Jimmy Higgins
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- Joined
- Jan 31, 2001
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Congratulations! You have survived another unbearable shitty 15 month long General Election slog that we can't apparently escape.. Technically, there are a couple days left, but give yourself a pat on the shoulder for surviving this completely arbitrarily insanely long process that seems to endanger our democracy more than actually progress it.
Due to the overbearing nature of everything that is politics in America, especially these days, it is easy for people to forget how this will go down on Tuesday. So I thought I'd present a short helpful guide.
What you'll need
A web browser with 12 open tabs to CNN, NY Times, and the state BoE of AZ, NC, FL, GA, PA, MI, WI, NH, ME, and IIDB.
Alcohol, a lot of it. Stocking up early is important. If you have a preference depending on your mood, I recommend having stashes for relieved jubilation and resigned depression. If you are a psychopath and you just like watching shit burn, I recommend both as well. If there is a clear winner early, you might get sad, unless Trump is the winner.
Chips, wings, mozzarella sticks, marinara sauce
Timelines of the Canaries
So for some reason, we have polls close at all times of the evening so, with each passing hour, there will be a release of new information. While we wish we could get this done by 7 PM, it isn't that simple. Fuck you the rest of the world saying you can just wait... fuck off. Try having a potential re-election of Trump hanging over your country. And yeah, we have nukes, so you have as much to lose too!
Is there a cheat code when polls close? Short answer is yes. They are called Exit Polls, which are generally very reliable. It is pretty simple. The difference for men weighted by the percent of their votes to women weighted by their percentage, and bam. You know pretty quickly is a state is a real Toss Up, close, or you can stick a fork in it. Usually a +3 is pretty safe.
6:00 to 7:00 PM
The first polls close in who the fuck cares states. These reliable red states haven't voted for a Democrat to be President since the 14th Century*.
* - Okay, Indiana voted for Obama in 2008, but who cares. They have voted for that bloated carcass twice and will likely do it one more time. If Kentucky exit polls imply Trump lost, break out the bourbon, put some steaks on the grill. It is time to party like it is 2008. But keep the steaks chilled, as that isn't particularly likely.
7:00 PM
Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida are done. Virginia should be blue. South Carolina red. Florida is expected to be reddish purple. Georgia is our first real reliable test. Granted, if Virginia is close, then getting the stone to sharpen the razors wouldn't be too premature. Florida could provide an idea on how much Dobbs is weighing on the election, both in the Referendum and Senate race with Rick "I defrauded Medicare" Scott. Additionally, Trump coat-tails or differentials. How are the Exit Polls for Trump verses Scott?
Georgia is on my list of barely red purple. If exit polls hopefully give us an idea as to which polls got it right.
7:30 PM
Yeah, why not close polls at an odd time. West Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina all close at this time. West Virginia is redder than Chairman Mao, and they'd represent Massachusetts in 1972 if there was a catastrophic blue wave. Ohio is reddish purple these days as the GOP has successfully gerrymandered the state into an Alabama-Lite reddish purple state. If Ohio Exit Polls were +10 Trump, then start getting those depressed drinks going. If you want Trump to win... well... there are rules on this forum I need to abide by. Otherwise, I don't think Ohio helps us. North Carolina will provide additional tea leaves. The polls up to now are +2, +3 to -2, -3. This could help provide us a view of which way the polls should have been interpreted. Obviously, if Harris looks good in the Exit Polls here, optimism will be justified. Of course, the state could have an asterisk of reduced Trump turnout due to the catastrophic hurricane making that DNC $125 billion weather laser worth every penny.
8:00 PM
This will be the huge one. Most of America closes here. Most of the states will be automatic winners for both candidates. The battleground states, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and kind of New Hampshire. Additionally, maybe some help with ME-2. At this point, the Exit Polls will provide us a clear or muddied understanding of what the polls were saying. We might be able to start pounding the alcohol in joy or catatonic depression.
8:30 PM
Who cares!
9:00 PM
At this point, we should be having a great idea of where things stand. Wisconsin and Arizona close. Iowa closes as well. Ann Selzer has been showing Iowa is a tight race and whether this is the last year she is a pollster will be determined at this point. One thing to note with Selzer's polls is the massive disparity between men and women. Again, we'll have a lot of data before Iowa to see if this is actually panning out in the voting booth.
11:00 PM
All that is left are the actual projections by the networks. There are a couple options here. News agencies are declaring winners or not. If they are, we'll know whether we'll be barfing into the toilet with joy or with an uncomfortably high amount of barbiturate.
Due to the overbearing nature of everything that is politics in America, especially these days, it is easy for people to forget how this will go down on Tuesday. So I thought I'd present a short helpful guide.
What you'll need
A web browser with 12 open tabs to CNN, NY Times, and the state BoE of AZ, NC, FL, GA, PA, MI, WI, NH, ME, and IIDB.
Alcohol, a lot of it. Stocking up early is important. If you have a preference depending on your mood, I recommend having stashes for relieved jubilation and resigned depression. If you are a psychopath and you just like watching shit burn, I recommend both as well. If there is a clear winner early, you might get sad, unless Trump is the winner.
Chips, wings, mozzarella sticks, marinara sauce
Timelines of the Canaries
So for some reason, we have polls close at all times of the evening so, with each passing hour, there will be a release of new information. While we wish we could get this done by 7 PM, it isn't that simple. Fuck you the rest of the world saying you can just wait... fuck off. Try having a potential re-election of Trump hanging over your country. And yeah, we have nukes, so you have as much to lose too!
Is there a cheat code when polls close? Short answer is yes. They are called Exit Polls, which are generally very reliable. It is pretty simple. The difference for men weighted by the percent of their votes to women weighted by their percentage, and bam. You know pretty quickly is a state is a real Toss Up, close, or you can stick a fork in it. Usually a +3 is pretty safe.
6:00 to 7:00 PM
The first polls close in who the fuck cares states. These reliable red states haven't voted for a Democrat to be President since the 14th Century*.
* - Okay, Indiana voted for Obama in 2008, but who cares. They have voted for that bloated carcass twice and will likely do it one more time. If Kentucky exit polls imply Trump lost, break out the bourbon, put some steaks on the grill. It is time to party like it is 2008. But keep the steaks chilled, as that isn't particularly likely.
7:00 PM
Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida are done. Virginia should be blue. South Carolina red. Florida is expected to be reddish purple. Georgia is our first real reliable test. Granted, if Virginia is close, then getting the stone to sharpen the razors wouldn't be too premature. Florida could provide an idea on how much Dobbs is weighing on the election, both in the Referendum and Senate race with Rick "I defrauded Medicare" Scott. Additionally, Trump coat-tails or differentials. How are the Exit Polls for Trump verses Scott?
Georgia is on my list of barely red purple. If exit polls hopefully give us an idea as to which polls got it right.
7:30 PM
Yeah, why not close polls at an odd time. West Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina all close at this time. West Virginia is redder than Chairman Mao, and they'd represent Massachusetts in 1972 if there was a catastrophic blue wave. Ohio is reddish purple these days as the GOP has successfully gerrymandered the state into an Alabama-Lite reddish purple state. If Ohio Exit Polls were +10 Trump, then start getting those depressed drinks going. If you want Trump to win... well... there are rules on this forum I need to abide by. Otherwise, I don't think Ohio helps us. North Carolina will provide additional tea leaves. The polls up to now are +2, +3 to -2, -3. This could help provide us a view of which way the polls should have been interpreted. Obviously, if Harris looks good in the Exit Polls here, optimism will be justified. Of course, the state could have an asterisk of reduced Trump turnout due to the catastrophic hurricane making that DNC $125 billion weather laser worth every penny.
8:00 PM
This will be the huge one. Most of America closes here. Most of the states will be automatic winners for both candidates. The battleground states, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and kind of New Hampshire. Additionally, maybe some help with ME-2. At this point, the Exit Polls will provide us a clear or muddied understanding of what the polls were saying. We might be able to start pounding the alcohol in joy or catatonic depression.
8:30 PM
Who cares!
9:00 PM
At this point, we should be having a great idea of where things stand. Wisconsin and Arizona close. Iowa closes as well. Ann Selzer has been showing Iowa is a tight race and whether this is the last year she is a pollster will be determined at this point. One thing to note with Selzer's polls is the massive disparity between men and women. Again, we'll have a lot of data before Iowa to see if this is actually panning out in the voting booth.
11:00 PM
All that is left are the actual projections by the networks. There are a couple options here. News agencies are declaring winners or not. If they are, we'll know whether we'll be barfing into the toilet with joy or with an uncomfortably high amount of barbiturate.
