How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Copernicus]

...
China and the US both have a tremendous amount of leverage on each other. The US depends on Chinese exports for so many things, thanks to our policy of allowing the export of our manufacturing facilities to countries that are less concerned about environmental pollution than the US is. But their economy now produces a lot of consumer products for which the US is one of the biggest single markets, as SLD's graph showed. So I don't understand why you consider China beyond the reach of our influence.

Because our stuff is being made there. Pressure on China would take a lot more time to be felt. Most of the world has abandoned Russia economically. We've struck Russia economically with a speed and ferocity never seen before which is why Russia is very quickly feeling that impact.

But our stuff is not being made there for free. That's the point. And China is actually better than Russia at thinking about its long term interests. Putin is like a kid in a toy store when it comes to impulse control. China is already looking at economic sanctions and understands how to play that game. The goal is not to destroy the West or restart the Cold War. Trade is a much bigger issue for China than Russia, with its reliance on basically just one product--oil and gas resources. The reason Russia got hit so quickly was that it had never really played the long game, so other countries had less to lose by cutting it off. That doesn't mean that China can go ahead and invade Taiwan without worrying about the chaos that would ensue.

The Chinese economy is already under a lot of stress, and the Russian mess isn't really helping them in any significant way other than to increase their dominance over Russia, which has been a threat to them at many times in the past. This is an opportunity for China, but not one with unlimited benefits. They need Western markets even more than Russia does.

But we have no immediate alternatives, so our markets are still going to be there for China.

Again, you keep thinking about the short term consequences of behavior. It's the long term that worries both China and the US. It isn't in China's interest to drive us to seek long term alternatives either. China and the US understand the long term mutual benefit of trade and commerce. Putin has never thought very far ahead. He is a better tactician than a strategist. He plays poker, not chess.

 

[SLD]

So now it appears Russia will default on its debt for the first time since the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917. Wow!

Russia could default on its debt within days

Russia has sent the clearest signal yet that it will soon default — the first time it will have failed to meet its foreign debt obligations since the Bolshevik revolution more than a century ago.

www.cnn.com

This will have serious economic repercussions. But will it be enough to trigger a coup or uprising against Putin?

Probably not in the short term, but with the recent arrest of his FSB senior officer, one has to wonder if the cracks in the dam will get wider and wider.

He’ll probably try to set an artificial ruble to dollar exchange rate and pay in rubles. That won’t work though. It will cause massive disruptions to the economy, and push China ever further away.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

So now it appears Russia will default on its debt for the first time since the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917. Wow!

Russia could default on its debt within days

Russia has sent the clearest signal yet that it will soon default — the first time it will have failed to meet its foreign debt obligations since the Bolshevik revolution more than a century ago.

www.cnn.com

This will have serious economic repercussions. But will it be enough to trigger a coup or uprising against Putin?

Probably not in the short term, but with the recent arrest of his FSB senior officer, one has to wonder if the cracks in the dam will get wider and wider.

He’ll probably try to set an artificial ruble to dollar exchange rate and pay in rubles. That won’t work though. It will cause massive disruptions to the economy, and push China ever further away.

In an absolutely and completely unrelated report, Trump has put every property he has up for sale. No bigley offer will be refused.

 

[Elixir]

Trump has put every property he has up for sale.

He'd probably pay you a hundred bucks to take it all and assume all his debt. Or at least promise you the hundred bucks...

 

[marc]

A French activist has apparently broken into a villa belonging to Putin’s daughter, and changed the locks. He has invited Ukrainian refugees to move in. According to the article, French law makes it difficult to evict squatters from a person’s second home. So I guess this means Ukrainians are now in the process of taking Russian territory.

Activist Changes Locks On Putin's Daughter's French Villa

Pierre Afner has invited Ukrainian refugees to stay there.

crooksandliars.com

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[Copernicus]

I also posted this in the Russia censorship thread. The Russian says: "Stop the war. Don't believe propaganda. Here there are lies." So it is a pretty direct message that Russia One is delivering propaganda and lies. The woman protester, an employee at the station, has two young children and will almost certainly be sentenced to years in prison.

 

[ZiprHead]

I also posted this in the Russia censorship thread. The Russian says: "Stop the war. Don't believe propaganda. Here there are lies." So it is a pretty direct message that Russia One is delivering propaganda and lies. The woman protester, an employee at the station, has two young children and will almost certainly be sentenced to years in prison.

I wonder if that woman will ever be seen again.

 

[Thomas II]

 

[Copernicus]

The sign that the first woman flashed was literally just two words. "Два слова" (dva slova) means "two words" in English. It's almost as if they staged this to make Russian security forces look like clowns, but it might not have been so funny for her later. The interviewer called her "a crazy woman" and laughed. The second was hauled off before she could give her opinion. Even if the video is presented as evidence in court, they could still be found guilty of participating in an unauthorized public demonstration, even if it was just to provoke the police into doing something absurd.

 

[Jayjay]

That was very efficient. How come they didn't take the guy recording it?

 

[blastula]

Russian state TV editor interrupts live news broadcast with anti-war message — Meduza

meduza.io

That lady who interrupted the news is Marina Ovsyannikova, a Russian TV editor, and recorded an earlier video explaining herself.

“What is happening in Ukraine is a crime. And Russia is the aggressor here. And responsibility for this aggression rests on the conscience of a single man: Vladimir Putin. My father is Ukrainian. My mother is Russian. And they’ve never been enemies. And this necklace I’m wearing is a symbol of that fact that Russia must immediately end this fratricidal war. And our fraternal peoples will still be able to make peace. Unfortunately, I’ve spent many of the last few years working for Channel One, doing Kremlin propaganda, and I’m deeply ashamed of this. Ashamed that I allowed lies to come from the TV screen. Ashamed that I allowed the zombification of Russian people. We were silent in 2014 when all this had just started. We didn’t protest when the Kremlin poisoned Navalny. We just silently watched this anti-human regime at work. And now the whole world has turned its back on us. And the next 10 generations won’t wash away the stain of this fratricidal war. We Russians are thinking and intelligent people. It’s in our power alone to stop all this madness. Go protest. Don’t be afraid of anything. They can’t lock us all away.”

No lies detected.

 

[Copernicus]

She exemplifies Putin's problem. Russia and Ukraine are intertwined. Her father is Ukrainian and her mother Russian. There are so many people in both countries with those ties. Putin miscalculated that these ties would make a military takeover relatively easy, because many, if not most, Ukrainians would want to be joined with Russia. And he saw Ukraine slipping further and further away after the 2014 Euromaidan revolution. Now he has to contend with all of those Russians in his country who have strong ties to Ukraine and can find out what is really going on. He did not see this coming.

 

[Jayjay]

The sad part is that Putin has painted himself in a corner. Even if he wins the war, he can't force the sanctions to be lifted overnight. Russian economy will tank. And he can't ease on the propaganda front because if foreign news sources or independent local news is ever allowed again, the Russian people would be flooded with images of bombings and dead bodies in Ukraine. So he has to keep the country under lockdown indefinitely. The only straw he has left is that if he can sell a decisive victory in Ukraine, everything will be forgiven eventually, and I think that's what he's going for.

I'm not too optimistic yet, because militarily Russia is still pretty strong, despite all the mismanagement. They seem to have slowed down, but not stopped, and the bombings will continue. If I had to guess I'd say Putin hasn't given up on any of his goals for the war, even if it does seem like it'll take a lot longer than he hoped.

 

[Copernicus]

But a decisive victory won't stop those images and videos from eventually getting through. There may be temporary barriers in place now, but they can't last forever. And all of this is being very graphically recorded outside of Russia. So there really isn't any straw left for Putin. He may not be willing to admit that to himself yet, but he can't hold back the flood of information forever. The fact is that he probably doesn't see much of what is going on in the Western media. He is inside of his own propaganda bubble, and the people around him aren't about to slap him awake. He is in a worse position than he probably realizes.

 

[Jayjay]

Over 40,000 Syrians have registered to travel to Ukraine and fight for Russia, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a Syrian non-governmental group. The group said Monday that no fighters had left Syria so far.

Among those being targeted for recruitment, SOHR said that a notice had been sent out to members of the Al-Qatarji militia — a group that has been sanctioned by the United States for serving as an intermediary between the Assad regime and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) — letting them know that they could sign up to be "mercenaries" for Russia in Ukraine.

Payment for the work was rumored to be between $1,500 and $2,500, SOHR said, though no figure had been confirmed.

Over 40,000 Syrians reportedly register to fight for Russia in Ukraine

A notice was sent out to members of a militia that has been sanctioned by the U.S. for serving as an intermediary between the Assad regime and ISIS, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

www.cbsnews.com

It's about to get messy. Well, in a few weeks that it takes to train these mercenaries anyway. The language barrier means they'll not be able to take orders in Russian, which makes them a bit unreliable, but on the plus side they have no qualms about killing civilians that Russian troops might have. And they're not going to call back home to their moms in St. Peterburg or Moscow and whine about it.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

https://nypost.com/2022/03/10/fuming-putin-fires-generals-over-ukraine-invasion-losses/

"Enraged Russian President Vladimir Putin has gone on a tear, firing as many as eight generals over Moscow’s military losses in the invasion of Ukraine, Kyiv’s defense chief claims.

Ukraine Defense Secretary Oleksiy Danilov made the claim on Ukrainian TV Wednesday, according to the newspaper Ukrayinska Pravda.

“[The enemy] had about 8 generals removed from their posts because they did not complete the task. New ones have been appointed,” Danilov said.

“We clearly understand what is happening in the Russian Federation,” he added. “What’s more, I can tell they’re desperate.”

The claims by Danilov come amid other indications that all is not well in Moscow..."


"While Putin is busy firing Russian generals, the Ukrainians have been hard at work killing them..."

Not sure which is worse, getting fired by Putin, or getting shot by a sniper in Ukraine. Although in all fairness, the severance package for anyone being fired by Putin might also include a shot in the head.

I get a little chuckle every time I read news like this, but I know it's not permanent. Putin replacing his generals means that he's at least trying to get his army's act together. And it will probably succeed to some extent, which means harder times for Ukraine. I think Russia can just keep on sending more people and intensify the bombing until he wins. Just like Stalin in WW2.

Maybe. But it’s a good sign. Every general that he fires is another who hates him. What do the front line troops fighting think of their generals or the new ones? Or do they even give a shit? Do they even know?

I’d bet quite a few of them are pissed at all of the generals right now. They were expecting a cake walk, to be welcomed. Now they’re suffering severe casualties. Worse than anything since WWII. Will they last?

Note how the tank column in ysterday’s video fled after their CO was killed. Junior officers don’t know how to take over and lead. There’s no initiative taken by the forces. Granted, the Ukrainians got lucky then. But when your soldiers are told only to obey, that’s all they do. Without orders they fall apart. They aren’t pressing the fight.

In WW2 in North Africa, the US army failed miserably at the battle of the Kasserine Pass. General George Patton was put in charge to straighten things out. This included firing a bunch of generals and other officers. The US army was green and inexperienced. Much like the Russian Army in Ukraine.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Read the thread for a great amount of hilarity.

Another good one. A squadron of Russian tanks pulled off into a field next to a tree line. They camped out there until they ran out of fuel to keep warm in freezing weather. When their fuel was used up and they were not resupplied, the Russians walked out and left their tanks and vehicles, 16 of them. Now in Ukrainian hands.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Well, most of the west has stepped up to challenge Russian imperialism. While Russian bombs the shit out of Ukraine, killing civilians at random; Poland does everything that it can to welcome the refugees. Check out the below:

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-re...ral-video-applause-support-classmates-1687645

Once this war is over, do you think that the Ukrainians will trust Russia or the west? Russia is creating a generation (s) of people who will hate Russia, and will embrace the west.

BTW: the story above is from Italy not Poland (my fault). The whole world is embracing Ukraine and its refugees and offering support any way that they can. While the Russians continue to bomb and kill civilians. And yet it is the Russians who claim that they are the victims.

 

[Elixir]

Russians continue to bomb and kill civilians. And yet it is the Russians who claim that they are the victims.

Yeh, kinda funny that anyone wonders where zTrump gets his ideas.