And students, lets turn to
Chapter 17 in our textbook, "SHOW ME THE MONEYYYYYYYY!!!!!"
The 2024 election is the most important election in our nation's history since the last one. The GOP did poorly-ish in the mid-terms. And despite a base that is solidly behind Trump and polls indicating Trump is doing well-ish, Trump has a problem.
article said:
Donald Trump’s reelection campaign has begun to see warning signs that the small-dollar donors who fueled his last run for the
White House have slowed
their support to the former president this year, according to people familiar with the matter.
...
Evidence from earlier in the 2024 election cycle already
hinted at an erosion of Trump’s small-dollar donor base, or support of $200 or less.
In 2023, Trump’s reelection campaign raised 62.5% less money from small-dollar donors than it did in 2019, the year before
the last presidential election.
News outlets are reporting that Biden is seeing a record gain in donations early on, which is in part because the re-election team has been working hard on this for months. You know, dedicated to the election, not court hearings for several indictments. So while the excitement for a Biden re-election is about as quelled as it could possibly be, while people aren't screaming like teenaged girls at a boyband concert, they seem to know that the alternative is not acceptable.
And Trump is now seeing the alternative. The billionaire "worth" "
$14 billion" has been hitting up his base for money for years now. And it appears that there is fatigue, especially in light of the fact that he can't get anyone to back his $500 million bond. Now $500 million is a lot, but isn't that what he says Mar a Lago is worth for realz?
To make matters worse, for both Trump and the RNC, Trump has taken control of the RNC, likely seeing it as a cash cow. But the fact remains, he already milked that cow dry. His stop the steal cash scheme got the RNC a lot of money and he had them pay his lawyers in return. The RNC doesn't have much left, $20 to $40 million, and the big check writers are acting very hesitantly.
article said:
Many wealthy Republican donors have yet to commit to giving millions of dollars toward a pro-Trump political action committee, or to using their extensive networks to raise money for the campaign, according to people familiar with the matter.
Beyond Trump-specific entities, some donors are also hesitant to fund the Republican National Committee, or a newly created joint fundraising committee that will raise money for the RNC, Trump’s campaign and dozens of state GOP parties, according to people briefed on the matter.
Now, there are still local PACs that they can donate to for down the list candidates, but the coordination (that totally doesn't exist), appears now to be non-existent. The wealthy only like the idea of Trump if that means they save tax money. They kind of already got theirs, why give it back now?
So this creates a bigger risk to the GOP. The GOP should be retaking the Senate and having a fighter's chance of holding the House. But as things stand, with limited cash available to down ticket candidates, and abortion likely being on the ballot in Florida and Arizona, the US Senate is actually still within reach for the Democrats and the House seems like a safe gamblers bet.
Which finally gets us to Trump's biggest problem. His polling numbers suck. Yes, Biden's numbers aren't great, but Trump still needs to win. Looking back at
2004 and
2012 we see unpopular Presidents who were being out-polled for a bit, but their numbers weren't that high. Trump is higher, but not 55%.
Nothing is certain and Trump defies almost all political norms, but these things could brew into a perfect political storm. Trump doesn't need money for his base but he needs it for the rest of the people. The Republicans that hate him, but like the judges. If he can't raise the money (and often at this point in a Trump venture he can't sell anymore junk bonds and the Russians have laundered what they will with him), he is setting up the entire GOP for a very hard November.
Of course, things can change and Winter is Coming in November could be a second Trump term, but it is a very tall hill to climb at this point. The Recession didn't happen, Biden knocked a homer with the SOTU address, and most of the GOP lies are becoming exposed.
