How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[steve_bank]

Ukrainian culture is basically a series of lame attempts to gain independence from Russia by plotting against Russia with other European powers (Swedes, poles and now whole EU)

There is the Russian justification for war.

Russia signed an agreement that gave Ukraine independence in exchange for nuclear weapons and got a lease for a naval base in Crimea. The Soviet navy in the Black Sea was split between Russia and Ukraine.

The annexation of Crimea was about securing the naval base.

Russia is no longer leasing its naval base in Crimea. In 2014, Russia occupied and then annexed the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine, unilaterally terminating the lease agreement
.
Key details on the history of the lease and annexation:

The initial lease: After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia and Ukraine signed a 1997 treaty allowing Russia to lease the Crimean naval facilities for its Black Sea Fleet.
The 2010 extension: This agreement was extended in the 2010 "Kharkiv Pact," which allowed Russia to continue basing its fleet in Crimea until 2042 in exchange for discounted natural gas for Ukraine.
Russia's termination: After its 2014 military takeover and annexation, Russia formally renounced the lease agreement, claiming the base was now on its own territory.

Russia can never be trusted.

Reports indicate that while the direct transfer of U.S. Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine is unlikely, the U.S. will deploy these conventional land-attack cruise missiles in Germany starting in 2026
. There are also ongoing discussions about a potential arrangement for European allies to purchase long-range weapons, though Tomahawks specifically are not expected to be part of that deal.

From reporting last night there are some signs of Russian economic problems. For one long lines at gas stallions.

Despite official assertions of stability, the Russian economy is slowing, grappling with structural imbalances and mounting pressure from military spending, international sanctions, and attacks on its energy infrastructure
.Key Russian officials and analysts have warned of impending stagnation, a debt crisis, and high inflation.

Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil refineries are significantly affecting Russian gasoline supplies, causing widespread shortages, price increases, and rationing in many regions of the country
. Since August 2025, Ukraine has intensified its drone campaign, hitting over half of Russia's major refineries.

In the news France seized a Russian tanker, possibly connected to the drones.

France: Captain of tanker linked to Russian 'shadow fleet' charged

The Chinese national faces a count of refusing to follow naval instructions while piloting the vessel.

www.bbc.com

The Boracay left Russia last month and was off the coast of Denmark when unidentified drones forced the temporary closure of several airports last week.

The tanker was earlier boarded by French soldiers because it was on a list of vessels subject to EU sanctions for carrying Russian oil exports. Russian President Vladimir Putin called France's actions "piracy".

The Kremlin had previously denied any knowledge of the vessel.

Under international maritime law, naval forces can stop a merchant vessel at sea if they have reasonable suspicion that the vessel is without a nationality.