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A world with no US federal government debt

Sure, you can print enough money to wipe out the debt, but paying $1 million for a loaf of bread and having the Chinese-led trade embargo bar any of your products from ever leaving your borders again would make it somewhat of a phyrric victory.

Who said anything about printing enough money to wipe out the debt immediately?

America is not Wermacht Germany.

Well ... what? They're going to do it slowly and ... fool people? Not have anyone figure out what they're doing and let everyone else know? What exactly is the difference between doing it slowly and doing it over the course of several years and which holders of US debt is it that you assume won't catch on and accelerate the process so that it happens more rapidly and destructively?

I'm just totally unsure what the process is by which you're having the US government go about doing this.
 
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Huh?

There are other entities that issue bonds besides the US govt.

Ah, I didn't read your post closely enough and assumed your were staying on topic about the US government bond market instead of talking about the bond market as a whole.

I'll rephrase:

But my main question in the thread is what would happen without a US Treasury bond market should the conservatives get their way and pay off the debt?

The bond market would trade other bonds. Just like it does now.
 
I've actually given this topic some thought, so I'll weigh in with my thoughts.

Let's say that instead of using monetary policy to combat inflation, we used fiscal policy.

In other words, we let unemployment get down to NAIRU and then rather than increase interest rates, we increase taxes to balance the budget to hold inflation down. If inflation keeps happening anyway, we keep raising taxes until it stabilizes.

This is probably the only way to actually pay off the debt without destroying the economy, by the way. As long as we don't accidentally overdue the surplus and set off deflation, keep real interest rates pretty low, and maintain positive real economic growth, the debt to GDP ratio will erode down to nothing quite quickly, as little as 20-30 years. It will be necessary to start cutting taxes to ensure the surplus isn't too big partway into the process. This isn't actually all that fanciful a scenario, incidentally, it's basically what happened in the US from about 1948 to about 1968, when the debt as a percentage of GDP plummeted from a peak of over 135% to a minimum of just under 40%, including the tax cut under Kennedy. There was not a uniform surplus in all of these, but there very frequently was and the deficit as a percentage of GDP never got above 2.5%. Arguably, Kennedy's tax cut was a little too much.

The progress towards reducing the debt was disrupted first by the arrival of peak US conventional oil production circa 1968 or so, necessitating a long term trade deficit and kicking off stagflation, and then by the insanity of the Reagan and Bush Tax Cuts. Without the Reagan revolution, it is quite likely that the US debt actually would have been down to functionally nothing by now, even after the Housing Bubble Crisis, had such a thing occurred.

So let's imagine a world without Reagan, or one in which the tide of the Tea Party is rolled back over the next generation so that counter-cyclical fiscal policy can be achieved and balanced budgets can be achieved again.

Let's say further we abandon monetary policy as a tool for economic regulation because there's no longer a market for Federal debt for the Fed to use, and we switch whole hog to fiscal policy. OK, we've just committed ourselves to maintaining price security at full employment by having the government tax more than it spends, which means it has to invest that surplus. Suddenly, a new and wholly incredible animal bursts into being, the National Credit, or perhaps the National Treasure, or more simply the US Sovereign Wealth Fund. It'll come to that well before the Debt is actually paid off, because a significant portion of the National Debt is held by the Social Security Trust Fund. Once the last privately held US Bond is repurchased by the Treasury or (more likely) the SS Trust Fund, the Trust Fund will have no choice but to invest in the larger market.

At first, it will probably start buying state and municipal bonds or the sovereign bonds of trusted US allies, or personal mortgage debts and student loan debts. More likely a combination of all of the above. Eventually though these wells will run dry, and the need to control inflation with a surplus will drive the Treasury into the corporate bond market, and finally the stock market itself.

Relatively quickly, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee will have a new way to control the interest rate in lieu of the market for Federal debt, it will just operate with the market for Federal credit.

As the National Credit grows, a new problem emerges. An ever-escalating percentage of the government's revenue comes from interest income on the credit. By the time the National Credit is as large compared to GDP as the Debt is now, interest income will be on the order of one-fifth to one-seventh of total revenue. When the ratio of credit to GDP gets to 400% or 600%, we'll have reached the point where no taxes whatsoever are needed, and to keep the surplus from spiraling to infinity, you'll either have to greatly expand federal spending to absorb the interest income or start paying overall income subsidies. In fact, you'll have to have instituted negative income tax rates for lower income tax brackets long before this point if you want to maintain the progressive redistribution of income in the tax system.

Once this Bizarro World scenario is reached, things are very weird indeed. Almost every corporation that has outstanding debts owes that money to the government. The government owns significant stock in all publicly held corporations. The wealthy pay no taxes except perhaps an estate tax, and average workers both keep all their earnings and see a significant subsidy, but all of these workers owe the government money on their mortgages. The biggest problem now is that since the government owns so much of the economy, it has to run it. We've basically stumbled our way into the Soviet system by a very circuitous route, and there's every reason to expect that it would be horribly inefficient.

More to the point, we have an example of what a government rich enough to mostly forgo taxation looks like: Saudi Arabia. While it is difficult to see how a USA with a National Credit could lapse out of Democracy, but it's pretty easy to see a USA where flat taxation is implemented to the even further detriment of equality.

Moreover, as interest income becomes a larger portion of revenue, the temptation to stop controlling inflation with fiscal policy (eternal surpluses) and to switch to monetary policy (periods of higher real interest rates) is going to become overwhelming for politicians. In tandem with null or flat taxation, permanently higher real interest rates will make the rich richer and the poor poorer even faster.

The other problem with the above scenario is that not all inflation (or deflation) is caused by high overall employment. A serious shock limiting supply of a vital product (like the energy crisis of the 1970s) can cause inflationary pressure, while a technological development that increases the efficiency of the production of a product or products can cause deflationary pressure (like the industrialization of the 1870s to 1900). Likewise high population growth can cause inflationary pressure while low population growth can cause deflationary pressure (like contemporary Japan). A major financial crisis will still set your efforts at paying dawn debt or building credit back an entire generation, because deficit spending and zero interest rates are your only tool for fighting off deflation and unemployment. Since the Baby Boom would have caused inflationary pressure and it coincided with the biggest surpluses in recent American history, I'd say in a lower birth rate world of the future, a purely Fiscalist economy is going to be running deficits more often than surpluses.

In the real world of course, I'd prefer to keep both the tools of monetary AND fiscal policy available for intervention. I'd also like to be rid of the zero lower bound by abolishing physical currency so that monetary policy can work in a deflationary climate. I'd prefer to see inflation combated with fiscal policy instead of higher interest rates though.

I'd also like a pony.

Clearly the world where the government owns everything through the National Credit is undesirable, just as the hyperinflation world of infinite debt is undesirable, but given the choice between an economy with a small debt and a small credit, say about the size of the Social Security Trust Fund as a percentage of the economy, I'd prefer the latter.

Hopefully this musing has been helpful.
 
Fixing the deficit with the printing press just leads to hyperinflation. The "cure" is worse than the disease.

How about fixing the onerous debt which the people don't actually owe with laws? We used to have laws against gambling because there are people who are capable of guaranteeing the average guy will lose his money at a fixed casino. You seem to think outfits like Goldman Sachs, Chase, Citi, and BofA are all legitimate. You seem to think they are operating just fine? These outfits loan out billions at two digit interest rates and pay on their account something like 1/10th of a percent.
When we look at our debt, most of it has been accrued by war mongers, resource thieves, and crooked banksters.

Dealing with these issues would not require a printing press so much as a fairer set of laws based on egalitarian needs.

Even if you are right this has nothing to do with the situation--we are talking government debt, not business debt. The government didn't borrow money from the businesses in the first place. They sold bonds, something that's normally bought by investors, not businesses. (Other than short-term notes that are commonly used as maximum-safety parking place for money.)
 
Lets not argue about hyperinflation as even if it doesn't cause hyperinflation the result is inflation equal to the change in the money supply. This is a tax, just a hidden one--it's a tax on every dollar in the economy. That's one hell of a tax bite--and then we get the big economic disruption all that inflation causes besides.

Only fools try to use the printing press to deal with deficits. It always causes big problems.
 
Sound like Utopia?
What would happen after the disappearance of the bond market?
All the "wealth" or other money that was invested in T Bills would have to be deployed elsewhere. That would be huge. Demand for USD would drop off significantly.
 
Sound like Utopia?

What would happen after the disappearance of the bond market?

The US doesn't have to have any debt. We can print the money we need to fund government out of thin air. But we don't do that.

Why? Is it because of the thirst for US debt?

It would be more environmentally-friendly to grow the money on trees. Why aren't you growing money on trees?
 
I assume you meant Weimar Germany rather than German army

Actually, the German army of WW2 is the Heer, the Wehrmacht refers to the military as a whole. Wermacht Germany would translate to something like "whodoes Germany".

Considerably better then the Weremacht, which is presumably those members of the German workforce that transform into machine tools during a full moon.
 
I assume you meant Weimar Germany rather than German army

Actually, the German army of WW2 is the Heer, the Wehrmacht refers to the military as a whole. Wermacht Germany would translate to something like "whodoes Germany".
There you go.
I learn something new every day.
How can I put that nugget into a conversation to dazzle my friends and rellies?
 
Actually, the German army of WW2 is the Heer, the Wehrmacht refers to the military as a whole. Wermacht Germany would translate to something like "whodoes Germany".
There you go.
I learn something new every day.
How can I put that nugget into a conversation to dazzle my friends and rellies?

'Hey, know who didn't barrack for Richmond? Adolf Hitler. And on the topic of Nazi Germany...'
 
There you go.
I learn something new every day.
How can I put that nugget into a conversation to dazzle my friends and rellies?

'Hey, know who didn't barrack for Richmond? Adolf Hitler. And on the topic of Nazi Germany...'

Well, der. Obviously Hitler would have been a Collingwood supporter.
 
Sound like Utopia?

What would happen after the disappearance of the bond market?

The US doesn't have to have any debt. We can print the money we need to fund government out of thin air. But we don't do that.

Why? Is it because of the thirst for US debt?
There is federal debt for many reasons. There is a "thirst" to own it because it represents the closest thing to a risk-free asset. Debt financing does provide some restraint on the part of the borrower, since repayment is usually expected and intended.
 
Sound like Utopia?

What would happen after the disappearance of the bond market?

The US doesn't have to have any debt. We can print the money we need to fund government out of thin air. But we don't do that.

Why? Is it because of the thirst for US debt?

It would be more environmentally-friendly to grow the money on trees. Why aren't you growing money on trees?

Naw. Inconvenient. We'd have to uproot trees to pay for large projects like missions to the moon, aircraft carriers, and super slabs. I'm sure financial CEOs would be very unhappy about getting trees with a fixed crop life.
 
'Hey, know who didn't barrack for Richmond? Adolf Hitler. And on the topic of Nazi Germany...'

Well, der. Obviously Hitler would have been a Collingwood supporter.
I always thought Adolf would have made an excellent Carlton man. Though Collingwood is plausible
 
Well, der. Obviously Hitler would have been a Collingwood supporter.
I always thought Adolf would have made an excellent Carlton man. Though Collingwood is plausible

Benito Mussolini was a Carlton fan (or should that be the other way around?). Adolf liked to see everyone as black and white.
 
There's no federal debt from the Tarp program. Tarp made money.

We're not out of the woods yet, Harry and it did us no good to set up the crisis creators with massive loans so they can go at it again. So what that it "made money?"
The big banks have a stranglehold on the entire economy and TARP just bailed out people who should have been taken down for their shady dealings. It kind of reminds me how the U.S. under Condoleza Rice kept a ceasefire from happening to give U.S. arms suppliers a chance to refill the Israeli arsenal with cluster bombs which were dropped before peace could be even discussed in Lebanon. It really is just the same type of move....supporting the offender....hell! partnering with the offenders.

You never seem to see past the bottom line in all these issues...the bottom line is just something that keeps moving and at any point the little people stand to lose no matter what it looks like for whom. TARP bailed out the crookedest of the banks and made them whole...but they are still crooked. The rapid repayment of the TARP debt is just another measure of HOW CROOKED THEY ARE. If a poor guy shows up with a lot of sudden money, everybody suspects him..."How did he get that money?" If a bank show miraculous profits...I suppose you think it is due to the GENIUSES at the top...masters of the intricate business of high finance. It isn't that at all. It is because they are the ultimate crooks.
 
There's no federal debt from the Tarp program. Tarp made money.

We're not out of the woods yet, Harry and it did us no good to set up the crisis creators with massive loans so they can go at it again. So what that it "made money?"
The big banks have a stranglehold on the entire economy and TARP just bailed out people who should have been taken down for their shady dealings. It kind of reminds me how the U.S. under Condoleza Rice kept a ceasefire from happening to give U.S. arms suppliers a chance to refill the Israeli arsenal with cluster bombs which were dropped before peace could be even discussed in Lebanon. It really is just the same type of move....supporting the offender....hell! partnering with the offenders.

You never seem to see past the bottom line in all these issues...the bottom line is just something that keeps moving and at any point the little people stand to lose no matter what it looks like for whom. TARP bailed out the crookedest of the banks and made them whole...but they are still crooked. The rapid repayment of the TARP debt is just another measure of HOW CROOKED THEY ARE. If a poor guy shows up with a lot of sudden money, everybody suspects him..."How did he get that money?" If a bank show miraculous profits...I suppose you think it is due to the GENIUSES at the top...masters of the intricate business of high finance. It isn't that at all. It is because they are the ultimate crooks.

Not all the banks were involved in the sub prime mess. My bank never did a subprime loan. I had never even heard of them until 2008. Tarp didn't "bail out" the banks. The banks in bad condition were allowed to fail. TARP was an equity injection into mostly strong banks that was designed to instill confidence in a scary market and prevent a run on deposits.

I'm not sure how to address your "geniuses at the top" comment. Banks that aggressively pursued sub prime loans went under. Their shareholders lost everything. The "geniuses" at my bank took over many of these poorly managed banks and grew.
 
which banks were allowed to go under again? I missed reading their names in the news.
 
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