The staging of the evacuation was messed up, but again, no one saw the Afghan Army dropping weapons immediately either. That complicated things greatly. But all things being equal, this ended much better than it was looking like it would. Low bar, but it is still a bar.
Yeah, the people having conniption fits about "the exit" are basically the people that haven't been paying attention at all.
The simplest explanation: the government really believed its own bullshit regarding the ANA. They thought they would be able to hold out for at least a few months, if not years. Turns out they got about a week, and it only cost them a couple trillion dollars.
It isn't that simple. Often when mistakes are made, the wrong questions were asked.
Could the Afghan military defend against the Taliban? Yes. On paper, they had the training and weapons to make it work for some period of time, probably months. The probably months should have led us to another question.
The next question in hindsight, wasn't "How long would the Afghan military hold off the Taliban?" It was "If the Afghan military isn't expected to be able to hold off the Taliban for more than a period of months, why would they try to hold them off at all?" Almost no one asked this question. I mean no one, except maybe some analysts that were ignored.
The United States had 2003 as a brilliant example of why maybe the CIA and US Military should have seen this coming. The Iraqi military very easily could have resisted and held back the American military, but they were never going to win. So they surrendered before we even began our incursion. Self-preservation led to the lay down of weapons. So in the end, the US trained a military force that could fight and defend itself... if the US had a presence and they knew that it was most likely true there would be no beheadings.
Basically, the exit went about as well, and in a lot of ways better, than pretty much the entire war.
This is why I hate the term "war". Afghanistan was an occupation, not a war. Our occupation led to the freeing of half the nation's population... many of whom have
gone into hiding. Sports, education, exposed faces... where the US had help provide decent stability life had changed tremendously for the good... for 15 or so years. Afghanistan's Cricket team is one of the best in ODI and T20 globally. Or at least was. Their captain, Rashid Khan was playing in the Hundred's tournament in England when this went down and his family is stuck, possibly at risk. Male cricketers don't know if their lives (their family's lives) at risk. Women cricketers darn well know they are.
Yes, the exit went much better than expected, and the US didn't abandon all of Afghanistan. They helped a lot get our, whom would have been at greatest risk of reprisal from the Taliban. The rest of the nation, though, primarily in the cities... they have been recaptured and their lives are at a level of anxiety we can not imagine.
The US fucked up in Afghanistan, all of that fuck up didn't make everything worse. Things were better in many places in the country, primarily urban areas. It wasn't perfect, it wasn't hell. It is transitioning back to different levels of hell for Afghanis now.
So I find it hard to take people howling about the exit and how terrible it was very seriously.
Biden's numbers dropped because it looked bad, but as I noted in a Faux article title, almost no Americans give a damn about Afghanistan or the Afghanis. So their embarrassment over the withdrawal will evaporate quite quickly. The withdrawal wasn't a disaster, there was a bombing and tragedy, but otherwise, it couldn't have been done any better... and most ironically with the approval and assistance of the Taliban.