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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

barbos said:
Ukrainian culture is basically a series of lame attempts to gain independence from Russia by plotting against Russia with other European powers (Swedes, poles and now whole EU)
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There is the Russian justification for war.

Russia signed an agreement that gave Ukraine independence in exchange for nuclear weapons and got a lease for a naval base in Crimea. The Soviet navy in the Black Sea was split between Russia and Ukraine.

The annexation of Crimea was about securing the naval base.

Russia is no longer leasing its naval base in Crimea. In 2014, Russia occupied and then annexed the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine, unilaterally terminating the lease agreement
.
Key details on the history of the lease and annexation:

The initial lease: After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia and Ukraine signed a 1997 treaty allowing Russia to lease the Crimean naval facilities for its Black Sea Fleet.
The 2010 extension: This agreement was extended in the 2010 "Kharkiv Pact," which allowed Russia to continue basing its fleet in Crimea until 2042 in exchange for discounted natural gas for Ukraine.
Russia's termination: After its 2014 military takeover and annexation, Russia formally renounced the lease agreement, claiming the base was now on its own territory.
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Russia can never be trusted.

Reports indicate that while the direct transfer of U.S. Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine is unlikely, the U.S. will deploy these conventional land-attack cruise missiles in Germany starting in 2026
. There are also ongoing discussions about a potential arrangement for European allies to purchase long-range weapons, though Tomahawks specifically are not expected to be part of that deal.
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From reporting last night there are some signs of Russian economic problems. For one long lines at gas stallions.
Despite official assertions of stability, the Russian economy is slowing, grappling with structural imbalances and mounting pressure from military spending, international sanctions, and attacks on its energy infrastructure
.Key Russian officials and analysts have warned of impending stagnation, a debt crisis, and high inflation.
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Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil refineries are significantly affecting Russian gasoline supplies, causing widespread shortages, price increases, and rationing in many regions of the country
. Since August 2025, Ukraine has intensified its drone campaign, hitting over half of Russia's major refineries.
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In the news France seized a Russian tanker, possibly connected to the drones.

www.bbc.com

France: Captain of tanker linked to Russian 'shadow fleet' charged

The Chinese national faces a count of refusing to follow naval instructions while piloting the vessel.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com

The Boracay left Russia last month and was off the coast of Denmark when unidentified drones forced the temporary closure of several airports last week.

The tanker was earlier boarded by French soldiers because it was on a list of vessels subject to EU sanctions for carrying Russian oil exports. Russian President Vladimir Putin called France's actions "piracy".

The Kremlin had previously denied any knowledge of the vessel.

Under international maritime law, naval forces can stop a merchant vessel at sea if they have reasonable suspicion that the vessel is without a nationality.
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steve_bank said:
Russia signed an agreement that gave Ukraine independence in exchange for nuclear weapons and got a lease for a naval base in Crimea. The Soviet navy in the Black Sea was split between Russia and Ukraine
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Ukraine got their independence before any such "agreement" And Base in Sevastopol has nothing to do with that agreement.
US were largely responsible for nuke agreement becasue you were afraid of "ukrainians" with nukes.
In reality it was all about money. Ukrainians were trying to sell Russia their (russian) own stuff.
They were successful with the Sevastopol base but could not do that with nukes and Tu-160 planes.


Ukrainian "culture" have no concept of statehood or fairness. It's basically village level culture.
Imagine when a village gets to be a state, that's Ukraine. That's not to say there were no great ukrainians in russian government. It's just Ukrainianism is based on village scum. I know, I served with them in the army.
 
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barbos said:
steve_bank said:
Russia signed an agreement that gave Ukraine independence in exchange for nuclear weapons and got a lease for a naval base in Crimea. The Soviet navy in the Black Sea was split between Russia and Ukraine
Click to expand...

Ukraine got their independence before any such "agreement" And Base in Sevastopol has nothing to do with that agreement.
US were largely responsible for nuke agreement becasue you were afraid of "ukrainians" with nukes.
In reality it was all about money. Ukrainians were trying to sell Russia their (russian) own stuff.
They were successful with the Sevastopol base but could not do that with nukes and Tu-160 planes.


Ukrainian "culture" have no concept of statehood or fairness. It's basically village level culture.
Imagine when a village gets to be a state, that's Ukraine. That's not to say there were no great ukrainians in russian government. It's just Ukrainianism is based on village scum. I know, I served with them in the army.
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смердеть , somebody please open a window and let in some fresh air.
 
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Going by the little reporting that is getting out of Russia it sounds like cracks are starting to form.

Like Hitler and Tojo in WWII in the long run Russia can not compete with the industrial capacity of its opponents.

Russia's economy has gone over to war production. Historically that can lead to a crash when the war is over, and inflation. Unemployment goes up as war production goes down.

Manufacturing war materials means less production of goods for internal consumption and foreign sales. Governed revenue goes down.

Meanwhile USA, China and Europe are working out trade agreements. American, Chinese, and European economies will go on with growth and stability over time.

Russia will probably stagnate. A consequence of its anti west ideology. Treating the west as an enemy instead of a partner. Irrational in today;s global economy.
 
steve_bank said:
Like Hitler and Tojo in WWII in the long run Russia can not compete with the industrial capacity of its opponents.
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According to your own data, Russia makes 4 times more ammunition than EU/US combined.
steve_bank said:
Russia's economy has gone over to war production.
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That's patently false.
steve_bank said:
Meanwhile USA, China and Europe are working out trade agreements. American, Chinese, and European economies will go on with growth and stability over time.
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LOL, what are you smoking?
steve_bank said:
Russia will probably stagnate. A consequence of its anti west ideology.
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No, we won't and we don't have anti-west ideology. It's yoou who has anti-russia ideology.
 
Your rantings on the thread over and over

Euro Nazis are out to get Russia.
NATO started the war, Russia did not invade.
NATO troops are in Ukraine.
Ukraine are Nazis..


Etc, etc, etc....

The war goes on and Russians are paying a p[rice.
 
steve_bank said:
Your rantings on the thread over and over

Euro Nazis are out to get Russia.
NATO started the war, Russia did not invade.
NATO troops are in Ukraine.
Ukraine are Nazis..


Etc, etc, etc....

The war goes on and Russians are paying a p[rice.
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As opposed to your rantings?
 
barbos said:
steve_bank said:
Your rantings on the thread over and over

Euro Nazis are out to get Russia.
NATO started the war, Russia did not invade.
NATO troops are in Ukraine.
Ukraine are Nazis..


Etc, etc, etc....

The war goes on and Russians are paying a p[rice.
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As opposed to your rantings?
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Weak response. Not rantings, Russia started the war. Ukraine was never a threat to Russia.

Russia continually attacks civilians. Eradicate Ukrainians.

Ukraine is not as easy to push around as Georgia was.

Putin made a great blunder invading Ukraine and in the long run may lead to a serious decline in Russia. Effects will last long after Putin is dead and buried.

Ideology, militarism, and authoritarian rule rule ed to the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russia may repeat.
 
The thing is if Ukraine was not invaded NATO would have become more complacent and nobody would care what Putin and Russia did.

Over here right now it is the Wold Series, speculation on the Superbowl and the NBA starting up.

Nobody gives a shit about Russia and its problems. Least of all me.
 
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