there is no explanation for how Free Will emerged ex nihilo
Ok, so, first, this supposes that "nihilo" exists, existed, and that it
can exist or could have ever.
It assumes properties of "nothing" when "nothing" has no properties that we could hope to understand.
Your whinge about lacking knowledge of what caused the universe mirrors a common creationist trope in the argument from creation: "atheism doesn't explain how existence emerged ex nihilo, so it must be god".
You don't need to explain how or why a system comes to be to point to some element of it existing as it does, however.
The universe exists as a "brute" fact across whatever spaces it occupies, occupied, and will occupy, but "now" is never at the same place as "then" and "here" is never at the same place as "there", and that the structure of "nothing" may simply be
unstable such that it
breaks into things. That said, this implies "now" exists in many different locations.
If we want to answer pithy explanation, "it just fucking does". It looks like a "Goddidit" to me, though.
In the past I expected that in some probabilistic way, everything that can create the universe does create the universe whenever it creates the universe, where "the universe" just means "these laws on this field up to the horizon so far as has been revealed of some aperiodic patch. I admit it could be something like a Schrodinger's box entanglement state, wherein the structure becomes resolved into a more constrained wave/particle as the "observation" is forced to resolve. It could still be this way, even as a deterministic system.
But now, I expect it's like the future: Only one did (just as only one will happen wherever any instance of any relatively autonomous structure exists) but "which one" is just absolutely pointless to ask. We'll know if and when the simulation is "pierced" if it's a simulation, and if we are there to see it and talk about it.
We might be able to actually describe possible origins for our own universe: what events come to simulate it or something like it, but that still doesn't actually even resolve the problem for us. Maybe it tells us how to test for that specific origin, but probably not.
Occam's razor advises that it's always best to assume the simplest explanation: the one with fewest assumptions, the one with the fewest elements. For a whole closed simulation, it's the one where this just exists as it does where it does and that's just how it is and how it's gonna be, but not because it necessarily
has to be.
...Then you test the snot out of that to see if there's more to it, and how you might come to observe that.
But the point is, looking there for answers is just pointless. Instead, it's up to us to understand the brute facts of our existence as it presents before us, without arguing from our ignorance as to "why", that such brute facts as are before us cannot exist.
I truly appreciate the reply, and I also appreciate the prose. It is a story that hangs together.
In the end, however, it is just a story that is more probably a fairy tale than an accurate explanation.
No, it just indicates that you pulled the need for an ex-nihilo explanation out your ass, and that brute facts stand on their own. If you want to actually offer a substantive response to the directly present reality of our autonomy,, I have invited you several times to educate yourself.
I have told you the subjects you would need to study, and all of the proofs and arguments and evidences for what I discussed, as might be applicable, are available in those disciplines as indicated.
It is not a fact anyone, neither you nor I not a creator god, can violate, in that we NEED an explanation beyond the brute reality of the thing.
As to the topic of "possibilities", and brute facts...
One thing I am currently engaged in, in a macrophysical scale system, is starting a game of Dwarf Fortress. This will be my first serious game started since the early steam releases.
Today I observed about 6 possible DF Universes before I settled on the one I picked. None of them existed in the same place and time, and more than one of them remains "possible" insofar as "possibly continued from initialization on".
After creating "worlds" until I got one with characteristics I wanted (namely a heavy aquifer under a "good" region capable of creating a defensive water barrier. This is important because now, according to the physics of the game, invaders can now dig, and aquifers are extremely difficult to dig through: they provide a controllable barrier from interference.
Another thing to note is that because this is a simulation that I can start and stop, time in it looks a little different: I can "save" the immediate state of the world, restore it to an earlier state, do something differently "at the same point in time in the system", by fudging an RNG output or forcing an outcome: this is a direct observation of possibilities, but notably none of these "possibilities" exist at the same point in time in "the contextual spacetime".
What is meant by this is that when we observe each permutation, we observe it before or after or to the left or right of them being executed separately from each other. Different locations in spacetime undergird each permutation of "possibilities"...
But by looking at one of them, we do see not merely what "could" happen "if the pRNG returns 0 instead of 1", we see what does happen where the pRNG returns this way.
As such, when you ask "what could happen in the next moment of this system", you get a Very Large number of answers, equivalent to the size of a particular permutation group deter.ined from the number of ways the next instruction can be formulated, times the number of addresses that instruction can access, times the number of values each address group accessed by each instruction can contain. It is difficult to express how large this number is, especially seeing as 64 bit address space is large, and x86 has variable-length instructions that may act on many addresses.
In a more limited sense, we can observe more limited permutation groups of possibilities in terms of "what can happen depending on whether r3 contains 0, 1, or 2", a permutation group of size three.
We can answer "what can the system do depending on X" with "what
does the system do
where [1, 2, 3]" and no one instance of the system needs to do what the others do for that to be true. It ends up being true "of the particle composed of all of them" existing not just at A place in time but as a timespan-volume, a hyper-volume, or as a "set": "this set contains one or more instance for which (statement) is true".
We do clearly, as I have been saying, have the power to observe possibilities at alternative locations and times from our perspective, but all at the same time and
without concern to location from
simulation time, but the idea that they really exist at the same time is illusory, revealed as a lie by looking behind the curtain and watching me simulate it differently a finite number of times over a long span of time.
This allows me the ability to predict perfect responses to all the things that happen. I can save-scum and cheat my way into observing all manner of "unlikely" events, to the point where one moment "the world" is DF-shaped, and the next it's suddenly Doom, wherein a complete memory state shift has occurred... But I can't decide what the "clean" system does, assuming the idea of a "clean" system has any meaning in the first place. At best, I can manipulate the state with varying degrees of obviousness in various ways, or make access on the metaphysically detached spaces through implementation.
Through implementation, we can "enforce" a brute fact of existence in such a simulation that way, such that a simulation suffers A Series of Unfortunate Events. In A way I am responsible for creating a horrible set of outcomes as much as everyone in the simulation is responsible for having natures that allow me to do so.
But this does not in any way influence the truth of what happens, wherever it happens, when it executes
without me actually doing anything beyond getting it to the point where I can unpause. Indeed, this is part of why I discussed the actual observed role of noise in signal processing, and the effects of it: I can "attack" it in various ways, so as to impart instructions and cause things to happen but
without such "attacks", all I can do is observe, at different times, the same deterministic outcome, even though we can directly produce alternatives elsewhere.
Admittedly, I do interfere with a "noise" shaped to alter the state in a way "almost libertarian". This is perhaps the intuition that our ancestors used when thinking about Gods as an approach to handle these ideas; whatever sources the signal that controls the body holds this sort of 'momentary responsibility' equal to the expression of that control, even if that thing happens to be a brain made of meat composed of "system stuff".
With human brains, all the mechanisms to make such decisions as I do in the game exists right here "in the greatest game I know of", without the need for an open line to an external brain capable of making such decisions.
Still, when I just create the universe with one massive momentary act of creative statement, when I literally "speak" the world into existence, things still end up existing with autonomy from me. It would be the easiest thing in the world to reach out and make dwarves start doing things, and to be fair, because it's part of the game that
they all die horribly when you don't assert control over the freedoms of the system so as to make decisions as to what system tree branches you will view... But they do have autonomy, as a directly measurable independence in action from anything I happened to be doing at the time (seeing as I'm sitting on the couch just looking at them and typing on my phone).
In fact, as it stands, the dwarves have some remaining autonomy in how they go about their actions even when I play god, even if the "autonomy" is merely the determination of the specific behaviors "rolled" on with an RNG or their priorities levels or based on the dwarf's current needs. Again, just like the magical libertarian will composed of "randomness" or whatever, the developer replaced the sensible actions of a brain with a dice roller rather than make a more robust mind, when deciding what to do to meet their immediate needs.
Were the dwarves to have more complicated mechanisms for rendering decisions, these mechanisms in their configuration would form more interesting "responsibilities" that they would have. Maybe they would be able to adjust their own "gain" and "priorities" based on observation, learning, and choices to train themselves, but because programming that is hard and it's a game, the world outsources all the more advanced aspects of logistics and planning to the human player, even if the dwarves work through to fulfillment.
We don't need to ask "why these physics" to observe "check out these physics" or to ask "why is metaphysics like this" to observe "metaphysics be like this", and at the level we currently see physics, it's "one of these, possibly, or maybe something else, and we won't know until we know, assuming there is anything to know, which there might not be".
This is the only honest presentation; anything that assumes some specific thing more discounts the valid possibility of what else could be.
These are not really things that stand to be argued against, however. They are true from the axioms of math, and confirmed in brute observation, and they are true even about the domains where some uncertainty remains, no matter how that uncertainty is shown to be resolved, and every brute truth happens offset to the others in some way, individually.
In some respects this allows us to understand why the idea of alternatives is not contradictory, and why they never needed to be at the same place in containing spacetime to be at the same time and place in system time. This is just a restatement of what I was saying about how science and math tend to model things in ways where two things can't "really" be in the same place at the same time and also be different; rather it ends up being modeled as "the same time at different places", whenever it is observed, regardless of whether we consider "metaphysically detached spaces" or just "super-physically joined" ones.
This is consistent with the fact that only one future is ever experienced from any perspective, even if that future reveals many parallel present moments occurring in a container.
Again, this is not merely a story, this is all factually constructed from math and observation as necessary, using a direct example that actually has a god (however puny).
In this way we have an actual physical example where the language "it could happen any one of these ways" is equivalent to "the set of spacetime locations it does happen includes resolutions in each of these ways".
Still, it seems ridiculous that all such conversations get so hung up on
this discussion that we can never advance the discussion on to what useful principles we can squeeze out of responsibility in terms of understanding when and if certain actions are justified and why and relative to what considerations.
Really, to get there, we require at least some buy-in that human action happens pursuant to "goals" and some measure of justification we invent for ourselves individually so as to impose our decisions on the world or to impose our forbearance on others' decisions. "Goals" are principally important in game theory and allow is a term we can start manipulating to hopefully find a more general sort of "ought" and "meta-goals" -- abstract goals pertaining to other goals -- such as the goal to be free from having your goals selected externally to some boundary.
One of the reasons it would be really useful if any of the people who claim to have thought about this in depth actually knew any of the jargon or terminology or examples that exist in the professional fields which these conversations are handled by.
So far, I have covered some basic cryptography, foundational set theory, simulation theory, game theory, graph theory, systems theory, machine learning, psychology, signal processing, and some adjacent bits of integrated information theory.
I would encourage anyone with real interest in gaining useful insights about the world through these sorts of discussions to study those things and to practice at how to apply the principles you learn there.