Are US cities about to enter a long period of decline?

[RVonse]

The race riots of the 1960s were extremely damaging for US cities, as did the surging crime in the decades that followed. People and capital fled to the suburbs.

Over the last three decades, that trend reversed, with more people moving into the cities proper and investment followed - i.e. gentrification, something #BLM hates.
But this trend is subject to lower crime rates and residents of cities feeling safe. When you have increasing race riots every time a black criminal gets popped by police, when city officials side with criminals and throw police officers under the bus (like Keisha Lance Bottoms did in Atlanta), when extremists can take over parts of cities like Seattle and Atlanta and the city officials twiddle their thumbs for days, when city councils vote to abolish their police departments (Minneapolis) or defund them, often to the tune of over a billion dollars (NYC, LA), when homeless are allowed to defecate in the streets (San Francisco) then the residents who can afford to get out of dodge will do just that.

Will the cities be able to avoid the mistakes of the 60s and 70s? Or will they double down on stupid?

Note, that cities now also face the threat of the COVID19. Cities, especially dense ones like NYC, are hard hit because of population density. And if companies decide to expand working form home long term, that could spell trouble for urban cores long term, in addition to the rioting and the stupidity of city officials.

P.S.: I think the Bernie Goetz incident exemplifies the pre-Giuliani NYC well. A regular guy, gets mugged, police do almost nothing. He gets an illegal gun. Several lowlifes tried to mug him again on the subway, he shoots them all. Gets acquitted of everything but the gun charge, but a civil jury hands down a ridiculously insane judgment because of the muggers got seriously injured (play stupid games win stupid prizes, people should not get to sue their victims when the victims defend themselves!)

While I believe your logic is sound, the reality is that no one is really moving out or going to move out. Because if they were, the property values would be declining and they aren't. You simply can not argue with supply and demand economics.

So the only explanation I can give for this is that people in general are stupid sheep who love to live in violence and shit. It is the same typical stupid moron sheep who were probably responsible for buying up the toilet paper during the beginning of the pandemic. Even though the virus had nothing to do with pooping! Those are the same moronic sheep who thrive in the cities and pay 3-4 times more for the pleasure to live in all their filth and violence. They obviously like to walk through shit and not have any police.

 

[TV and credit cards]

The race riots of the 1960s were extremely damaging for US cities, as did the surging crime in the decades that followed. People and capital fled to the suburbs.

Over the last three decades, that trend reversed, with more people moving into the cities proper and investment followed - i.e. gentrification, something #BLM hates.
But this trend is subject to lower crime rates and residents of cities feeling safe. When you have increasing race riots every time a black criminal gets popped by police, when city officials side with criminals and throw police officers under the bus (like Keisha Lance Bottoms did in Atlanta), when extremists can take over parts of cities like Seattle and Atlanta and the city officials twiddle their thumbs for days, when city councils vote to abolish their police departments (Minneapolis) or defund them, often to the tune of over a billion dollars (NYC, LA), when homeless are allowed to defecate in the streets (San Francisco) then the residents who can afford to get out of dodge will do just that.

Will the cities be able to avoid the mistakes of the 60s and 70s? Or will they double down on stupid?

Note, that cities now also face the threat of the COVID19. Cities, especially dense ones like NYC, are hard hit because of population density. And if companies decide to expand working form home long term, that could spell trouble for urban cores long term, in addition to the rioting and the stupidity of city officials.

P.S.: I think the Bernie Goetz incident exemplifies the pre-Giuliani NYC well. A regular guy, gets mugged, police do almost nothing. He gets an illegal gun. Several lowlifes tried to mug him again on the subway, he shoots them all. Gets acquitted of everything but the gun charge, but a civil jury hands down a ridiculously insane judgment because of the muggers got seriously injured (play stupid games win stupid prizes, people should not get to sue their victims when the victims defend themselves!)

While I believe your logic is sound, the reality is that no one is really moving out or going to move out. Because if they were, the property values would be declining and they aren't. You simply can not argue with supply and demand economics.

So the only explanation I can give for this is that people in general are stupid sheep who love to live in violence and shit. It is the same typical stupid moron sheep who were probably responsible for buying up the toilet paper during the beginning of the pandemic. Even though the virus had nothing to do with pooping! Those are the same moronic sheep who thrive in the cities and pay 3-4 times more for the pleasure to live in all their filth and violence. They obviously like to walk through shit and not have any police.

Shit? You mean like having to decide whether to go to Applebee's or Olive Garden? I'm not a city person but I can understand the attraction. To be surrounded by so much cultural diversity. I envy them.

And your "property values" comment is a bit premature. We'll have to wait and see if the work from home thing sticks or even grows long term. It has already affected San Fran to a point.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/san-francisco-one-bedroom-rent-price-drops-11point8percent-in-june-zumper.html?&qsearchterm=san%20francisco%20rent

 

[Politesse]

"San Fran"? Them's fighting words, m'friend.

 

[Politesse]

So the only explanation I can give for this is that people in general are stupid sheep who love to live in violence and shit.

Or they sympathize more with the oppressed than their oppressors, and indeed feel more safe in the company of those who are willing to fight for the American principles of revolution and self-determination than they do under the uncontested rule of race-fascists. You may be imagining, if you get your news exclusively from the right-wing media, that these protests are exclusively the work of angry Black men, but that isn't so, and these aren't "race riots". Tulsa was a race riot. These are anti-racism demonstrations, to which everyone is invited, and they only scare people with guilty consciences.

As for shit, I grew up in cattle country and can assure you with absolute certainty that New York is not the only place one can go to accidentally step in the stuff.

 

[steve_bank]

Some places ar growing like Seattle, but the growth is sitting on a lot of low paying jobs. Transportation I a major issue here.

There s a grooming drug an homeless problem, and housing is becoming unaffordable for a growling segment of the population.

Usinnnng Trump metrics Seattle is great, people at the top making a lot of money. There are six construction cranes visible from our roof top. For many Seattle is declining.

 

[DBT]

Some places ar growing like Seattle, but the growth is sitting on a lot of low paying jobs. Transportation I a major issue here.

There s a grooming drug an homeless problem, and housing is becoming unaffordable for a growling segment of the population.

Usinnnng Trump metrics Seattle is great, people at the top making a lot of money. There are six construction cranes visible from our roof top. For many Seattle is declining.

So where in a city with high cost housing, rent, etc, are the low paid workers living? Ten to a flat?

 

[Horatio Parker]

 Lead-crime hypothesis



When we stopped poisoning kids' developing brains in the 60s and 70s, they stopped growing up to be violent adults in the 80s and 90s.

Took the words right out of my mouth...'cept 'course that goes against Armageddon, so must therefore be yet another liberal delusion.

Interestingly, I read a lead crime advocate claim that many of the recent Floyd George like incidents involve men in their forties who could've suffered from lead exposure. Not a justification, but an explanation.

The main reason for this appears to be that a disproportionate share of police killings come from disturbance calls, domestic and non-domestic about equally represented. A majority of the killings arising from disturbance calls are of people aged forty or more.

[...]A likely explanation for this is that in 2015, when this data was collected, 20-year-olds were born around 1995 and grew up lead free. This means they were far less likely to act out violently than in the past. Conversely, 40-year-olds were born around 1975, right near the peak of the lead poisoning epidemic. They are part of the most violent, explosive generation in US history.

This is the saddest part of lead poisoning: it scars your brain development as a child and there’s no cure. If you’re affected by it and are more aggressive and violent as a result, you will be that way for the rest of your life.

https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/07/lead-poisoning-and-domestic-violence/

 

[Toni]

 Lead-crime hypothesis



When we stopped poisoning kids' developing brains in the 60s and 70s, they stopped growing up to be violent adults in the 80s and 90s.

Took the words right out of my mouth...'cept 'course that goes against Armageddon, so must therefore be yet another liberal delusion.

Interestingly, I read a lead crime advocate claim that many of the recent Floyd George like incidents involve men in their forties who could've suffered from lead exposure. Not a justification, but an explanation.

The main reason for this appears to be that a disproportionate share of police killings come from disturbance calls, domestic and non-domestic about equally represented. A majority of the killings arising from disturbance calls are of people aged forty or more.

[...]A likely explanation for this is that in 2015, when this data was collected, 20-year-olds were born around 1995 and grew up lead free. This means they were far less likely to act out violently than in the past. Conversely, 40-year-olds were born around 1975, right near the peak of the lead poisoning epidemic. They are part of the most violent, explosive generation in US history.

This is the saddest part of lead poisoning: it scars your brain development as a child and there’s no cure. If you’re affected by it and are more aggressive and violent as a result, you will be that way for the rest of your life.

https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/07/lead-poisoning-and-domestic-violence/

The other thing is re: domestic incidents of individuals in their forties: A lot of those individuals have had a couple of decades or more of substance abuse under their belts. Which may in some cases be related to lead exposure but maybe not......This happens a lot in rural areas, as well, not just crowded cities with a lot of traffic and motor vehicle exhaust.

 

[steve_bank]

Some places ar growing like Seattle, but the growth is sitting on a lot of low paying jobs. Transportation I a major issue here.

There s a grooming drug an homeless problem, and housing is becoming unaffordable for a growling segment of the population.

Usinnnng Trump metrics Seattle is great, people at the top making a lot of money. There are six construction cranes visible from our roof top. For many Seattle is declining.

So where in a city with high cost housing, rent, etc, are the low paid workers living? Ten to a flat?

Increasing working homeless. Choosing between food, healthcare, or rent. Two parents working multiple jobs.

You must not be paying attention to current events.

The stock market and GDP do not represent the actual state of the economy as people live it. Contrary to Trump's claim the economy was the best ever pre shutdown, the majority of people were not doing all that great.

 

[Alcoholic Actuary]

A lot of cities have been in a long period of decline, if not for the reasons you mention. But I see no signs that the healthy cities are about to go under. People are as eager to move into the great urban centers of the West as they ever were.

I have seen my own city, Atlanta, improve many neighborhoods since the Olympics (1996). Many young professionals moved into the city proper. There certainly was no decline - quite the opposite.

And Atlanta was spared the rioting in the 2014-2016 First #BLM wave of violent riots it really looked like the city was living up to its motto as the "city too busy to hate". But now, KLB has taken the side of the rioters and against her own police, and racist armed thugs had taken over the area around that burnt our Wendy's. I doubt the upward trajectory for Atlanta will continue under KLB's leadership.
View attachment 28442

Looks like a 2nd Amendment activist exercising his rights. Unless you see something different.

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[Derec]

Looks like a 2nd Amendment activist exercising his rights. Unless you see something different.

Yes. Occupying private property (Wendy's lot) and blocking a public thoroughfare (University Ave.), not letting any white people through, is not covered by the 2nd Amendment.

It is amazing that people defend these racists just because they are black.

 

[Derec]

Some places ar growing like Seattle, but the growth is sitting on a lot of low paying jobs. Transportation I a major issue here.

There s a grooming drug an homeless problem, and housing is becoming unaffordable for a growling segment of the population.

Usinnnng Trump metrics Seattle is great, people at the top making a lot of money. There are six construction cranes visible from our roof top. For many Seattle is declining.

But at least the occupied Capitol Hill has been liberated. You may rejoice at that. For now at least.

 

[Trausti]

Well, at least we may see an end of gentrification.

 

[laughing dog]

So what you're really saying is that you are afraid of Black people.

No, I am afraid of racist^* black people armed with semi-automatic rifles taking over a neighborhood. And that's a very rational fear.

No, it is not rational, but it is human to make such mistakes. Maybe now you have an inkling why some blacks feel the same way when they are stopped by the police.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

The Lead Paint hypothesis explains the same thing as the Freakonomics explanation of greater access to abortion.

 

[SimpleDon]

Looks like a 2nd Amendment activist exercising his rights. Unless you see something different.

Yes. Occupying private property (Wendy's lot) and blocking a public thoroughfare (University Ave.), not letting any white people through, is not covered by the 2nd Amendment.

It is amazing that people defend these racists just because they are black.

So you believe that blacks don't have any legitimate grievance against the police?

That blacks should expect and even welcome to be shot and killed much more often than whites because they are genetically predisposed to crime and poverty?

That only white males have legitimate grievances against the current state of affairs because medical schools and private universities discriminate against them in admissions?

 

[repoman]

Looks like a 2nd Amendment activist exercising his rights. Unless you see something different.

Yes. Occupying private property (Wendy's lot) and blocking a public thoroughfare (University Ave.), not letting any white people through, is not covered by the 2nd Amendment.

It is amazing that people defend these racists just because they are black.

So you believe that blacks don't have any legitimate grievance against the police?

That blacks should expect and even welcome to be shot and killed much more often than whites because they are genetically predisposed to crime and poverty?

That only white males have legitimate grievances against the current state of affairs because medical schools and private universities discriminate against them in admissions?

Well Jewish whites are still keeping well ahead in admissions, throwing gentile whites and asians overboard and you know it SimpleDon

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The Lead Paint hypothesis explains the same thing as the Freakonomics explanation of greater access to abortion.

That is Leaded gasoline.

The lead is still in the paint.

The question, though, is why does crime increase in the same period of time in rural areas, and decrease in the same period of time..

 

[Horatio Parker]

The Lead Paint hypothesis explains the same thing as the Freakonomics explanation of greater access to abortion.

That is Leaded gasoline.

The lead is still in the paint.

The question, though, is why does crime increase in the same period of time in rural areas, and decrease in the same period of time..

Isn't that supposed to happen?

I've read that areas, states I assume, banned leaded at different. And those differences are reflected in the crime rates.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

I accept the correction of leaded gas versus lead paint. The same phenomenon is still also addressed by the hypothesis put forward in "Freakonomics" of greater access to abortion.

I am reserving judgement on that pending further evidence, but Jimmy has provided one piece of evidence that should be accounted for.

While not all states banned leaded gas at the same time, they did so within a close period of time to each other. Meanwhile, rural areas are renown for having less access to reproductive and prophylactic medicinal services.