A Word on White Liberals and Playing the Trump Card

[AthenaAwakened]

There is a belief among white liberals that all white people, given the facts of a situation, will change opinions and do or think the right thing. I hear it all the time among colleagues, white people at church, friends even in academia who really should know better. It is this belief that leads white democrats to say that they wish The Donald would win the nomination because in the debates he would show himself to be a total idiot. And people won’t vote for an idiot, That would be illogical.

Hello? The man has been showing himself to be a total idiot for YEARS now. And in this campaign, the more idiotic the things he says, the higher in the polls he goes! If Trump can pull off winning the nomination, that will mean even MORE white people will vote for him in the general, not FEWER. It will mean he has legitimized bigotry and eliminated any shame associated with race hatred. It will not only let the Djinn out of the bottle but take off his chains and break the bottle.

 

[Jolly_Penguin]

Racist much? Oh those silly irrational white people.

 

[AthenaAwakened]

Racist much? Oh those silly irrational white people.

Oh, I forgot.

Not suppose to mention the W-word. Even when talking about W-word people.

Oh, I forgot again.

W-word people don't exist because they aren't W-word, they are just normal.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Well, what is it about white people that would make anything you said different if applied to other races?

 

[Nice Squirrel]

There is a belief among white liberals that all white people, given the facts of a situation, will change opinions and do or think the right thing.

Athena,
The folks at 538 explain it:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-supporters-appear-to-be-misinformed-not-uninformed/

I recommend the whole article.

As Kuklinski and his colleagues established, in the U.S., the most misinformed citizens tend to be the most confident in their views and are also the strongest partisans. These folks fill the gaps in their knowledge base by using their existing belief systems. Once these inferences are stored into memory, they become “indistinguishable from hard data,” Kuklinski and his colleagues found.

Furthermore, in 2010, political scientists Brendan Nyhan1 and Jason Reifler2 found that when misinformed citizens are told that their facts are wrong, they often cling to their opinions even more strongly with what is known as defensive processing, or the “backfire effect.”

Strong partisans are more likely to participate in the primary process, making it also likely that at least some highly engaged primary voters are also confidently misinformed and unwilling to accept contradictory evidence.

It is in Trump’s interest to allow misinformation — such as his statements about immigrants or Muslim Americans — to flourish. New work by Jennifer Hochschild of Harvard and Katherine Levine Einstein of Boston University found that there are incentives for politicians to keep citizens both misinformed and politically active. For most politicians, it doesn’t make sense to use precious resources to try to move or dissuade people from their incorrect positions — especially if this misinformation supports the political actor’s policy positions or legislative goals (as it does in Trump’s case).

 

[AthenaAwakened]

Athena,
The folks at 538 explain it:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-supporters-appear-to-be-misinformed-not-uninformed/

I recommend the whole article.

As Kuklinski and his colleagues established, in the U.S., the most misinformed citizens tend to be the most confident in their views and are also the strongest partisans. These folks fill the gaps in their knowledge base by using their existing belief systems. Once these inferences are stored into memory, they become “indistinguishable from hard data,” Kuklinski and his colleagues found.

Furthermore, in 2010, political scientists Brendan Nyhan1 and Jason Reifler2 found that when misinformed citizens are told that their facts are wrong, they often cling to their opinions even more strongly with what is known as defensive processing, or the “backfire effect.”

Strong partisans are more likely to participate in the primary process, making it also likely that at least some highly engaged primary voters are also confidently misinformed and unwilling to accept contradictory evidence.

It is in Trump’s interest to allow misinformation — such as his statements about immigrants or Muslim Americans — to flourish. New work by Jennifer Hochschild of Harvard and Katherine Levine Einstein of Boston University found that there are incentives for politicians to keep citizens both misinformed and politically active. For most politicians, it doesn’t make sense to use precious resources to try to move or dissuade people from their incorrect positions — especially if this misinformation supports the political actor’s policy positions or legislative goals (as it does in Trump’s case).

Exactly!

For the basic beliefs held by the Trump voter, their actions are totally logical. And for Trump to win the nomination, those basic beliefs, no matter how out of touch with reality they may be, would have to have been adopted as acceptable by more people. The misinformation will have had to have spread, like typhoid. And that is not what any thinking person should want.

 

[Derec]

There is a belief among white liberals that all white people, given the facts of a situation, will change opinions and do or think the right thing. I hear it all the time among colleagues, white people at church, friends even in academia who really should know better. It is this belief that leads white democrats to say that they wish The Donald would win the nomination because in the debates he would show himself to be a total idiot. And people won’t vote for an idiot, That would be illogical.

Hello? The man has been showing himself to be a total idiot for YEARS now. And in this campaign, the more idiotic the things he says, the higher in the polls he goes! If Trump can pull off winning the nomination, that will mean even MORE white people will vote for him in the general, not FEWER. It will mean he has legitimized bigotry and eliminated any shame associated with race hatred. It will not only let the Djinn out of the bottle but take off his chains and break the bottle.

I think you are doing quite a good job of that yourself.

 

[Keith&Co.]

Well, what is it about white people that would make anything you said different if applied to other races?

I don't think it's the ideology inertia attribute as much as the 'still voting for the Donald' quality that she created the thread for. Which would mostly be a problem of some white people.

I don't imagine there are too many people of Mexican heritage that are ignoring the content of Trump's rhetoric in order to retain their attraction to Trump's candidacy, for example. Or Muslims (of any color) who look forward to living in this country more than an hour after Trump's rise to power.

 

[Nice Squirrel]

Well, what is it about white people that would make anything you said different if applied to other races?

I don't think it's the ideology inertia attribute as much as the 'still voting for the Donald' quality that she created the thread for. Which would mostly be a problem of some white people.

I don't imagine there are too many people of Mexican heritage that are ignoring the content of Trump's rhetoric in order to retain their attraction to Trump's candidacy, for example. Or Muslims (of any color) who look forward to living in this country more than an hour after Trump's rise to power.

I honestly do not think Trump believes what he is saying. I believe he is saying these things because they bring out the voters. I am willing to change my mind as time goes on...

 

[laughing dog]

There is a belief among white liberals that all white people, given the facts of a situation, will change opinions and do or think the right thing. I hear it all the time among colleagues, white people at church, friends even in academia who really should know better. It is this belief that leads white democrats to say that they wish The Donald would win the nomination because in the debates he would show himself to be a total idiot. And people won’t vote for an idiot, That would be illogical.

Hello? The man has been showing himself to be a total idiot for YEARS now. And in this campaign, the more idiotic the things he says, the higher in the polls he goes! If Trump can pull off winning the nomination, that will mean even MORE white people will vote for him in the general, not FEWER. It will mean he has legitimized bigotry and eliminated any shame associated with race hatred. It will not only let the Djinn out of the bottle but take off his chains and break the bottle.

I think you are doing quite a good job of that yourself.

You are misusing the term "think".

 

[AthenaAwakened]

Well, what is it about white people that would make anything you said different if applied to other races?

I don't think it's the ideology inertia attribute as much as the 'still voting for the Donald' quality that she created the thread for. Which would mostly be a problem of some white people.

I don't imagine there are too many people of Mexican heritage that are ignoring the content of Trump's rhetoric in order to retain their attraction to Trump's candidacy, for example. Or Muslims (of any color) who look forward to living in this country more than an hour after Trump's rise to power.

True.

 

[Sarpedon]

It won't make him 'look stupid' in the debates. It will strain the republican coalition by forcing anti-trump republicans to choose between voting party line and staying home. It may knock a bunch of nominally independent but defacto republican voters into actually not voting republican this time. In our polarized situation, even a few percentage points can be decisive. With luck we might be able to flip a few thinly gerrymandered districts.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Well, what is it about white people that would make anything you said different if applied to other races?

I don't think it's the ideology inertia attribute as much as the 'still voting for the Donald' quality that she created the thread for. Which would mostly be a problem of some white people.

I don't imagine there are too many people of Mexican heritage that are ignoring the content of Trump's rhetoric in order to retain their attraction to Trump's candidacy, for example. Or Muslims (of any color) who look forward to living in this country more than an hour after Trump's rise to power.

Fair point. The "Voting for Trump" bloc is pretty much made up of white people.

 

[hurtinbuckaroo]

There is a belief among white liberals that all white people, given the facts of a situation, will change opinions and do or think the right thing. I hear it all the time among colleagues, white people at church, friends even in academia who really should know better. It is this belief that leads white democrats to say that they wish The Donald would win the nomination because in the debates he would show himself to be a total idiot. And people won’t vote for an idiot, That would be illogical.

Hello? The man has been showing himself to be a total idiot for YEARS now. And in this campaign, the more idiotic the things he says, the higher in the polls he goes! If Trump can pull off winning the nomination, that will mean even MORE white people will vote for him in the general, not FEWER. It will mean he has legitimized bigotry and eliminated any shame associated with race hatred. It will not only let the Djinn out of the bottle but take off his chains and break the bottle.

I think the belief is that the majority won't vote for an idiot. There are plenty of people who are actually attracted to idiots, but we haven't reached the tipping point yet.

 

[laughing dog]

I honestly do not think Trump believes what he is saying. I believe he is saying these things because they bring out the voters. I am willing to change my mind as time goes on...

I know lots of people who think the same thing. But I don't think it matters what Trump actually believes or not. He is clearly playing to a demographic of voters to come out and vote for him. If Trump is successful, those voters will also have voted for like-minded candidates. That means if Trump wins, he and the other candidates will owe their positions to those voters. At some point, he and the other elected officials who rode that wave will feel the need to placate or satisfy that bloc - regardless of Trump's or the other officials actual beliefs. Otherwise they will expect to feel the wrath of those voters in the next election. Which may not matter to Trump but it will to the other officials.

 

[AthenaAwakened]

I honestly do not think Trump believes what he is saying. I believe he is saying these things because they bring out the voters. I am willing to change my mind as time goes on...

I know lots of people who think the same thing. But I don't think it matters what Trump actually believes or not. He is clearly playing to a demographic of voters to come out and vote for him. If Trump is successful, those voters will also have voted for like-minded candidates. That means if Trump wins, he and the other candidates will owe their positions to those voters. At some point, he and the other elected officials who rode that wave will feel the need to placate or satisfy that bloc - regardless of Trump's or the other officials actual beliefs. Otherwise they will expect to feel the wrath of those voters in the next election. Which may not matter to Trump but it will to the other officials.

Good Point.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

There is a belief among white liberals that all white people, given the facts of a situation, will change opinions and do or think the right thing. I hear it all the time among colleagues, white people at church, friends even in academia who really should know better. It is this belief that leads white democrats to say that they wish The Donald would win the nomination because in the debates he would show himself to be a total idiot. And people won’t vote for an idiot, That would be illogical.

Hello? The man has been showing himself to be a total idiot for YEARS now. And in this campaign, the more idiotic the things he says, the higher in the polls he goes! If Trump can pull off winning the nomination, that will mean even MORE white people will vote for him in the general, not FEWER. It will mean he has legitimized bigotry and eliminated any shame associated with race hatred. It will not only let the Djinn out of the bottle but take off his chains and break the bottle.

Trump's polling numbers are among primary voters, not general election voters. Trump has given the Democrats enough rope to not launch a single negative ad, just a collection of Trump quotes.

 

[AthenaAwakened]

There is a belief among white liberals that all white people, given the facts of a situation, will change opinions and do or think the right thing. I hear it all the time among colleagues, white people at church, friends even in academia who really should know better. It is this belief that leads white democrats to say that they wish The Donald would win the nomination because in the debates he would show himself to be a total idiot. And people won’t vote for an idiot, That would be illogical.

Hello? The man has been showing himself to be a total idiot for YEARS now. And in this campaign, the more idiotic the things he says, the higher in the polls he goes! If Trump can pull off winning the nomination, that will mean even MORE white people will vote for him in the general, not FEWER. It will mean he has legitimized bigotry and eliminated any shame associated with race hatred. It will not only let the Djinn out of the bottle but take off his chains and break the bottle.

Trump's polling numbers are among primary voters, not general election voters. Trump has given the Democrats enough rope to not launch a single negative ad, just a collection of Trump quotes.

But if Trump could pull off the nomination, and that's is what the OP is about and not a prediction that he will, it would mean that Trump's position already had a lot more support than we may now think. Not to mention, when a national party nominee holds a position, simply by being the nominee he give a certain credibility to the position.

Which means Trump with the nomination need not win in the general in order to inflict damage. Goldwater didn't win in 64 but Reagan did in 80. Just something to think about.

 

[4321lynx]

There is a belief among white liberals that all white people, given the facts of a situation, will change opinions and do or think the right thing. I hear it all the time among colleagues, white people at church, friends even in academia who really should know better. It is this belief that leads white democrats to say that they wish The Donald would win the nomination because in the debates he would show himself to be a total idiot. And people won’t vote for an idiot, That would be illogical.

Hello? The man has been showing himself to be a total idiot for YEARS now. And in this campaign, the more idiotic the things he says, the higher in the polls he goes! If Trump can pull off winning the nomination, that will mean even MORE white people will vote for him in the general, not FEWER. It will mean he has legitimized bigotry and eliminated any shame associated with race hatred. It will not only let the Djinn out of the bottle but take off his chains and break the bottle.

I think the belief is that the majority won't vote for an idiot. There are plenty of people who are actually attracted to idiots, but we haven't reached the tipping point yet.

How is Trump an idiot? He appears to be a street-wise fighter, a very successful businessman, who is preaching to the converted. He may in fact be converting a few, or just letting them feel free to "come out of the cupboard", but world and US events probably did more for him than his wild speeches which simply fit the times as far as a certain percentage of people in the US, mainly Republicans, are concerned. IMHO Trump's success is a comment on the attitude of some Americans - not an original conclusion. It has the same origins as the growing support for neo-fascists in Europe, for example Le Pen in France or the present governements of Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Russia, Ukraine, and many others.
I dare say Trump and his supporters would be genuinely hurt by being called Fascist as would the members of the aforementioned "democracies or quasi-democracies", but that is what they are in many ways, a bunch of Fascists.
If people say Trump is an idiot in thinking that this will win him the office of President, then OK, I share that view, but he may win the Rep nomination faulte de mieux.

 

[braces_for_impact]

Right now is the equivalent of the exit pollers asking questions only about the GOP presidential hopefuls that are exiting the voting booth located at a clan rally. Once opened up to the general election, yes you'll get a few more people to vote for Trump, but the ratio of those people to those that will not vote for him will be much, much higher. Hell, there's a sizeable number of analysts that think that right now many of Trump's supporters aren't even voters. He is strongest among Republicans who are less affluent, less educated and less likely to turn out to vote, whether in the general election or (even less) in a primary election. Most polls are simply among registered Republicans right now, but among polls where the respondents are not previously caucused, Trump trails by double digits. You have to dig to find this, as it's good for ratings to have Trump front and center in the media.