How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Jayjay]

Moscow asking Beijing for military help - reports

Russia is asking China for both military and economic assistance, according to reports in the Financial Times and New York Times newspapers.

Moscow wants Beijing to provide military supplies to use in Ukraine, the FT says.

Citing unnamed US officials, the FT reported that Russia had been requesting Chinese equipment since the start of the invasion. The officials declined to specify what kind of equipment Russia is seeking.

The report added that there were indications that China may be preparing to help.

A separate report in the New York Times - again citing US officials - alleges Russia is also asking for economic assistance to mitigate the impact of sanctions.

China has so far sought to portray itself as neutral in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and has not condemned the invasion.

On Monday US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan is expected to hold talks with a top Chinese foreign policy official, Yang Jiechi, in Rome.

Speaking to NBC on Sunday, Sullivan said the US would "ensure that China nor anyone else" can compensate Russia for its economic losses.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60717902

Wow, that's stunning. Again, China isn't getting much from Russia. What is Russia offering to get arms from China? Surely not rubles! China is helping Russia now for some reason, but it will come at a steep a cost in the future.

Oil and gas. And rare earth minerals (though China has those, but you can never have enough).

China has a lot to gain from keeping Russia around. Without Russia, Xi knows that China would be the number one target. But as long as there is one even worse dictator messing with EU and US and keeping them busy. I think China is going to keep supplying Russia under the table, just little enough not to cause massive sanctions on Chinese banks or institutions.

 

[Jayjay]

It seems that there might be weak signals for negotiations from both sides:

First Russia "Issued Ultimatums". Now...: Ukraine's Zelensky On Talks

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Saturday that Russia, which invaded his country on February 24, had adopted a "fundamentally different approach" in talks to end the conflict.

www.ndtv.com

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Saturday that Russia, which invaded his country on February 24, had adopted a "fundamentally different approach" in talks to end the conflict.

In a media briefing, Zelensky said that the approach was in contrast to earlier talks at which Moscow only "issued ultimatums" and that he was "happy to have a signal from Russia" after President Vladimir Putin said he saw "some positive shifts" in their dialogue.

Putin indicated previously that negotiations are "now being held on an almost daily basis".

Ukraine is going to need to swallow rather big concessions, if it wants to remain sovereign, but it's their problem and it'll at least stop the killing. I don't have high hopes for first round yielding the final results though, the two sides are still too far apart.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

I think we're seeing the same thing we saw from the North during Vietnam. The Pig will not stop until he is stopped from within or until he has the whole enchilada. There is not enough political will for the Russian Pig to be stopped from within so talks are just for show while he takes more and more.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Moscow asking Beijing for military help - reports

Russia is asking China for both military and economic assistance, according to reports in the Financial Times and New York Times newspapers.

Moscow wants Beijing to provide military supplies to use in Ukraine, the FT says.

Citing unnamed US officials, the FT reported that Russia had been requesting Chinese equipment since the start of the invasion. The officials declined to specify what kind of equipment Russia is seeking.

The report added that there were indications that China may be preparing to help.

A separate report in the New York Times - again citing US officials - alleges Russia is also asking for economic assistance to mitigate the impact of sanctions.

China has so far sought to portray itself as neutral in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and has not condemned the invasion.

On Monday US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan is expected to hold talks with a top Chinese foreign policy official, Yang Jiechi, in Rome.

Speaking to NBC on Sunday, Sullivan said the US would "ensure that China nor anyone else" can compensate Russia for its economic losses.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60717902

Wow, that's stunning. Again, China isn't getting much from Russia. What is Russia offering to get arms from China? Surely not rubles! China is helping Russia now for some reason, but it will come at a steep a cost in the future.

Oil and gas. And rare earth minerals (though China has those, but you can never have enough).

China has a lot to gain from keeping Russia around. Without Russia, Xi knows that China would be the number one target. But as long as there is one even worse dictator messing with EU and US and keeping them busy. I think China is going to keep supplying Russia under the table, just little enough not to cause massive sanctions on Chinese banks or institutions.

China was getting oil, gas, and rare minerals before the Ukranian invasion. But today, the costs have exploded. Cost per barrel has more than doubled.

 

[bilby]

I don't fully understand Trausti's misplaced loyalty to Russia. I can understand his emotional love because it is really just hatred toward losing elections here in the U.S. Saying it's NATO, NATO, NATO is like listening to Hitler's pounding the podium saying it's the JEW It's the JEW, It's the JEW. Okay, so madmen have their enemies which works to rile people up and make them all feel butthurt. But you'd think his intellectual capacities would kick in and override the emotional stupidity. That apparently doesn't happen with some people, madness simply prevails.

Related to the above, I've also never understood why the Trumplibicans want a weaker NATO?

Same reason they hate the UN - The very existence of international law, or of supra-national organisations, constrains the dictatorial powers of the supreme leader President of the United States

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Ukraine is going to need to swallow rather big concessions, if it wants to remain sovereign, but it's their problem and it'll at least stop the killing. I don't have high hopes for first round yielding the final results though, the two sides are still too far apart.

Ukraine can't make concessions--that would just result in them being even weaker in round three.

 

[ZiprHead]

Moscow asking Beijing for military help - reports

Russia is asking China for both military and economic assistance, according to reports in the Financial Times and New York Times newspapers.

Moscow wants Beijing to provide military supplies to use in Ukraine, the FT says.

Citing unnamed US officials, the FT reported that Russia had been requesting Chinese equipment since the start of the invasion. The officials declined to specify what kind of equipment Russia is seeking.

The report added that there were indications that China may be preparing to help.

A separate report in the New York Times - again citing US officials - alleges Russia is also asking for economic assistance to mitigate the impact of sanctions.

China has so far sought to portray itself as neutral in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and has not condemned the invasion.

On Monday US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan is expected to hold talks with a top Chinese foreign policy official, Yang Jiechi, in Rome.

Speaking to NBC on Sunday, Sullivan said the US would "ensure that China nor anyone else" can compensate Russia for its economic losses.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60717902

Wow, that's stunning. Again, China isn't getting much from Russia. What is Russia offering to get arms from China? Surely not rubles! China is helping Russia now for some reason, but it will come at a steep a cost in the future.

Oil and gas. And rare earth minerals (though China has those, but you can never have enough).

China has a lot to gain from keeping Russia around. Without Russia, Xi knows that China would be the number one target. But as long as there is one even worse dictator messing with EU and US and keeping them busy. I think China is going to keep supplying Russia under the table, just little enough not to cause massive sanctions on Chinese banks or institutions.

China was getting oil, gas, and rare minerals before the Ukranian invasion. But today, the costs have exploded. Cost per barrel has more than doubled.

Russia is selling it's oils and gas at a huge discount to get reluctant buyers to buy.

China also would have to deal with alienating the costumers of its manufactured products world wide.

 

[Jayjay]

Ukraine is going to need to swallow rather big concessions, if it wants to remain sovereign, but it's their problem and it'll at least stop the killing. I don't have high hopes for first round yielding the final results though, the two sides are still too far apart.

Ukraine can't make concessions--that would just result in them being even weaker in round three.

There isn't going to be a round three if round two lasts too long. I'm afraid Ukraine will be made to bend the knee to emperor Putin.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Well, most of the west has stepped up to challenge Russian imperialism. While Russian bombs the shit out of Ukraine, killing civilians at random; Poland does everything that it can to welcome the refugees. Check out the below:

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-re...ral-video-applause-support-classmates-1687645

Once this war is over, do you think that the Ukrainians will trust Russia or the west? Russia is creating a generation (s) of people who will hate Russia, and will embrace the west.

 

[SLD]

I think one of the most important tools in stopping Russia is China. China is in a bind. Putin only went in there with Xi’s blessing. Xi wants cheap oil and gas from Russia. But he can’t risk trade relations with the United States. And as this article explains, any Chinese company who violates are sanctions will lose access to the United States.

Why China Will Not Save Russia - Evergreen Gavekal

Not long before Russia invaded Ukraine, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin met in Beijing and declared the friendship between their countries had “no limits”. Russia is likely finding out now that this “future oriented strategic partnership” is in fact limited.

blog.evergreengavekal.com

This graph shows the danger to China. They’ve got about 1.5 trillion in trade that is threatened if they go too far in their support for Russia. Russia is a trivial $60 billion.



I see a sort of end of WWII scenario where, Japan desperately tried to use the Soviet Union to help negotiate an end to the war. When rebuffed they knew what would happen next and that pushed them much further towards accepting surrender. I could see Xi make a command decision to tell the Russians to stop it and the psychological blow would be huge for Russia.

 

[Harry Bosch]

I think one of the most important tools in stopping Russia is China. China is in a bind. Putin only went in there with Xi’s blessing. Xi wants cheap oil and gas from Russia. But he can’t risk trade relations with the United States. And as this article explains, any Chinese company who violates are sanctions will lose access to the United States.

Why China Will Not Save Russia - Evergreen Gavekal

Not long before Russia invaded Ukraine, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin met in Beijing and declared the friendship between their countries had “no limits”. Russia is likely finding out now that this “future oriented strategic partnership” is in fact limited.

blog.evergreengavekal.com

This graph shows the danger to China. They’ve got about 1.5 trillion in trade that is threatened if they go too far in their support for Russia. Russia is a trivial $60 billion.

View attachment 37730

I see a sort of end of WWII scenario where, Japan desperately tried to use the Soviet Union to help negotiate an end to the war. When rebuffed they knew what would happen next and that pushed them much further towards accepting surrender. I could see Xi make a command decision to tell the Russians to stop it and the psychological blow would be huge for Russia.

Great post. And I agree. China's trade with Europe is also at stake. China is probably the only entity that could force Putin to stop the war (or at least negotiate in good faith).

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

BWAHAHAHAHA!!! Yeah, America will just stop buying stuff made in China.

And we'll have 100% safe and effective and efficient fusion in the coming weeks. Any economic impacts our trade policies with China would have would be several years down the road.

 

[SLD]

BWAHAHAHAHA!!! Yeah, America will just stop buying stuff made in China.

And we'll have 100% safe and effective and efficient fusion in the coming weeks. Any economic impacts our trade policies with China would have would be several years down the road.

That’s not the argument. The US and other nations will sanction Chinese companies that do business with Russia in violation of the sanctions. And they will choose the US over Russia. Their own government will tell them to and that has happened before. China will sell Putin out.

 

[Harry Bosch]

BWAHAHAHAHA!!! Yeah, America will just stop buying stuff made in China.

And we'll have 100% safe and effective and efficient fusion in the coming weeks. Any economic impacts our trade policies with China would have would be several years down the road.

That’s not the argument. The US and other nations will sanction Chinese companies that do business with Russia in violation of the sanctions. And they will choose the US over Russia. Their own government will tell them to and that has happened before. China will sell Putin out.

At the end of the day, we just have to hope that China will put its own interests ahead of Russia's interest. And that the west offers a better financial package than Russia does.

 

[Copernicus]

I think that the lesson for China here is what happens to markets when a regional power decides to start an irredentist war against a neighboring country in the modern era of globalized supply chains. China is a country that loves stability, and what is happening with Russia is not a good picture. So they will continue to be a menacing presence to their neighbors in Asia, but the Ukraine war is likely to make them rethink the usefulness of military saber rattling postures. Russia is becoming marginalized. They can use Russia in the same way that they use North Korea--as a cat's paw to keep the West off-balance and worried. As far as actually trying to use their military to take over Taiwan or any other territory, that is likely to fade as an option.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

BWAHAHAHAHA!!! Yeah, America will just stop buying stuff made in China.

And we'll have 100% safe and effective and efficient fusion in the coming weeks. Any economic impacts our trade policies with China would have would be several years down the road.

That’s not the argument. The US and other nations will sanction Chinese companies that do business with Russia in violation of the sanctions. And they will choose the US over Russia. Their own government will tell them to and that has happened before. China will sell Putin out.

Russia has nothing to swat back at us for economically scorching their nation. China, not the case. We do not have such leverage. They can swat right back at us.

 

[Copernicus]

BWAHAHAHAHA!!! Yeah, America will just stop buying stuff made in China.

And we'll have 100% safe and effective and efficient fusion in the coming weeks. Any economic impacts our trade policies with China would have would be several years down the road.

That’s not the argument. The US and other nations will sanction Chinese companies that do business with Russia in violation of the sanctions. And they will choose the US over Russia. Their own government will tell them to and that has happened before. China will sell Putin out.

Russia has nothing to swat back at us for economically scorching their nation. China, not the case. We do not have such leverage. They can swat right back at us.

China and the US both have a tremendous amount of leverage on each other. The US depends on Chinese exports for so many things, thanks to our policy of allowing the export of our manufacturing facilities to countries that are less concerned about environmental pollution than the US is. But their economy now produces a lot of consumer products for which the US is one of the biggest single markets, as SLD's graph showed. So I don't understand why you consider China beyond the reach of our influence. The Chinese economy is already under a lot of stress, and the Russian mess isn't really helping them in any significant way other than to increase their dominance over Russia, which has been a threat to them at many times in the past. This is an opportunity for China, but not one with unlimited benefits. They need Western markets even more than Russia does.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

BWAHAHAHAHA!!! Yeah, America will just stop buying stuff made in China.

And we'll have 100% safe and effective and efficient fusion in the coming weeks. Any economic impacts our trade policies with China would have would be several years down the road.

That’s not the argument. The US and other nations will sanction Chinese companies that do business with Russia in violation of the sanctions. And they will choose the US over Russia. Their own government will tell them to and that has happened before. China will sell Putin out.

Russia has nothing to swat back at us for economically scorching their nation. China, not the case. We do not have such leverage. They can swat right back at us.

China and the US both have a tremendous amount of leverage on each other. The US depends on Chinese exports for so many things, thanks to our policy of allowing the export of our manufacturing facilities to countries that are less concerned about environmental pollution than the US is. But their economy now produces a lot of consumer products for which the US is one of the biggest single markets, as SLD's graph showed. So I don't understand why you consider China beyond the reach of our influence.

Because our stuff is being made there. Pressure on China would take a lot more time to be felt. Most of the world has abandoned Russia economically. We've struck Russia economically with a speed and ferocity never seen before which is why Russia is very quickly feeling that impact.

The Chinese economy is already under a lot of stress, and the Russian mess isn't really helping them in any significant way other than to increase their dominance over Russia, which has been a threat to them at many times in the past. This is an opportunity for China, but not one with unlimited benefits. They need Western markets even more than Russia does.

But we have no immediate alternatives, so our markets are still going to be there for China.

 

[Harry Bosch]

BWAHAHAHAHA!!! Yeah, America will just stop buying stuff made in China.

And we'll have 100% safe and effective and efficient fusion in the coming weeks. Any economic impacts our trade policies with China would have would be several years down the road.

That’s not the argument. The US and other nations will sanction Chinese companies that do business with Russia in violation of the sanctions. And they will choose the US over Russia. Their own government will tell them to and that has happened before. China will sell Putin out.

Russia has nothing to swat back at us for economically scorching their nation. China, not the case. We do not have such leverage. They can swat right back at us.

China and the US both have a tremendous amount of leverage on each other. The US depends on Chinese exports for so many things, thanks to our policy of allowing the export of our manufacturing facilities to countries that are less concerned about environmental pollution than the US is. But their economy now produces a lot of consumer products for which the US is one of the biggest single markets, as SLD's graph showed. So I don't understand why you consider China beyond the reach of our influence. The Chinese economy is already under a lot of stress, and the Russian mess isn't really helping them in any significant way other than to increase their dominance over Russia, which has been a threat to them at many times in the past. This is an opportunity for China, but not one with unlimited benefits. They need Western markets even more than Russia does.

Yes, and unlike Putin, China will work in their own best interest, at least in the long run.

 

[SLD]

BWAHAHAHAHA!!! Yeah, America will just stop buying stuff made in China.

And we'll have 100% safe and effective and efficient fusion in the coming weeks. Any economic impacts our trade policies with China would have would be several years down the road.

That’s not the argument. The US and other nations will sanction Chinese companies that do business with Russia in violation of the sanctions. And they will choose the US over Russia. Their own government will tell them to and that has happened before. China will sell Putin out.

Russia has nothing to swat back at us for economically scorching their nation. China, not the case. We do not have such leverage. They can swat right back at us.

You're not reading the article. We already are sanctioning Chinese companies - sanctions apply not merely to nations, but to anyone who would violate those sanctions, regardless of where they are located. China is already advising companies to comply with the sanctions - for the most part. If a Chinese company has to choose between doing business with Russia or the United States, they will generally choose the US and the rest of the western democracies because that's in their own best interests to do so. And they are already doing that!! We are not sanctioning the Chinese government!! That indeed would be stupid and not work. But again sanctions against Russia apply to all companies, regardless of their nationality. That's how they work.