2020 Election Results

[Jimmy Higgins]

Gohmert suit may force Pence's hand in effort to overturn Trump's defeat

Gohmert and a handful of the would-be electors sued Pence in federal court on Monday in a long-shot bid to throw out the rules that govern Congress' counting of electoral votes next week. It’s an effort they hope will permit Pence — who is tasked with leading the Jan. 6 session of the House and Senate — to simply ignore President-elect Joe Biden's electors and count Trump's losing slates instead.

Though the lawsuit itself is unlikely to gain legal traction, it does put Pence in the position of having to either contest the suit — putting him on the opposite side of Trump and his GOP defenders — or support it and lay bare the intention to subvert the will over the voters in the 2020 election.

Pence has engaged with GOP lawmakers seeking to reverse the election results but has avoided publicly taking a side in the matter, and he has given no indication how he intends to handle his role presiding over the Jan. 6 session of Congress set to certify Biden's victory.

If Pence travels abroad and does not preside over the session, he is replaced by Chuck Grassley. I get the feeling that if the judge doesn't just sit on the case until after Jan 6, Pence won't be there to preside.

Right now, all of the elector slates fall under Safe Harbor. I believe the last time there wasn't safe harbor was Florida (2000) and Hawaii (1960). In both cases, the losing candidate oversaw the Electoral College (Gore who could have won if he swapped Florida and Nixon where Hawaii didn't matter).

So the Distinguished Asshole from Texas is saying Safe Harbor is unconstitutional. It seems funny that the GOP is arguing that a law requiring certified electoral slates must be counted as certified goes against the Constitution. But the GOP is clearly void of any legitimacy these days. They are literally trying to use technicalities to overthrow a fair election. Hasn't worked up to now and honestly, anyone involved with these cases should be impeached from office, for incompetence.

 

[crazyfingers]

Gohmert suit may force Pence's hand in effort to overturn Trump's defeat





If Pence travels abroad and does not preside over the session, he is replaced by Chuck Grassley. I get the feeling that if the judge doesn't just sit on the case until after Jan 6, Pence won't be there to preside.

Right now, all of the elector slates fall under Safe Harbor. I believe the last time there wasn't safe harbor was Florida (2000) and Hawaii (1960). In both cases, the losing candidate oversaw the Electoral College (Gore who could have won if he swapped Florida and Nixon where Hawaii didn't matter).

So the Distinguished Asshole from Texas is saying Safe Harbor is unconstitutional. It seems funny that the GOP is arguing that a law requiring certified electoral slates must be counted as certified goes against the Constitution. But the GOP is clearly void of any legitimacy these days. They are literally trying to use technicalities to overthrow a fair election. Hasn't worked up to now and honestly, anyone involved with these cases should be impeached from office, for incompetence treason.

FIFU

 

[Swammerdami]

But, but but, JH isn't a trumper *wink wink*.

JH isn't a Trumper... he is a Devil's Advocate that long forgot what his point was.

You of all people should be careful with the "JH" abbreviation, Mr. Higgins!

Mr. Harvestdancer's posts do not appear for me but "Devil's Advocate who long forgot what his point was" is probably a good description for many of the more intelligent semi-Trumpists. (I'll define "semi-Trumpist" as someone who votes Trump — or spoils his ballot for Gary Johnson — while pretending to detest the Orange Brat.)

Their brains are aware of Trump' criminality, stupidity and sociopathy, but they lack the self-awareness to grasp the absurdity of their attempts at tu quoque:

"Trump brags about grabbing pussy." ⟹ "Biden hugged a young girl. Same same." They wallow in their ignorance so don't click Politifact to learn that FoxNews is misleading with a photo of Biden playing Santa Claus for his grand-daughter.

"Trump babbles like a child with severe attention deficit." ⟹ "Biden stutters. Same same."

"Trump tells several significant lies every day." ⟹ "Biden likes to quote other leaders and in a hurried stump speech sometimes forgets the attribution. Same same."

In extreme cases this ilk succumbs to self-ridicule. I see from the quoted excerpts that Mr. Harvestdancer claims to think it is Biden and the Democrats, not Trump, who are authoritarian. This opinion is so laughably counterfactual that Mr. Harvestdancer could be on the road to recovery — if he could just bear to read his own posts with an open mind!

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

Mr. Harvestdancer's posts do not appear for me but "Devil's Advocate who long forgot what his point was" is probably a good description for many of the more intelligent semi-Trumpists. (I'll define "semi-Trumpist" as someone who votes Trump — or spoils his ballot for Gary Johnson — while pretending to detest the Orange Brat.)

We've got another one - someone who thinks my vote for Gary Johnson in CALIFORNIA is the reason Hillary lost PENNSYLVANIA. That's how important California is.

Yet by recognizing that I voted for Johnson, you admitted I didn't vote for Trump. By recognizing that I supported Johnson you admitted I didn't support Trump. I'm afraid you won't see the conclusion that can be drawn from your statements.

Their brains are aware of Trump' criminality, stupidity and sociopathy, but they lack the self-awareness to grasp the absurdity of their attempts at tu quoque:

Where have I used tu quoque to defend Gary Johnson or Jo Jorgensen?

 

[ZiprHead]

Their brains are aware of Trump' criminality, stupidity and sociopathy, but they lack the self-awareness to grasp the absurdity of their attempts at tu quoque:

Where have I used tu quoque to defend Gary Johnson or Jo Jorgensen?

Yup, it's either attention deficit disorder, or just downright dishonest posting by you. Swammerdami said nothing about you and Johnson or Jorgensen. That you clipped out the pertinent part leads me to the latter conclusion.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

Their brains are aware of Trump' criminality, stupidity and sociopathy, but they lack the self-awareness to grasp the absurdity of their attempts at tu quoque:

Where have I used tu quoque to defend Gary Johnson or Jo Jorgensen?

Yup, it's either attention deficit disorder, or just downright dishonest posting by you. Swammerdami said nothing about you and Johnson or Jorgensen. That you clipped out the pertinent part leads me to the latter conclusion.

They're the only ones I have defended, so they must be the only ones I have used tu quoque to defend.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Gohmert suit may force Pence's hand in effort to overturn Trump's defeat





If Pence travels abroad and does not preside over the session, he is replaced by Chuck Grassley. I get the feeling that if the judge doesn't just sit on the case until after Jan 6, Pence won't be there to preside.

Right now, all of the elector slates fall under Safe Harbor. I believe the last time there wasn't safe harbor was Florida (2000) and Hawaii (1960). In both cases, the losing candidate oversaw the Electoral College (Gore who could have won if he swapped Florida and Nixon where Hawaii didn't matter).

So the Distinguished Asshole from Texas is saying Safe Harbor is unconstitutional. It seems funny that the GOP is arguing that a law requiring certified electoral slates must be counted as certified goes against the Constitution. But the GOP is clearly void of any legitimacy these days. They are literally trying to use technicalities to overthrow a fair election. Hasn't worked up to now and honestly, anyone involved with these cases should be impeached from office, for incompetence treason.

FIFU

Incompetence is easier to prove in court.

 

[lpetrich]

Found another Tweet on Donna Imam's analysis: Donna Imam on Twitter: "2020 Texas US Congressional Race Analysis with Donna Imam (link)" / Twitter
noting
Donna Imam: "2020 Texas US Congressional Race Analysis with Donna Imam"

Looks like the same video that I discussed earlier:

Donna Imam on Twitter: "I analyzed all 10 targeted Texas US Congressional races to uncover why EVERY SINGLE ONE was LOST, and if we don't do this (link) we could lose our slim majority in the house in 2022. https://t.co/xke7mDUZtx" / Twitter
noting
2020 Texas US Congressional Race Analysis with Donna Imam - YouTube

Looking at that presentation, I'm disappointed that Donna Imam lost. I'd *love* to see more people like that in Congress, people who demonstrate an ability to do research projects, especially research projects involving lots of numbers.

 

[lpetrich]

I finally found it. An archive of 538's data: Our Data | FiveThirtyEight

Referring to data/election-forecasts-2020 at master · fivethirtyeight/data · GitHub for what I was looking for.

First, 538's estimated probabilities.

For the Senate, there was a clean break between Democrats winning and losing at the Democrats' having a probability of 0.8 of winning.

For the House, it is a bit more complicated. All Democrats won who had a probability more than 0.87 of winning, and all Democrats lost who had a probability less than 0.39 of winning. There was an overlap zone of 1/12 of the winning Democrats and 1/7 of the losing Democrats.

So it is evident that 538 overestimated the probability of Democrats winning.

This was also evident from comparing margins of victory or defeat with 538's predictions. 538 had median, 10% pct, and 90% pct, and I calculated the deviations from 538's predictions as multiples of 538's own estimated deviations.

The median deviation was -0.62 for the House and -0.73 for the Senate, negative favoring the Republicans, deviations favoring the Democrats for only 1/5 of the House and only 2 Senators.

I checked some of the more Congresspeople that I've been following:

• CA-45 Katie Porter: -0.48
• IL-03 Marie Newman: 0.08
• MA-07 Ayanna Pressley: (no R)
• MI-13 Rashida Tlaib: -3.16
• MN-05 Ilhan Omar: -3.23
• MO-01 Cori Bush: -1.40
• NE-02 Kara Eastman: -0.28 (lost)
• NY-14 AOC: -3.29
• TN-SEN Marquita Bradshaw: -0.49 (lost)
• TX-31 Donna Imam: +0.09 (lost)
• WV-SEN Paula Jean Swearengin: -1.52 (lost)

Some others: AZ-SEN: -0.73, KY-SEN (Mitch McConnell won): -0.90, ME-SEN (Susan Collins won): -1.27, MI-SEN: -0.81, SC-SEN (Lindsey Graham won): -0.64

 

[lpetrich]

Full quartiles (0 = minimum, 1 = maximum), and with absolute also.

The quartiles (2 = median) for relative departures:
- House: -9.60, -1.11, -0.62, -0.12, +1.20
- Senate: -1.52, -0.84, -0.73, -0.39, +0.03

For absolute departures:
- House: -40.9, -17.0, -8.8, -1.8, +18.8
- Senate: -22.2, -11.2, -6.6, -3.2, +0.3

Likewise, while Joe Biden got 5% more popular vote than Trump, some predictions were for over 10%. Seems like a similar size of discrepancy.

 

[lpetrich]

The numbers: relative difference (538), absolute difference (538), actual margin of victory (- is defeat)

• CA-45 Katie Porter: -0.48 ... -8.0 ... +7.0
• IL-03 Marie Newman: +0.08 ... +1.1 ... +12.8
• MA-07 Ayanna Pressley: (no R)
• MI-13 Rashida Tlaib: -3.16 ... -27.1 ... +59.5
• MN-05 Ilhan Omar: -3.23 ... -37.3 ... +38.6
• MO-01 Cori Bush: -1.40 ... -16.2 ...+59.9
• NE-02 Kara Eastman: -0.28 ... -2.7 ... -4.6 (lost)
• NY-14 AOC: -3.29 ... -36.3 .. +44.2
• TN-SEN Marquita Bradshaw: -0.49 ... -5.9 ... -27.0 (lost)
• TX-31 Donna Imam: +0.09 ... +1.2 ... -9.2 (lost)
• WV-SEN Paula Jean Swearengin: -1.52 ... -22.2 ... -43.3 (lost)

and

• AZ-SEN: -0.73 ... -8.1 ... -12.7
• KY-SEN: -0.90 ... -9.1 ... -19.6 (Mitch McConnell won)
• ME-SEN: -1.27 ... -12.6 ... -8.6 (Susan Collins won)
• MI-SEN: -0.81 ... -5.9 ... +1.7
• SC-SEN: -0.64 ... -5.9 ... -10.3 (Lindsey Graham won)

 

[lpetrich]

Democrats battle for soul of party as Biden win masks alarming failures | Democrats | The Guardian - "The Democrats won the White House but performed poorly elsewhere, and AOC is leading the critique of how the party needs to change"

Pelosi to seat Republican in contested Iowa race - POLITICO

Speaker Nancy Pelosi confirmed Wednesday that she plans to seat the GOP winner of a contested race in Iowa on Jan. 3, despite a pending challenge from the Democratic contender in the razor-thin election.

Her decision avoids a brazen partisan showdown to kick off the 117th Congress, but it remains unclear if the GOP winner, Mariannette Miller-Meeks, will keep that seat for the entire two-year term, as Democrat Rita Hart continues to contest her six-vote loss, claiming not all legal ballots were properly counted.

In a controversial move, Hart has bypassed the Iowa courts and made her appeal contesting the results directly to the House. A House investigation is expected to take several months to make a recommendation on the true winner and then Congress can vote on who should hold the seat.

That's IA-02. NY-22 also has a tiny margin, and it also is being contested.

 

[lpetrich]

GOP Sen. Sasse blasts “ambitious” Republicans “playing with fire” in challenging 2020 result.

Sen. Ben Sasse apparently had a lot to say. In a 2,200-word Facebook post, the senator from Nebraska made clear he “will not be participating” in an effort by some of his fellow Republican lawmakers to overturn the election, characterizing it as a “dangerous ploy” that is being carried out for political gain. “Let’s be clear what is happening here: We have a bunch of ambitious politicians who think there’s a quick way to tap into the president’s populist base without doing any real, long-term damage,” Sasse wrote shortly after Sen. Josh Hawley said he would challenge President-elect Joe Biden’s victory when Congress meets to certify Electoral College votes next week. Hawley is seen as a potential presidential candidate in 2024. “But they’re wrong—and this issue is bigger than anyone’s personal ambitions. Adults don’t point a loaded gun at the heart of legitimate self-government,” Sasse added.

...
“All the clever arguments and rhetorical gymnastics in the world won’t change the fact that this January 6th effort is designed to disenfranchise millions of Americans simply because they voted for someone in a different party,” Sasse wrote. The president and those in Congress who are trying to aid his efforts to overturn the result “are playing with fire,” Sasse added, characterizing his colleagues who will pursue the initiative as “institutional arsonist members of Congress.” Ultimately, Sasse said, “We have good reason to think this year’s election was fair, secure, and law-abiding.”

noting
Senator Ben Sasse - Posts | Facebook

I like it that some Congressional Republicans are showing *some* decency.

 

[fromderinside]

As the saying goes "and they will be hoist on their own petard."

 

[lpetrich]

Pro-Trump Lawyer Calls Mike Pence a 'Wolf in Sheep's Clothing' Only Focused on 2024

Attorney Lin Wood, who has helped President Donald Trump's legal team file lawsuits challenging the results of the 2020 presidential election, posted on Parler Wednesday that he had no faith in Vice President Mike Pence.

"Tough way to start day, but TRUTH is TRUTH," Wood posted. "I do NOT trust VP Mike Pence. He is wolf in sheep's clothing. Pence is only focused on himself & 2024. He does not support President Trump. Let Pence hear your voices & read your words. If he does not support Trump, his career is over. Warn him."

Hawley faces heat from Senate Republicans over Electoral College plans - POLITICO - "The Missouri senator missed a Thursday call where Mitch McConnell asked him to explain his plans, emailing colleagues later instead."

McConnell has also expressed concern that the vote could hurt GOP senators facing tough general election fights by alienating moderate voters. Opposing the GOP-led objection, meanwhile, could jeopardize Republicans’ primary prospects by turning off voters who are convinced the election was stolen from Trump.

The clash illustrates the emerging tensions between Hawley and Republican leaders. While the Missouri senator is trying burnish his anti-establishment credentials and fill his fundraising coffers ahead of a potential 2024 presidential bid, the GOP hierarchy is looking to protect incumbent senators. Regardless of the outcome of next week’s Georgia runoff elections, neither party will have firm control of the Senate heading into the 2022 midterm elections.

A Hawley spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.

 

[lpetrich]

Two House Republicans tell CNN they expect at least 140 House Republicans to vote against counting electoral votes - CNNPolitics

Among the more than one dozen Republican House members who have already publicly said they'll vote against counting the electoral votes next week are Reps. Mo Brooks of Alabama, who's spearheading the effort, Jody Hice of Georgia, Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey and Joe Wilson of South Carolina.

Included in that group are eight Republican lawmakers from Pennsylvania, who announced their intentions in a joint statement earlier Thursday.

Several incoming Republican House members have also said they will object to the certification process, including Reps.-elect Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, Madison Cawthorn of North Carolina, Lauren Boebert of Colorado and Diana Harshbarger of Tennessee.

 

[lpetrich]

Justice Dept. Asks Judge to Toss Election Lawsuit Against Pence - The New York Times - "The suit, led by Representative Louie Gohmert of Texas, seeks to give the vice president the power to reject electoral votes that were cast for Joseph R. Biden Jr."

The department, acting on behalf of Mr. Pence, said that Republican lawmakers, led by Representative Louie Gohmert of Texas, could not invalidate the more than century-old law that governs the Electoral College process to expand an otherwise ceremonial role into one that has the power to reject electoral votes that were cast for Mr. Biden.

In a last-ditch bid to subvert the outcome of the election, Mr. Gohmert, along with other Republicans in Congress and electors in Arizona, filed a lawsuit against Mr. Pence on Sunday in an effort to force him to take on this expanded role. As the presiding officer of the Senate, Mr. Pence has the constitutionally designated responsibility of opening and tallying envelopes sent from all 50 states and announcing their electoral results when Congress convenes next week to certify the count. But changing his role would allow Mr. Trump to pressure his vice president to invalidate the results.

Trump returns to Washington on Thursday, ahead of schedule - CBS News

 

[lpetrich]

This is fun.

UNOPPOSED PLAINTIFFS' MOTION TO FILE RESPONSIVE BRIEF LATE

Come now the Plaintiffs, U.S. Rep. Louie Gohmert (TX-1), Tyler Bowyer, Nancy Cottle, Jake Hoffman, Anthony Kern, James R. Lamon, Sam Moorhead, Robert Montgomery, Loraine Pellegrino, Greg Safsten, Kelli Ward, and Michael Ward, by and through their undersigned counsel, and request that this Court allow Plaintiffs to file their responsive brief one hour late. In support thereof, Plaintiffs state:

Plaintiffs have employed a team of lawyers to prepare their responsive brief. During the course of preparation, Plaintiffs' counsel have encountered numerous technical incompatibilities in the software versions between Google Docs and Microsoft Word resulting in editing difficulties and text problems.

Josh Hammer on Twitter: "Not exactly promising. https://t.co/jYucpCqVkc" / Twitter

Then
Katie Hill on Twitter: "Cheers to these folks for pulling out the high school move of trying to submit something late and blaming it on Microsoft Word." / Twitter

Yet more incompetence of Trump's campaigners' legal team.

Microsoft Word is a standalone app that resides on its users' computers, while Google Docs exists on Google's servers. Both MSWord and GDocs can understand several document formats, and GDocs can understand MSWord's "native" format.

 

[ZiprHead]

Just read Gohmert's lawsuit has been dismissed.

https://www.npr.org/2021/01/01/952728493/in-last-minute-challenge-some-republicans-argue-pence-can-ignore-states-electors?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_term=nprnews&fbclid=IwAR1LlGt_jUteWv6Bftp7XQQt9X1kqOtZ0rsuziaEDvexX6ImXynGjBYvtDg

 

[crazyfingers]

Just read Gohmert's lawsuit has been dismissed.

No standing. What a let down. I wish the judge had called out his crazy.