Covid-19 miscellany

[bilby]

Do you mean a second booster, a third, a fourth?

Do you think we can go on vaxxing the entire population every six months forever?

If it is being administered every six months or more regular, is it really a vaccine?

Yes, of course it is.

A vaccine is a treatment that primes the immune system to respond to a pathogen that it may encounter in the future, so that any such future encounter has a reduced probability of causing severe symptoms.

Nothing in that definition says anything whatsoever about how frequently a vaccine needs to be administered, or how long it might remain effective.

As you evidently don't know what a vaccine even is, you really don't have any chance of offering a useful opinion on the subject, and would be better reading the contributions of the competent, rather than attempting to contribute yourself. But I am sure that your demonstrated inability to say anything helpful won't stop you from doing whatever the fuck it is you are doing instead.

 

[lpetrich]

More Republicans have died of COVID-19. Does that mean the polls are off? - Roll Call

Doctors and demographers recently noticed another tragic example of how polarization shapes America: The pandemic has killed more people in the nation’s Republican enclaves than its Democratic strongholds. They explain the gap by pointing to Republican resistance to vaccines and the GOP’s more cavalier approach to combating the virus in general.

Those findings suggest many more Republicans — tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands — have died of COVID-19 than Democrats, leading some to wonder with some morbidity what the political impact will be. Will Democrats, facing the normal midterm election headwinds plus high inflation, do surprisingly well in 2022 for the simple, sad fact that there are fewer Republicans?

Or, to put it another way: Can we expect this partisan mortality shift to show up in the polling data?

Increasing Public Criticism, Confusion Over COVID-19 Response in U.S. | Pew Research Center - 33 percent of Republicans had not received a vaccine, compared to 10 percent of Democrats.

Two Years Into the Pandemic, Americans Inch Closer to a New Normal | Pew Research Center - a widening mask gap, with Republicans less likely than Democrats (39 percent vs. 79 percent) to say they wore masks inside stores most or all of the time.

The Growing Influence of State Governments on Population Health in the United States | Health Disparities | JAMA | JAMA Network

GOP-run states that lifted lockdowns sooner had higher excess death rates than blue states, an article in the Journal of the American Medical Association showed. Florida and Georgia had more than 200 deaths per 100,000, while New York had 112 per 100,000, New Jersey 73 per 100,000 and Massachusetts 50 per 100,000. “Between August and December 2021, Florida experienced more than triple the number of excess deaths (29, 252) as New York (8,786), despite both states having similar population counts (21.7 million and 19.3 million, respectively),” Steven H. Woolf wrote.

The Pew Research Center similarly found that more Americans died in counties that supported Trump than those that backed Biden. Comparing the 20 percent of Americans each living in counties that Trump or Biden took by the highest margins in 2020, Pew found the reddest places suffered nearly 70,000 more deaths from COVID-19 since the pandemic began. And overall, the COVID-19 death rate in all counties Trump won was 326 per 100,000, higher than 258 per 100,000 for Biden.

Seems like right-wingers are shooting themselves in the foot with their culture warring, even if it means killing enough of their number to throw tight elections away from their side.

 

[bilby]

More Republicans have died of COVID-19. Does that mean the polls are off? - Roll Call

Doctors and demographers recently noticed another tragic example of how polarization shapes America: The pandemic has killed more people in the nation’s Republican enclaves than its Democratic strongholds. They explain the gap by pointing to Republican resistance to vaccines and the GOP’s more cavalier approach to combating the virus in general.

Those findings suggest many more Republicans — tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands — have died of COVID-19 than Democrats, leading some to wonder with some morbidity what the political impact will be. Will Democrats, facing the normal midterm election headwinds plus high inflation, do surprisingly well in 2022 for the simple, sad fact that there are fewer Republicans?

Or, to put it another way: Can we expect this partisan mortality shift to show up in the polling data?

Increasing Public Criticism, Confusion Over COVID-19 Response in U.S. | Pew Research Center - 33 percent of Republicans had not received a vaccine, compared to 10 percent of Democrats.

Two Years Into the Pandemic, Americans Inch Closer to a New Normal | Pew Research Center - a widening mask gap, with Republicans less likely than Democrats (39 percent vs. 79 percent) to say they wore masks inside stores most or all of the time.

The Growing Influence of State Governments on Population Health in the United States | Health Disparities | JAMA | JAMA Network

GOP-run states that lifted lockdowns sooner had higher excess death rates than blue states, an article in the Journal of the American Medical Association showed. Florida and Georgia had more than 200 deaths per 100,000, while New York had 112 per 100,000, New Jersey 73 per 100,000 and Massachusetts 50 per 100,000. “Between August and December 2021, Florida experienced more than triple the number of excess deaths (29, 252) as New York (8,786), despite both states having similar population counts (21.7 million and 19.3 million, respectively),” Steven H. Woolf wrote.

The Pew Research Center similarly found that more Americans died in counties that supported Trump than those that backed Biden. Comparing the 20 percent of Americans each living in counties that Trump or Biden took by the highest margins in 2020, Pew found the reddest places suffered nearly 70,000 more deaths from COVID-19 since the pandemic began. And overall, the COVID-19 death rate in all counties Trump won was 326 per 100,000, higher than 258 per 100,000 for Biden.

Seems like right-wingers are shooting themselves in the foot with their culture warring, even if it means killing enough of their number to throw tight elections away from their side.

Are many elections won by 0.068% or less of the vote?

I would imagine that this is at least an order of magnitude too small an effect to be detectable, and likely is less than the typical error due to incorrect counting of votes.

The biggest effects will occur in the most polarised counties, which are also by definition the places with the fewest close races, so the electoral impact would presumably be tiny.

 

[steve_bank]

I just got a second booster during my yearly checkup.

Many people are still wearing masks even though the public mask mandate has gone.

 

[Artemus]

Are many elections won by 0.068% or less of the vote?

I would imagine that this is at least an order of magnitude too small an effect to be detectable, and likely is less than the typical error due to incorrect counting of votes.

The biggest effects will occur in the most polarised counties, which are also by definition the places with the fewest close races, so the electoral impact would presumably be tiny.

The margin for the  2000 United States presidential election in Florida that swung the overall election to Shrub was 0.009%. With our crazy system over here the effect will be small but I wouldn't be surprised if at least a few legislature seats swing over.

ETA: The same Wiki article says that New Mexico was won by 0.061% in the same election.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Are many elections won by 0.068% or less of the vote?

I would imagine that this is at least an order of magnitude too small an effect to be detectable, and likely is less than the typical error due to incorrect counting of votes.

The biggest effects will occur in the most polarised counties, which are also by definition the places with the fewest close races, so the electoral impact would presumably be tiny.

The margin for the  2000 United States presidential election in Florida that swung the overall election to Shrub was 0.009%. With our crazy system over here the effect will be small but I wouldn't be surprised if at least a few legislature seats swing over.

Florida was very rare. Even Georgia in 2020, which was extremely close, was won by tenths of a percent.

 

[TomC]

The margin for the

2000 United States presidential election in Florida that swung the overall election to Shrub was 0.009%. With our crazy system over here the effect will be small but I wouldn't be surprised if at least a few legislature seats swing over.

The election in Florida, in 2000, was determined by state sponsored election fraud.
One presidential candidate's brother was governor of Florida. Unsurprisingly, Jeb (the brother) did whatever he had to do to get W elected. Including break the law.

Once it became clear that Gore won the popular election, Jeb pulled out the stops finding a way to throw Florida EC votes to his brother.

In other countries, we use the word "oligarchy" to describe this unlawful behavior. Here in the USA, we call it Republicans.
Tom

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Do you mean a second booster, a third, a fourth?

Do you think we can go on vaxxing the entire population every six months forever?

If it is being administered every six months or more regular, is it really a vaccine?

Yes, of course it is.

A vaccine is a treatment that primes the immune system to respond to a pathogen that it may encounter in the future, so that any such future encounter has a reduced probability of causing severe symptoms.

Nothing in that definition says anything whatsoever about how frequently a vaccine needs to be administered, or how long it might remain effective.

Things seem to have changed a lot since it was last relevant but cholera used to be only good for 6 months.

 

[bilby]

Do you mean a second booster, a third, a fourth?

Do you think we can go on vaxxing the entire population every six months forever?

If it is being administered every six months or more regular, is it really a vaccine?

Yes, of course it is.

A vaccine is a treatment that primes the immune system to respond to a pathogen that it may encounter in the future, so that any such future encounter has a reduced probability of causing severe symptoms.

Nothing in that definition says anything whatsoever about how frequently a vaccine needs to be administered, or how long it might remain effective.

Things seem to have changed a lot since it was last relevant but cholera used to be only good for 6 months.

It's still relevant. According to the WHO, every year, there are 1.3 to 4.0 million cases of cholera.

 

[Artemus]

The margin for the

2000 United States presidential election in Florida that swung the overall election to Shrub was 0.009%. With our crazy system over here the effect will be small but I wouldn't be surprised if at least a few legislature seats swing over.

The election in Florida, in 2000, was determined by state sponsored election fraud.
One presidential candidate's brother was governor of Florida. Unsurprisingly, Jeb (the brother) did whatever he had to do to get W elected. Including break the law.

Once it became clear that Gore won the popular election, Jeb pulled out the stops finding a way to throw Florida EC votes to his brother.

In other countries, we use the word "oligarchy" to describe this unlawful behavior. Here in the USA, we call it Republicans.
Tom

No need to rehash that. The point is that two states in one election were within 0.068%. It's not as uncommon as one might think and the disparity in Covid deaths may affect some elections, especially if another wave increases the difference even more.

 

[Hermit]

The margin for the

2000 United States presidential election in Florida that swung the overall election to Shrub was 0.009%. With our crazy system over here the effect will be small but I wouldn't be surprised if at least a few legislature seats swing over.

The election in Florida, in 2000, was determined by state sponsored election fraud.
One presidential candidate's brother was governor of Florida. Unsurprisingly, Jeb (the brother) did whatever he had to do to get W elected. Including break the law.

Once it became clear that Gore won the popular election, Jeb pulled out the stops finding a way to throw Florida EC votes to his brother.

In other countries, we use the word "oligarchy" to describe this unlawful behavior. Here in the USA, we call it Republicans.
Tom

No need to rehash that. The point is that two states in one election were within 0.068%. It's not as uncommon as one might think and the disparity in Covid deaths may affect some elections, especially if another wave increases the difference even more.

Yes, but would the differential in Covid deaths be anywhere near that fraction in those evenly poised states to result in a Dem win?

 

[Metaphor]

Do you mean a second booster, a third, a fourth?

Do you think we can go on vaxxing the entire population every six months forever?

If it is being administered every six months or more regular, is it really a vaccine?

Yes, of course it is.

A vaccine is a treatment that primes the immune system to respond to a pathogen that it may encounter in the future, so that any such future encounter has a reduced probability of causing severe symptoms.

Nothing in that definition says anything whatsoever about how frequently a vaccine needs to be administered, or how long it might remain effective.

Things seem to have changed a lot since it was last relevant but cholera used to be only good for 6 months.

The population doesn't vaccinate for cholera every six months either.

If Pfizer or Moderna formulated a vaccine that lasted five years, I could almost envision a mass vaccination continuing indefinitely.

But the entire population every six months?

No, it isn't going to happen and it isn't happening in any country I know.

 

[repoman]

So it seems that Multiple Sclerosis is caused by the autoimmune side effects of an Epstein Barr virus infection. EBV is very widespread and very few people develop MS from it.

So, is there a risk of developing MS from a future EBV vaccine and could an effective vaccine be designed be that has zero chance of causing it?

 

[repoman]

extra effectiveness of the fourth dose disappears after ~4 weeks according to the new Israeli study. So a booster every 6 months is 6 times too few, lolololol.

Maybe it is time to just give it up.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

We likely need an updated vaccine. This bug has mutated several large steps up since the vaccine was developed. What'd be great is if the updated vaccine prevents infection again as the original appeared to do Covid-19 Classic and Alpha.

 

[TomC]

We likely need an updated vaccine. This bug has mutated several large steps up since the vaccine was developed. What'd be great is if the updated vaccine prevents infection again as the original appeared to do Covid-19 Classic and Alpha.

Here's what makes me so angry about this.
The many variants are primarily the result of unvaccinated people continuing to spread the C19 virus, giving it millions of opportunities to mutate.
If the vaccination program hadn't been turned into a political football we wouldn't have this kind of problem. If people had continued using low tech methods, like masking and distancing, while getting vaccinated as quickly as feasible, we could have licked the C19 disaster months ago!


But a bunch of asshats in politics and media found it personally advantageous to use it as a weapon. Use fake news as a way to benefit themselves. So they did.

And now we're all stuck with the fallout.
Tom

 

[Artemus]

extra effectiveness of the fourth dose disappears after ~4 weeks according to the new Israeli study. So a booster every 6 months is 6 times too few, lolololol.

Maybe it is time to just give it up.

Uhhh, no. From the study abstract

Rates of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe Covid-19 were lower after a fourth dose of BNT162b2 vaccine than after only three doses. Protection against confirmed infection appeared short-lived, whereas protection against severe illness did not wane during the study period.

It extends protection against severe illness, exactly as desired. This study confirms that, for those of us over 60 years of age, getting the fourth dose is a Good Idea(tm).

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Things seem to have changed a lot since it was last relevant but cholera used to be only good for 6 months.

It's still relevant. According to the WHO, every year, there are 1.3 to 4.0 million cases of cholera.

Bad wording on my part--last relevant to me. The last time I was in cholera territory was 1982. I went looking for the info on the vaccine and it's very different than back then.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

We likely need an updated vaccine. This bug has mutated several large steps up since the vaccine was developed. What'd be great is if the updated vaccine prevents infection again as the original appeared to do Covid-19 Classic and Alpha.

Here's what makes me so angry about this.
The many variants are primarily the result of unvaccinated people continuing to spread the C19 virus, giving it millions of opportunities to mutate.
If the vaccination program hadn't been turned into a political football we wouldn't have this kind of problem. If people had continued using low tech methods, like masking and distancing, while getting vaccinated as quickly as feasible, we could have licked the C19 disaster months ago!

Disagree--Omicron is suspected of having been living in a mouse.

Since it can infect a fair number of mammals it's almost certain we won't get rid of it and will continue to face variants.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

I just got a second booster during my yearly checkup.

Many people are still wearing masks even though the public mask mandate has gone.

You can tell who are the smart ones. The ones wearing their masks.