistence that every religion is exclusivist is your caricature of them. You're using this false caricature of them in order to create your argument for bashing Pascal's Wager. It falls flat. The premise you're propping up is nonsensical and petty.
If i choose to be Muslim, and the Mormons are right, I'm not going to Win the wager.
Perhaps. But maybe the Mormons ARE "right" -- it depends on what your phrase "and the Mormons are right" means. You are wrong on this point (about what happens to Muslims if "the Mormons are right") unless you state what Mormons believe about this.
So, what do Mormons believe that would condemn all Muslims? It's interesting that you speak vaguely about what some religion teaches but don't really say what they teach. You have no argument as long as you persist in this vagueness. Rather, you must state specifically WHAT they believe before hypothesizing what it means if they "are right."
So, to give some substance to your if-Mormons-are-right hypothesis, I'll propose what it is Mormons believe, and unless you present (or someone else presents) something different, let's take the following as accurately representing their belief:
Jesus Christ is the Son of God who came to save humans from their sins and we can get to Heaven or be "saved" by believing in him.
That's it -- that's the basics. They teach that in a basic introduction to Mormonism. All the rest is extra symbolism added on to that simple formula. I learned this at a class on Mormonism I attended. Even though there's much more, this is the starting point, or foundation.
So I will use this to address your claim that "If I choose to be Muslim, and the Mormons are right, I'm not going to Win the wager" -- meaning you will end up in Hell, or at least be excluded from eternal life.
This may be a correct statement of what Mormons believe, generally, although even a Muslim might "believe in Christ" because they do believe Christ had power, shown in the miracle acts, which they believe happened, so some of them might actually think they could gain salvation as a result of this power Christ showed.
So even a few Muslims might "win the wager" under Mormon teaching that you can be saved if you believe in Christ. But all those Muslims who do NOT believe in Christ will be lost.
On this point the Mormon belief is based on evidence, i.e., on the power Christ demonstrated in his miracle acts. So it is not an equal belief with the Muslim belief, but is superior to that belief, which is based on NO evidence. There is no reason to believe that we can be saved by praying to Mecca and the other rules that Muslims require. Mohammed had nothing to show in the way of evidence of any power, such as the power demonstrated by Christ. A belief which is supported by evidence is superior/not equal to one that has no evidence.
So these are not equal beliefs -- one just as good as the other. There are not 2 equal religions here, but rather, one which is superior and has a basis for its fundamental teaching (leaving aside all the extra stuff), whereas the other has no evidence but only private revelations to the Prophet Mohammed. The Mormon belief is based on the public evidence shown by Christ, while the private revelations to Joseph Smith are not part of the basic salvation teaching.
(Someone will correct the above if it is not a correct statement of Mormon teaching.)
So your simplistic premise that every religion condemns every other as Hell-bound, and that they're all equal, equally wrong or right and there's no reasoning that supports any one of them above another, is all wrong, and so your crusade against Pascal's Wager bites the dust, being based on this false premise.
If i choose to worship the 3-in-1 god of most Christains, the Muslims say i'm a pagan and going to Hell.
Possibly. Though I think you are mischaracterizing what all these religions teach. I've heard a Muslim teacher (imam?) say that Christians are saved by Allah if they meet certain conditions without converting, so your insistence to make every religion exclusionary is artificial.
But let's say you're right and that the Muslim belief is that Christians are going to Hell. I've pointed out that the Muslim belief is inferior because they have no evidence. These are not 2 equal belief systems, because the Christian belief is based on evidence which was demonstrated by Christ.
So the two different beliefs do not cancel each other out, as if one belief is as good as another -- so scrap them all. No, they are not equal. So the PW flaw does not exist here. Because there is evidence to support the Christian belief but no evidence to support the Muslim belief.
Your repeated PW fallacy claim is based entirely on the premise that all beliefs are equal, with none having any reasonable claim of superiority to the others. Remove that premise and your basic PW refutation is refuted. The evidence for Christ belief makes your premise false by showing that all the beliefs are not equal.
But in each case, the wager will tell me that i'm a virtuous man, and i've won.
Again, it has nothing to do with "virtuous" anything. The Christ belief is supported by evidence, while any contrary beliefs are not. So they're not equal and there is no basic PW-type flaw being committed.
You must present a case showing that other contrary beliefs are just as likely to be true, or are supported as much by evidence, as the Christ belief is.
Your argument against Pascal's Wager can hold up if it's used against one whose belief has no evidence for it, or no case to show that it is a logically-superior belief to the other beliefs that contradict it. A PW argument for that kind of belief is flawed for the reason you're giving, because "all the beliefs are equal and so just cancel each other out -- no more reason to prefer this belief to that." But the Christ belief is not that kind of belief, but rather is logically superior to any contrary beliefs, because there is evidence for it. Even though, like Pascal, the believer admits some doubt or uncertainty.
Doubt or uncertainty is not disproof. There can be good reason to believe, while at the same time there is doubt. Evidence makes the belief stronger, or more likely to be true, but doesn't necessarily remove all the doubt.