How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Based on his actions, that seems quite plausible. He's certainly afraid of democracy in his own country.

We have been over this many times. You need to watch Mearsheimer lectures.
Short answer is no, he is not afraid of it.

Mearsheimer would be quite happy to confirm that Putin is afraid of democracy in his own country. In fact, the second Mearsheimer video that he posted and urged everyone to watch started out by contrasting the individualism of liberal democracy as opposed to the social membership inherent in ethnic loyalties as a basis for nationhood. The whole point of that was to emphasize that liberal democracy was a challenge for people living in Eastern Europe, where more emphasis is placed on the relationship between group membership than individual freedom when defining nationhood. Either barbos did not listen to that second video, or he never understood the point that Mearsheimer was making--that Russians would not be comfortable with the idea that a nation was some kind of contract where individuals ceded powers to government rather than the government ceding powers to individuals. The two approaches to the nature of nationhood are at odds with each other.

If I were a statistician doing root-cause-analysis I would certainly chalk up Putin's fear of democracy as the cause of the present conflict. What could be more obvious? And as I posted elsewhere when a despot sees his refuge shrinking he gets even more irrational knowing that the tide may be coming for him as well.

 

[barbos]

But the fundamental truth is that Russia invaded Ukraine. No spin there.

I don't disagree. But Russia did not start this war. It was started 8 years ago by Ukraine, against their own (at the time) people, they caused death of 14k people, "civilized" world did absolutely nothing to stop it.
And Russia is going to end this war, and if invasion is the solution so be it.

Yes... and Putin's 8 year pause on acting on the murder of 14k is duly noted.

He did support these republics and it was not like he did not have hopes in change of Ukrainian position. Ukraine does have competitive presidential elections. Clown-the-president was kinda sane. The previous was not totally insane. And then there are american presidents, they could change their positions too.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Putin and the Oligarchs are likely nervous about the ledgers being open and there being a full accounting of how much they stole from the Russian people.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I don't disagree. But Russia did not start this war. It was started 8 years ago by Ukraine, against their own (at the time) people, they caused death of 14k people, "civilized" world did absolutely nothing to stop it.
And Russia is going to end this war, and if invasion is the solution so be it.

Yes... and Putin's 8 year pause on acting on the murder of 14k is duly noted.

He did support these republics and it was not like he did not have hopes in change of Ukrainian position. Ukraine does have competitive presidential elections. Clown-the-president was kinda sane.

It is really a shame Putin dropped the denazification of Poland and Hungary as anti-Semitism continues to expand there. It is almost like he just made up that excuse last week.

 

[barbos]

I don't disagree. But Russia did not start this war. It was started 8 years ago by Ukraine, against their own (at the time) people, they caused death of 14k people, "civilized" world did absolutely nothing to stop it.
And Russia is going to end this war, and if invasion is the solution so be it.

Yes... and Putin's 8 year pause on acting on the murder of 14k is duly noted.

He did support these republics and it was not like he did not have hopes in change of Ukrainian position. Ukraine does have competitive presidential elections. Clown-the-president was kinda sane.

It is really a shame Putin dropped the denazification of Poland and Hungary as anti-Semitism continues to expand there. It is almost like he just made up that excuse last week.

I am not following you here, sorry.
Are you implying that Poland/Hungary are the two flakiest members of EU?
Well, according to EU at least. So what are you saying? that nazi-problem is just some kind of excuse? OK, let say it is. Now continue with your theory.

 

[barbos]

Putin and the Oligarchs are likely nervous about the ledgers being open and there being a full accounting of how much they stole from the Russian people.

They stole 100% of it. Nobody has any doubt in it.
Getting it back is impossible though.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I don't disagree. But Russia did not start this war. It was started 8 years ago by Ukraine, against their own (at the time) people, they caused death of 14k people, "civilized" world did absolutely nothing to stop it.
And Russia is going to end this war, and if invasion is the solution so be it.

Yes... and Putin's 8 year pause on acting on the murder of 14k is duly noted.

He did support these republics and it was not like he did not have hopes in change of Ukrainian position. Ukraine does have competitive presidential elections. Clown-the-president was kinda sane.

It is really a shame Putin dropped the denazification of Poland and Hungary as anti-Semitism continues to expand there. It is almost like he just made up that excuse last week.

I am not following you here, sorry.
Are you implying that Poland/Hungary are the two flakiest members of EU?
Well, according to EU at least. So what are you saying? that nazi-problem is just some kind of excuse? OK, let say it is. Now continue with your theory.

I'm saying the "Nazi" issue is a red herring by Putin. He is creating a ridiculous strawman regarding the Ukrainian government. Yes, EU members have been fucking up on anti-Semitism. Being in the EU however, has tempered how much they can go in that direction though. Putin doesn't give a darn about "Nazis", his rhetoric on all this has been super saturated in hyperbole and red herrings.

He tried to scare off Zelensky, using a very small invasion force (for any attempt to actually occupy a hostile Ukraine). And now Putin is stuck between losing face and losing face. He certainly has the military might to seriously mess up Ukraine, but clearly, denazification of Ukraine doesn't mean all too much or he'd have used more troops. But he can't afford that.

 

[barbos]

I don't disagree. But Russia did not start this war. It was started 8 years ago by Ukraine, against their own (at the time) people, they caused death of 14k people, "civilized" world did absolutely nothing to stop it.
And Russia is going to end this war, and if invasion is the solution so be it.

Yes... and Putin's 8 year pause on acting on the murder of 14k is duly noted.

He did support these republics and it was not like he did not have hopes in change of Ukrainian position. Ukraine does have competitive presidential elections. Clown-the-president was kinda sane.

It is really a shame Putin dropped the denazification of Poland and Hungary as anti-Semitism continues to expand there. It is almost like he just made up that excuse last week.

I am not following you here, sorry.
Are you implying that Poland/Hungary are the two flakiest members of EU?
Well, according to EU at least. So what are you saying? that nazi-problem is just some kind of excuse? OK, let say it is. Now continue with your theory.

I'm saying the "Nazi" issue is a red herring by Putin. He is creating a ridiculous strawman regarding the Ukrainian government. Yes, EU members have been fucking up on anti-Semitism. Being in the EU however, has tempered how much they can go in that direction though. Putin doesn't give a darn about "Nazis", his rhetoric on all this has been super saturated in hyperbole and red herrings.

Let me remind you that you all here started with "Ukraine&Nazi? preposterous bullshit!"
Now, the only reason why we have had 8 years of war in Eastern Ukraine are nazi, period!

He tried to scare off Zelensky, using a very small invasion force (for any attempt to actually occupy a hostile Ukraine). And now Putin is stuck between losing face and losing face. He certainly has the military might to seriously mess up Ukraine, but clearly, denazification of Ukraine doesn't mean all too much or he'd have used more troops. But he can't afford that.

You seems to be saying "Yes, Putin is right, but he can still lose"
Sure, nazi and neocons can still win.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky dispatched a delegation that included Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov and other key officials, including a close adviser to the president and the deputy foreign minister. But the sides seemed far apart: the Ukrainians would demand an immediate cease fire and the withdrawal of Russian troops, according to Zelenky’s office. The Kremlin had said it was willing to talk — on the condition that Ukraine “demilitarize and denazify,” making it clear it expected Ukraine’s capitulation.

link

Denazify... sounds like Kent Hovind's Evolution challenge. Make up words and conditions and force the otherwise to accept they are reasonable to even recognize.

I also like the demilitarize part. Umm... yeah... we'll demilitarize because you so boldly held to the previous agreement we had regarding military action and occupation. I have no idea how Putin comes out of this looking good even propaganda wise, without escalating military force.

 

[barbos]

Jimmy Higgins, yes, both sides demands are ridiculous.
Basically:
You capitulate!
No, you capitulate!

 

[pood]

Great article in The Guardian about Putin by Vladimir Sorokin. Note this passage, when someone or other complains about “Nazis” opposing Russia’s Dear Leader:

Putin’s favorite philosopher is Ivan Ilyin – a monarchist, Russian nationalist, anti-Semite, and ideologist of the White movement, who was expelled by Lenin from Soviet Russia in 1922 and ended his life in exile. When Hitler came to power in Germany, Ilyin congratulated him hotly for “bringing the Bolshevization of Germany to a halt”

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I don't disagree. But Russia did not start this war. It was started 8 years ago by Ukraine, against their own (at the time) people, they caused death of 14k people, "civilized" world did absolutely nothing to stop it.
And Russia is going to end this war, and if invasion is the solution so be it.

Yes... and Putin's 8 year pause on acting on the murder of 14k is duly noted.

He did support these republics and it was not like he did not have hopes in change of Ukrainian position. Ukraine does have competitive presidential elections. Clown-the-president was kinda sane.

It is really a shame Putin dropped the denazification of Poland and Hungary as anti-Semitism continues to expand there. It is almost like he just made up that excuse last week.

I am not following you here, sorry.
Are you implying that Poland/Hungary are the two flakiest members of EU?
Well, according to EU at least. So what are you saying? that nazi-problem is just some kind of excuse? OK, let say it is. Now continue with your theory.

I'm saying the "Nazi" issue is a red herring by Putin. He is creating a ridiculous strawman regarding the Ukrainian government. Yes, EU members have been fucking up on anti-Semitism. Being in the EU however, has tempered how much they can go in that direction though. Putin doesn't give a darn about "Nazis", his rhetoric on all this has been super saturated in hyperbole and red herrings.

Let me remind you that you all here started with "Ukraine&Nazi? preposterous bullshit!"

Denazification is BS.

Now, the only reason why we have had 8 years of war in Eastern Ukraine are nazi, period!

Oh, it was war, I thought it was genocide.

He tried to scare off Zelensky, using a very small invasion force (for any attempt to actually occupy a hostile Ukraine). And now Putin is stuck between losing face and losing face. He certainly has the military might to seriously mess up Ukraine, but clearly, denazification of Ukraine doesn't mean all too much or he'd have used more troops. But he can't afford that.

You seems to be saying "Yes, Putin is right, but he can still lose"

No, that's not what I said, best to just leave my quotes as-is.

Sure, nazi and neocons can still win.

Neocons lost. They've seeded power to the partisanly insane. Putin can "win" in Ukraine by laying it a bunch more to waste. Nazis haven't been in power for a while, but anti-Semitism is strongest in Eastern Europe (and Russia), among people. Kind of like how the US isn't an outwardly anti-African American nation, but we have areas where people are quite racist.

 

[ZiprHead]

Now that it has escalated into actual combat, I still think this is not an issue the US should be involved in. No, that doesn't mean I support the either side in this conflict.

So your libertarian principles don't apply to other countries?

 

[ZiprHead]

On 22 January 2010, the outgoing President of Ukraine and Russian puppet Viktor Yushchenko awarded Bandera the posthumous title of Hero of Ukraine.[13] The European Parliament condemned the award,[14] as did Russia,[15] Polish, and Jewish politicians and organizations

FTFY

 

[ZiprHead]

But the fundamental truth is that Russia invaded Ukraine. No spin there.

I don't disagree. But Russia did not start this war. It was started 8 years ago by Ukraine, against their own (at the time) people, they caused death of 14k people, "civilized" world did absolutely nothing to stop it.
And Russia is going to end this war, and if invasion is the solution so be it.

You mean they started a war against people who tried to rebel against Ukraine with the backing of Russia and arms supplied by Russia?

 

[ZiprHead]

I heard that Putin's demands for the talks today is for Ukraine to demilitarize and denazify,

You first, Pootey.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_National_Unity

LOL, the name I have not heard in decades. He is still alive.
But I do remember his name. Not face though. I did not have TV in Russia in the 90s, maybe that's why.
.....
....
Actually, I am starting to remember his face. Damn, he got old.

So you admit you have Nazis operating in your country.

 

[lpetrich]

Post-Soviet Russia's full name is the Russian Federation.


To bring up another issue, is  Mikheil Saakashvili supposed to be a great villain? He is a former President of Eurasian Georgia, not the US state. He came to power in the  Rose Revolution of 2003, against the government of Eduard Shevardnadze, who was the Foreign Minister of the Soviet Union over 1985 - 1990. That made him the third President of Georgia, over 2004 - 2013, and he then became a politician in Ukraine. Last year, he returned to Georgia, and he was arrested and jailed. He is now doing a hunger strike there.

Back in 2008:  Russo-Georgian War -  Timeline of the Russo-Georgian War over August 1 - 26 of that year - Russia supported separatists in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.


Switzerland Says it Will Freeze Russian Assets - The New York Times

Switzerland, a favorite destination for Russian oligarchs and their money, announced on Monday that it would freeze Russian financial assets in the country, setting aside a deeply rooted tradition of neutrality to join the European Union and a growing number of nations seeking to penalize Russia for the invasion of Ukraine.

Also
Neutral Swiss poised to freeze Russian assets - president | Reuters

witzerland has walked a tortuous line between showing solidarity with the West and maintaining its traditional neutrality that the government says could make it a potential mediator.

But it faces growing pressure to side clearly with the West against Moscow and adopt punitive European Union sanctions. The government had so far said only that it will not let Switzerland be used as a platform to circumvent EU sanctions.

Switzerland, like Sweden, has stayed out of European wars since the Napoleonic wars, a little over 200 years ago.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Zelensky applied for immediate EU membership. Don't know if that in and of itself will get Ukraine anything more than what they are already getting from the civilized world.

 

[Copernicus]

The fact that even historically neutral Switzerland has now joined in the international community in freezing Russian assets is mind-boggling. And that hits Putin badly, I believe. I've heard that he has a lot of wealth squirreled away in Swiss banks. The Reuters story cited by @lpetrich has been updated to reflect the fact that Switzerland has gone ahead with the freeze. So the title was changed:

Neutral Swiss join EU sanctions against Russia in break with past​

 

[Copernicus]

Zelensky applied for immediate EU membership. Don't know if that in and of itself will get Ukraine anything more than what they are already getting from the civilized world.

Basically, Ukraine would become part of the free trade zone in the EU and have better access to financial resources for rebuilding its country after the Russians leave. However, they would also become subject to EU laws and regulations. I doubt that the membership will come quickly, since it would have to be ratified unanimously by all EU members. The offer to join made by the EU president may not actually have unanimous support. I'm not sure how Hungary's Orban would vote. He has been moving increasingly in an autocratic direction and cozying up to Putin.