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Bernie Can't Win

Louisiana's perennial governor, Edwin Edwards was once running against the incumbent Governor Buddy Romer. When asked whether he was going to beat Romer, Edwards said, "The only way I can lose this election is to be caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

For a Republican to win this election, both Hillary and Bernie will have to be in that same bed together.
 
The GOP will go hard and constant against Sanders' atheism and Socialism, so its relevant and greatly reduces his chances to get the swing votes required.
there are no "swing votes", that is a collective delusion held by the political establishment, so it's also irrelevant.

Sanders has faced nothing remotely close to the propaganda campaign that will be launched against him if he gets the nomination, and they have facts against him that matter to those swing voters.
"swing voters" if they even exist (which i doubt) are a tiny, tiny minority of the electorate and are utter irrelevant to the outcome of an election.

and what "facts" do they have exactly?
'omg, hey, listen! people who agree with raising taxes and implementing collectively beneficial social programs! bernie sanders is gonna raise taxes and implement collectively beneficial social programs! BOOGITY FUCKING BOOGA!"

Sanders will get damaged in the general and his only chance will be if the GOP nominee can be damaged more by the Dem strategy.
damaged by what exactly?

The GOP is evil but smart and win far more offices than they reasonably should because their propaganda strategy is consistently more effective.
i disagree on the logistics of this - they win far more offices than they reasonably should because most citizens of the US are functionally retarded.

There is only one plausible reason why the GOP is going harder after Hillary than Sanders now and in the past few months. It is because their best research tells them that they can beat Sanders much more easily in the general, so they want him to win.
no, it's because their best research tells them that attacking that uppity bitch who thinks she deserves to be president will get their based more fired up (and thus more likely to vote) than attacking the guy from Curb from your Enthusiasm.

the facts about the candidates don't matter when it comes to the election, so it's really all totally irrelevant.
take the voting public (i mean the people who actually go and vote) - across the country it's 45% democrats, 45% republicans, and 10% morons who vote for the Green or Libertarian party or whatever the hell those jackasses do.
elections are decided by which percentage of the 45% bothers to show up to vote... thus, elections in the US are based around nothing more than which part feels generally more aggrieved and motivated to bother going outside.
swing votes do not exist, independents do not exist, elections are not won or lost based on the policies or histories of the candidates - winning an election just comes down to being attractive to your party's base, and not fucking up so badly that you become unattractive to your party's base or energize the opposite's base against you.
 
I've heard some of the comments in the OP quite a bit as of late. The most common ones are 1) Bernie is too pie-in-the-sky. He has big dreams, but he'll never get them past congress. 2)The Republicans will hammer the whole "Socialist" thing until Trump strolls victoriously into the White House.

Personally, I'm more afraid of number 2. Obama said Trump will never be President because Americans are sensible people. I used to think that until Dubbya was voted in for a second term. I would like to think people will be able to parse the difference. If, interest is high I think Bernie will do better. I think he would destroy any current Republican in debates. (So would Hillary though.) If Trump is the nominee, I think EVERYONE will be watching that first Dem vs. Rep debate.

As to number 1, I think this is a dumb point. The Republicans probably hate Hillary only slightly less than Obama. If the congressional makeup stays the same, so will the obstructionism. I see no edge she'll have in getting things done over Sanders.

People, mostly Clinton supporters, keep talking about being "Realistic". How long shall we be realistic? When will change ever come? We are Americans, we're supposed to be "can do". Instead "can do" appears to belong to Scandinavia, as they are able to put in reforms we can only dream of.

Yeah, all that. Some of my voting decision rests on who I think has the best chance of producing a coattail effect - and I think that's Bernie. So I'm going to caucus instead of partying on my birthday, March 1. Damn politicians!

- - - Updated - - -

Hey, wait a minute. . . . That doesn't mean anyone is wrong! Some of the best ideas in the world come to people when their stoned!

SLD


I've had fantastic ideas when I was stoned. I just can't remember them when I sober up. :(

You weren't that stoned if you remember that you had great ideas... :p
 
Socialism.jpg

Saw this on Facebook just now. I suspect this is the kind of shit that we can expect if Sanders wins. will this fire up the Repub base? Or will the thought of Hillary? Inquiring minds want to know.

SLD
 
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary


  • Hillary Clinton - 48.2%
  • Bernie Sanders - 40.5%
Sanders has a way to go, but the Huffington Post poll chart demonstrates Sanders is steadily rising in the polls, while HRC is dropping. All it takes now is a change of 3.5% from HRC to BS to pull even.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-sanders


  • Bernie Sanders - 48.3%
  • Donald Trump - 42.1%
Bernie beats Trump but not by a huge margin. But again the charts show Trumps numbers drooping while Sanders steadily is gaining




Bernie Sanders trivia for the day.
Bernie Sanders does not have a middle name.
 
there are no "swing votes", that is a collective delusion held by the political establishment, so it's also irrelevant.

...

The reason there are no wing voters is the GOP has moved so far to the right, the swing is too far away for them reach. The traditional swing voter was once the person who had no real interest in politics, except when an election is coming soon. They don't spend a lot of time reading about candidates positions or reading their speeches. They make their decision on fairly pragmatic grounds, usually the visual impression the candidate makes, is the candidate an eloquent speaker, etc. They usually shy away from extremists and nutcases.

Swing voters are the target of negative campaigning. They are more likely to be turned off by a candidate, than overwhelmed by the opponent. Unfortunately for professional campaign managers, negative campaign ads have lost a lot of clout. So many have been exposed as misleading or bogus, almost no one believes them. In 2015, it's too easy to google any attack ad and have it debunked, or find something worse about the guy whose campaign it supports. Does anybody really thing a vote will be swayed by a facebook meme?

Maybe Puppymonkeybaby will endorse Trump.

The swing voters are mostly in the Democratic camp. They want to keep abortion available, they are worried about guns in schools, and they don't want another 20 years of war. The GOP has nothing to offer.
 
I remember just a few years back, all the Democrat candidates, including Obama, were questioning if Hillary was electable. She really may not be. She isn't likely to pull over republicans who have been trained for decades to hate her, and she won't pull over any more independents as Bernie will. Bernie seems far more electable to me, especially against Trump. Hillary is very unlikely to beat Trump, given their history, his self funded campaign, and her taking billions from wall street.
 
It would certainly be more entertaining to watch Sanders campaign than Hillary. Maybe Hillary is more electable than Sanders, but keep in mind that John Kerry was more electable than Howard Dean and Mitt Romney was more electable than Rick Santorum. If you're going to fail anyway, you might as well fail spectacularly.
 
I'd like to point out that with approval voting, you can always support your favorite candidate without being penalized for it. IRV has the same problems as the primaries. Fringe unelectable candidates could eliminate electable candidates in the early rounds because of the vote splitting.
 
I believe Sanders is more electable. He does better then Hillary with millennials and independents, both voting blocks the democratic party needs in November. Voter turnout will be higher for Sanders then Clinton. He polls better against the Republican candidates.

I don't believe for a second charges of socialism or atheism or other fear based attacks will work. The rise of social media and the internet has made such tactics less effective since it's simple for so many voters to confirm the facts for themselves and not rely on corporate media. Even those that don't use the internet often have family members that do and will hear about the truth from them. If they tried to swift-boat John Kerry today their attacks would fail miserably.

Finally, Sanders is just more likable then Clinton. Look at a graph of their favorable ratings - Sanders only goes up, while Clinton's only goes down. See the graph below for a current comparison to past candidates.

Favorability.png

Yeah, I think Sanders is more electable.

If it's Trump vs. Clinton, Trump will attack her on corruption, of being in the pocket of Wall Street, of voting for the Iraq war, and unlike Sanders there would be some truth in those charges. I believe he's already preparing to face her, look how often he brought up being opposed to the Iraq war in the last Republican debate.
 
This poll suggests Sanders is equal/more competitive against most Republicans than Clinton.

• Clinton loses by 2 points to Trump (43%-45%), 1 point to Cruz (44%-45%), 6 points to Rubio (42%-48%) and 11 points to Kasich (38%-49%).

• Sanders loses by 1 point to Trump (43%-44%), 3 points to Kasich (41%-44%) and 4 points to Rubio (42%-46%) — each of them a slightly stronger showing than Clinton — and he leads Cruz by 2 points (44%-42%).

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ay-suffolk-poll-whos-more-electable/80452560/

On an unrelated note, it also must be complete crap since it shows the Republicans ahead in almost all combinations.

Sanders biggest problem will be overcoming the Democrats.
 
This poll suggests Sanders is equal/more competitive against most Republicans than Clinton.

• Clinton loses by 2 points to Trump (43%-45%), 1 point to Cruz (44%-45%), 6 points to Rubio (42%-48%) and 11 points to Kasich (38%-49%).

• Sanders loses by 1 point to Trump (43%-44%), 3 points to Kasich (41%-44%) and 4 points to Rubio (42%-46%) — each of them a slightly stronger showing than Clinton — and he leads Cruz by 2 points (44%-42%).

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ay-suffolk-poll-whos-more-electable/80452560/

On an unrelated note, it also must be complete crap since it shows the Republicans ahead in almost all combinations.

Sanders biggest problem will be overcoming the Democrats.
The poll shows Clinton losing by 11 pts to Kasich, but only 1 to Cruz? But Kasich isn't in the top three in their own poll. And Sanders is losing only 3 pts to Kasich, implying independent support for Sanders (more so than Clinton)? While I can appreciate (though not understand) the Dems being behind the Republicans, the numbers are odd.
 
This poll suggests Sanders is equal/more competitive against most Republicans than Clinton.



http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ay-suffolk-poll-whos-more-electable/80452560/

On an unrelated note, it also must be complete crap since it shows the Republicans ahead in almost all combinations.

Sanders biggest problem will be overcoming the Democrats.
The poll shows Clinton losing by 11 pts to Kasich, but only 1 to Cruz? But Kasich isn't in the top three in their own poll. And Sanders is losing only 3 pts to Kasich, implying independent support for Sanders (more so than Clinton)? While I can appreciate (though not understand) the Dems being behind the Republicans, the numbers are odd.

As a distant candidate Kasich has yet to get the full on republican candidate media treatment.

We don't even know if he's going to be stupid or be evil yet.
 
The poll shows Clinton losing by 11 pts to Kasich, but only 1 to Cruz? But Kasich isn't in the top three in their own poll. And Sanders is losing only 3 pts to Kasich, implying independent support for Sanders (more so than Clinton)? While I can appreciate (though not understand) the Dems being behind the Republicans, the numbers are odd.

As a distant candidate Kasich has yet to get the full on republican candidate media treatment.
But that is the trouble. While he has a boatload of experience, he doesn't have much layman name recognition, so I have trouble believing that Kasich is polling better than Trump or Cruz by such a large margin.

We don't even know if he's going to be stupid or be evil yet.
He's going to be an establishment candidate who comes across as rather level and "moderate". A fiscal conservative, though not radically so (see Kansas), but he isn't exactly the most solvent, often using one time windfalls to help fund tax cuts. Though, he didn't sell out the Turnpike, unlike Indiana, to his credit. He is what I call a stealth conservative. He is more conservative than he lets on, but he isn't a radical.

He currently has two problems. Firstly, he is long-time establishment and he doesn't come across as an asshole, which is a strength of Trump and Cruz and loses votes to the Tea Party. Also his Ohio Admin forging Charter School testing results and the state losing Fed funding for Charter Schools.
 
This poll suggests Sanders is equal/more competitive against most Republicans than Clinton.

• Clinton loses by 2 points to Trump (43%-45%), 1 point to Cruz (44%-45%), 6 points to Rubio (42%-48%) and 11 points to Kasich (38%-49%).

• Sanders loses by 1 point to Trump (43%-44%), 3 points to Kasich (41%-44%) and 4 points to Rubio (42%-46%) — each of them a slightly stronger showing than Clinton — and he leads Cruz by 2 points (44%-42%).

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ay-suffolk-poll-whos-more-electable/80452560/

On an unrelated note, it also must be complete crap since it shows the Republicans ahead in almost all combinations.

Sanders biggest problem will be overcoming the Democrats.

Pre nomination polls about hypothetical matchups are meaningless. Sanders has not faced any real scrutiny, Hillary cannot go after him in any concerted way while trying to win over those he appeals to. Hillary has already faced more scrutiny than Sanders and all the Republicans combined. During the general, they would all face more and lose more ground than Hillary would. And anyone who thinks that being an Atheist, Jew, Socialist does not matter any more to American voters isn't paying attention to the data and hanging out with too many kids in their 20s who aren't going to show up in November.
 
Pre nomination polls about hypothetical matchups are meaningless. Sanders has not faced any real scrutiny, Hillary cannot go after him in any concerted way while trying to win over those he appeals to. Hillary has already faced more scrutiny than Sanders and all the Republicans combined. During the general, they would all face more and lose more ground than Hillary would. And anyone who thinks that being an Atheist, Jew, Socialist does not matter any more to American voters isn't paying attention to the data and hanging out with too many kids in their 20s who aren't going to show up in November.

Sanders is also not going after Hillary as hard as he could (for example on the "damn emails"). This idea that she "has faced more scrutiny that Sanders and all Republicans combined" is yet another piece of Hillary-hyperbole like "smartest woman in America" or "most qualified candidate ever".

And I'd rather have an atheist Jew in the Oval Office than a member of the Fellowship. Even if he calls himself a socialist (without actually being one).
 
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