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Australia - Liberal Party And Morrison Out

Cheerful Charlie said:
Scott Morrison is out. Labor is in. There's of the Teals. What does it all mean? A spot of sanity on planet Earth?
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What a strange statement. Are you of the opinion that countries cycle in and out of sanity, depending on which political party is in power? Australia has had stretches of LNP rule and stretches of Labor rule for the last 100 years. The number of independents for the lower house is certainly a surprise, but I don't think that will be sustained permanently.
 
Here is my take on the election result:

The teal independents are what the misnamed Liberal Party should have been. Beginning with John Howard, small-l liberals have been progressively sidelined and encouraged to retire from politics. The process has been continuous ever since (except for a brief pause when Malcolm Turnbull managed to get his foot in the door).

Now the chickens have come home to roost at last. A substantial number of voters who regard themselves as liberals in the classic sense have finally woken up to the fact that the Liberal Party is anything but liberal, and voted accordingly. This is why the share of the popular vote dropped by 6.1 percentage points for the so called Liberals while Labor experienced only a half point reduction.

Albanese will not have an easy task getting cooperation from the teals. He is basically dealing with the left wing of the Liberal Party. On the bright side he may not need them. Election analyst Antony Green thinks Labor may finish up with ten of the 14 undecided seats. That would make for a majority of six seats.

In other good news Clive Palmer got nowhere and it looks like Pauline Hanson might not make the cut for another term in the Senate.

So, yes, good news, but the improvement is not exactly earth-shattering.
 
Cheerful Charlie said:
It looks like enough Australians have decided the LIBERALS and Morrison are part of the problem and not the solution. Reads like a turn to sanity to me.
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Keep in mind the Liberal Party is misnamed. When Robert Menzies, Prime Minister from 1939 to 1941, and again from 1949 to 1966, founded it in 1944, it should have been named the Conservative Party. Slightly right of centre to begin with, it has drifted further to the right ever since, a trend that accelerated under John Howard's leadership (1995 - 2007) and, except for a brief pause when Malcolm Turnbull had his hand on its tiller, kept going in that direction ever since.
 
Patooka said:
Cheerful Charlie said:
Reads like a turn to sanity to me.
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Dutton is going to be the new leader of the Liberals. Strap the fuck in as Murdoch and Channel Nine paint him as some underdog hero in the next couple of years.
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Dutton is a pair of jackboots short of being Benito Mussolini. Underdog he is not. Hero, only to people who consider mindless authoritarianism to be heroic.

The QPS aren’t exactly known for their liberalism, and in his day were barely more than the most powerful and well equipped criminal gang in the state.
 
Patooka said:
Cheerful Charlie said:
Reads like a turn to sanity to me.
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Dutton is going to be the new leader of the Liberals. Strap the fuck in as Murdoch and Channel Nine paint him as some underdog hero in the next couple of years.
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With their previous hero, Josh Frydenberg, having unexpectedly lost his seat

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that is a dead certainty.
 
I for one am looking forward to the resurrection of Boat People Hysteria again.
 
It seems angry women, voting Teal ousted The Liberals. If Murdoch tries to attack them and Labor unmercifully, could that backfire and simply enrage Teal women voters? Is the Teal movement a short lived phenomenon or start of something truly politicaly disruptive?
 
Cheerful Charlie said:
It seems angry women, voting Teal ousted The Liberals. If Murdoch tries to attack them and Labor unmercifully, could that backfire and simply enrage Teal women voters? Is the Teal movement a short lived phenomenon or start of something truly politicaly disruptive?
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Voting 'Teal' did not oust the liberals. Even if every electorate won by a 'teal' had instead been retained by the LNP, they'd still not have a majority.

Nor are there any statistics from what I've seen that women who had previously voted LNP were more likely than men who had previously voted LNP to have switched their votes to 'teal' candidates.
 
The anomaly of the Australian voting where a majority of votes is not needed to get a majority in the House of representatives to form government.
 
Tigers! said:
The anomaly of the Australian voting where a majority of votes is not needed to get a majority in the House of representatives to form government.
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Surely that is true of any system that has electorates?
 
Cheerful Charlie said:
It seems angry women, voting Teal ousted The Liberals.
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At least in New South Wales, I wouldn't be so confident saying Teal votes are an outright rejection of Liberals. The outcomes there appear to be a growing extension between "Wet" and "Dry" conservatives dividing in NSW.

Cheerful Charlie said:
If Murdoch tries to attack them and Labor unmercifully, could that backfire and simply enrage Teal women voters?
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Yes, if done incorrectly. When Julia Gillard was Prime Minister, radio host Alan Jones (think the worst parts of Rush Limbaugh and Shaun Hannity and add a secretive "bachelor lifestyle"), mention Gillard's father died of shame for being such a shit PM. It did not go down well. So if you want to put shit on a woman, use another woman to do it. It's my prediction Murdoch "journalists" like Miranda Devine, Janet Albrechtsen and Peta Credlin will be slamming Teal candidates day and night in columns and talk shows in the near future.

Cheerful Charlie said:
Is the Teal movement a short lived phenomenon or start of something truly politicaly disruptive?
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A little bit of both. A lot of people were concerned when the Palmer United Party won seats in 2013. It kinda fizzled into obscurity since then thank fuck. One thing that is interesting about this particular election is how a couple of the teal candidates have received campaign advice from another former independent, Cathy McGowan. I suspect a lot will be determined if Labor can form a government outright.
 
Yes.
It is always necessary to remember that fact and note the swings and roundabouts. One time it is your candidate, next time it is not. So many complain that when their non-favoured fails to get up.
Many have expressed the view that Libs were somehow illegitimate because they only got about 37% of the 1st preference vote in 2019. Those same people will not be found when it is noted that Labour will only get about 34% of 1st preferences in 2022. Does that mean that Labour in 2022 is somehow illegitimate? Of course it does not.
 
Patooka said:
Cheerful Charlie said:
It's my prediction Murdoch "journalists" like Miranda Devine, Janet Albrechtsen and Peta Credlin will be slamming Teal candidates day and night in columns and talk shows in the near future.
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As is their right. Unless you think that the 'Teals' should somehow be beyond criticism (or slamming as you call it)?

 
Tigers! said:
As is their right. Unless you think that the 'Teals' should somehow be beyond criticism (or slamming as you call it)?
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Not what I said, and it is certainly not what Devine, Credlin etc will be doing.
 
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