Look at the bright side folks. If the Russians nuke Anderson county to take out that big dam at Richland Chambers Lake to make a big flood, it will at least go south of me and I won't get flooded. Still have to worry about fallout coming south with the wind but at least i wont be flooded
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question about nuclear target map
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Politesse
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The Berkeley suburb? I'm pretty sure that would do some significant damage to Oakland anyway, they aren't far apart by miles.
TV and credit cards
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So 10-20% of the population will survive but for how long? What of that would make it through the next twelve months or what might the infant mortality rate be? Because I've got this mental imagine of a group of suburban teens, one holding up a cucumber and asking the others: "Can we eat this?" So after twelve months, 10-20% of that survives, which is going to be what? Preppers that come out of their holes to make America great again.
Elixir
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You gotta imagine it getting nuked while CPAC is convened there and Agent Orange is speaking …
Then it’s funny.
thebeave
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I'm pretty sure he meant Albany in New York. Oakland is doing fine destroying itself. No need to use expensive nuclear weapons just to save a few months time. I mean, a couple of Taco Bells in Oakland just closed their indoor dining facilities due to the crime situation. A sure sign the end is near...hurtinbuckaroo
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I worked on a project in the’90’s that analyzed the survivability of the telecom networks in a nuclear exchange. The whole thing was ridiculous, but the government agency we worked with had been tasked to do it, and they had the money. So we did it. The most difficult part was getting accurate info from the telecoms about their facilities and how they were connected. The NDAs we had to sign were considered just as important as the Top Secret clearance required to work with the targeting data.
Elixir
Made in America
Not the entire thing.
Probably the North Sentinelese would inherit the earth, as they probably think they already have.
They look fairly healthy and happy... as long as they're not too close when the shit hits the fan and they can endure the nuclear winters...
Elixir
Made in America
But you could kill two boogeymen with one stone, so to speak: drop it right on Telegraph avenue (it runs from UCB into Oakland) on the border between Oakland and Berkeley - take out the black vermin and the white liberal scum all at once, and voilá! RW utopia!
bilby
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10-20% of the world population. Mostly in places barely affected by the war. American suburbanites are fucked, largely because they are practically useless in every way*.
The survivors would mostly be people living in remote areas, who are used to living with little contact from the wider world. Sub-Saharan Africa would likely carry on much as it does today; There's not much in that part of the world worth targetting.
* and would be even more useless in a post apocalyptic environment
Disagree.
The issue isn't getting seriously irradiated by the bomb. Only pony bombs and neutron bombs (which are pretty much pony bombs) have any severe radiation threat--despite the infamous Davy Crockett. (Yeah, the lethal radiation range at full yield exceeded the flight range. Not an issue--the soldiers were expected to jump in foxholes after launching the weapon. Nobody calls fragmentation grenades bonkers because the danger range exceeds the range they typically can be thrown.)
The danger is the overall fallout. When the arsenals were at their peak most of the northern hemisphere was expected to see 20 sieverts of fallout. That's basically a 100% kill of anyone not behind shielding. And note that that also kills most animals we might eat.
Note, also, that real bombs are far more deadly than test bombs. Test bombs are dropped in places with little of value--not that much burns and it's not the sooty black smoke you get from burning a city. Enough of that sooty black some blown high enough (takes megaton-range warheads--Saddam's oil fires didn't cause more than a very local effect because it didn't go high and thus soon rained out) and you'll get it above the rain--it stays up a long time. Also, the standard Teller-Ulam design requires a heavy case--but it's only requirement be that the material have a lot of inertia. Tsar Bomba was dropped at 50Mt because the test had a lead case. Replace that lead with uranium (doesn't need enrichment) and it would be 100Mt and far dirtier. When weight is at a premium do you think the jackets will be lead or uranium?? They typically tested without uranium jackets.
Besides, the real killer is grid collapse.
Anything that gives a 90% kill gives far, far more than a 90% kill because those 10% can't keep things running.
Yeah, there might be viable populations in the southern hemisphere. It depends on how much air exchange there is and last I knew this was an unknown.
By a rational analysis Russia isn't going to use the bomb if they lose in Ukraine. Is Putin rational, though? An irrational actor might convince themselves that they can get away with the bomb in a local situation because the world isn't going to blow itself up over that.
I do agree a Russian win would be more dangerous.
The important question is how sane is the finger on the button?
I'm not worried about Xi because as much as he might bluster he's not actually going to use the bomb without a very good reason. Putin, though, especially if the reports that he's dying of cancer, is another matter.
bilby
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Don't care.