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California May Have a Random Celebrity Republican as Governor Soon

[TWEET]<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The map on the left is the recall results. The one on the right is the current COVID situation. <a href="https://t.co/5An0GV13hg">pic.twitter.com/5An0GV13hg</a></p>— Eric Ball (@DrEricBall) <a href="https://twitter.com/DrEricBall/status/1438150971721273351?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 15, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>[/TWEET]..
What's Inyo County's secret?

Maybe low density.
 
Here's how I estimated how much of the remaining uncounted vote needs to be "Yes" to make a recall.

fi - initial "No" fraction
ft - target "No" fraction
fc - fraction of votes counted
fa - fraction in uncounted votes that must be "No"

fa = (ft - fc*fi) / (1 - fc)

The recall threshold is 50%.

I redid my earlier calculations and added the latest numbers.

64-36 at 70%
50-50: 17-83 _ 58-42: 44-56

63.8-36.2 at 74%
50-50: 10.7-89.3 _ 58-42: 41.5-58.5

63.9-36.1 at 76%
50-50: 6.0-94.0 _ 58-42: 39.3-60.7

63.8-36.2 at 77%
50-50: 3.8-96.2 _ 58-42: 38.6-61.4

63.7-36.3 at 78%
50-50: 1.4-98.6 _ 58-42: 37.8-62.2

63.6-36.4 at 82%
50-50: (not possible) _ 58-42: 32.5-67.5

63.5-36.5 at 85%
50-50: (not possible) _ 58-42: 26.8-73.2

(not possible) - the "no" number is negative.
 
[TWEET]<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The map on the left is the recall results. The one on the right is the current COVID situation. <a href="https://t.co/5An0GV13hg">pic.twitter.com/5An0GV13hg</a></p>— Eric Ball (@DrEricBall) <a href="https://twitter.com/DrEricBall/status/1438150971721273351?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 15, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>[/TWEET]..
What's Inyo County's secret?

Maybe low density.
Some people rise to social distancing, others have it thrust upon them, willy-nilly.
 
This shows what a bullet California dodged in the recent recall election.

Who is Larry Elder? The Republican's Political Stances - The New York Times
He has long been an uncompromising right-winger.
Undocumented immigrants? Deport them. Affirmative action? End it. Equal pay? The glass ceiling doesn’t exist.

...
Mr. Newsom, whose fate rides on turnout, has made a foil of Mr. Elder, a “small-l libertarian” who reliably agitates the governor’s base with claims, for instance, that the minimum wage should be zero, the “war on oil” should be ended and racial preferences are destructive.

“The leading candidate thinks climate change is a hoax, believes we need more offshore oil drilling, more fracking, does not believe a woman has the right to choose, actually came out against Roe v. Wade, does not believe in a minimum wage,” Mr. Newsom has told supporters.

“Don’t paint me as some wild-eyed radical,” Mr. Elder said in a recent interview. “I’m running because of crime, homelessness, the rising cost of living and the outrageous decisions made during Covid that shut down the state.”

...
Mr. Elder’s political positions speak loudly and clearly to the state’s small but vocal strain of far-right conservatism. He supports school vouchers and prioritizes jobs over environmental and climate considerations. He opposes abortion. He is vaccinated against the coronavirus because of a rare blood condition but opposes vaccine and mask “mandates.”

...
But establishment Republicans such as Mr. Faulconer say he is more suited to provocation than to governing.

While other candidates disclosed their income taxes, Mr. Elder supplied partial returns and then successfully challenged the state requirement, keeping his private.

After incomplete conflict-of-interest disclosures — now being investigated by state campaign finance regulators — were amended, they showed that Mr. Elder is being paid by The Epoch Times, a purveyor of political misinformation and far-right conspiracy theories.

He has refused to debate other Republicans and bashed the news media when challenged. He has told left-leaning editorial boards that President Biden fairly won in 2020 and conservative radio interviewers that he did not.

He has recanted assertions made in 2008 that climate change is “a crock” but, in an interview, offered $10,000 to charity for proof he had ever said that and falsely claimed that “nobody really knows to what degree” humans caused climate change. He has written that Democrats do better with female voters because, according to academic research, “women know less than men about political issues.”
Most recently, he has said that it was slaveowners who deserved reparations. That makes me wonder what he would have been like as a slave. Would he have enjoyed snitching on the other slaves?

His father was also violently abusive, Mr. Elder wrote in 2018, driving him to leave home the moment he graduated from Crenshaw High School. Admitted to Brown University under an early affirmative action program, Mr. Elder, the second of three sons, stayed away from California for years, moving on to the University of Michigan Law School and becoming a lawyer and legal recruiter in Ohio.
That might explain this:
This month, The Sacramento Bee and two Republican candidates — Kevin Faulconer, the former San Diego mayor, and Caitlyn Jenner, the television personality and former Olympian — demanded that Mr. Elder drop out of the race after an ex-girlfriend of his said he brandished a gun at her while high on marijuana during a 2015 breakup.

“We were having a conversation and he walked to the drawer and took out a .45 and checked to see that it was loaded,” Alexandra Datig, 51, said in an interview. Ms. Datig, who worked as an escort in the 1990s and now runs Front Page Index, a conservative website, said: “He wanted me to know he was ready to be very threatening to me. He’s a talented entertainer, but he shouldn’t be governor.”

Mr. Elder, 69, did not respond to requests for comment about Ms. Datig’s claims, but he did tweet that he has “never brandished a gun at anyone,” adding, “I am not going to dignify this with a response.”

...
She used her connections to help Mr. Elder get a Hollywood Walk of Fame star, she said, and tattooed “Larry’s Girl” across her lower back.

But as the relationship deteriorated, she said, he threatened eviction. A legal agreement shows she left for $13,000 in relocation money, $7,000 for tattoo removal and a Cadillac.
 
California's recall process is flawed. One has two votes in it, one for whether or not to recall the governor, and one for whomever will replace the governor if he/she is recalled. That means that the next governor can get only a small fraction of the total votes.

In light of Newsom election, CA recall process needs reform | The Sacramento Bee
"There’s much that’s disturbing about this recall. It’s not based on any complaints of misconduct in office by Gov. Gavin Newsom, but seems instead to be a calculated effort by Republicans — a minority in the state — to take over the governorship through a back door."

‘Some Serious Problems’ With California Recall Laws, Secretary Of State Says - capradio.org
CA Sec'y of State Shirley Weber. "Specifically, she questioned the signature threshold for forcing a recall, a lack of limits on when a recall can be held, and the possibility that a replacement candidate could win elected office with less than a majority of the vote."

Low threshold: 12% of the previous election's total vote. Why not 20% or 25%? KS has 40%.

"Weber suggested a committee or commission to review the entire recall process. She made clear she isn’t calling for any immediate or specific changes, but she feels some of the recall rules deserve a second look."

What’s Wrong with the Recall? - Public Policy Institute of California

Opinion | There Is a Problem With California’s Recall. It’s Unconstitutional. - The New York Times
 
[TWEET]<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The map on the left is the recall results. The one on the right is the current COVID situation. <a href="https://t.co/5An0GV13hg">pic.twitter.com/5An0GV13hg</a></p>— Eric Ball (@DrEricBall) <a href="https://twitter.com/DrEricBall/status/1438150971721273351?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 15, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>[/TWEET]..

Like many such maps, this one emphasizes area rather than population, and is therefore misleading.

The 23 smallest California counties added together have a smaller population than ANY of the ten largest counties.
 
[TWEET]<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The map on the left is the recall results. The one on the right is the current COVID situation. <a href="https://t.co/5An0GV13hg">pic.twitter.com/5An0GV13hg</a></p>— Eric Ball (@DrEricBall) <a href="https://twitter.com/DrEricBall/status/1438150971721273351?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 15, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>[/TWEET]..
What's Inyo County's secret?

Maybe low density.

I don't know how big Inyo county is, but I know it includes Death Valley. That's a lot of nothing.
 
If providing of uncontested evidence isn't proof, what is?

Given your education, I'm surprised you would ask a question like that.

If you need education about social media bubbles, or the difference between evidence and proof, ask around. I'm not going to try and do that in an internet post.
Tom

If you're asking me as a scientist, I would say that "proof" does not exist except as a social ideal. In rhetoric though, there is no higher standard imaginable than "meaningful evidence is presented, and is not contradicted by any evidence of an alternative or critique of the evidence itself." How more well-established can a claim really be, in the context of a forum conversation?

Can't the hierarchy of legal standards be adapted? In increasing order of uncertainty:
  • Beyond a reasonable doubt
  • Clear and convincing evidence
  • Preponderance of the evidence
  • Substantial evidence
  • Probable cause
  • Reasonable suspicion
 
[TWEET]<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The map on the left is the recall results. The one on the right is the current COVID situation. <a href="https://t.co/5An0GV13hg">pic.twitter.com/5An0GV13hg</a></p>— Eric Ball (@DrEricBall) <a href="https://twitter.com/DrEricBall/status/1438150971721273351?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 15, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>[/TWEET]..

Like many such maps, this one emphasizes area rather than population, and is therefore misleading.

The 23 smallest California counties added together have a smaller population than ANY of the ten largest counties.

Agreed. I do wish it included population.
 
It seems California isn't ready for a black governor.

That is the only thing about Elder that would have made his win in any way palatable, speaking for myself at least.

But breaking down a single racial barrier is not worth the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people, disproportionately citizens of color.

Hundreds of thousands of people?

[citation needed]
 
It seems California isn't ready for a black governor.

That is the only thing about Elder that would have made his win in any way palatable, speaking for myself at least.

But breaking down a single racial barrier is not worth the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people, disproportionately citizens of color.

Hundreds of thousands of people?

[citation needed]

__________________________________
o Biden, no KKK, no Fascist USA

The word "know" has one silent k.
The word "knuckle" has two silent k's.
The word "Democrat" has three silent k's.

Asking for a citation shows remarkable lack of self-awareness for someone with a signature like that!
(For starters, where's the 2nd silent K in knuckle? :) )
 
[TWEET]<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The map on the left is the recall results. The one on the right is the current COVID situation. <a href="https://t.co/5An0GV13hg">pic.twitter.com/5An0GV13hg</a></p>— Eric Ball (@DrEricBall) <a href="https://twitter.com/DrEricBall/status/1438150971721273351?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 15, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>[/TWEET]..

Like many such maps, this one emphasizes area rather than population, and is therefore misleading.

The 23 smallest California counties added together have a smaller population than ANY of the ten largest counties.

If I were to make a meaningful map about COVID infections it would not be about population or population density.

It would be about the percentage of the population infected.

If the right map is about percentage of the population infected then it is very meaningful since we already know the highest population density is along or close to the coast.
 
It seems California isn't ready for a black governor.

That is the only thing about Elder that would have made his win in any way palatable, speaking for myself at least.

But breaking down a single racial barrier is not worth the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people, disproportionately citizens of color.

Hundreds of thousands of people?

[citation needed]

Politesse might have exaggerated a small bit. But maybe not.

If a state with a population as big as California adopted policies similar to those in Mississippi, which is basically what Larry Elder(R) was proposing, the death toll could be huge.
Tom
 
It seems California isn't ready for a black governor.

That is the only thing about Elder that would have made his win in any way palatable, speaking for myself at least.

But breaking down a single racial barrier is not worth the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people, disproportionately citizens of color.

Hundreds of thousands of people?

[citation needed]

Can't cite a might-have-been, thank god. But if we were to have a COVID toll equivalent to that of other states that have banned pandemic PPE, the numbers would quickly climb to that level. Ours is a populous and in some regions very densely packed state. We've lost 68,000 people to the disease even with protective measures.
 
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