A Word on White Liberals and Playing the Trump Card

[Terrell]

Right now is the equivalent of the exit pollers asking questions only about the GOP presidential hopefuls that are exiting the voting booth located at a clan rally. Once opened up to the general election, yes you'll get a few more people to vote for Trump, but the ratio of those people to those that will not vote for him will be much, much higher. Hell, there's a sizeable number of analysts that think that right now many of Trump's supporters aren't even voters. He is strongest among Republicans who are less affluent, less educated and less likely to turn out to vote, whether in the general election or (even less) in a primary election. Most polls are simply among registered Republicans right now, but among polls where the respondents are not previously caucused, Trump trails by double digits. You have to dig to find this, as it's good for ratings to have Trump front and center in the media.

I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't win Iowa, but I don't think that ends his run. I'd watch how he runs in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and other primary states. Primaries just require you to cast your vote, then you can go home, caucuses require more of your time.

 

[whichphilosophy]

The race card is frequently used to shut down the debate on uncontrolled immigration into West. Controlling one's borders limiting immigration and a tougher line on illegal entrants has frequently been been misrepresented as a racist card.

Italy for instance where I lived has high unemployment yet immigrants continue to come or at least pass through this poor place. I was based there for a few years. To defend myself against violent attacks I have had to use a steel self defence umbrella and certainly do not recommend people to live near Milan station unless they are very cautious. This umbrella is very effective by the the way which has a solid steel tip that can be used to discourage attackers. Pick pocketing is very common. One gang of women tried about once a week to rob me but I prevented this

Since the US has been known to give out amnesties, even more are encouraged to enter the US illegally if they cannot succeed through the correct application procedure or believe they cannot meet the requirements.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Trump's polling numbers are among primary voters, not general election voters. Trump has given the Democrats enough rope to not launch a single negative ad, just a collection of Trump quotes.

But if Trump could pull off the nomination, and that's is what the OP is about and not a prediction that he will, it would mean that Trump's position already had a lot more support than we may now think.

Trump's support is strong amongst the radicals of the Republican Party, the Palinistas. His positions are being thrown up against a bunch of lightweight politicians who can't fire back. Meanwhile, Trump would have to try the same schtick against Hillary Clinton, who is not a lightweight, is very intelligent, and good on her feet.

Which means Trump with the nomination need not win in the general in order to inflict damage. Goldwater didn't win in 64 but Reagan did in 80. Just something to think about.

A Trump nomination has an endless potential of finalities. The initial fear, amongst Republicans, is that he kills the entire ticket and the Dems retake all of Government. This would also destroy the Tea Party.

On the other hand, it makes America more divided during the General Election and makes the nation look stupid for putting him up there in the first place. He also provides a sense of uncertainty with foreign policy.

 

[Derec]

Meanwhile, Trump would have to try the same schtick against Hillary Clinton, who is not a lightweight, is very intelligent, and good on her feet.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Meanwhile, Trump would have to try the same schtick against Hillary Clinton, who is not a lightweight, is very intelligent, and good on her feet.

Oh, that's right. She is a bumbling idiot like Jindal, which is how she has gotten as far as she has. Not through calculated shrewdness, but bumbling idiocy.

 

[dismal]

I thought she got where she is by marrying a successful guy.

 

[braces_for_impact]

Oh, that's right. She is a bumbling idiot like Jindal, which is how she has gotten as far as she has. Not through calculated shrewdness, but bumbling idiocy.

That's what I was thinking, apparently she's dumb and slow, but still manages to outwit the Republicans at every turn. What does that say about these Republicans? Only that which is obvious. I love how I keep hearing for the right how much TALENT they have going out for president this election. Riiiight. More a sign of Dunning-Kruger in that they ALL think they're over-qualified.

 

[Derec]

Oh, that's right. She is a bumbling idiot like Jindal, which is how she has gotten as far as she has. Not through calculated shrewdness, but bumbling idiocy.

Jindal was never married to a president, at least not that I recall.
As much as I disagree with Jindal's politics, an Indian-American getting elected in the deep south is much more impressive than a wife of a president and a carpetbagger getting elected for a safe senate seat in a blue state.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Oh, that's right. She is a bumbling idiot like Jindal, which is how she has gotten as far as she has. Not through calculated shrewdness, but bumbling idiocy.

Jindal was never married to a president, at least not that I recall.
As much as I disagree with Jindal's politics, an Indian-American getting elected in the deep south is much more impressive than a wife of a president and a carpetbagger getting elected for a safe senate seat in a blue state.

Oh that's right... she's a woman.

 

[Derec]

Oh that's right... she's a woman.

It's not that she is a woman. I do not think Denis Thatcher should have been made prime minister of UK either nor do I think Joachim Sauer would make a good chancellor of Germany.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Oh that's right... she's a woman.

It's not that she is a woman. I do not think Denis Thatcher should have been made prime minister of UK either nor do I think Joachim Sauer would make a good chancellor of Germany.

Great point. I wouldn't have wanted Kennedy's wife in charge either. Of course, none of those three served in Parliament or Congress, in the Cabinet, nor been deeply involved in politics for 30 years.

Your parallels are actually perpendicular.

 

[ronburgundy]

I don't think it's the ideology inertia attribute as much as the 'still voting for the Donald' quality that she created the thread for. Which would mostly be a problem of some white people.

I don't imagine there are too many people of Mexican heritage that are ignoring the content of Trump's rhetoric in order to retain their attraction to Trump's candidacy, for example. Or Muslims (of any color) who look forward to living in this country more than an hour after Trump's rise to power.

True.

Athena's "white" was not in reference to Trump supporters, but to the liberals that oppose him. She singled out "whites" among liberals who irrationally believe that Trump's current supporters will magically move away from him once Hillary exposes his idiocy.

She'd be all over anyone making a parallel comment about blacks, when its obvious that race is at most a non-causal correlate for the behavior.

The OP is correct about the naivete of many liberals, but it is tied to a variant of liberal ideology itself, not race. Among older adults, (e.g., 40 and up), this tends to mean mostly whites because few non-whites of prior generations are actually liberal, rather they are more akin to socialists and/or religious conservatives mixed with self-interest in strongly supporting government coerced racial equality in outcomes. IOW, they are "left" but not very liberal in the classical sense of valuing personal liberty rather than merely equality of outcomes.

 

[Sarpedon]

Which means Trump with the nomination need not win in the general in order to inflict damage. Goldwater didn't win in 64 but Reagan did in 80. Just something to think about.

In 16 years the demographics will have changed. The Republicans are well aware of this and many of them seeing this election as their last chance to somehow change America back. I don't think they are wrong (about the fact they will never be stronger, at least, not that they have a chance). There will always be a conservative party, but they won't be conservative compared to the conservatives now. Demographic shifting is in our favor for the forseeable future. This will be the case until the republicans change their platform enough to appeal to a broader, or at least different base.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

True.

Athena's "white" was not in reference to Trump supporters, but to the liberals that oppose him. She singled out "whites" among liberals who irrationally believe that Trump's current supporters will magically move away from him once Hillary exposes his idiocy.

That would be stupid to think that. What isn't irrational is to understand that the middle ground voter isn't going to like what Trump says. His support among the far right isn't going anywhere. Then you'll have the anybody but Hillary vote among the right wing. However, the middle ground will shy away from Trump like they did Todd Akins who has said less embarrassing bullshit than Trump has.

She'd be all over anyone making a parallel comment about blacks, when its obvious that race is at most a non-causal correlate for the behavior.

I think the race angle isn't baseless. Trump is using highly charged anti-racial language out there among every known minority. White liberals aren't too scared because they are probably right in thinking the general electorate will tell him to f' off. The RNC is scared of him as well, for similar reasons killing the entire Republican ticket. However, the minorities in the US are probably looking at each other, especially the older among them saying "This shit sounds familiar" and are a bit nervous.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

However, the minorities in the US are probably looking at each other, especially the older among them saying "This shit sounds familiar" and are a bit nervous.

That's a good point. If you or your family members have been a victim of this sort of attitude amongst those in a position of power, hearing it expressed by someone seeking a position of power and seeing that guy have not inconsiderable support for those positions, it's likely not as funny as it is amongst those who have not been so victimized.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

George Bush was one of the biggest idiots around, got elected than when it was certain he was an idiot, got re-elected.
And in Russia, many people have a favourable opinion of Joseph Stalin. People are idiots far too often.

 

[Derec]

George Bush was one of the biggest idiots around, got elected than when it was certain he was an idiot, got re-elected.

Bush won the very close race in 2000 chiefly because Ralph Nader managed to convince the "progressive" fringe that there wasn't a "dime's worth of difference" between Gore and Bush. In 2004 Dems nominated Jphn Kerry, a very lackluster candidate.

People are idiots far too often.

Do you mean those who voted for Nader or those who could not figure out the butterfly ballot?

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Athena's "white" was not in reference to Trump supporters, but to the liberals that oppose him. She singled out "whites" among liberals who irrationally believe that Trump's current supporters will magically move away from him once Hillary exposes his idiocy.

That would be stupid to think that. What isn't irrational is to understand that the middle ground voter isn't going to like what Trump says. His support among the far right isn't going anywhere. Then you'll have the anybody but Hillary vote among the right wing. However, the middle ground will shy away from Trump like they did Todd Akins who has said less embarrassing bullshit than Trump has.

She'd be all over anyone making a parallel comment about blacks, when its obvious that race is at most a non-causal correlate for the behavior.

I think the race angle isn't baseless. Trump is using highly charged anti-racial language out there among every known minority. White liberals aren't too scared because they are probably right in thinking the general electorate will tell him to f' off. The RNC is scared of him as well, for similar reasons killing the entire Republican ticket. However, the minorities in the US are probably looking at each other, especially the older among them saying "This shit sounds familiar" and are a bit nervous.

When George Wallace ran and took 10% of the vote, the GOP decided to play the race card and move the South from Democratic territory to the GOP. The Southern strategy. And it worked. Now they are confronting the sorcerers apprentice scenario. The racism they used won't stay tamed. And the dumb bastards bitch that they can't get black Americans to vote for them.

 

[ronburgundy]

Athena's "white" was not in reference to Trump supporters, but to the liberals that oppose him. She singled out "whites" among liberals who irrationally believe that Trump's current supporters will magically move away from him once Hillary exposes his idiocy.

That would be stupid to think that.

True, but stupidity of an idea certainly does not preclude many liberals from holding it. Trump minions don't have a monopoly on stupidity.

What isn't irrational is to understand that the middle ground voter isn't going to like what Trump says. His support among the far right isn't going anywhere. Then you'll have the anybody but Hillary vote among the right wing. However, the middle ground will shy away from Trump like they did Todd Akins who has said less embarrassing bullshit than Trump has.

She'd be all over anyone making a parallel comment about blacks, when its obvious that race is at most a non-causal correlate for the behavior.

I think the race angle isn't baseless. Trump is using highly charged anti-racial language out there among every known minority. White liberals aren't too scared because they are probably right in thinking the general electorate will tell him to f' off. The RNC is scared of him as well, for similar reasons killing the entire Republican ticket. However, the minorities in the US are probably looking at each other, especially the older among them saying "This shit sounds familiar" and are a bit nervous.

You are arguing against Athena's premise that white liberal's are foolish for thinking that Trump supporters will leave him once his idiocy is "exposed" in the general.
You are claiming white liberals think he will lose because his current primary support is about all the support he would get in the general.

I think you are both partially right. I think reasonable liberals who acknowledge more fundamental differences between people and don't attribute everything to experience, especially to immediate context, rationally assume that Trumpians will remain Trumpians in the general election because it reflects who they are as people. However, others who might otherwise vote GOP will not vote for Trump and he'll lose the general.

However, I think is Athena is correct in observing that some liberals irrationally put too much weight on proximal experience and give people too much benefit of the doubt, ignoring their failings rooted in more deep-seated aspects of who they are. For these liberals, their naive hope that Trumpians will see the light is part of their general worldview that denies meaningful differences between people that often contribute to differences at the group level. Athena is also correct that these liberals tend to be white, but that is because it is a byproduct of this "everyone deep down is the same and equal" form of liberal ideology that is less likely to occur in people that are more religious, more poor, and more vicitimized by others, which are all more common among non-white leftists that are usually not very liberal.

 

[Bronzeage]

There is a belief among white liberals that all white people, given the facts of a situation, will change opinions and do or think the right thing. I hear it all the time among colleagues, white people at church, friends even in academia who really should know better. It is this belief that leads white democrats to say that they wish The Donald would win the nomination because in the debates he would show himself to be a total idiot. And people won’t vote for an idiot, That would be illogical.

Hello? The man has been showing himself to be a total idiot for YEARS now. And in this campaign, the more idiotic the things he says, the higher in the polls he goes! If Trump can pull off winning the nomination, that will mean even MORE white people will vote for him in the general, not FEWER. It will mean he has legitimized bigotry and eliminated any shame associated with race hatred. It will not only let the Djinn out of the bottle but take off his chains and break the bottle.

People won't vote for someone they think is an idiot. A small nuance, but an important one. The Trump base is sort of the Bizarro World version of the old silent majority. They aren't a majority and they aren't silent, but they are idiots.

A Trump nomination pretty much guarantees a Democrat in the White House for another 8 years. Trump is not just an idiot, he is also a misogynist, a racist, and a xenophobe. This means by election day, he will have alienated women of all colors, and all other voters who can trace their lineage to someplace other than North America. One thing the GOP is very tolerant of is people who can win elections. They do not tolerate losers.

Think of Trump as the GOP's self cleaning oven. He'll turn up the heat until all the crud is reduced to ash, then someone will sweep it out.