16 Nobel Prize Winning Economists Warn Trump Will Ruin Economy

[Jimmy Higgins]

OMFG! If anyone heard an explosion, it was the buried bodies of Eugene Debs and Samuel Gompers exploding in their graves. Williams Jennings Bryan's body also burst, but it was a whimper in the wind.

Do you know nothing about economics and labor of the late 19th and early 20th centuries? America grew mighty from the blood, bones, and skin of the American laborers. I mean Jebus! You want to go back to no union, blacklisting? Why not no social security, no Medicare while we're at it?!

Actually no SS and no Medicare as well as no Medicaid ( this one is silently understood) is on the list. Also civil rights, environmental protections, women’s rights, worker safety

Basically no government protections at all.

As far as I know. There are no politicians out there proposing no SS and no Medicare with the possible exception of Rand Paul. I've not heard anything like that coming from Trump.

Sen. Rick Scott suggested it.

 

[ZiprHead]

And I repeat the question because I really want to know, What exactly is Trump's plan and vision?

For the economy, tariffs in place of income tax.

LD posted this in another threat on Trump's insanity.: "In 2022, the federal income raised about $2.6 trillion while import tariffs raised about $0.1 trillion. So the proposal is effectively bullshit."

Would you like to do the math on that, RV?

 

[Patooka]

And I repeat the question because I really want to know, What exactly is Trump's plan and vision?

For the economy, tariffs in place of income tax.

I checked the time stamps before asking this - remember how only a few hours ago you were complaining about how expensive everything is post pandemic? What the fuck do you think is going to happen with prices if Trump gets his way with tarrifs?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

And I repeat the question because I really want to know, What exactly is Trump's plan and vision?

For the economy, tariffs in place of income tax.

LD posted this in another threat on Trump's insanity.: "In 2022, the federal income raised about $2.6 trillion while import tariffs raised about $0.1 trillion. So the proposal is effectively bullshit."

Would you like to do the math on that, RV?

I mean, you can do it, but it isn't as simple as TARIFF THIS!! The idea that no one will respond to said tariffs is also an issue. This tariff idea is kind of like how I play chess, one move at a time, with no bloody clue what I'm doing after the opponent makes their move.

 

[RVonse]

I attempted to read your article but failed to read anything specific as to why Trumps plans would be so much worse than Bidens. It just looks like pure political bull shit with ads popping up everywhere. The only thing your article said remotely tangible was that most people believe we are in a recession right now.....but that we really aren't. The definition of a recession used to be pretty obvious and agreed by everyone, yet since we live in the no truth virtual world now (especially government reporting and fed manipulations)you can not know whether we are in a recession or not. The only thing I know for certain about he economy is what I can observe first hand. My 401k account is doing great right now, as would be expected during while a president reality show is underway. When I eat out I notice super high prices and hardly any people at the restaurants, especially the fast food joints likes Hardy's and Windy's. My employer is slowly but surely shutting down our operations and threatening everyone with lay off during August asking us use up any unused vacation during that time. Profit sharing has been dismal for the past year or so, but before that during Trumps term we got bonus checks almost equal to our base earnings. During the pandemic we were viewed as an essential industry (steel making) and actually ran much better during pandemic than we do now.

I'm seeing a lot of me, me, me in that post. The article was pretty clear and straightforward. Frankly, my bet is you didn't even read the article because there were no pop up ads, no ads at all. And I turned off my ad blocker to be sure.

If you were able to read the article perhaps you could share why the economists don't like Trumps vision.

 

[Patooka]

I attempted to read your article but failed to read anything specific as to why Trumps plans would be so much worse than Bidens. It just looks like pure political bull shit with ads popping up everywhere. The only thing your article said remotely tangible was that most people believe we are in a recession right now.....but that we really aren't. The definition of a recession used to be pretty obvious and agreed by everyone, yet since we live in the no truth virtual world now (especially government reporting and fed manipulations)you can not know whether we are in a recession or not. The only thing I know for certain about he economy is what I can observe first hand. My 401k account is doing great right now, as would be expected during while a president reality show is underway. When I eat out I notice super high prices and hardly any people at the restaurants, especially the fast food joints likes Hardy's and Windy's. My employer is slowly but surely shutting down our operations and threatening everyone with lay off during August asking us use up any unused vacation during that time. Profit sharing has been dismal for the past year or so, but before that during Trumps term we got bonus checks almost equal to our base earnings. During the pandemic we were viewed as an essential industry (steel making) and actually ran much better during pandemic than we do now.

I'm seeing a lot of me, me, me in that post. The article was pretty clear and straightforward. Frankly, my bet is you didn't even read the article because there were no pop up ads, no ads at all. And I turned off my ad blocker to be sure.

If you were able to read the article perhaps you could share why the economists don't like Trumps vision.

You have zero right to ask that from anybody else, Mr "Here's a 90 minute video from some fringe lunatic that I want everyone to watch whilst providing zero context whatsoever".

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Sixteen Nobel Economists Sign Letter About Risks to the U.S. Economy of a Second Trump Presidency

We the undersigned are deeply concerned about the risks of a second Trump administration for the U.S. economy. Among the most important determinants of economic success are the rule of law and economic and political certainty. For a country like the U.S., which is embedded in deep relationships with other countries, conforming to international norms and having normal and stable relationships with other countries is also an imperative. Donald Trump and the vagaries of his actions and policies threaten this stability and the U.S.’s standing in the world. While each of us has different views on the particulars of various economic policies, we all agree that Joe Biden’s economic agenda is vastly superior to Donald Trump’s. In his first four years as President, Joe Biden signed into law major investments in the U.S. economy, including in infrastructure, domestic manufacturing, and climate. Together, these investments are likely to increase productivity and economic growth while lowering long-term inflationary pressures and facilitating the clean energy transition. During Joe Biden’s presidency we have also seen a remarkably strong and equitable labor market recovery—enabled by his pandemic stimulus. An additional four years of Joe Biden’s presidency would allow him to continue supporting an inclusive U.S. economic recovery. Many Americans are concerned about inflation, which has come down remarkably fast. There is rightly a worry that Donald Trump will reignite this inflation, with his fiscally irresponsible budgets. Nonpartisan researchers, including at Evercore, Allianz, Oxford Economics, and the Peterson Institute, predict that if Donald Trump successfully enacts his agenda, it will increase inflation. The outcome of this election will have economic repercussions for years, and possibly decades, to come. We believe that a second Trump term would have a negative impact on the U.S.’s economic standing in the world and a destabilizing effect on the U.S.’s domestic economy.

Signed, George A. Akerlof (2001) Sir Angus Deaton (2015) Claudia Goldin (2023) Sir Oliver Hart (2016) Eric S. Maskin (2007) Daniel L. McFadden (2000) Paul R. Milgrom (2020) Roger B. Myerson (2007) Edmund S. Phelps (2006) Paul M. Romer (2018) Alvin E. Roth (2012) William F. Sharpe (1990) Robert J. Shiller (2013) Christopher A. Sims (2011) Joseph E. Stiglitz (2001) Robert B. Wilson (2020)

link

They'd probably do some math, but you wouldn't read that, like you apparently haven't read about American History.

 

[ZiprHead]

I attempted to read your article but failed to read anything specific as to why Trumps plans would be so much worse than Bidens. It just looks like pure political bull shit with ads popping up everywhere. The only thing your article said remotely tangible was that most people believe we are in a recession right now.....but that we really aren't. The definition of a recession used to be pretty obvious and agreed by everyone, yet since we live in the no truth virtual world now (especially government reporting and fed manipulations)you can not know whether we are in a recession or not. The only thing I know for certain about he economy is what I can observe first hand. My 401k account is doing great right now, as would be expected during while a president reality show is underway. When I eat out I notice super high prices and hardly any people at the restaurants, especially the fast food joints likes Hardy's and Windy's. My employer is slowly but surely shutting down our operations and threatening everyone with lay off during August asking us use up any unused vacation during that time. Profit sharing has been dismal for the past year or so, but before that during Trumps term we got bonus checks almost equal to our base earnings. During the pandemic we were viewed as an essential industry (steel making) and actually ran much better during pandemic than we do now.

I'm seeing a lot of me, me, me in that post. The article was pretty clear and straightforward. Frankly, my bet is you didn't even read the article because there were no pop up ads, no ads at all. And I turned off my ad blocker to be sure.

If you were able to read the article perhaps you could share why the economists don't like Trumps vision.

Already done several times in this thread.

 

[ZiprHead]

I don't think that has ever happened before.

 

[Patooka]

I attempted to read your article but failed to read anything specific as to why Trumps plans would be so much worse than Bidens. It just looks like pure political bull shit with ads popping up everywhere. The only thing your article said remotely tangible was that most people believe we are in a recession right now.....but that we really aren't. The definition of a recession used to be pretty obvious and agreed by everyone, yet since we live in the no truth virtual world now (especially government reporting and fed manipulations)you can not know whether we are in a recession or not. The only thing I know for certain about he economy is what I can observe first hand. My 401k account is doing great right now, as would be expected during while a president reality show is underway. When I eat out I notice super high prices and hardly any people at the restaurants, especially the fast food joints likes Hardy's and Windy's. My employer is slowly but surely shutting down our operations and threatening everyone with lay off during August asking us use up any unused vacation during that time. Profit sharing has been dismal for the past year or so, but before that during Trumps term we got bonus checks almost equal to our base earnings. During the pandemic we were viewed as an essential industry (steel making) and actually ran much better during pandemic than we do now.

I'm seeing a lot of me, me, me in that post. The article was pretty clear and straightforward. Frankly, my bet is you didn't even read the article because there were no pop up ads, no ads at all. And I turned off my ad blocker to be sure.

If you were able to read the article perhaps you could share why the economists don't like Trumps vision.

Already done several times in this thread.

Yeah, but those posts are filled with pop up ads too

 

[laughing dog]

When 16 Nobel Prize winning economists warn the U.S. about Trump's economic incompetence, people should take this seriously.

......

Sixteen Nobel prize-winning economists are jumping into the presidential campaign with a stark warning: Former President Trump's plans would reignite inflation and cause lasting harm to the global economy if he wins in November.
Why it matters: The Nobel laureates are lending their academic prestige to a political argument the Biden administration has been making for weeks: Inflation would be worse under Trump.

"While each of us has different views on the particulars of various economic policies, we all agree that Joe Biden's economic agenda is vastly superior to Donald Trump," the 16 economists write in a letter, first obtained by Axios.
.....

https://www.axios.com/2024/06/25/nobel-prize-winners-biden-economy-trump-inflation

I attempted to read your article but failed to read anything specific as to why Trumps plans would be so much worse than Bidens. It just looks like pure political bull shit with ads popping up everywhere. The only thing your article said remotely tangible was that most people believe we are in a recession right now.....but that we really aren't. The definition of a recession used to be pretty obvious and agreed by everyone, yet since we live in the no truth virtual world now (especially government reporting and fed manipulations)you can not know whether we are in a recession or not. The only thing I know for certain about he economy is what I can observe first hand. My 401k account is doing great right now, as would be expected during while a president reality show is underway. When I eat out I notice super high prices and hardly any people at the restaurants, especially the fast food joints likes Hardy's and Windy's. My employer is slowly but surely shutting down our operations and threatening everyone with lay off during August asking us use up any unused vacation during that time. Profit sharing has been dismal for the past year or so, but before that during Trumps term we got bonus checks almost equal to our base earnings. During the pandemic we were viewed as an essential industry (steel making) and actually ran much better during pandemic than we do now.

Although your article was worthless, I have otherwise read specific differences between Trumps proposed economy and Biden proposed economy. Trump wants to eliminate income tax and replace that money lost with tariffs. According to Arthur Laffer: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_Laffer Trump was the best president for the US economy ever during his career. Prevailing economic theory is that whatever gets taxed always causes less of that and that does sound reasonable to me. That should imply no income tax will cause individual productivity to thrive and people wanting to work. OTOH the tariffs will cause cheap China goods not to bought. So less Chinese crap and then less garbage that immediately breaks thrown into landfills. Logically Trumps plan will produce more productivity in the US and less cheap crap coming from China but would his plan actually do this? I don't know, and I doubt we will ever find out. Because it will never be possible to eliminate the fed income tax at this point since there are too many vested lawyers and accountants who will lose their jobs without it.

In the final analysis I expect no difference to our economy who gets elected. Even though Trump has the best plan and vision, this means nothing since none of it will ever be accomplished. And we know this because he demonstrated 4 years of bragging but never doing anything he promised. Trump will again surround himself with the usual back stabbers and establishment (included the Democratic party)
who will ensure nothing good ever gets done.

Ok, you cited Laffer which means that what you wrote has no basis in reality.

Trump’s proposals would harm ordinary citizens who would have to pay higher prices while benefiting the uber-wealthy who currently pay more in taxes and who can afford higher prices whatever their effective tax rate is.

Trumps proposal would simply take us back in time to what the US had from 1860 to 1913. No income tax but tariffs. A thriving industrial economy during times of lower prices for the middle class and creative inventions like the electric light bulb and airplane.

WTF? From 1860 to 1865, the US Civil war raged. Most of the US was agrarian. We were on a bimetallic standard and the world was on the gold standard.

There were a minimum of 12 recessions over that time span, including one that lasted from 1873 - 1879 (which makes it a depression).

The idea productivity would necessarily increase if income taxes were zero has no basis in economic theory. Eliminating income taxes would mist likely increase the federal deficit because it is highly unlikely that import tariff increases could generate sufficient revenue .

That ignores the likely effects on inflation.

 

[Elixir]

if we produced all of our goods and imported nothing then the government would have no revenue at all.

And US manufacturing would grind to a halt. Just today I heard a guy from a company that makes heavy equipment and uses a lot of carbide steel to do so, saying their end product would be non-competitive under Trump’s scenario, and named some big names that would also be in trouble.

@RVonse credits Trump for his employer’s prosperity under Trump, not realizing that Trump inherited a record string of positive growth quarters from his predecessor, and ran it into the ground so hard that we are still recovering. Now Republitards want him to do it again.

 

[Elixir]

And I repeat the question because I really want to know, What exactly is Trump's plan and vision?

For the economy, tariffs in place of income tax.

I checked the time stamps before asking this - remember how only a few hours ago you were complaining about how expensive everything is post pandemic? What the fuck do you think is going to happen with prices if Trump gets his way with tarrifs?

Yabut the blame will go to the Democrat that gets elected in ‘28, just like they’re blaming Biden for Trump’s mess, how they blamed Obama for Bush’s mess in 2009 …
It’s a cycle that the Repugs have lived off since the 1960s.

 

[Spacetime Inhabitant]

And I repeat the question because I really want to know, What exactly is Trump's plan and vision?

For the economy, tariffs in place of income tax.

Tariffs are a form of protectionism, the opposite of free trade. The latter is an idea supported by economists, and until recently both sides of politics. So, Trump and you are opposing traditional Republican policy.

 

[ZiprHead]

if we produced all of our goods and imported nothing then the government would have no revenue at all.

And US manufacturing would grind to a halt. Just today I heard a guy from a company that makes heavy equipment and uses a lot of carbide steel to do so, saying their end product would be non-competitive under Trump’s scenario, and named some big names that would also be in trouble.

@RVonse credits Trump for his employer’s prosperity under Trump, not realizing that Trump inherited a record string of positive growth quarters from his predecessor, and ran it into the ground so hard that we are still recovering. Now Republitards want him to do it again.

This.

And what about the products the raw minerals we need to produce some of our technology that can only come from other countries. Those countries would surely retaliate in kind.

 

[barbos]

First off, HW Bush didn't fuck up the economy, that was Reagan.

Well, true. But they all contributed. Otherwise we can go George Washington.

 

[marc]

Question for you, RVonse. Do you really enjoy being humiliated every time Trump suggests something totally stupid and you take the word of radio and TV sycophants and liars then repeat it here?

Reminds me of that time Rush admitted that some of the stuff coming out of the republican congress made him cringe, and how he had to defend stuff that the republicans were not even bothering to defend themselves.

Spoiler: Rush Quote

 

[Elixir]

@RVonse are you going to fall for it again?



It amazes that year after year, decade after decade, Republitards never learn.

 

[southernhybrid]

I hope Rvonse will read the article I'm going to gift, as it goes into a lot of detail as to why Trump's idiotic tariff plan could easily lead us into a recession. I didn't read the entire thread, but I hope someone mentioned that Trump added far more to the deficit compared to Biden. Plus, Trump isn't going to be able to end income taxes. That's an idiotic promise that he hopes will food his cult base. There's a lot more in the article, than I'm quoting, some of which was likely in the other article as well. Of course, the cult members don't get their news from real sources, so it's unlikely they will believe the truth.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/27/...e_code=1.200.Tf9y.pje_96nq3ZBL&smid=url-share

In March 2018, a day after announcing sweeping tariffs on metals imported from America’s allies and adversaries alike, President Donald J. Trump took to social media to share one of his central economic philosophies: “Trade wars are good, and easy to win.”
As president, Mr. Trump presided over the biggest increase in U.S. tariffs since the Great Depression, hitting China, Canada, the European Union, Mexico, India and other governments with stiff levies. They hit back, imposing tariffs on American soybeans, whiskey, orange juice and motorcycles. U.S. agricultural exports plummeted, prompting Mr. Trump to send $23 billion to farmers to help offset losses.
Now, as he runs for president again, Mr. Trump is promising to ratchet up his trade war to a much greater degree. He has proposed “universal baseline tariffs on most foreign products,” including higher levies on certain countries that devalue their currency. In interviews, he has floated plans for a 10 percent tariffon most imports and a tariff of 60 percent or more on Chinese goods. He has also posited cutting the federal income tax and relying on tariffs for revenue instead.
Mr. Trump, who once proclaimed himself “Tariff Man,” has long argued that tariffs would boost American factories, end the gap between what America imported and what it exported and increase American jobs.



His first round of levies hit more than $400 billion worth of imports, including steel, solar panels, washing machines and Chinese goods like smart watches, chemicals, bicycle helmets and motors. His rationale was that import taxes would revive American manufacturing, reduce reliance on foreign goods and allow U.S. companies to better compete against cheap products from China and other countries.
Economists say the tariffs did reduce imports and encouraged U.S. factory production for certain industries, including steel, semiconductors and computer equipment. But that came at a very high cost, one that most likely offset any overall gains. Studies show that the tariffs resulted in higher prices for American consumers and factories that depend on foreign inputs, and reduced U.S. exports for certain goods that were subject to retaliation.
Mr. Trump is now envisioning taxing perhaps 10 times as many imports as he did during his first term, an approach that economists say could trigger a trade war that drives up already high prices and plunges the U.S. into a recession.
David Autor, an economics professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said the proposals would have “a very large effect on prices almost immediately.”
“I don’t think they’ll do it,” Mr. Autor said. “It could easily cause a recession.”
In a recent letter, 16 Nobel Prize-winning economists wrote that they were “deeply concerned” about the risks a second Trump administration posed to the economy, inflation and the rule of law.

​

​

 

[Shadowy Man]

@RVonse are you going to fall for it again?

View attachment 46591

It amazes that year after year, decade after decade, Republitards never learn.

And what if it takes 4-8 years for a President’s economic policies to really take effect? Hmm? Ever consider that?