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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

https://nypost.com/2022/03/10/fuming-putin-fires-generals-over-ukraine-invasion-losses/

"Enraged Russian President Vladimir Putin has gone on a tear, firing as many as eight generals over Moscow’s military losses in the invasion of Ukraine, Kyiv’s defense chief claims.

Ukraine Defense Secretary Oleksiy Danilov made the claim on Ukrainian TV Wednesday, according to the newspaper Ukrayinska Pravda.

“[The enemy] had about 8 generals removed from their posts because they did not complete the task. New ones have been appointed,” Danilov said.

“We clearly understand what is happening in the Russian Federation,” he added. “What’s more, I can tell they’re desperate.”

The claims by Danilov come amid other indications that all is not well in Moscow..."


"While Putin is busy firing Russian generals, the Ukrainians have been hard at work killing them..."
Not sure which is worse, getting fired by Putin, or getting shot by a sniper in Ukraine. Although in all fairness, the severance package for anyone being fired by Putin might also include a shot in the head.

I get a little chuckle every time I read news like this, but I know it's not permanent. Putin replacing his generals means that he's at least trying to get his army's act together. And it will probably succeed to some extent, which means harder times for Ukraine. I think Russia can just keep on sending more people and intensify the bombing until he wins. Just like Stalin in WW2.
Maybe. But it’s a good sign. Every general that he fires is another who hates him. What do the front line troops fighting think of their generals or the new ones? Or do they even give a shit? Do they even know?

I’d bet quite a few of them are pissed at all of the generals right now. They were expecting a cake walk, to be welcomed. Now they’re suffering severe casualties. Worse than anything since WWII. Will they last?

Note how the tank column in ysterday’s video fled after their CO was killed. Junior officers don’t know how to take over and lead. There’s no initiative taken by the forces. Granted, the Ukrainians got lucky then. But when your soldiers are told only to obey, that’s all they do. Without orders they fall apart. They aren’t pressing the fight.

In WW2 in North Africa, the US army failed miserably at the battle of the Kasserine Pass. General George Patton was put in charge to straighten things out. This included firing a bunch of generals and other officers. The US army was green and inexperienced. Much like the Russian Army in Ukraine.
Yes, the Russians will most likely learn from their mistakes and will start getting better at killing people. You are correct to caution against optimism. However, there are many differences. The American soldiers in WW2 were motivated and had incredible support. The Russian economy is crumbling. Their war is run on lies that get exposed every day. The Russians have a shorter time frame. And I think and hope that they will fail.
 
https://nypost.com/2022/03/10/fuming-putin-fires-generals-over-ukraine-invasion-losses/

"Enraged Russian President Vladimir Putin has gone on a tear, firing as many as eight generals over Moscow’s military losses in the invasion of Ukraine, Kyiv’s defense chief claims.

Ukraine Defense Secretary Oleksiy Danilov made the claim on Ukrainian TV Wednesday, according to the newspaper Ukrayinska Pravda.

“[The enemy] had about 8 generals removed from their posts because they did not complete the task. New ones have been appointed,” Danilov said.

“We clearly understand what is happening in the Russian Federation,” he added. “What’s more, I can tell they’re desperate.”

The claims by Danilov come amid other indications that all is not well in Moscow..."


"While Putin is busy firing Russian generals, the Ukrainians have been hard at work killing them..."
Not sure which is worse, getting fired by Putin, or getting shot by a sniper in Ukraine. Although in all fairness, the severance package for anyone being fired by Putin might also include a shot in the head.

I get a little chuckle every time I read news like this, but I know it's not permanent. Putin replacing his generals means that he's at least trying to get his army's act together. And it will probably succeed to some extent, which means harder times for Ukraine. I think Russia can just keep on sending more people and intensify the bombing until he wins. Just like Stalin in WW2.
Maybe. But it’s a good sign. Every general that he fires is another who hates him. What do the front line troops fighting think of their generals or the new ones? Or do they even give a shit? Do they even know?

I’d bet quite a few of them are pissed at all of the generals right now. They were expecting a cake walk, to be welcomed. Now they’re suffering severe casualties. Worse than anything since WWII. Will they last?

Note how the tank column in ysterday’s video fled after their CO was killed. Junior officers don’t know how to take over and lead. There’s no initiative taken by the forces. Granted, the Ukrainians got lucky then. But when your soldiers are told only to obey, that’s all they do. Without orders they fall apart. They aren’t pressing the fight.

In WW2 in North Africa, the US army failed miserably at the battle of the Kasserine Pass. General George Patton was put in charge to straighten things out. This included firing a bunch of generals and other officers. The US army was green and inexperienced. Much like the Russian Army in Ukraine.
The US logistics system never failed at Kasserine pass. In fact, it’s what stopped the Germans from breaching Kasserine Pass. The German offensive made only brief gains before being chased back. In fact, the battle was long over within the almost four weeks that Russia has invaded Ukraine and gotten stuck there.

This isn't anything like that situation. Morale never cracked in the US Army. For the most part they retreated in good order, and then held the reformed line at Kasserine. They rushed artillery and supplies up and then drove them back. They then drove the Germans pretty much into an unwinnable spot above Tunis where they surrendered after evacuations failed.

Contrast that with the Russians. Russians are forced to stop and forage for food right now. They are forced to spend freezing nights in cold vehicles, or otherwise run out of gas. They are not pressing their fight at all, as the tank column going in Skybyn demonstrated. Their leadership model is a failure too. There’s no initiative by junior officers or NCO’s. They’ve been pretty much stuck for at least a week.

They aren’t likely to get their shit together against a determined and well armed foe that has the logistical support of the west. Weapons and aid are flowing into Ukraine, unlike the isolated Germans in Tunisia. It will likely take years for Russia to fix its logistical structure. They are wedded to a simplistic doctrine of stand back and bomb the crap out of the cities. But how long can they sustain that without seriously depleting their strategic reserves? can they build missiles as fast as they use them? I’m a little skeptical. This isn’t world war 2, and their economy isn’t on a war footing such that they can mass produce tanks, armored vehicles and missiles faster than they are being destroyed. It takes time for them to build up such capacities. According to one source, they’ve lost 5 billion dollars in equipment destroyed- not to mention about 12,000 KIA. How fast can they replace those losses?

Recall that after a few weeks of military action in Libya, and the US became concerned about their reserves of smart weapons. So I’m skeptical that Russia can sustain this offensive for several months without serious risk.
 

Read the thread for a great amount of hilarity.


Another good one. A squadron of Russian tanks pulled off into a field next to a tree line. They camped out there until they ran out of fuel to keep warm in freezing weather. When their fuel was used up and they were not resupplied, the Russians walked out and left their tanks and vehicles, 16 of them. Now in Ukrainian hands.

Man, it sounds like Russia is trying to pull a Trojan Horse. It'd be funny if lots of civilians weren't being killed.
 
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Adding to my previous post, I found out that it takes about five months to build a single Abrams M1 tank. The factory in Ohio doing this builds about 8 per month. I suspect Russian tanks aren’t being replaced at nearly the rate they’re being lost In Ukraine, or close to 100 a week. One analyst said they will effectively deplete their combat reserves after two months at most, and another said they will need to finish this up by the end of this week or pull back significantly.

But I suspect they can probably shell Kiev from afar for a long time.
 
Elements of the Ukrainian army are now warning the Russian troop in Ukraine that they will not take prisoners if they take artillery positions. They will summarily execute all. Officers, artillerymen, down to mere truck drivers. In retaliation for indiscriminate artillery fire into cities.

Ukraine is also removing all highway and street signs. Many Russian troops do not seem to have maps
 
https://nypost.com/2022/03/10/fuming-putin-fires-generals-over-ukraine-invasion-losses/

"Enraged Russian President Vladimir Putin has gone on a tear, firing as many as eight generals over Moscow’s military losses in the invasion of Ukraine, Kyiv’s defense chief claims.

Ukraine Defense Secretary Oleksiy Danilov made the claim on Ukrainian TV Wednesday, according to the newspaper Ukrayinska Pravda.

“[The enemy] had about 8 generals removed from their posts because they did not complete the task. New ones have been appointed,” Danilov said.

“We clearly understand what is happening in the Russian Federation,” he added. “What’s more, I can tell they’re desperate.”

The claims by Danilov come amid other indications that all is not well in Moscow..."


"While Putin is busy firing Russian generals, the Ukrainians have been hard at work killing them..."
Not sure which is worse, getting fired by Putin, or getting shot by a sniper in Ukraine. Although in all fairness, the severance package for anyone being fired by Putin might also include a shot in the head.

I get a little chuckle every time I read news like this, but I know it's not permanent. Putin replacing his generals means that he's at least trying to get his army's act together. And it will probably succeed to some extent, which means harder times for Ukraine. I think Russia can just keep on sending more people and intensify the bombing until he wins. Just like Stalin in WW2.
Maybe. But it’s a good sign. Every general that he fires is another who hates him. What do the front line troops fighting think of their generals or the new ones? Or do they even give a shit? Do they even know?

I’d bet quite a few of them are pissed at all of the generals right now. They were expecting a cake walk, to be welcomed. Now they’re suffering severe casualties. Worse than anything since WWII. Will they last?

Note how the tank column in ysterday’s video fled after their CO was killed. Junior officers don’t know how to take over and lead. There’s no initiative taken by the forces. Granted, the Ukrainians got lucky then. But when your soldiers are told only to obey, that’s all they do. Without orders they fall apart. They aren’t pressing the fight.

In WW2 in North Africa, the US army failed miserably at the battle of the Kasserine Pass. General George Patton was put in charge to straighten things out. This included firing a bunch of generals and other officers. The US army was green and inexperienced. Much like the Russian Army in Ukraine.
The US logistics system never failed at Kasserine pass. In fact, it’s what stopped the Germans from breaching Kasserine Pass. The German offensive made only brief gains before being chased back. In fact, the battle was long over within the almost four weeks that Russia has invaded Ukraine and gotten stuck there.

This isn't anything like that situation. Morale never cracked in the US Army. For the most part they retreated in good order, and then held the reformed line at Kasserine. They rushed artillery and supplies up and then drove them back. They then drove the Germans pretty much into an unwinnable spot above Tunis where they surrendered after evacuations failed.

Contrast that with the Russians. Russians are forced to stop and forage for food right now. They are forced to spend freezing nights in cold vehicles, or otherwise run out of gas. They are not pressing their fight at all, as the tank column going in Skybyn demonstrated. Their leadership model is a failure too. There’s no initiative by junior officers or NCO’s. They’ve been pretty much stuck for at least a week.

They aren’t likely to get their shit together against a determined and well armed foe that has the logistical support of the west. Weapons and aid are flowing into Ukraine, unlike the isolated Germans in Tunisia. It will likely take years for Russia to fix its logistical structure. They are wedded to a simplistic doctrine of stand back and bomb the crap out of the cities. But how long can they sustain that without seriously depleting their strategic reserves? can they build missiles as fast as they use them? I’m a little skeptical. This isn’t world war 2, and their economy isn’t on a war footing such that they can mass produce tanks, armored vehicles and missiles faster than they are being destroyed. It takes time for them to build up such capacities. According to one source, they’ve lost 5 billion dollars in equipment destroyed- not to mention about 12,000 KIA. How fast can they replace those losses?

Recall that after a few weeks of military action in Libya, and the US became concerned about their reserves of smart weapons. So I’m skeptical that Russia can sustain this offensive for several months without serious risk.

I have seen a report from a retired American general that Russia has now used "55% of their military force" in Ukraine. I do not know how accurate this is. But Russia has to keep troops in Russia. For example on the borders with China and in places like around Chechnya. They keep their best and most well trained elite forces around Moscow. If so, they will quickly be facing serious manpower shortages trying to subdue Ukraine with 44.5 million people and an area almost as big as Texas.

Russian tanks usually have reactive armor. Steel plates sandwiching explosives to stop shaped charge anti-tank weapons. These are hung in canvas bags on sides of their tanks. Several you tube videos show destroyed Russian tanks whose bags of active armor seem to be empty bags without their reactive armor components. Somebody has screwed up biggly.

Youtube seems to have lots of videos from Ukraine demonstrating Russian failures and atrocities. Plus a few entertaining features such as Ukranian soldiers taking joy rides on abandoned Russian tanks.
 
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Ukraine is also removing all highway and street signs. Many Russian troops do not seem to have maps

Road signs? What is this 1943?

Not one of them has even a handheld GPS or smartphone?

Which makes me wonder, who controls the GPS satellites over Ukraine anyway?

Smartphones in Ukraine can get a Russian killed. With Russian encrypted communications systems failing in Ukraine, using cell phones allows GPS tracking and accurate artillery fire. That has already gotten at least on Russian general killed.
 
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Elements of the Ukrainian army are now warning the Russian troop in Ukraine that they will not take prisoners if they take artillery positions. They will summarily execute all. Officers, artillerymen, down to mere truck drivers. In retaliation for indiscriminate artillery fire into cities.

Ukraine is also removing all highway and street signs. Many Russian troops do not seem to have maps

They should have GPS, though.
 
Ukraine is also removing all highway and street signs. Many Russian troops do not seem to have maps

Road signs? What is this 1943?

Not one of them has even a handheld GPS or smartphone?

Which makes me wonder, who controls the GPS satellites over Ukraine anyway?

Smartphones in Ukraine can get a Russian killed. With Russian encrypted communications systems failing in Ukraine, using cell phones allows GPS tracking and accurate artillery fire. That has already gotten at least on Russian general killed.

GPS works even with your transmitters off. It's not exactly unusual for us hikers to turn off the transmitters to save battery power when there's nothing around they can talk to.
 
Russia has is own navigation system. I doubt Russian soldiers would be allowed to carry cell/smart phones on deployment. It would allow pictures.


In the news, Germany has ordered 36 advanced US fighters and says it will be more active in NATO.

If Putin's goal is to split NATO he most certainly blundered.

GPS uses digital spread spectrum techniques as do cell phones. Hard but not impossible to jam. Not like jamming FM or AM radio.
 

Russian journalist who protested Ukraine war on live TV says she was held for questioning for over 14 hours​

Russian journalist Marina Ovsyannikova, who held an anti-war protest on live state TV, told media she was questioned by authorities for over 14 hours and wasn’t allowed legal counsel.

Ovsyannikova was found guilty on Tuesday of an administrative offense by a Moscow court for a video statement that called for Russians to protest.

She had recorded it prior to appearing with an anti-war poster on Channel One.

“Those were indeed very difficult days of my life. I literally spent two days with no sleep. The questioning lasted over 14 hours, I wasn’t allowed to contact my relatives or friends, I wasn’t provided with any legal assistance. So I am in quite a difficult position,” Ovsyannikova told the media following a court hearing.
Update:
A Russian journalist has been fined and released after she protested against the war in Ukraine on a live TV news programme and made an anti-war video.
Marina Ovsyannikova, an editor at state-controlled Channel 1, was detained after she ran on to the set on Monday holding a sign saying "no war".
She said she had been questioned for 14 hours and not slept for two days, and was not given access to legal help.
The 30,000 rouble (£214; $280) fine relates to her video message.
She had pleaded not guilty to the charge of organising an unauthorised public event.
In the video, she called on the Russian people to protest against the war, saying only they have the power to "stop all this madness".
Thank goodness. I feared she would never be seen again.
 
Thank goodness. I feared she would never be seen again.
It's not over yet. She is still under investigation under the new draconian law that could sentence her to years in prison. Hopefully, they'll let it drop, but Putin is not one to let these matters slide. She could also be murdered at some time in the future, as have other journalists that have publicly defied him.
 
https://nypost.com/2022/03/10/fuming-putin-fires-generals-over-ukraine-invasion-losses/

"Enraged Russian President Vladimir Putin has gone on a tear, firing as many as eight generals over Moscow’s military losses in the invasion of Ukraine, Kyiv’s defense chief claims.

Ukraine Defense Secretary Oleksiy Danilov made the claim on Ukrainian TV Wednesday, according to the newspaper Ukrayinska Pravda.

“[The enemy] had about 8 generals removed from their posts because they did not complete the task. New ones have been appointed,” Danilov said.

“We clearly understand what is happening in the Russian Federation,” he added. “What’s more, I can tell they’re desperate.”

The claims by Danilov come amid other indications that all is not well in Moscow..."


"While Putin is busy firing Russian generals, the Ukrainians have been hard at work killing them..."
Not sure which is worse, getting fired by Putin, or getting shot by a sniper in Ukraine. Although in all fairness, the severance package for anyone being fired by Putin might also include a shot in the head.

I get a little chuckle every time I read news like this, but I know it's not permanent. Putin replacing his generals means that he's at least trying to get his army's act together. And it will probably succeed to some extent, which means harder times for Ukraine. I think Russia can just keep on sending more people and intensify the bombing until he wins. Just like Stalin in WW2.
Maybe. But it’s a good sign. Every general that he fires is another who hates him. What do the front line troops fighting think of their generals or the new ones? Or do they even give a shit? Do they even know?

I’d bet quite a few of them are pissed at all of the generals right now. They were expecting a cake walk, to be welcomed. Now they’re suffering severe casualties. Worse than anything since WWII. Will they last?

Note how the tank column in ysterday’s video fled after their CO was killed. Junior officers don’t know how to take over and lead. There’s no initiative taken by the forces. Granted, the Ukrainians got lucky then. But when your soldiers are told only to obey, that’s all they do. Without orders they fall apart. They aren’t pressing the fight.

In WW2 in North Africa, the US army failed miserably at the battle of the Kasserine Pass. General George Patton was put in charge to straighten things out. This included firing a bunch of generals and other officers. The US army was green and inexperienced. Much like the Russian Army in Ukraine.
The US logistics system never failed at Kasserine pass. In fact, it’s what stopped the Germans from breaching Kasserine Pass. The German offensive made only brief gains before being chased back. In fact, the battle was long over within the almost four weeks that Russia has invaded Ukraine and gotten stuck there.

This isn't anything like that situation. Morale never cracked in the US Army. For the most part they retreated in good order, and then held the reformed line at Kasserine. They rushed artillery and supplies up and then drove them back. They then drove the Germans pretty much into an unwinnable spot above Tunis where they surrendered after evacuations failed.

Contrast that with the Russians. Russians are forced to stop and forage for food right now. They are forced to spend freezing nights in cold vehicles, or otherwise run out of gas. They are not pressing their fight at all, as the tank column going in Skybyn demonstrated. Their leadership model is a failure too. There’s no initiative by junior officers or NCO’s. They’ve been pretty much stuck for at least a week.

They aren’t likely to get their shit together against a determined and well armed foe that has the logistical support of the west. Weapons and aid are flowing into Ukraine, unlike the isolated Germans in Tunisia. It will likely take years for Russia to fix its logistical structure. They are wedded to a simplistic doctrine of stand back and bomb the crap out of the cities. But how long can they sustain that without seriously depleting their strategic reserves? can they build missiles as fast as they use them? I’m a little skeptical. This isn’t world war 2, and their economy isn’t on a war footing such that they can mass produce tanks, armored vehicles and missiles faster than they are being destroyed. It takes time for them to build up such capacities. According to one source, they’ve lost 5 billion dollars in equipment destroyed- not to mention about 12,000 KIA. How fast can they replace those losses?

Recall that after a few weeks of military action in Libya, and the US became concerned about their reserves of smart weapons. So I’m skeptical that Russia can sustain this offensive for several months without serious risk.
The Next Ten Days Will Decide This War.

Retired Lieut. General Ben Hodges, Pershing Chair in Strategic Studies at the Center for European Policy Analysis has some good news.
 
Recall that after a few weeks of military action in Libya, and the US became concerned about their reserves of smart weapons. So I’m skeptical that Russia can sustain this offensive for several months without serious risk.
It doesn’t need to. This isn’t a war of conquest or extermination. This is a punitive incursion to force Ukraine to accept terms Russia has openly stated. The Ukrainians may be able to hold off further Russian advancement - there are logistical and supply issues - but can they retake what Russia gained? No. This war started eight years ago and will end as it began: Crimea and the breakway Donbas regions to Russia and no NATO. All of the death and destruction is so pointless.
 
Recall that after a few weeks of military action in Libya, and the US became concerned about their reserves of smart weapons. So I’m skeptical that Russia can sustain this offensive for several months without serious risk.
It doesn’t need to. This isn’t a war of conquest or extermination. This is a punitive incursion to force Ukraine to accept terms Russia has openly stated. The Ukrainians may be able to hold off further Russian advancement - there are logistical and supply issues - but can they retake what Russia gained? No. This war started eight years ago and will end as it began: Crimea and the breakway Donbas regions to Russia and no NATO. All of the death and destruction is so pointless.
I don't agree with your assessment of the causes, which are not really as stated publicly by Putin. The war really began in Putin's mind when Yanukovych was ousted by a popular revolution--the Euromaidan. He invaded Crimea and the Donbas shortly afterwards. Putin has made no secret of the irredentist nature of his motivations. He wants to reclaim what he perceives as lost territory--Ukraine and Belarus. NATO is a factor, but everyone already knew that Ukraine wasn't being invited into NATO. In fact, Zelensky has just conceded that Ukraine won't join NATO, but that won't stop the war. The main driver here is a desire for regime change in the near future, because this is really all about defiance of Vladimir Putin and his irredentist fantasies. The punishment delivered by targeting of civilian, as opposed to military, targets is designed to break the will of Ukraine to resist. And Russia did not plan for a long war. This whole thing was supposed to be over in a matter of days. That's why his army is running out of food and fuel so quickly. They are even abandoning armored vehicles in full working order for lack of fuel. Nothing is going as planned.
 
Recall that after a few weeks of military action in Libya, and the US became concerned about their reserves of smart weapons. So I’m skeptical that Russia can sustain this offensive for several months without serious risk.
It doesn’t need to. This isn’t a war of conquest or extermination. This is a punitive incursion to force Ukraine to accept terms Russia has openly stated. The Ukrainians may be able to hold off further Russian advancement - there are logistical and supply issues - but can they retake what Russia gained? No. This war started eight years ago and will end as it began: Crimea and the breakway Donbas regions to Russia and no NATO. All of the death and destruction is so pointless.
I don't agree with your assessment of the causes, which are not really as stated publicly by Putin. The war really began in Putin's mind when Yanukovych was ousted by a popular revolution--the Euromaidan. He invaded Crimea and the Donbas shortly afterwards. Putin has made no secret of the irredentist nature of his motivations. He wants to reclaim what he perceives as lost territory--Ukraine and Belarus. NATO is a factor, but everyone already knew that Ukraine wasn't being invited into NATO. In fact, Zelensky has just conceded that Ukraine won't join NATO, but that won't stop the war. The main driver here is a desire for regime change in the near future, because this is really all about defiance of Vladimir Putin and his irredentist fantasies. The punishment delivered by targeting of civilian, as opposed to military, targets is designed to break the will of Ukraine to resist. And Russia did not plan for a long war. This whole thing was supposed to be over in a matter of days. That's why his army is running out of food and fuel so quickly. They are even abandoning armored vehicles in full working order for lack of fuel. Nothing is going as planned.
Putin didn’t invade the Donbas in 2014. Those were breakaway ethnically Russian regions. Neither side abided by the Minsk agreements; Ukraine kept shelling and the rebels shot back. But the end result of the war will still be the same. The US and the West should hasten diplomacy on both sides to bring this to a rapid conclusion. Yet, there is no leadership on that. And more die pointlessly
 
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