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2026 Mid-Term Elections

 
 
 
Checked out the Suffolk Poll. It has the Democrat Turek up by 4 points (48 to 44). The polled group voted 49.8 to 43.4 for Trump in 2024. Trump won by 13.2 pt, so that could provide caution for taking the Turek lead too seriously. But still, a group that voted 6.4% plus for Trump is just over 4% against the GOP.

Digging deeper. The YouGov poll in Kansas is showing 11% of Trump voters in Kansas voting for the Democrat. More importantly, of that 11%, 4 in 5 say their vote for the Democrat is certain. Again, of the group polled, it was 54 to 39 percent for Trump. Trump won Kansas by 16 pts, which makes one think, Jebus! Kansas is turning very very very bluish purplish dark red?
SLD said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
link

article said:
Since Labor Day, when President Donald Trump opened up his war chest for the midterms, Republicans have pumped half a billion dollars into competitive House and Senate races.

A month later, the polls haven’t moved in their direction.

High-quality public surveys show Democratic Senate candidates tied or leading in Alaska, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas — the same as before Labor Day. Democrats’ lead on the generic congressional ballot has slightly widened since, from about six points to roughly nine, according to analyst Nate Silver’s polling average.
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It is very simple, gasoline and diesel prices are killing the GOP. The effort in Iran started a clock and that clock expired in August, when gas prices were going to become an issue. And in the several month long period of 'anytime now' turning into 'after the election', Trump has tied an anchor to the GOP. Sadly, other than GA and NC, the polls are generally close in battleground (NH, ME, OH, MI) and not so battleground states (AK, TX, KS, NE). But while close, the polling has trended blue since late August and the expensive gas/diesel. The polls could be off and the Democrats manage only to to get to 49-51 or 50-50, which would still be good against an election map this hard.

Gasoline prices are the GOP's egg prices / inflation for Harris... just with the minor difference that Trump is directly responsible for the gasoline prices where as egg prices were a disease/supply issue and inflation was from the Pandemic recovery. If the latest YouGov polls are accurate, the Democrats could finish with 52 seats proper, excluding the independents! This could give the voting caucus 55+ seats. That is absurd! But when you have the Vice President stumping in Kansas... that is what we call a "red flag" for the GOP, that they themselves are scared out of their minds.
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If democrats are counting on gas prices, they’ll be sorely disappointed. Gas prices have come down and will continue to come down through the election. The spike was over 6 months ago.
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The spike was in August. And while some relief is coming to prices, it is still well over elevated. That Kansas and Nebraska are remotely close indicates the price of diesel is very much on the minds of those in the agricultural industries. Diesel is near 2x what it was last year at this point. Gasoline is still well over $4 a gallon nationally on average. And gas prices are very much in excess of pre-Iran War prices. While numbers can trend down from here, Trump's problem is the same as HW Bush's in '92 and Harris in '24, the mindset of the voter is already made.
SLD said:
Absent some further issue, I don’t see the Dems doing as well as they think they are. They might still take back the house. But it will be damn close.
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There are a couple things to your comment. I agree that there is doubt. Polling is too tight and we've seen tight Texas, Iowa, Ohio polls in the past that end up being decently red on election day. But, Vance was campaigning in Kansas. There is reason to think the polls are wrong... and it'll be a massive blue tsunami that send 300 Dems to the House. This November is about turnout and just how many conservatives are going to the mat for the shit sandwich Trump served up in the first two years of his second term. Polling in suburbs have to have the GOP on edge.

The second thing... data centers. This second term of Trump has been shit. But if the GOP loses big here, it'll be about gas/diesel prices and DATA CENTERS *ominous echo*. Not Iran, crypto, the shady crap, the abuse of the DoJ. It is about a major weekly expense to commuting American workers, a major expense for agricultural companies, and Data Centers (because that is how stupid and fickle the average voter is). Data centers came at the GOP by surprise and they are generally unpopular.
 
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Yeah, Data Centers could be a big issue.

Interestingly enough, I was reading that they could soon be dinosaurs anyways. Silicon photonics could replace the need for them and their large power and cooling needs.
 
SLD said:
Yeah, Data Centers could be a big issue.

Interestingly enough, I was reading that they could soon be dinosaurs anyways. Silicon photonics could replace the need for them and their large power and cooling needs.
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Metal-cooled fast reactors could obviate the power “problem” overnight, but the whole kerfuffle serves the nefarious purposes of the billionaires pushing for trillionaire status.
 
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Elixir said:
SLD said:
Yeah, Data Centers could be a big issue.

Interestingly enough, I was reading that they could soon be dinosaurs anyways. Silicon photonics could replace the need for them and their large power and cooling needs.
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Metal-cooled fast reactors could obviate the power “problem” overnight, but the whole kerfuffle serves the nefarious purposes of the billionaires pushing for trillionaire status.
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Yeah, that's the real problem with the Dems. I don't see anyone making "fuck the billionaires" their campaign slogan. They're still pushing tired old identity politics. I really would love to see an old fashioned democrat who made the centerpiece of his campaign that he was going to tax them out of existence. Bernie is the last one who has. He would have smoked Trump in 2016. And while I like AOC, I just don't see her as the inspiring type that Bernie is. We need another Bernie.
 
SLD said:
Elixir said:
SLD said:
Yeah, Data Centers could be a big issue.

Interestingly enough, I was reading that they could soon be dinosaurs anyways. Silicon photonics could replace the need for them and their large power and cooling needs.
Click to expand...
Metal-cooled fast reactors could obviate the power “problem” overnight, but the whole kerfuffle serves the nefarious purposes of the billionaires pushing for trillionaire status.
Click to expand...
Yeah, that's the real problem with the Dems. I don't see anyone making "fuck the billionaires" their campaign slogan. They're still pushing tired old identity politics. I really would love to see an old fashioned democrat who made the centerpiece of his campaign that he was going to tax them out of existence. Bernie is the last one who has. He would have smoked Trump in 2016. And while I like AOC, I just don't see her as the inspiring type that Bernie is. We need another Bernie.
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Indeed. Nobody seems to want to incur the wrath of a multi-billion dollar smear campaign, though I can’t imagine why not.
In the current climate, I don’t think that’s even a risk. If you become a pebble in the shoe of the billionaire “community”, they no longer need an expensive smear campaign to shut you up. They can just … shut you up. However necessary, and with impunity.
 
I also need to add that the biggest factor in mid-terms is economic performance. This has been borne out by many studies. If the economy is performing poorly, the president's party takes the blame. The economy is actually not performing poorly. It's humming along, actually quite nicely despite all the shocks Trump keeps giving it. Americans have gained about 6 Trillion in net worth under Trump. A lot of that is tied up in pension funds and other things. A significant lot though does go to the 1% though. Regardless, it creates the illusion of economic success. Granted the debt is up, etc. But that's not what people feel. They've become adapted to higher gas prices.

For a real democratic blue wave, we need to see blatant economic collapse. My fear is that won't happen until after democrats get elected, by which time it will be too late to stop it.
 
SLD said:
Elixir said:
SLD said:
Yeah, Data Centers could be a big issue.

Interestingly enough, I was reading that they could soon be dinosaurs anyways. Silicon photonics could replace the need for them and their large power and cooling needs.
Click to expand...
Metal-cooled fast reactors could obviate the power “problem” overnight, but the whole kerfuffle serves the nefarious purposes of the billionaires pushing for trillionaire status.
Click to expand...
Yeah, that's the real problem with the Dems. I don't see anyone making "fuck the billionaires" their campaign slogan. They're still pushing tired old identity politics.
Click to expand...
Are they? The only identity politics I've seen are the AI generated transgenders and AOC from the GOP ads.

As a person living in a state where I've been watching commercials for this senate seat since *checks notes*... sometime after the Earth cooled but before the dinosaurs, the ads against Husted have been about Data Centers... did you know he's been called the face of data centers..., the FirstEnergy scandal in Ohio -> high electric rates. The ads for Brown are generally saying he'll fight for Ohioans. Sykes' ads have been saying things are expensive, I'm trying to get that under control. Nothing about identity politics. Nothing really about the crap that has been this Trump Administration.
SLD said:
I really would love to see an old fashioned democrat who made the centerpiece of his campaign that he was going to tax them out of existence. Bernie is the last one who has. He would have smoked Trump in 2016.
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No, he would have gotten fucking clobbered and people would be saying "Clinton would have won". The ads with him in USSR, it'd been brutal.
SLD said:
And while I like AOC, I just don't see her as the inspiring type that Bernie is. We need another Bernie.
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We need left-wingers to keep things honest in the House and Senate. But these left-wingers need to be in the appropriate areas where they can win. Bernie hasn't done shit. His only contribution was to get the left-wing back into the conversation in 2016. That wasn't a small thing, but his accomplishments in Congress are near non-existent.

What the Democrats need are some Blue Dogs back, and if the polling continues trending, they'll be back. We need the senate, we need the senate bad!
 
I hope it is a no shot, though Becerra's refusal to effectively campaign is imperiling the entire state. I still can't believe he's the best candidate we could come up with. Millions of petro dollars kicked his way, and he can't produce so much as a catchy slogan? Give me a break.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
SLD said:
Elixir said:
SLD said:
Yeah, Data Centers could be a big issue.

Interestingly enough, I was reading that they could soon be dinosaurs anyways. Silicon photonics could replace the need for them and their large power and cooling needs.
Click to expand...
Metal-cooled fast reactors could obviate the power “problem” overnight, but the whole kerfuffle serves the nefarious purposes of the billionaires pushing for trillionaire status.
Click to expand...
Yeah, that's the real problem with the Dems. I don't see anyone making "fuck the billionaires" their campaign slogan. They're still pushing tired old identity politics.
Click to expand...
Are they? The only identity politics I've seen are the AI generated transgenders and AOC from the GOP ads.

As a person living in a state where I've been watching commercials for this senate seat since *checks notes*... sometime after the Earth cooled but before the dinosaurs, the ads against Husted have been about Data Centers... did you know he's been called the face of data centers..., the FirstEnergy scandal in Ohio -> high electric rates. The ads for Brown are generally saying he'll fight for Ohioans. Sykes' ads have been saying things are expensive, I'm trying to get that under control. Nothing about identity politics. Nothing really about the crap that has been this Trump Administration.
SLD said:
I really would love to see an old fashioned democrat who made the centerpiece of his campaign that he was going to tax them out of existence. Bernie is the last one who has. He would have smoked Trump in 2016.
Click to expand...
No, he would have gotten fucking clobbered and people would be saying "Clinton would have won". The ads with him in USSR, it'd been brutal.
SLD said:
And while I like AOC, I just don't see her as the inspiring type that Bernie is. We need another Bernie.
Click to expand...
We need left-wingers to keep things honest in the House and Senate. But these left-wingers need to be in the appropriate areas where they can win. Bernie hasn't done shit. His only contribution was to get the left-wing back into the conversation in 2016. That wasn't a small thing, but his accomplishments in Congress are near non-existent.

What the Democrats need are some Blue Dogs back, and if the polling continues trending, they'll be back. We need the senate, we need the senate bad!
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No. You win elections by motivating the base and the democratic base needs to be workers. Here’s an interesting example of someone who would have voted for Bernie instead of Trump. And I have heard hundreds of such statements:

IMG_0583.jpeg

The democrats need to regain their worker roots.
 
I'm currently down to 47-47. TX, MI, MN, ME, OH, KS are the unknowns now.

Minus a red wave, NC, GA are locks it seems. AK keeps being blue. NH seems to have stabilized. MN is being an absolute dick of a state and refuses to converge on safe blue, so I put that in a toss up. IA polling is positive but diving deep enough in the numbers implies it is still red. However, KS is showing signs of life. Nebraska is trending purple (independent), but I can't in any rational way say both Kansas and Nebraska are going away from red.

Of the states listed above, generally blue polling. MSNBC did a piece on poll reliability and they showed that generally mid-terms have polled much better than General Elections with Trump on the ballot. Glass ceiling of delirium appears to be 55 if all purple went blue in caucus, this would include Montana and Nebraska.
 
Derec said:
ZiprHead said:
www.theguardian.com

Republicans criticize Steve Hilton for ‘creepy’ innuendo-filled campaign ad

Hilton faces heavy backlash from within his own party for ‘Just Try It’ ad amid his longshot bid for California governor
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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What easily offended snowflakes!
Hilton's campaign is a long shot, and something like that is perhaps needed to shake up the race.
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Something doesn't have to "offensive" to be below a level of decorum that is expected.
 
At this point NOTHING could change my vote.

They could put Rump against a wall and shoot him. (please do). It's too late. The GOP is still to blame for enabling Rump in the first place.
 
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Bernie Sanders Shocks Even 'Moderate' Democrats With New Poll On What Americans Want| Midterms (Project America News on YouTube, Oct 3, 2026 – 5:25 min.)
Bernie Sanders pushes back against the idea that progressive policies are outside the American mainstream, pointing to polling figures he says show broad support for several core proposals. In the speech, Sanders cites support for Medicare for All, a $20 federal minimum wage, a billionaire wealth tax, a pause on AI development, a moratorium on data-center construction and raising the Social Security payroll tax cap. He also discusses foreign policy, housing, child care and U.S. military aid to Israel. Sanders argues that Americans are frustrated with status quo politics and calls on progressives to organize, win elections and challenge policies he describes as harmful to working people.
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0:56–> 59% of the American people support Medicare for all.
1:30–> 57% of Americans support a $20 an hour minimum wage.
2:05–> 61% of Americans support a billionaire wealth tax.
2:34–> 63% of Americans want a pause on AI development.
2:53–> 62% ... support a moratorium on data center construction.
3:32–> 66% of the American people want to make the very wealthy pay their fair share into Social Security.
3:43–> 58% of Americans want to end US military aid to Israel.

4:05–> So what does all of this mean?
What all of this means is that the American people are angry. They are tired of status quo politics and status quo policies. They want real change. They want the United States Congress to have the guts to stand up to big money interests and pass legislation that will improve their lives and their kids' lives.

So when anyone tells you that the progressive agenda is way out there, it's fringy, communistic or whatever it may be, you go back and you say:
"Yeah, on almost every major issue that we as progressives are fighting for, that's exactly where the American people are."
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