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Are Constitutional Monarchies More Stable?

No. Not all monarchies. Constitutional ones like Great Britain now and the Netherlands and Denmark. Where the monarch’s power is significantly diminished. Absolute monarchies like Saudi Arabia are no different than other autocracies. They are repressive and have to be to maintain the status quo. But they are fundamentally unstable and likely to collapse violently eventually.

Indeed the French Revolution was only the last of many revolts French monarchs dealt with. There was the Frond which impacted Louis XIV, there were bread riots in the early 1770’s. And many other problems throughout their long reign. Same with the Tsars. Same with English kings in medieval times.

But that’s not what I meant. King Charles’ power consists in acting as an important rallying symbol of the nation, not in any governmental role. Does this symbol help glue the nation together and bind the people so that in the end they are working together? They transcend partisan politics that can tear pure republics apart. At least that’s the theory I’ve heard. Obviously debatable.
 
(coups and coup attempts)
Including oodles of them directed against various monarchs.
No. Not all monarchies. Constitutional ones like Great Britain now and the Netherlands and Denmark. Where the monarch’s power is significantly diminished.
True, but those monarchies are not much of a monarchy these days.
Absolute monarchies like Saudi Arabia are no different than other autocracies. They are repressive and have to be to maintain the status quo. But they are fundamentally unstable and likely to collapse violently eventually.
 
(coups and coup attempts)
Including oodles of them directed against various monarchs.
No. Not all monarchies. Constitutional ones like Great Britain now and the Netherlands and Denmark. Where the monarch’s power is significantly diminished.
True, but those monarchies are not much of a monarchy these days.
Absolute monarchies like Saudi Arabia are no different than other autocracies. They are repressive and have to be to maintain the status quo. But they are fundamentally unstable and likely to collapse violently eventually.
I am not sure that absolute monarchy (or any other form of autocracy) is fundamentally unstable; Such regimes are unstable if they have a significant non-elite pool of educated subjects, but where they have had an agrarian economy with a very small educated class, and/or where the educated class is a separate elite (such as a religious class), they can easily last for a very long time indeed. The medieval period in Europe had a lot of very stable autocratic monarchies. What little "instability" there was tended to manifest as difficulty in avoiding invasion by neighbouring autocratic monarchies.
 
Indeed the French Revolution was only the last of many revolts French monarchs dealt with.
You missed a couple.


Contemporary France is actually also known as the Fifth Republic.

The first one ended when Napoleon Bonaparte crowned himself as Emperor in 1804. This was followed by the first Bourbon restoration in 1814 with the crowning of Louis XVIII, the return of Napoleon, then a second restoration, which survived - at least as a monarchy - the 1830 revolution by becoming the Orleans monarchy until it was replaced by the Second Republic during the 1848 revolution. It was unpopular and did not last long. Its President, Louis-Napoléon Bonaparte, staged a coup d'état in 1851 and proclaimed himself Emperor Napoleon III. The Franco-Prussian (Franco-North German Confederation, to be pedantic) war put an end to his reign in 1870, leading to the Third Republic. Hitler nixed it in 1940 by installing the Vichy puppet government in the south of France and ruling the rest directly. The fourth Republic lasted from 1946 to 1958, but was so unstable (21 governments in its 12 years) that it was decided (by referendum) to adopt a new constitution, and with it the Fifth Republic.
 
I finally found some research on the rise and fall of monarchy.
Why Monarchy? The Rise and Demise of a Regime Type - John Gerring, Tore Wig, Wouter Veenendaal, Daniel Weitzel, Jan Teorell, Kyosuke Kikuta, 2021
Monarchy was the dominant form of rule in the pre-modern era and it persists in a handful of countries. We propose a unified theoretical explanation for its rise and decline. Specifically, we argue that monarchy offers an efficient solution to the primordial problem of order where societies are large and citizens isolated from each other and hence have difficulty coordinating. Its efficiency is challenged by other methods of leadership selection when communication costs decline, lowering barriers to citizen coordination. This explains its dominance in the pre-modern world and its subsequent demise. To test this theory, we produce an original dataset that codes monarchies and republics in Europe (back to 1100) and the world (back to 1700). With this dataset, we test a number of observable implications of the theory—centering on territory size, political stability, tenure in office, conflict, and the role of mass communications in the modern era.
With PDF Monarchy_43_full app & text_anon.pdf

First noting the great longevity of monarchy. I note that humanity has had some 5,000 years of recorded history, and the main form of government of anything larger than a city-state was monarchy. The main exception, the Roman Republic, ended up becoming the Roman Empire, a monarchy.

The surviving activist monarchies: (Middle East & North Africa) Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, (Europe) Liechtenstein, Monaco, (Sub-Saharan Africa) Swaziland, (South Asia) Bhutan, (Southeast Asia) Brunei, (Oceania) Tonga.

Outside of MENA, activist monarchies are very scattered. The two European ones are microstates, for instance.
 
Philosophically speaking, can it be proven someone has some right to rule over someone else if they don't want to be or does it in the end just come down to whether someone or some group can coerce another group into doing what they want?
 
There is a lot of work on what goes on in a monarchy. "Even so, there is no well-developed theory that might explain the rise and near-demise of monarchy." "But why did attitudes toward this ancient regime type change so profoundly over the past two centuries? Why did the bases of legitimacy shift? Distal factors are more elusive."

What made that change? Preferring merit to inheritance? Economic growth? No evident correlation. "Indeed, the monarchies that persist tend to be richer and more developed than republics in their respective regions." Does that include those with mostly-ceremonial monarques fainéants? (do-nothing monarchs)

The authors then coded polities in Europe for being a monarchy all the way back to 1000 and the rest of the world all the way back to 1700.

Their definition: "A monarchy, for present purposes, is a polity with an executive office that is (a) hereditary, (b) held by a single individual, (c) endowed with life tenure, and (d) of non-trivial importance in running the affairs of state."

The modern era they define as beginning with the French Revolution. The American Revolution might also do, but it started some 13 years earlier.

The authors propose some biological imperative for hereditary succession, of wanting to perpetuate oneself in one's children. Another theory I've seen is the "crown prince problem", where an appointed successor might get too impatient. A leader's children might be less likely to get impatient with succession.

I must say that hereditary succession is a form of nepotism, and nepotism is nowadays not considered a very good hiring practice.
 
"The question, then, is why monarchy may have provided an efficient solution to the problem of order in some periods but not in others"

"In any society, there will be many aspirants for the position of sovereign." Supporters of a winner may do much better than supporters of a loser.
We argue that a monarchical system of rule is best equipped to solve this coordination dilemma in disconnected societies, where obstacles to coordination are greatest. This explains its appeal in the premodern world, where most citizens were illiterate, spoke a babble of tongues, rarely encountered those outside their locality, and consequently had little sense of belonging to a larger community (Crone 1989). These features, in turn, were by-products of the diffuseness of human settlement, poor communications and transportation infrastructure, and languages that were unwritten or largely untaught. For these reasons, populations in premodern societies were not closely interconnected and the flow of information was glacial. In a disconnected society of this sort, monarchy offered a workable solution to society’s coordination problem.
However, "As societies became more interconnected other methods of leadership selection became more viable."

A monarch could provide "(a) political legitimacy, (b) orderly succession, (c) unity, (d) long time horizons, and (e) the ability to impose law and order."

The authors discuss alternatives in their Appendix A.

"Personal dictatorships were quite successful in conquering substantial swaths of territory. However, a dictator with no connection to a royal or divine family – a commoner, in other words – was not well-positioned to establish connections to traditional practices and belief-systems."

"Among institutionalized forms of rule we may distinguish between monarchy and corporate regimes, which might be further classified as democratic or oligarchic but were in either case generally centered on an assembly."
This sort of power was apt to seem prosaic (lacking in supernatural sanction) and ineffectual. No special legitimacy flows from this sort of power unless and until a direct connection between leaders and citizens can be established, an achievement that awaited modern systems of transport and communications (allowing leaders to communicate directly with citizens) and political parties (allowing interests to be effectively aggregated). Corporate forms of governance in the pre-modern era generally did not provide an efficient method for identifying and empowering an executive, one who could keep order and issue authoritative decisions. Nor could they solve the perennial problem of succession.
That's why premodern republics were mostly city-states, whether democratic or oligarchic ones. "When corporate forms of governance were successful their purview was generally limited to a small territory and to urban settings, where people lived close together and thus experienced a high level of connectedness, allowing coordination difficulties to be overcome."

Then "The Roman republic/empire appears to be the only sizeable polity that managed to maintain a non-
monarchical form of government over a long period of time."

The Roman Empire was close to these authors' definition of monarchy, except for emperors not having well-defined hereditary succession.

One could transmit information over long distances at the speed of light, by using signal fires and signal smoke and the like, but the bandwidth was typically less than a baud (1 bit/s).

The fastest one could travel on land was from riding a horse at full run, but horses get tired, and the only way to sustain such a speed over long distances was to use a horse relay system. A rider would ride his horse to a relay station, exchange his tired horse for a rested horse, then continue onwards.

"It is telling that in those rare occasions where parliaments managed to wrest partial control from monarchs, the writ of the monarch was still required to legitimate rule over subject peoples beyond the home turf of the parliament." - like in Britain.
 
Legitimacy? Monarchs would often be presented as very special people, with eminent ancestry, lots of royal bling, isolation from ordinary people, participation in a variety of rituals, and a close connection with whatever gods the religious establishment worships. A monarch can be a god, or a descendant of a god, or a provincial governor of a god.

Succession? Hereditary succession kept the number of claimants very small, often only one, and even if more than one, all in the same family, making disputes easier to resolve. Research into medieval European monarchies indicates that succession by a king's son is more stable than succession by a king's oldest brother.

Unity? "Although monarchs often ruled in consultation with others, and although their actual power might be constrained, the existence of a single locus of authority meant that it was easier to preserve unity in a fissiparous society." "By contrast, collective forms of government – centered on an assembly, committee, or open forum – were likely to serve as springboards to societal conflict." and having more than one leader is like having more than one captain of a ship: a bad thing.

Time horizons?
A core problem of governance is that of time-horizons, whereby leaders neglect policies that require short-term sacrifices and long-term investments. Monarchy provided a partial solution to this perennial problem by elongating the tenure of the ruler and institutionalizing power in the hands of a ruling house, which aspired to rule in perpetuity.

Law and Order? The authors quote “There was one thing that almost all medieval and early modern aristocrats feared more than tyranny; and that was anarchy.”
The imposition of a “king’s peace” meant that brigands, as well as more serious cases of civil conflict, would be suppressed, allowing for a degree of security for property and for trade to flourish throughout the realm.
 
The authors get to "The Demise of Monarchy". They point to increasing human population density and improved infrastructure, and schooling, and I agree with them that the most significant feature is mass communication.

Movable-type printing was the first, making possible mass-produced books and newspapers and magazines and pamphlets. Before that, it was necessary to copy books by hand, greatly limiting their reach.

But it could only travel as fast as a horse.

By the mid 19th cy., trains were fast enough to easily beat even the fastest horse.

Around then were electrical telegraphs, enabling communication at typically half the speed of light, though they were manually operated, limiting their bandwidth to around 1 baud.

Telephones went into service in the late 19th cy., radio into service in the early 20th cy., and broadcast TV into service in the mid 20th cy. They easily beat telegraphs in bandwidth, being able to transmit audio and video information in real time.

The Internet is a big network of computer networks, and it gradually emerged over the 1970's and 1980's, first as connections between universities, research laboratories, advanced-technology companies, and the like, and by the early 1990's, the broader population.

Cellphones emerged over that time also.
 
This made mass-mobilization politics possible. From the article, "Whether democratic or autocratic, representative or plebiscitarian, all contemporary systems of rule featured mass mobilization – via political parties, elections, referenda, public demonstrations, or other vehicles."

Very unlike "the age-old system of hereditary succession, which engaged citizens only as passive spectators and in which there was no (or very little) common identity as a people or nation, except that provided by the over-arching dignity and magnificence of the monarch."

"It generally worked to desacralize sitting monarchs, exposing their personal lives – and, inevitably, their foibles – to public
scrutiny. Observed up-close and personal, royals were revealed to be human, all too human." -- there is a solution: be extremely reclusive, appearing in public only for official events. But some royals seem to like being big celebrities.

The sort of charisma that makes for a strong media presence is not something that is likely to be transmitted down the generations in a royal line.
In an age of mass communications, monarchs could no longer claim an exclusive role in knitting together a diverse and far-flung empire. But they could plausibly claim to preserve the unique features and independence of a small and homogeneous people, those who share the monarch’s own ethnic, religious, or linguistic identity. Hence, in modern times we find monarchs emphasizing their representation of – rather than their differentiation from – society. In this vein, the Prince of Liechstenstein claims to represent the distinctive people of that micro-state.
 
What is monarchy? Over the centuries: "(a) rule by one (the classical sense, dating back to Aristotle), (b) absolute power, (c) grandeur, (d) hereditary succession, (e) divine right, and (f) aristocracy."

Monarchs have had oodles of titles: baron, basileus, caliph, czar, emir, emperor, huangdi, huey tlatoani, kaiser, khagan, khan, king, maharaja, malik, padishah, pasha, pharaoh, prince, raja, Sapa Inka, shah, shahanshah, sultan, tenno, tianzi, wang.

Then discussing in detail their criteria: rule of one, life tenure, heredity, and power.

Life tenure - if abdications and overthrows are not institutionalized.

Heredity - that can get complicated, but the authors decided on a monarch's successor coming from that monarch's family. Thus, early-modern (their premodern) Poland was not a true monarchy in their coding: its king was essentially a president for life. Neither is the Roman Empire, with its not having much hereditary succession.

They also say that North Korea does not satisfy that criterion, at least not yet, though I suspect that it does, with saying that leaders must come from the "Baektu bloodline".

Power - purely ceremonial monarchies like the UK's one they coded as republics. The authors conceded that it can be difficult to decide whether it is a monarch or an elected body which is the most dominant.
 
In their coding, there were more monarchies than republics in both Europe and the world until 1910, when republics start to outnumber monarchies.

Then considering various hypotheses. "Although coordination cannot be directly observed, suggestive evidence may be drawn from the histories of states employing varying regime types."

Monarchies controlled more territory than republics until the late 19th cy., when it became reversed.

Monarchies are less likely than republics to experience regime breakdowns over 1800 - 1920, and more likely over 1920 - 2006.

Monarchs typically last 16 years in office, while republic leaders typically last 5 years in office.

Premodern monarchies typically have less conflict than similar-sized premodern republics.

Mass communication they tested with relative numbers of radios in the polities' populations. Monarchies tend to have fewer radios than republics.

The authors conclude that their results confirm their hypothesis that monarchy is good for poor long-distance communications and not so good for good long-distance communications.
 
There was a similar thread 3 years ago. Here is a link to my post in that thread: https://iidb.org/threads/in-defense-of-monarchy.23320/post-871492

A constitutional monarch can add stability and integrity to government ... if the monarch is righteous. Holland and all the Scandinavian countries have monarchs and these are among the happiest, most stable, and best-governed countries on the planet. Didn't the King of Denmark play key roles during World War II, perhaps saving his country's Jews from deportation? I think heirs to such a throne are inculcated from an early age with virtues like honor and sacrifice.

IIUC, when the British Monarch addresses Parliament she is required to recite ONLY the speech prepared by Her Prime Minister. What about Europe's other monarchs?

What constraints on wealth and income are imposed on these monarchs? Are they allowed to manage their own stock portfolios? (While a few monarchs are billionaires, only a very few constitutional monarchs are multi-billionaires.)

I live in the Kingdom of Thailand which is classified as "constitutional monarchy." I was born during the reign of Rama IX -- He passed away in the 70th year of his reign shortly before my 67th birthday. Shirts bearing the sentence "I was born during the reign of Rama IX" were very popular some years ago. (Did anyone watch The King and I with Yul Brynner playing Rama IV? Yes, Rama V really did ascend the throne in his early teens, and yes he really did free the slaves.)

Although our King has limited formal power, the respect shown Rama IX led directly to resolution of the "Bloody May" crisis of 1992. His appearance on late-night TV left a very strong impression on me, which I will relate if there's significant interest.
 
Some more research: Why Has Monarchy Been So Successful? by Brian Singleton-Green :: SSRN with (PDF) Why Has Monarchy Been So Successful?
Abstract:
Hereditary monarchy was the dominant form of government until the modern era. In view of its obvious disadvantages, its success needs explaining. The primary explanation has four components. (1) In the pre-modern era, collective action problems made oligarchy and democracy difficult except in small states, and (2) small states have a competitive disadvantage in war against large states, so small republics tended to be eliminated by larger monarchies. (3) Oligarchies and democracies face a permanent risk of being captured by individuals who turn them into monarchies or dictatorships, and (4) dictatorships in any case tend to turn into monarchies. There are also secondary factors that help to explain monarchy’s success. In the pre-modern era it was often supported by powerful groups, notably by the aristocracy and the priesthood, for reasons of self-interest. It also had ideological support from prevailing beliefs regarding inheritance, hierarchy, and religion, and from demonstration effects. The proposed explanation of monarchy’s success in the pre-modern era is consistent with republicanism’s success in modern times and with the survival of a significant number of overt and covert monarchies in the 21st century.
BSG uses the sort of classification of the previous paper that I mentioned.
I adopt a simple classification of governments into four types: rule by one man (monarchy or dictatorship), rule by a few (oligarchy), and rule by the many (democracy). I distinguish monarchy from dictatorship by treating monarchy as rule by one man where there is a hereditary element in the succession.
BSG uses “where there is a hereditary element” to include choosing which member of a royal family is to be the successor, and also would-be successors fighting it out.

Unless otherwise indicated, I use these classifications to describe the real or substantive rather than nominal forms of government. For example, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is nominally a monarchy, but in reality a democratic republic, whereas the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, better known as North Korea, is nominally a republic, in reality a monarchy.

Heads of state that are not heads of government, such as the queen in the UK, still have important constitutional and symbolic functions, but they do not include ruling the country.
He uses "republic" broadly, to include dictatorships and oligarchies.

"In describing monarchy as successful I am using the word in a Darwinian sense. For most of history, most people who lived in states lived in monarchies; in this respect monarchy has been, until modern times, more successful than competing forms of government."

He describes small-scale societies.
  • "Small bands have activity leaders, that is, people who lead the group in a specific activity such as a hunt. This is the typical form of organization of hunter-gatherers." -- thus the sort of political organization that humanity has had for nearly all of its existence.
  • "A village may be led by a big-man. His authority is general, but persuasive rather than mandatory. He acquires his position through his character; it is not hereditary."
  • "Or a village may be led by a hereditary chief. As with the big-man, his authority is persuasive rather than mandatory ..."
  • "Tribal chiefs are hereditary. They hold the power to punish and coerce."
  • "Kings are hereditary rulers. Their role is similar to that of tribal chiefs, but more extensive; tribal chiefs are their subordinates."
"In summary, while as we have seen there is some evidence from ancient Mesopotamia and India of states that initially formed as republics, where it is possible to form a judgment the historical and archaeological record suggests that emerging states have usually been monarchies from the outset. And even the states that may have started as republics turned into monarchies."
 
He defines modernity as the present of recent technologies for mass communication, roughly 19th cy. and later for Europe and some European offshoots, and roughly 20th cy. for the rest of the world.

Premodern republics were almost all city-states. The ones with the best surviving documentation are the Mediterranean ones of 2,500 years ago and after a gap of some 2,000 years, the late-medieval Italian and German ones. BSG is unable to find any premodern large republics that were not city-states that kept their form of government as they built empires. Like Rome and Venice.

The Dutch Republic and Switzerland were loose confederations of city-states, and the Dutch Republic's stadholder became a de facto monarch.

Then discussing the collective-action problem. The more people the more difficult it is to agree on what to do.

But it's easier for people in cities to meet each other and to organize than people in rural areas. Thus, republican city-states and effectively republican cities in larger monarchies, though the latter seems to be mostly a European tradition. There is not much evidence of urban self-government in premodern China, for instance.
 
BSG then discusses the fall of the Roman Republic.
The republic’s stability depended on maintaining both the esprit de corps of the ruling elite and a harmonious relationship between that elite and the mass of the citizenry. As in other republics, the elite’s great fear was the emergence of monarchy, so it adopted the classic republican formulae of dividing power among a number of offices and limiting the terms for which those offices could be held, usually to one year.
As the Republic grew from its conquests, its size caused problems for it.
  • Generals who went on long campaigns wanted to stay in office more than one year, and often did.
  • The army changed from a part-time citizen one to a professional one.
  • Senerals would lose contact with Roman oligarchs.
Ambitious generals would get followings and fight each other, generals like Sulla and Marius and Julius Caesar and Pompey and Mark Antony and Augustus Caesar, and they eventually ended the Republic, making it the Empire. The Empire was essentially a monarchy, even if it lacked a well-established system of hereditary succession in its first few centuries.


Then discussing constraints on monarchs, like from assemblies of citizens or nobles. Such assemblies could not do much before recent centuries, however, because they did not meet very often, and it was impractical for them to do so.

"Magna Carta, the Great Charter that King John (1199-1216) accepted in 1215, is the most famous expression of the limits of royal power in relation to citizens generally, but more importantly and in greater detail in relation to his nobles." Also, "An important aspect of kingship in medieval England (and in medieval Europe generally) was managing the nobility."
 
Then discussing how small polities were often conquered by larger ones, and since the larger ones were almost always monarchies, this was monarchies growing at the expense of republics.

"I have suggested that by the time a society emerges into statehood it is usually a monarchy. Yet a number of premodern states at some point rejected monarchy and became oligarchies or, rarely, democracies."

We have no record of that in Greece or in most other ancient republics, and while we have accounts of that for Rome, it is hard to tell fact from fiction in those ones. We have better documentation for medieval European republics: towns asserting their independence from rulers of the areas that they are in.

Oligarchs often feared that one of their number would take over, making himself a dictator, and eventually a monarch. In ancient Rome they kept anyone from having a lot of power, and some medieval Italian city-states appointed leaders from outside. "Oligarchies also rely on a strong sense of corporate solidarity, apparent in both the Roman and Venetian Republics, so that turning the state into a monarchy is held to be abhorrent."

But being the top leader is an irresistible attraction for some people. Rome became a monarchy, and many medieval Italian city-state republics also did so. I add the Dutch Republic.

Once someone takes over, then what? A dictator will worry about rivals who might want to do to him what he did to his predecessors. The people he trusts the most will be his family, so he may appoint family members to various positions. His family members may worry about what will happen to them under a successor who is not one of them, so they may want a successor who is one of them.

Thus, a lot of dictators have wanted to be succeeded by their sons, thus creating new dynasties.
 
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