How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Copernicus]

But the fundamental truth is that Russia invaded Ukraine. No spin there.

I don't disagree. But Russia did not start this war. It was started 8 years ago by Ukraine, against their own (at the time) people, they caused death of 14k people, "civilized" world did absolutely nothing to stop it.
And Russia is going to end this war, and if invasion is the solution so be it.

The Euromaidan revolution successfully forced out a pro-Putin president who had illegally used brutal tactics to suppress a peaceful protest against his policies. And one should remember that Yanukovych didn't just flee. He resigned before he did so. He knew he was finished and could never keep the presidency. Public opinion had turned against him over the three months that the protesters occupied the Maidan.

Putin started the war in 2014 because of that, and he did so by unilaterally invading Crimea and the Donbas. Russia was not under attack or threat of attack from Crimea. Putin felt himself personally under attack and humiliated by the rejection of his attempts to bearhug Ukraine. Ukraine was slipping away from Putin and would serve as an example of how a country like Russia could transform itself into a bona fide democracy--exactly the opposite direction from where Putin was going.

And now we see what kind of "solution" Putin's second invasion has become. He can reduce Ukraine to burning rubble, but the people there will never accept Russian rule. And the rest of the world is not going to forget what Putin did with his country. Even if the man is somehow deposed and Russia withdraws its troops, it will be a long time before the damage to the Russian economy and Russia's image recovers. All the international markets Russia is losing will not come back overnight. All of the sanctions will not disappear immediately, because there are so many, and they are so complex. And Ukraine is going to have to have its freedom restored and its country rebuilt first. Russia won't do that, because it will have its own problems in trying to recover from the mess it made.

 

[Jayjay]

Obviously you put some extra effort to it, because in your earlier reply you said you said you didn't have it.

I still don't have it but the original wording was something to the extent of "Americans run with bags of money and throw it anybody who promise to trash Russia"
I believe it was off-hand remark right after Saakashvili started War with Russia and she split with him because of it. So basically she had been on board with this but could not after he started a war. So she just intentionally blurted the whole plan.

Or maybe it wasn't "the plan" but hyperbole. From what I can tell, it was Russia who started the war (despite some ambiguity in the EU report that you quoted earlier). And according to Wikipedia, it was the western advice that delayed Saakashvili's (inevitable) reaction to the Russian incursion.

http://www.cpc-ew.ro/pdfs/the_russian_georgian_war.pdf

Another mistake was linked with the secrecy and abstinence requested by the West at the first stages of the crisis that prevented Georgian officials to publicly state that a battalion of Russian Troops entered the Roki tunnel in the night of 6/7 of August. The misperception that it would escalate the conflict and that this behavior would calm and appease the Russian leadership proved to be wrong, and it came at some costs, when Georgia “was found guilty” by some media of beginning the military operations especially because Russia denied this part of the reality and challenged the Georgian statement by using exactly the absence of this public statement.

Who knows. A small country's media doesn't necessarily have the resources to follow ever local politician in even smaller countries. In this case, I personally didn't care about Georgia or Ukraine for that matter.

No, you are not getting off that easy, simply because the same happened in big countries as well. Everybody "ignored" the bombshell. I put it in quotes because they did not ignore the bombshell. They knew damn well what US and West in general were doing all along, it's not secret for them. They just cover each other backs, because you are the good guys and Russia are the bad guys and the only way is to shut Russia down, smart people at Neocon University have thought about that and this the only way. So get on with a plan. Except as Mearsheimer correctly predicted, Russia could snap. And once Russia snaps NATO would have to think whether or not keep Baltic States in NATO.

This part of my post was merely an explanation, or an excuse, of my own personal ignorance on the topic.

But in general, these "bombshells" are just propaganda talking points. Just like the "bombshell" of Nuland call that Russia leaked in an attempt to drive a wedge between US/EU relations. In reality, nobody cared and it had nothing to do with the bigger picture of what was going on.

 

[lpetrich]

More from Kamil Galeev: Kamil Galeev on Twitter: "I'll make a pause, gonna resume in an hour or so. To be continued soon" / Twitter

He then assesses the state of Ukraine's armed forces. In 2014, the Ukrainian Army had a lot of old Soviet-era equipment that was only poorly functional, and Russia had an easy win back then. Since then, Ukraine has bought lots of new weaponry.

Kamil Galeev on Twitter: "Finally, Ukraine created a new type of troops - the troops of territorial defence, whose number is estimated in 60 000. It's a copy of the Polish troop type. These are civilians who get military training and can be mobilised in a day to fight only in their own town and region (pic link)" / Twitter
What one would need for defense of one's territory.

Then discussing why Russia is not being very successful, like its frontline troops' supply lines being poorly defended. It's also not the sort of war that Putin is accustomed to fighting, a long, drawn-out affair. Many Russian troops are in it to get a Russian version of the GI Bill, like apartments from the state. So they won't be willing to fight unless they are attacked.

What next?

1. Start destroying infrastructure (done)
2. Blockade cities (done)
3. Simply level cities with bombers and artillery like in Chechnya or Syria (may be)

 

[Copernicus]

Kamil Galeev on Twitter: "Finally, Ukraine created a new type of troops - the troops of territorial defence, whose number is estimated in 60 000. It's a copy of the Polish troop type. These are civilians who get military training and can be mobilised in a day to fight only in their own town and region (pic link)" / Twitter
What one would need for defense of one's territory.

We don't have anything like this in the US, but it seems to be what the authors of the Second Amendment had in mind--a citizen militia. I don't know how effective they are, but they are fighting a foreign invader for their homes and their country's freedom.

 

[Toni]

Yeah, anti-Semitism and racism in Russia? No way! Be like Canada invading the US because the US plays curling, which must be stamped out.

No, you are not gonna just word-bomb out of it.
Ukraine is not Russia.

Exactly! Now, please inform Putin. He seems confused about that bit.

 

[lpetrich]

Ukraine applies for European Union membership : NPR

krainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has officially signed an application for Ukraine's membership in the European Union, according to a post from his verified Facebook page.

"[Zelenskyy] has just signed a historical document — Ukraine's application for European Union membership," tweeted Andrii Sybiha, the deputy head of the president's office. Ukraine's prime minister and head of parliament also signed a joint statement, he added.

However,

A country can only apply once it satisfies certain conditions, including having a free-market economy and stable democracy and accepting all EU legislation as well as the euro. Then it submits its application to the European Council, which asks the European Commission to assess the country's ability to meet those criteria.

If the commission's assessment is favorable, the European Council must unanimously agree on a formal framework for negotiations, which then take place between ministers and ambassadors of EU governments and the candidate country.

"Due to the huge volume of EU rules and regulations each candidate country must adopt as national law, the negotiations take time to complete," the EU explains.

Candidates: Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey
Potential candidates: Kosovo, Bosnia-Herzegovina

 

[Jarhyn]

It's like Putin (to be fair, a lot of people) fails to realize that with the advent of the internet most everyone above a certain cusp of age and exposure has seen enough to identify MOST bullshit, manipulation, and gaslighting.

It might have been a thing once upon a time even in Putin's lifetime where all the sneaky sneaky secrets for disrupting states worked because it was easy to play an informational hustle and communication sucked and all the tricks were new.

Now? We all in the course of our daily lives each have to contend with a veritable SEA of trolls, manipulators, and POEs.

 

[Jayjay]

help that the historical figures who fought against the soviets for Ukrainian independence also happened to be nazi collaborators. But that doesn't mean that the hangers on have the power to install the government.

What kind of Jew (he is not technically) would accept support from groops associated with nazi collaborators who were murdering jews?
Well, apparently Zelensky would, and Poroshenko as well.

Or maybe they were supported despite of that, for national unity's sake?

Ukrainian Jews disagree with your contention that all Ukrainians are nazis. And they don't seem to have any problem with Zelensky.

It does not really matter, facts are facts. They are naming streets after nazis.
Modern Ukraine national identity is based on nazis and hatred of everything Russia.
That's how they decided to build it.
Your beloved Baltic States, essentially the same problem - all national heroes from the 20th centrury - jew killers. There is no way around it. I blame Hitler, but it is what it is.
It's either jew killer or communist, pick your choice.

Exactly. Ukraine chose the jew killer over a communist, as a lesser evil. And because Bandera's crimes are in the past, whereas Russia is killing Ukrainians now. The street naming debacle has more to do with spiting off Russia than glorifying nazis.

A much smarter plan would be to name the streets after dissidents killed or captured by Russia. I think Klitschko suggested that one of the streets should be named after Boris Nemtsov, for example. But in grand scheme of things street names are meaningless. The proportional reaction to it is to write a sternly-worded letter to the editor, not invade a country and bomb civilians.

Jew or not jew was very important for German Nazi, they had strict rules and theory about that. All other nazis were mostly about killing anyone other than them or better had grudge against like communists and since most jews were communists anyway.

The fucking point is that only a very small minority of Ukrainians currently are any kind of nazis, like Putin would have you believe. He's been demonizing Ukrainians for years for being nazis and fascists, while he himself is doing what Hitler did in 1938-1939.

 

[Trausti]

 

[Angry Floof]

I wish I knew what they were saying!

 

[Jayjay]

Meanwhile, group of members of Ukrainian Parliament (Rada) wrote a letter to President of Ukraine suggesting immediate talks with Russia.

Probably because they know the entire Ukrainian parliament will be sacked and they want to get on the good side of their next boss. Or at least avoid the execution squad.

You mean like they did during 2014 US led coup when they banned russian language?
Yes, probably.

This is a prime example of Russian propaganda hyberbole. Nobody "banned" the Russian language. The issue was repealing the 2012 law that granted some additional rights to minority languages in the territories. Russian language wasn't "banned" anymore afterwards than it was between 1991-2012, and the constitution still protects it as a minority language as before.

The Ukrainians were rightfully concerned about their own language and unity of their country. And ultimately this law was repealed by the supreme court as unconstitional, not through a political action (but one can surmise that the court isn't exactly apolitical either, Ukraine being as corrupt as it is and because apparently the courts saw no problem with the law in 2012). Maybe it shows poor judgment because it just gave Putin more ammunition in his propaganda, but the language issue is not what triggered the invasion back in 2014, and even less the invasion now.

Besides, the language law repeal wasn't suggested until after Putin had already decided to annex Crimea. It's just another excuse.

 

[Jayjay]

Zelensky refused negotiations....
Go figure. He had such remarkable speech asking to sit down and talk and now he refuses.

Why would any sane person on Earth trust Putin in any negotiation? That's insane. He's probably the least credible person in the world today. If Putin want's people to take him seriously, back down your forces in the least. Stop killing people. Then start to talk.

Putin’s offer was to have negotiations in Belarus, one of the staging grounds for the invasion.

would anyone with an IQ above room temperature find that acceptable?

Zelensky has agreed to the meeting, but at the Ukraine border with Belarus. He is pessimistic that anything can come from these talks, as the only thing Ukraine wants is for Russia to leave. Putin just wants them to surrender.

Meanwhile, the EU appears now to be willing to let Ukraine join them.

EU chief says bloc wants Ukraine as member​

It's a nice gesture, but if it really comes down to yes/no vote within EU countries, I'm not so sure if everyone would vote for Ukraine to join.

EU has some serious internal problems with bureocracy and governance. The decision to admit new members has to be unanimous, and a lot of countries will balance it based on their own internal politics. Hungary, who's close to Russia, could veto it, but also Nordics or Germany might be apprehensive to admit yet another corrupt eastern European country to the mix because it would undoubtedly be a net beneficiary. EU already has huge problems with Poland not abiding by the rules while getting billions of euros from the EU.

This is all speculative of course. Whatever wreck that Putin leaves behind might not be in any position to make sovereign decisions about joining anyway.

 

[Jayjay]

Your claim was "US wants Finland in NATO and that's why they created this crisis."

That was not a claim, obviously. It was a remark to other person remark talking about Finland changing their NATO stance.
Having said that, US is not happy that Finland is not in NATO, there can't be no doubt about that and this is a fact.

Of course US would like to have Sweden and Finland in NATO. Both are peaceful countries that wouldn't bring any new drama with them (unlike Georgia or Ukraine), and would be paying their own share and buying (even more) American weapons. But that's not the same thing as saying that the US is "not happy" or that it's trying to intimidate or manipulate Sweden and Finland to join. Even US state department realizes that it's just not realistic, and not worth the negative press.

By the way, latest polls conducted last week in Sweden and Finland show a huge increase in support for NATO membership: 53% in Finland (up from 28% just a few months ago), and 40% in Sweden. Thank Putin.

 

[Jayjay]

And he died over 60 years ago.

Yep, and now "Jew" President names streets after him.

Care to provide reliable sourses for this odd statement?

What do you mean sources? You did not know?

The problem with your argument is that it's basically "guilt by association" combined with six degrees of Kevin Bacon.

Zelensky knows a guy who knows a guy who ... etc. ... who knows a guy who named a street after a guy who was a nazi collaborator in WW2. So Zelensky is a NAZI!

The president doesn't choose street names in Kyiv. Presidents usually don't, so it's fair to ask for sources. If you do have one that says it was Zelensky who named the streets, I'll gladly recant.

 

[ZiprHead]

I wish I knew what they were saying!

Something about they are going to plant it in their garden, I've heard.

 

[Angry Floof]

I wish I knew what they were saying!

Something about they are going to plant it in their garden, I've heard.

I love the story about the woman who gave sunflower seeds to a Russian soldier so that flowers would grow when he was killed on their soil.

 

[TSwizzle]

Updating your Facebook page with the flag of Ukraine is not enough, let the serious virtue signaling begin;

An increasing number of US states have demanded stores remove Russian products from their shelves to protest the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, which may result in shoppers struggling to find certain Russian staples at their local market. Russia's most famous export, vodka, has so far been at the forefront of the burgeoning backlash, with officials in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Utah and New Hampshire last week calling on liquor shops to remove Russian-made or Russian-branded products from their store stock. Utah Governor Spencer Cox requested Saturday that state-run liquor outlets 'remove all Russian-produced and Russian-branded products,' stating that Russia's invasion of Ukraine is an 'egregious violation of human rights.' New Hampshire's Governor Chris Sununu made a similar announcement, asking for the removal of 'Russian-made and Russian-branded spirits' in the 'Live Free or Die' state.

Daily Mail

This is about as idiotic as the "freedom fries" nonsense.

In West New York, liquor store Attica Wine & Spirits announced Friday that it would be doing away with its Russian-made spirits, saying it would be selling off remaining Russian items at a reduced rate in an effort to rid their supply. 'Due to the current situation in Ukraine, we have decided to remove all items made in Russia from our shelves,' the liquor store, located 30 miles east of Buffalo wrote in a post on Facebook. 'These items will be discounted until gone. Thanks for your understanding.'

A much more sensible approach.

 

[Jayjay]

yes, situation changed. Ukraine provided drastic shit. Nord Stream 2 stopped.

Ukraine didn't do any "drastic shit" since December, that it hadn' done before. Sure there was shelling back and forth between Ukrainian soldiers and separatists, but that had been going on since the beginning. Nord stream 2 didn't stop until after Russia attacked.

Actually they did. Russia did not complain too much about it because it was clear that US/West would dismiss it as False Flag (US said so in advance) So they simply denied US that opportunity.

I'm not a mind reader, so I don't know what specific instances of "drastic shit" you're referring to. But the claims of saboteurs tring to blow up a chlorine tank was shown to be fake, and just yesterday Bellingcat exposed the story of IED's in Gorlovka highway as staged. (I wouldn't call these "fake flag" operations though, because that implies a different kind of deception, with some military attacking its own targets and pretending to be the enemy; these are just fakes). I strongly suspect that the "drastic shit" you have in mind is likewise either faked, or just a normal response to separatist shelling.

Your logic is also flawed. Let's say Ukraine did do something. But Russia still invaded and here you are, using those hypothetical incidents as an excuse. If Russia wanted to avoid the accusation of a false flag operation, the way to do that is to not attack. Truth would come out eventually. All that Russia is doing differently if this wasn't his doing is that he's downplaying the incidents because even he can see how amateurish the fakes were, and that they wouldn't stand up to scrutiny.

The plan was to provoke Russia into going into East Ukraine and stay there or annex it. That would kill Nord Stream 2 and would give other benefits to Ukraine. That's why Ukrainian government did not believe Russia would invade, they were not lying, they truly believed in their plan. They miscalculated. And now we have this shit. Many thanks to Nuland&Co

Conspiracy theorist bullshit. If Ukraine had calculated that there would be immense sanctions from EU that would halt Nord Stream 2, then the chances are it would also halt the pipe through Ukraine (by way of counter-sanctions or ending money transfers for Germany or Austria to pay for the gas), leaving Ukraine with nothing and losing over half its territory. On the other hand if they were counting on a light response, similar to sanctions imposed after Crimean annexation, then Nord Stream 2 would still go through.

This narrative, that Ukraine wanted Russia to attack is utterly ridiculous victim shaming. It's like when an abusive husband smacks his wife and then says, "look at what you made me do!"

 

[Jayjay]

Yeah, anti-Semitism and racism in Russia? No way! Be like Canada invading the US because the US plays curling, which must be stamped out.

No, you are not gonna just word-bomb out of it.
Ukraine is not Russia.

Right. But Russia invading Ukraine because "Nazis and antisemitism" when the Russians were allied with the Nazis until 1941, and the Nazis were running camps as early as '33... Well, I think it's a little pot/kettle.

Ukraine is allied with Nazi Germany now. You should be tired with all that goal posts moving. Take a break.

And no, Russia never was allied with Nazis.

 Molotov–Ribbentrop_Pact

 

[Jayjay]

Belarus is not in the EU and doesn't have any special tariff treaty with them, so how would that work?

Easy. Russia currently bans large swatch of EU food products from but not from Belarus, and it has pretty much open border with Belarus. Guess what was/is happening?

This is exactly what I said in the next sentence that you omitted to quote.

It's a issue with Russia's own agricultural import ban. A 100% self-inflicted problem. Also, all of this happened after the Crimean annexation as a response to EU sanctions, so had the events of 2014 turned out differently, it would be a non-issue.

The EU association agreement was a real problem for Putin, because his plan was to have Ukraine eventually join the customs union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan (and possible other future states in Russia's sphere of influence). But like you pointed out, a country can't be in multiple customs unions at the same time. Ukraine having a separate customs treaty with the EU (which is what the EU association agreement may have led to eventually) would have closed the door for this plan. That's why Putin ordered his puppet Yanukovich to nix the agreement.

No. yes to something but mostly no. Putin was not happy because it would literally cost Russia money by a large number of different mechanisms. Think of GB leaving EU. But he was not going to war over it, and once Nazi Coup succeeded to remove Yanukovich, Putin said OK, we need to negotiate that so that we (Russia) do not lose too much money on this. He was fine with Ukraine going EU.

I didn't say he went to war over it. But he did order Yanukovich to kill the EU association agreement, which kicked off the protests and everything snowballed from there. I'm not saying that Putin was some chessmaster planning 8 moves ahead on this; but he did have reason to want to block the EU deal.

Putin probably wanted to annex Crimea at some point anyway, it's just that there was no reason as long as his puppet was in power.

He did not order Yanukovich to nix the agreement. Yanukovich would have nixed it anyway.

He got elected on the promise of signing the agreement. Your statement is (probably) true only to the extent that Yanukovich probably was always Putin's stooge and simply lied about it earlier.

The EU association agreement being "shit" is just a diversion. It's mostly symbolic, and the actual meat is in the implementation. But it was a point where Ukraine was permanently closing the door on a customs union with Russia.