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Will Biden drop out? Who replaces him?

We're doomed. Whoever this idiot assaasin was, their actions will only embolden the Far Right and attract unearned sympathy for Trump's cult of personality. Just like with Reagan.

Bolsonaro had a similar assassination attempt against him, and I think it did much to win him a sympathy vote and his election victory. Trump's wannabe assassin was likely some deranged idiot who thought that assassinating Trump would somehow help progressive or leftist causes. I'm surprised that no such attempts had been made on Trump's life earlier, given the number of dangerous people in the US who have access to firearms. If Biden were to look like a possible victor in November, I would expect similar attacks on him. But, right now, Trump looks likely to win in November, and this assassination attempt will help his campaign greatly. It may have been inspired in part by Biden's recent failings, which made it increasingly likely that Trump would go on to victory in November. Now, it is even more likely. Trump will wear that injured ear like a trophy. No one knows better than him on how to capitalize on something like this.
 
We're doomed. Whoever this idiot assaasin was, their actions will only embolden the Far Right and attract unearned sympathy for Trump's cult of personality. Just like with Reagan.

Bolsonaro had a similar assassination attempt against him, and I think it did much to win him a sympathy vote and his election victory. Trump's wannabe assassin was likely some deranged idiot who thought that assassinating Trump would somehow help progressive or leftist causes. I'm surprised that no such attempts had been made on Trump's life earlier, given the number of dangerous people in the US who have access to firearms. If Biden were to look like a possible victor in November, I would expect similar attacks on him. But, right now, Trump looks likely to win in November, and this assassination attempt will help his campaign greatly. It may have been inspired in part by Biden's recent failings, which made it increasingly likely that Trump would go on to victory in November. Now, it is even more likely. Trump will wear that injured ear like a trophy. No one knows better than him on how to capitalize on something like this.
Yup. If Trump knows anything at all, it's where the nearest camera is and whether it's got his good side. The photo of him pumping his fist with defiance before leaving the stage, shaken but bravely defiant, will be in history books for decades. A true American hero. The right stuff. True grit.
 
I understand that this is an atheist sight but I cannot help but recall Mark 8 34-8 For what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul?
I think Matthew 5 29-30 is a better solution when it comes to dealing with MAGA. After today, escalation is inevitable anyways. Too many Q-tards will now find themselves divinely motivated to perform their 80s action movie fantasies.
 
The all knowing Bill Maher had predicted that Biden will drop out of the race on August 9th and his replacement will be one of the Dem governors of moderate or conservative states, like for example, Kentucky. He said, and sadly I agree, that for some reason. Harris isn't popular enough to win. So, we will see if the secular political prophet is right when August 9th comes.
 
The all knowing Bill Maher had predicted that Biden will drop out of the race on August 9th and his replacement will be one of the Dem governors of moderate or conservative states, like for example, Kentucky. He said, and sadly I agree, that for some reason. Harris isn't popular enough to win. So, we will see if the secular political prophet is right when August 9th comes.
I’m still good with someone else coming in. I refuse to believe there is no one who can fit the bill. Anyone with an active circulatory system.
 
You do know that it was SCOTUS that prevented Biden from forgiving most student loans, btw, Just sayin'.
As they should.
Why is that? Many of those loans were predatory loans of the same sort that are used to target poor people and minorities. The loans and interest have been paid back several times over for many, many of the borrowers who took on debt as 18 year olds, too young to consume alcohol or get a credit card in their own names.
 
I understand that this is an atheist sight but I cannot help but recall Mark 8 34-8 For what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul?
I think Matthew 5 29-30 is a better solution when it comes to dealing with MAGA. After today, escalation is inevitable anyways. Too many Q-tards will now find themselves divinely motivated to perform their 80s action movie fantasies.
As long as the eye is Trump, then I agree.

I also do not agree that escalation is inevitable.
 
With regards to who might replace Biden (although I think he won't be replaced), the list is very short. That's because the credible candidates who think they have a real shot in 2028 wouldn't want to step in right now. Newsom, Whitmer, etc, all know that replacing Biden now would doom their 2028 chances.

Plus is really can't be Newsom because Newsom and Harris are from the same state. In the case of Newsom, replacing Biden means also replacing Harris.

Unless Biden agrees, he won't be replaced.
 
Back to The 13 Keys to the White House | American University, Washington, D.C. - Allan Lichtman's theory that Presidential elections are referenda on the incumbent's party. Let's look at this election so far.
The problem with these analyses is that their sample size is inevitably small. There have only been 46 different presidents, and about 60 presidential elections, going back to the 18th century. Any election before maybe 1948 or so (and probably even later) has a country that is way too different for that data to be useful in drawing any conclusions about 2024.
It's 60 since the first one in 1788, and 42 since 1860, both counting this year's election.

A good halfway point in AL's sample is the New Deal era. One could split at 1936, the first Presidential election that was a referendum on FDR's New Deal, giving 1860 - 1932 and 1936 - present. So one could fit to the first half and check it on the second half, and vice versa.

This current kerfluffle in the Democratic Party threatens to falsify key 2, and if President Biden steps down, that will falsify key 3. Thus giving him a strong risk of defeat. So the Dems ought to settle their differences and accept the necessity of supporting him a few months more.
These keys do not consider the risk of incumbency, because we have never had an 81 year old incumbent. The fact that Biden is so old and so clearly shows his age diminishes the value of that key almost entirely I think.
 List of presidents of the United States by age - Joe Biden is the oldest, but not by much. He seems old because he sometimes seems very feeble. Donald Trump doesn't seem very feeble, or else he is better at hiding his feebleness. Ronald Reagan didn't seem very feeble either. As to hiding disabilities, FDR was very big on that, hiding his wheelchair and leg braces.

I concede that the keys model could use some improvement, like using continuous instead of binary scoring where feasible, like how well the President's party did in the previous midterm as compared to the midterm before that one.
 
Back to The 13 Keys to the White House | American University, Washington, D.C. - Allan Lichtman's theory that Presidential elections are referenda on the incumbent's party. Let's look at this election so far.
The problem with these analyses is that their sample size is inevitably small. There have only been 46 different presidents, and about 60 presidential elections, going back to the 18th century. Any election before maybe 1948 or so (and probably even later) has a country that is way too different for that data to be useful in drawing any conclusions about 2024.
It's 60 since the first one in 1788, and 42 since 1860, both counting this year's election.

A good halfway point in AL's sample is the New Deal era. One could split at 1936, the first Presidential election that was a referendum on FDR's New Deal, giving 1860 - 1932 and 1936 - present. So one could fit to the first half and check it on the second half, and vice versa.

This current kerfluffle in the Democratic Party threatens to falsify key 2, and if President Biden steps down, that will falsify key 3. Thus giving him a strong risk of defeat. So the Dems ought to settle their differences and accept the necessity of supporting him a few months more.
These keys do not consider the risk of incumbency, because we have never had an 81 year old incumbent. The fact that Biden is so old and so clearly shows his age diminishes the value of that key almost entirely I think.
 List of presidents of the United States by age - Joe Biden is the oldest, but not by much. He seems old because he sometimes seems very feeble. Donald Trump doesn't seem very feeble, or else he is better at hiding his feebleness. Ronald Reagan didn't seem very feeble either. As to hiding disabilities, FDR was very big on that, hiding his wheelchair and leg braces.

I concede that the keys model could use some improvement, like using continuous instead of binary scoring where feasible, like how well the President's party did in the previous midterm as compared to the midterm before that one.
I don’t think Biden seems at all feeble. I think people characterize him as feeble because the press has decided that’s a point to criticize him for.

Biden is physically and mentally active at levels I doubt anyone on this forum could match. I could not and he’s quite a bit older than I am.

Trump is somehow not deemed feeble although he can’t walk his own golf course, or speak coherently.
 
I don’t think Biden seems at all feeble. I think people characterize him as feeble because the press has decided that’s a point to criticize him for.
Behave. Up until the debate the press and Whitehouse gaslit anyone who pointed out Brandon’s decline. They can’t do it anymore because it’s so obvious. Not to you of course but everyone else.
Biden is physically and mentally active at levels I doubt anyone on this forum could match. I could not and he’s quite a bit older than I am.

:ROFLMAO:
 
I don’t think Biden seems at all feeble. I think people characterize him as feeble because the press has decided that’s a point to criticize him for.
Behave. Up until the debate the press and Whitehouse gaslit anyone who pointed out Brandon’s decline. They can’t do it anymore because it’s so obvious. Not to you of course but everyone else.
Biden is physically and mentally active at levels I doubt anyone on this forum could match. I could not and he’s quite a bit older than I am.

:ROFLMAO:
Case in point: you and I are both posting on the internet, instead of doing something useful. When is the last time you rode a bike? Or took a Pilates class? Or a spin class?

Or read a book.
 
...
We've spent enough time on this issue, and I don't think you've refuted my comments at all other than to just keep repeating your earlier position. So I'm moving on. I'm not spending any more time on the specific doctor, who has publicly admitted to examining Biden. My view is that the press secretary just made things worse by the way she handled the press, and that issue has now been superseded by tonight's press conference performance.
Apparently you do not comprehend how strict the medical privacy laws are.

I have had occasion to deal with the billing side of patient records--the laws weren't as strict back then but I still perfectly well know I can't talk about any names I might have seen.

I am as aware of HIPAA as you. As I explained to Zipr, the actual identity of the doctor was known, and the reason for the argument with reporters was that everyone knew she was stonewalling their questions with a pretense. They simply wanted to know whether Biden had been examined by a Parkinson's disease specialist, and more generally whether he was being treated for a neurological condition. It turns out that the doctor did examine him and claims to have found no evidence Parkinson's. Biden has made a point of being open and transparent about his health, so it was not out of line to ask these questions. I stand by my previous comments on this subject, which is not terribly newsworthy anymore.
You think you are aware. Without specific permission from Biden the only legal thing for the press secretary to do was neither confirm nor deny. It doesn't matter if the reporters know 90% of it. Or even if they're just asking if 100% is true.
 
The all knowing Bill Maher had predicted that Biden will drop out of the race on August 9th and his replacement will be one of the Dem governors of moderate or conservative states, like for example, Kentucky. He said, and sadly I agree, that for some reason. Harris isn't popular enough to win. So, we will see if the secular political prophet is right when August 9th comes.
Something fishy about that prediction. Maybe he was being facetious to see if anyone notices that Aug. 9 this year is the 50th anniversary of the Nixon resignation.
 
The all knowing Bill Maher had predicted that Biden will drop out of the race on August 9th and his replacement will be one of the Dem governors of moderate or conservative states, like for example, Kentucky. He said, and sadly I agree, that for some reason. Harris isn't popular enough to win. So, we will see if the secular political prophet is right when August 9th comes.

So all-knowing that he's a dumbass anti-vaxxer.
 
The all knowing Bill Maher had predicted that Biden will drop out of the race on August 9th and his replacement will be one of the Dem governors of moderate or conservative states, like for example, Kentucky. He said, and sadly I agree, that for some reason. Harris isn't popular enough to win. So, we will see if the secular political prophet is right when August 9th comes.
Something fishy about that prediction. Maybe he was being facetious to see if anyone notices that Aug. 9 this year is the 50th anniversary of the Nixon resignation.
Maybe he was being sarcastic or thought it would give him a lot of attention. I hope it was obvious that I was being sarcastic when I referred to him as the secular prophet. He does claim that he was the only one who predicted that Trump would win in 2016, but I honestly don't remember that. I still watch his show, by streaming it on Saturday afternoons, mostly for the guests, which sometimes have interesting points of view. But, I think the show has gone down hill in recent years. I liked it better when he had 5 guests each week.

But, thanks for telling us that date was when Nixon resigned. I was around back then, but I certainly don't remember the exact date. Perhaps that was why he chose that date, and he wasn't being the least bit serious.
 
The all knowing Bill Maher had predicted that Biden will drop out of the race on August 9th and his replacement will be one of the Dem governors of moderate or conservative states, like for example, Kentucky. He said, and sadly I agree, that for some reason. Harris isn't popular enough to win. So, we will see if the secular political prophet is right when August 9th comes.
Something fishy about that prediction. Maybe he was being facetious to see if anyone notices that Aug. 9 this year is the 50th anniversary of the Nixon resignation.
The problem with that scenario is that it requires Maher to be capable of subtlety and nuance.
 
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