Can America Avoid Another Civil War?

There’s little doubt that if Donald Trump thought starting a civil war to seize and hold power in America would work, he’d do it. As would the majority of his cult members.

But could they pull it off? Could America be on the edge of a possible second Civil War? And, if so, why and how did it get this far?

Most people would argue, “Aren’t civil wars usually started by the downtrodden? By the poor and disenfranchised? Rich and powerful people don’t start civil wars, do they?”

Amazingly, that widespread belief is almost 100 percent wrong. (Of course we believe this wrongly: rich and powerful people typically write history.)

It turns out that the vast majority of the hundreds of civil wars fought throughout history were started by those in power or wealthy elites very close to power. Facing economic, political, or demographic change, they’re the ones who see their wealth and power slipping away from them; that’s why they start civil wars, to hang onto that power and the wealth associated with it.

Serbs in power started the terrible civil war in the Balkans. Wealthy plantation owners in the American south started our Civil War. Wealthy Sunnis in majority Shiite Iraq started the Iraq Civil War. Other examples of recent civil wars started by in-power elites (I’ve done relief work in the midst of three, in Colombia, South Sudan, and Uganda) are listed at the end of this article.

And today a few dozen morbidly rich members of America’s elite, including the world’s richest man, using input occasionally provided by Vladimir Putin, could very well help start a 21st century American civil war.

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I don't think there will be a civil war. I see if Trump loses a lot of terrorism types of protest. But I found the origins of civil wars interesting. The elites start the civil wars, the poor die in them.

The Business Plot to overthrow FDR in 1933 and install a Fascist dictator.

There need be no civil war. A life option at hand is peaceful separation of red and blue states. Even Lincoln agreed peaceful separation could be done. He objected to secession. He characterized the relation between North and South as a contract, which could not lawfully be broken by one party, but could be nullified by both of them. The primary cause of the Civil War was slavery, but a secondary cause was the North’s refusal to let the south go peacefully, though there were some at the time who counseled that, including General Winfield Scott, who advised the Lincoln administration to tell the seceding states: “Wayward sisters, depart in peace.”

The difference between civil war and terrorism is just one of power.

A sufficiently powerful terrorist* organisation is one side in a civil war. A sufficiently weak side in a civil war must perforce engage in terrorism, as they cannot defeat their enemy in military engagements.

And, of course, terrorism** is a major part of any war.







* or "freedom fighter", if you support their objectives

** or "commando raids", "resistance fighting", "sabotage" and "fifth column activity", when they occur as part of a war

Yes, the thing that scares me is all the yokels who support Trump, if it goes to a civil war, will read about how the "patriots" in the revolutionary war did horrible things to families of soldiers on the other side while their husbands were away on military service.

In parts of the country the "patriots" coudn't defeat the British soldiers on the battlefield (lots of those British were loyal colonists actually) they would find out which family had a loyalist soldier in it and sneak over at their house at night and cut off their heads and put them in a bowl with a cruel joke "Dad lost his mind and backed the king and we lost our heads too" kinda crap.

Stuff like that may not go on for very long but it would be horrible when it does happen.

First of all, a dumpster-load of Trumpies eat the same fast food Trump eats. They won't constitute his infantry. Their asses won't fit in army khakis anyway. Trump could only form his army from existing militias -- say, Guardians of Liberty + Proud Boys + Boogaloo Boys + Constitutional Sheriffs + Oath Keepers + Three Percenters + Not Fucking Around Coalition (no, skip that last one, I just googled who's in it.) So there are six groups, and there are more (about 200 militias all together), but Trump would really have to pour on his orating to get them to cooperate (and make sure they could all borrow Grandma's jeep and Papaw's extra guns.)
But here would be a golden opportunity to clean up a whole bunch of MAGA debris in one short war. Gen. Milley & Gen. Kelly and the U.S. Army vs. Trump's MAGA Crusade.
Ground rules: All battles to be fought on actual Civil War battlefields. The bait, for Trump, would be a memorandum stating that, if his forces complied with that rule, no Trump properties would be involved in the conflict or claimed after the war in legal proceedings.
Cut to: Gettysburg, July 3, 2025, third day of battle. Trump is in his command tent, in a Jacuzzi.
Trump: J.D., soap my back...now do the loofah...yeah, that's it.
J.D.: Lindsey Graham wants to see you.
Trump: Can't stand that little wuss. Send him away.
Lindsey: (enters tent): Mr. President, the Federals are massing on the eastern salient.
Trump: What the fuck is a salient? Speak English.
Lindsey: On the end of the field, Mr. President. There's a lot of big guns, and it makes my skin crawl...
Trump: For fuck's sake, Lindsey, grow a pair. I'll show you a real man. Get Rudy in here.
Lindsey: Yes sir, Mr. President! I'll get him, Mr. President! (Exits.)
Trump: J.D., more loofah, and lower. No, lower than that...
Rudy (enters) Mr. President?
Trump: Jesus, did they shoot you?
Rudy: What? Oh no, that's the dye. It's really humid out there. Mr. President, did Lindsey tell you? The Federals have formed all their regiments on the field.
Trump: He said something about guns on a salamander. Something.
Rudy: What?
Trump: Listen. I want you to take our boys and get them to load their guns and I want you to march them across that field and fight the Federals like bloody hell.
Rudy: You want me to lead them?
Trump: Of course, you. I'm needed here. Nothing happens without me.
Rudy: Did you read the signs? This is where Pickett's Charge happened!!
Trump: So what? The only thing you must remember is, Never Fight Uphill. Well, this isn't uphill. This is flat. Get it?
Rudy: Well, they got shot to pieces with Pickett, that's what I get. . (Building a head of steam.) Mr. President, I gave up my apartment, my Mercedes, my collection of Rolex watches, my Joe DiMaggio shirt, my fucking Joe DiMaggio shirt! For you!! And now you want me to march those illiterate Bubbahs into the muzzles of anti-tank guns? Fuck off!!
Trump: All right, Rudy. Don't piss yourself. Send in Commander Greene. She'll do it. But remember, it'll be called Marjorie's Charge when it's all over.
(Large caliber shell detonates on command tent, followed by mortar rounds, leaving it to God to sort out. Surrender document signed by Melania three days later, at Four Seasons.)

Either way the election goes, I don't know that civil war is even possible. It will be more akin to The Troubles between Ireland and the Brits.

If Harris wins, there will be plenty of Trumpites who will terrorize local governments, people, and assassination attempts will skyrocket. This wouldn't be a brief dustup with armed thugs that quickly fades away. We're stuck with these assholes for decades.

If Trump wins, and assuming he does what he says he's going to do, then the right is going to find out that lots of liberals own guns. I wish more did because weakness, whether perceived correctly or not, emboldens authoritarians. However, liberals aren't organized into militias. They don't train and drill with the purpose of urban combat*. A lot of blood will be spilled, but it'll be more of a nuisance than than a realistic way of overthrowing anything more than a broken down fridge in a landfill. To sum it up, liberals are highly disorganized and lack the readiness that conservatives/fascists do.

*Yes, this really does happen. I used to be range safety officer at a gun range, and make no mistake about it, these people are ready to go to war against their fellow citizens. Note also that this was in a very blue county here in California.

Colonel Sanders said:

Either way the election goes, I don't know that civil war is even possible. It will be more akin to The Troubles between Ireland and the Brits.

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Leaders on both sides of the troubles mostly tried to avoid using the word "War", though the IRA did try for a short while in the '70s to re-frame the fighting as a war. Neither Dublin nor London wanted it to be viewed as one, but as a mate of mine who served in Belfast in the '70s remarked, when you are in a muddy graveyard with your SLR, huddling behind a tombstone, and listening to rifle bullets ricochet off the other side of it, it feels a lot like a war.

It's generally smarter (even if less accurate) to avoid the 'w' word, if only because it's easier to make a lasting peace if everyone agrees you were never really at war.

I was listening to Freakonomics radio today. They were talking to a constitutional scholar about a second tRump term.
He felt the biggest threat would be his incompetence and lack of understanding how things work. Not Project 2025.

pood said:

There need be no civil war. A life option at hand is peaceful separation of red and blue states. Even Lincoln agreed peaceful separation could be done. He objected to secession. ... General Winfield Scott [] advised the Lincoln administration to tell the seceding states: “Wayward sisters, depart in peace.”

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In 1860 the nation was clearly divided between slave states and free slaves. There is nothing like that today. Texas and Florida -- the two biggest eggs in Trump's electoral basket -- each have many millions of Democratic voters. And in California there are counties redder than most "red states". Trump got almost 61,000 votes in Lassen County 2020, more than twice what Biden got. My sister felt compelled to move away from the beautiful hills of Central California's "Gold country" -- she was surrounded by nasty Trumpists.

I think things might get very violent, but the schisms will not follow state lines. Neo-Nazis from southern Indiana will bus into Springfield to help beat up Haitians. Businesses owned by "foreigners" will have Molotov cocktails thrown at them by their own neighbors. And so on.

No matter how this plays out, the Republican Party as we once knew it is dead and buried.

Gospel said:

No matter how this plays out, the Republican Party as we once knew it is dead and buried.

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No doubt. When I try to explain to younger people that there used to be real conservative intellectuals, they refuse to believe it.

In every political system there needs to be a healthy conservative component to keep things like unintended consequences from occurring. Republicans are absolutely bereft of anything approaching intellectual advisors.

pood said:

There need be no civil war. A life option at hand is peaceful separation of red and blue states. Even Lincoln agreed peaceful separation could be done. He objected to secession. He characterized the relation between North and South as a contract, which could not lawfully be broken by one party, but could be nullified by both of them. The primary cause of the Civil War was slavery, but a secondary cause was the North’s refusal to let the south go peacefully, though there were some at the time who counseled that, including General Winfield Scott, who advised the Lincoln administration to tell the seceding states: “Wayward sisters, depart in peace.”

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Yeah, but if Democrats ever suggest separation they'd be against it, because that's their knee-jerk reaction to anything suggested by Democrats. If Republicans suggest it they'll make completely unreasonable demands of blue states, and peaceful separation would require a gentleman's agreement, which they've proven they're willing to break every time. I also definitely wouldn't want it to happen with the current Supreme Court.

To paraphrase Mencken, if Trump wins, his supporters will get it good and hard.

Wait 'til swizz gets pulled over and asked for his "papers". Wait until Trump fulfills his promise to "take the guns first."

Trump has no loyalty to anyone. Any right wingers that get on his wrong side will see him for what he truly is. Dictators don't need supporters. Just a tough ruthless armed force willing to do his violence for him. We will all, right and left alike, no longer be citizens with rights. We will be serfs subject to Trump's wims.

pood said:

There need be no civil war. A life option at hand is peaceful separation of red and blue states. Even Lincoln agreed peaceful separation could be done. He objected to secession. He characterized the relation between North and South as a contract, which could not lawfully be broken by one party, but could be nullified by both of them. The primary cause of the Civil War was slavery, but a secondary cause was the North’s refusal to let the south go peacefully, though there were some at the time who counseled that, including General Winfield Scott, who advised the Lincoln administration to tell the seceding states: “Wayward sisters, depart in peace.”

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Kansas.

The main problem with secession is the rural - urban nature of the political division. There are red pockets in blue states and blue pockets in red states. Secession will not solve that problem.

lostone said:

The main problem with secession is the rural - urban nature of the political division. There are red pockets in blue states and blue pockets in red states. Secession will not solve that problem.

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Exchange(s) of people maybe?

For example, blue Coloradans can go to California and red state citizens in California can go to Colorado, etc.

That's fantasy though. I'm not putting this forth as a serious idea. It would take peace and cooperation. Blue states wouldn't like it and red states would be willing to bomb and kill over it. Also, the theocrats behind Trump wouldn't be willing to lose so many "souls." They'll decapitate and hang as many as they could in order to "save" them.

Jesus help me and all from being saved . I can think of no worse fate. Hanging me would be cleaner and more humane.

Colonel Sanders said:

Exchange(s) of people maybe?

For example, blue Coloradans can go to California and red state citizens in California can go to Colorado, etc.

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It worked so well when India was partitioned.

Millions of people suddenly found themselves miles from their supposed new homeland.

The sudden separation also resulted in communal violence across the Indian sub-continent with massacres reported on both sides.

At least 14 million people were displaced and as many as one million were killed in the violence.

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https://www.redcross.org.uk/stories...-the-red-cross-response-to-the-refugee-crisis

bilby said:

Colonel Sanders said:

Exchange(s) of people maybe?

For example, blue Coloradans can go to California and red state citizens in California can go to Colorado, etc.

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It worked so well when India was partitioned.

Millions of people suddenly found themselves miles from their supposed new homeland.

The sudden separation also resulted in communal violence across the Indian sub-continent with massacres reported on both sides.

At least 14 million people were displaced and as many as one million were killed in the violence.

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https://www.redcross.org.uk/stories...-the-red-cross-response-to-the-refugee-crisis

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Good job they do not have the right of return.