Will we make contact with an extra-terrestrial life-form before life ends on earth?

[rousseau]

What do you think?

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Somebody must have taken a wild stab at the probability of this happening..

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Strange criteria--barring catastrophe life will continue on Earth for something like a billion years. That doesn't mean we will be around, though, nor does the end of life on Earth mean we won't be around.

While we are still on Earth it's very unlikely we will make contact with any ETs and if we do it will be a *VERY* ill omen as it means there's a virtual certainty that we will soon be gone.

If we make it to the stars it's even more unlikely we will find any ETs out there.

 

[rousseau]

Strange criteria--barring catastrophe life will continue on Earth for something like a billion years. That doesn't mean we will be around, though, nor does the end of life on Earth mean we won't be around.

While we are still on Earth it's very unlikely we will make contact with any ETs and if we do it will be a *VERY* ill omen as it means there's a virtual certainty that we will soon be gone.

If we make it to the stars it's even more unlikely we will find any ETs out there.

The question would be: will life in some form on earth make contact with life in some form on another planet. Even if the species that makes contact isn't human, presumably we'd be a distant ancestor.

Whether we might exist on another planet after life ends on earth brings an interesting component to the question.

 

[Elixir]

I think not. Distances are too vast, and to any entity that has solved that problem we are probably too uninteresting.

 

[rousseau]

According to sources, the universe is 13.8 billion years old. Human beings have had modern technology for, give or take, 100 years. Even if we assume there has been another species in the range we can detect that is sending out detectable signals, the odds of that happening during the same time period is about 0.0000000009%. If you add the probability that life evolves in that range at all, let alone intelligent life, the probability becomes astronomically (no pun intended) low. To me the whole thing seems like a pipe dream.

But then.. we'll never know if we don't try.

 

[Elixir]

According to sources, the universe is 13.8 billion years old. Human beings have had modern technology for, give or take, 100 years. Even if we assume there has been another species in the range we can detect that is sending out detectable signals, the odds of that happening during the same time period is about 0.0000000009%. If you add the probability that life evolves in that range at all, let alone intelligent life, the probability becomes astronomically (no pun intended) low. To me the whole thing seems like a pipe dream.

But then.. we'll never know if we don't try.

Give my record on these kinds of things, there are probably intelligent beings on Enceladus trying their best not to be discovered by their bumbling neighbors on that little blue inner planet.

 

[KeepTalking]

Depends on what you mean by 'contact'.

I am relatively certain that we will find extra-terrestrial life, at least in the form of microbes, before the human race dies out. I think that we will also contact them physically, sooner or later. The chances of finding intelligent ETs, and communicating with them in the same time frame, however, seems vanishingly small. I would never rule it out, though.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I think not. Distances are too vast, and to any entity that has solved that problem we are probably too uninteresting.

I disagree--the thing is life won't remain confined to Earth.

Even with very pessimistic estimates an intelligent species can colonize the galaxy in tens of millions of years. Those distances won't remain too vast.


The fact that we have not already detected ETs is pretty scary. Nature got a hundred billion rolls of the dice, no starfaring ETs?? The odds against a planet developing a starfaring race have to be at least billions to 1.

We have a pretty good idea of star formation and we can see that planets are abundant (the failure to detect anything Earthlike is more a matter of the techniques being used--we see Jovian worlds because they're far easier to see.) so the worlds are out there.

The limiting factors we can see:

1) The development of life. Looking at our own world this seems unlikely to be an issue as we can't measure the time between when life was possible and when it arose.

2) The development of multicellular life. That took billions of years, perhaps we were very lucky and it normally takes longer.

3) The development of intelligence. From looking at Earth this doesn't seem to be a problem.

4) The suitability of the world for industrialization. An intelligent species that developed on a water world might have quite a problem here. We have no data on how likely terrestrial planets are to be water worlds.

5) The propensity of intelligent life to destroy itself before it escapes it's planet. We can see this is scary but obviously we have no data on how likely it is.

6) The amount of time a planet remains suitable for life. We eeked in under the wire here, 99% of the calendar was already gone before we showed up. While it's only about 80% of the total time when life would be possible we will be entering an era of ever increasing temperatures--a world not favorable to big, slow-reproducing (thus slow-evolving) creatures.

7) The absence of major catastrophes. Earth has seen some bad times in the past that wiped out most life but nothing wiped it all out. Projecting from what has hit us the odds of a cosmic reset button are about 1 in 2 billion years--we have been lucky in this regard.

Multiplying these must end up with at least billions, probably much more. It's unlikely that #4 is a serious factor in this regard and #1 and #3 do not appear to be serious factors. Thus we are down to #2, #5, #6 and #7.

One or more of these factors must be a doozy.

This is why I regard contact with ETs as a very ominous event--if we see another planetary civilization that means that #5 must be a very big factor--and since once we colonize the solar system #5 becomes very hard to accomplish it means it's going to strike soon.

Of course contact with a galactic civilization carries no such ill omen but if there were one out there why haven't we see it? Earth's intelligence is readily detected at interstellar distances (you don't need to understand our radio broadcasts to notice the excess radio energy), why haven't we already seen them??

 

[Bomb#20]

What do you think?

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Somebody must have taken a wild stab at the probability of this happening..

Okay, 99%. Sooner or later we're bound to establish a Mars colony. How long can it take after that before a new species evolves from one of the microbes that hitched a ride with us. Presto, extra-terrestrial life-form.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

This is why I regard contact with ETs as a very ominous event--if we see another planetary civilization that means that #5 must be a very big factor--and since once we colonize the solar system #5 becomes very hard to accomplish it means it's going to strike soon.

I'm not sure I'm following.

Do you mean that if planetary civilizations tend to end as a result of intra-civilization wars, the particular civilization that (in your scenario) survived and moved beyond its home planet enough to be close enough to attack Earth if they so choose would attack Earth and wipe out human civilization?

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I'm not sure I'm following.

Do you mean that if planetary civilizations tend to end as a result of intra-civilization wars, the particular civilization that (in your scenario) survived and moved beyond its home planet enough to be close enough to attack Earth if they so choose would attack Earth and wipe out human civilization?

No. I'm saying that if we find a civilization that hasn't spread to the stars it says it's very likely such societies will destroy themselves.

If there is a galaxy-spanning civilization out there why haven't we already seen them?

 

[Angra Mainyu]

No. I'm saying that if we find a civilization that hasn't spread to the stars it says it's very likely such societies will destroy themselves.

Okay, sorry I misunderstood.

Some of what you're saying is still unclear to me, though. For example, why is it ominous?

Are you saying that the same is likely to happen to our civilization?

I guess that would require that our civilization finds that civilization quickly and by means of radio communication, because if our civilization actually goes out there and finds a planetary civilization, then it seems less probable that that will happen (though there are other ways to address the matter).

Then again, if our civilization detects radio signals in the future, how do our successors know the civilization has not spread beyond their planetary system?

If there is a galaxy-spanning civilization out there why haven't we already seen them?

I do not know. I'm not suggesting there is such civilization, though I guess maybe there is and they are not interested in contacting us, or in building large things that can be seen from here. It depends on their psychology, and I have no idea what that would be. Maybe they're not expansionists. Maybe they're just keeping an eye on the rest, to prevent anyone from taking much of the galactic resources. I admit I have no clue on this one.

Maybe they're (or will be, in a couple billion years) in the Andromeda galaxy, and we'll have to wait a few billion years to make contact with another galactic civilization.

 

[Underseer]

I think not. Distances are too vast, and to any entity that has solved that problem we are probably too uninteresting.

Nonsense. It's entirely possible they will find our natural resources interesting. Isn't that the real reason so many Europeans made contact with peoples they otherwise considered primitive and unimportant?

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Okay, sorry I misunderstood.

Some of what you're saying is still unclear to me, though. For example, why is it ominous?

Are you saying that the same is likely to happen to our civilization?

Yes. If we are planet-bound and find another planet-bound civilization that means it's virtually certain that we will soon destroy ourselves. If planet-bound civilizations are common enough that we can find them without finding any starfaring civilizations then that means it's virtually certain that planet-bound civilizations don't become starfaring civilizations. About the only way that could happen is if they destroy themselves or effectively so do. (Say, for example, a civilization that turns to a perpetual life playing in VR.)

I guess that would require that our civilization finds that civilization quickly and by means of radio communication, because if our civilization actually goes out there and finds a planetary civilization, then it seems less probable that that will happen (though there are other ways to address the matter).

If we find them physically we are a starfaring race.

Then again, if our civilization detects radio signals in the future, how do our successors know the civilization has not spread beyond their planetary system?

Yeah, it could be a starfaring civilization. What we learn from the contact would tell us, though. (Not to mention that if they're starfaring we should have multiple contacts.)

I do not know. I'm not suggesting there is such civilization, though I guess maybe there is and they are not interested in contacting us, or in building large things that can be seen from here. It depends on their psychology, and I have no idea what that would be. Maybe they're not expansionists. Maybe they're just keeping an eye on the rest, to prevent anyone from taking much of the galactic resources. I admit I have no clue on this one.

Earth is obvious for many light years due to how it glows in the radio spectrum. ET worlds should be even more obvious.

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Nonsense. It's entirely possible they will find our natural resources interesting. Isn't that the real reason so many Europeans made contact with peoples they otherwise considered primitive and unimportant?

If we have to travel in an Einsteinian world there won't be invasions for natural resources. It simply won't be worthwhile. You either travel by slowboat (want to spend 1000 years grabbing that gold??) or you spend more energy to get it than you would to run an atom smasher to make it.

 

[Zeluvia]

Well let's see. We have three near "Goldilocks" planets, Venus, Earth and Mars, that could possibly be terraformed, so I figure the Galactic Zoning Board has a temporary restraining order on invasion, pending the resolution of sentient life on Earth. If we fuck ourselves, I am sure this prime real estate will go up for auction toot sweet. And once humans prove their incompetency to handle our own resources, we will probably get to stay on Earth in Reservations because of some hippy alien treehuggers.

So yeah, ET will contact us.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

Yes. If we are planet-bound and find another planet-bound civilization that means it's virtually certain that we will soon destroy ourselves. If planet-bound civilizations are common enough that we can find them without finding any starfaring civilizations then that means it's virtually certain that planet-bound civilizations don't become starfaring civilizations. About the only way that could happen is if they destroy themselves or effectively so do. (Say, for example, a civilization that turns to a perpetual life playing in VR.)

I don’t think that playing VR is the same as suicide, as long as they have a way out for later. like having small bases in a couple of nearby planetary systems for later. Okay, that would not be planet-bound, but it would not be a galactic civilization, either.

That aside, there are stages from planet-bound to galactic.
For example, a civilization (i.e., its members, or at least those with enough resources) might not want to go beyond their planetary system or even their planet until they have to, so they might wait for billions of years, perhaps keeping small bases elsewhere, or keeping an eye on the rest.

If we find them physically we are a starfaring race.

Yes, though not necessarily a galactic civilization.

Yeah, it could be a starfaring civilization. What we learn from the contact would tell us, though. (Not to mention that if they're starfaring we should have multiple contacts.)

That would depend on a number of factors, such as how they communicate. But for example, it might be that after they sent radio signals when they’re planet-bound, the aliens in question stops communicating in such an indiscriminate manner.

Other than that, there is not much we can learn from detecting a signal. We’re talking about something that happens in the relatively near future – before humans or post-humans have self-sustaining colonies in much of the solar system.

Or are you thinking back-and-forth communication?

That is not likely to happen. If we find signals from another civilization, unless civilizations are common, then chances are the signal will come from a very long distance. Even if agents on both sides decided to communicate, it would take so long that by the time there is a successful exchange, human civilization will have at least colonized much of the Solar System.

Earth is obvious for many light years due to how it glows in the radio spectrum. ET worlds should be even more obvious.

That would depend on a variety of factors, like the way they communicate. They may not be sending signals like us; for all I know, it might be that most civilizations choose to go (mostly) radio silent after a few centuries for safety reasons, or for some other reason.

Also, as far as I can tell (not much, so I might be wrong about this) we probably wouldn’t be able to detect a civilization sending signals like ours (i.e., not deliberately trying to communicate, and using the same kind of technology we have) from, say, 50 light years away or more (just to pick a conservative number).

That said, I'm not saying it's likely that there is a civilization with the capability to affect things pretty much anywhere in the galaxy or much of it. It does not seem so to me. But I do not have enough data to rule that out. If we were talking about some aliens with some specific goals, then one perhaps could rule them out based on those goals and our observations, but given the lack of such conditions, I'm not prepared to rule it out.

 

[+or-1]

I suspect that when we know more about how the universe works we're going to find that life, far from being so rare and unusual, is almost inevitable. I think that constraints various exo-biology people put on it are arrogant and silly. Just because we only know of a type of life that requires liquid water and amino acids hardly means that this is the only life that can exist. I wonder if we would even recognize non-carbon/water life as life. That said, given the vastness of space, I think it's more than a little unlikely that we'll meet other, self-aware life. I have to agree with Loren though, intentional or no, any beings who have the capacity for interstellar travel will be so far ahead of us that it will be the Aztecs vs. the Spanish or the Native Americans vs. the Europeans time a thousand (a million?).

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Well let's see. We have three near "Goldilocks" planets, Venus, Earth and Mars, that could possibly be terraformed, so I figure the Galactic Zoning Board has a temporary restraining order on invasion, pending the resolution of sentient life on Earth. If we fuck ourselves, I am sure this prime real estate will go up for auction toot sweet. And once humans prove their incompetency to handle our own resources, we will probably get to stay on Earth in Reservations because of some hippy alien treehuggers.

So yeah, ET will contact us.

Even if they left our solar system alone we should see them around other stars.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I don’t think that playing VR is the same as suicide, as long as they have a way out for later. like having small bases in a couple of nearby planetary systems for later. Okay, that would not be planet-bound, but it would not be a galactic civilization, either.

I'm talking about a civilization where they spend their lives playing and not actually accomplishing anything.

That aside, there are stages from planet-bound to galactic.
For example, a civilization (i.e., its members, or at least those with enough resources) might not want to go beyond their planetary system or even their planet until they have to, so they might wait for billions of years, perhaps keeping small bases elsewhere, or keeping an eye on the rest.

But would all the members of the civilization desire the same thing? Most colonization efforts are done by dissatisfied groups, not by the country at large. The more technology develops the smaller a group would be able to decide to pull up stakes and leave. Eventually some group does.

That would depend on a number of factors, such as how they communicate. But for example, it might be that after they sent radio signals when they’re planet-bound, the aliens in question stops communicating in such an indiscriminate manner.

I'm not even figuring deliberate communications efforts. ETs can see Earth from nearby stars, we should be able to see them.

Other than that, there is not much we can learn from detecting a signal. We’re talking about something that happens in the relatively near future – before humans or post-humans have self-sustaining colonies in much of the solar system.

I do agree we wouldn't learn a lot unless we learned to decode what we were hearing.

That would depend on a variety of factors, like the way they communicate. They may not be sending signals like us; for all I know, it might be that most civilizations choose to go (mostly) radio silent after a few centuries for safety reasons, or for some other reason.

Safety? From what? Unless there's something like the Berserkers out there there's no reason to hide.

Also, as far as I can tell (not much, so I might be wrong about this) we probably wouldn’t be able to detect a civilization sending signals like ours (i.e., not deliberately trying to communicate, and using the same kind of technology we have) from, say, 50 light years away or more (just to pick a conservative number).

Note the implications--if we detect one that means they're very common. Yet where are the starfaring ones??

 

[Bomb#20]

Note the implications--if we detect one that means they're very common. Yet where are the starfaring ones??

Well, it might turn out that interstellar travel isn't as easy as it looks...