Can we know who won on Election Night? The answer might surprise you!

[Jimmy Higgins]

The answer is explicitly MAYBE! This website was kind enough to put all of processing and tabulating rules in a table.

I ran the numbers, okay, not many numbers, but I went through stuff. Below is a list. A yuge list, it is a list people are talking about! And why are people talking about it? These are generally the battleground states that will decide the election. I have included a column for when mail-in ballots can be processed and when they can be counted in days.

[TABLE="width: 294"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Process[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Counting[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Ohio[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-30[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-30[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Florida[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-22[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-22[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Colorado[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-60[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]North Carolina[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-35[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-14[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Iowa[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Michigan[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Nevada[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-60[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Pennsylvania[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Wisconsin[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Minnesota[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-7[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]New Hampshire[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

You'll notice, two of the biggest battlegrounds are up top, meaning it is feasible that Ohio and Florida can provide a winner on election night. Colorado and North Carolina are as well. The vote totals wouldn't be complete, but if the margin of victory was large enough, for Biden, we could know Biden won the election, almost simply with Florida and Ohio alone. Now, if Trump wins Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina, then the butts tighten up and we wait for Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota...(sadly those states start almost from scratch on Election Day) as well as Virginia, New Hampshire, and Nevada.

So, what does this mean? It means the US's sanity isn't riding solely on Florida not fucking up their vote count. If Ohio comes in solidly for Biden by 3 to 5 pts, then the election is effectively over. Of course, pre-counting ballots provides an avenue for lawyers to get involved with leaks of the results. If Trump's lawyers start targeting Florida or Ohio in mid to late October, we'll know why.

So here's to Ohio coming through in a good margin of victory for Biden so we can start preparations for burning 2020 out at sea.

 

[bilby]

This modern obsession with calling the result as quickly as possible is a major part of the problem.

You can have a quick result, OR an accurate result. And pursuit of the former plays right into the hands of anyone who wants to obfuscate the facts so as to drag the decision out of the hands of the people, and into a packed Supreme Court.

Americans really don't like democracy; It gets in the way of the entertainment. Democracy is boring, and an early result (even if it's wrong) is far more fun.

 

[TV and credit cards]

An apparent winner on election night or as soonest thereafter is what I am hoping for. Whatever dashes any plans for Trump dickery with the mail in ballots.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

This modern obsession with calling the result as quickly as possible is a major part of the problem.

You know, maybe if the election cycle didn't last 12 fucking months, we wouldn't be so desperate to be done with it! *breath Jimmy Higgins, breath*

No fuck it! It lasts to fucking long!!! Do you have any idea how hard it is to endure an election cycle this long?! No! Why? Because you live in a country that doesn't have it's number one GDP economic driver as Elections. So you don't need an election that lasts longer than pregnancy or a Hollywood marriage. So you can have elections that don't turn your brain into goo.

You can have a quick result, OR an accurate result.

Can have both, if the margin is large enough to allow for a lot of error.

And pursuit of the former plays right into the hands of anyone who wants to obfuscate the facts so as to drag the decision out of the hands of the people, and into a packed Supreme Court.

Americans really don't like democracy; It gets in the way of the entertainment. Democracy is boring, and an early result (even if it's wrong) is far more fun.

You don't get it. The biggest risk to American democracy right now is an election where Trump is leading in the early in person returns, but with slim margins and as mail-in ballots are counted, most states start counting the day of the election, the lead begins to lessen. He'll take that to the court to try and throw out ballots everywhere because of "equal protection" (that shit worked in 2000). But if we just have Florida or Ohio show Biden won that state, the crooked path to re-election should (I stresss should) be gone. And if Trump lost Ohio and Florida, we order a large meat grinder. So Ohio or Florida can count early and presumably have returns in faster than the other states because they could COULD count them early. We just need one of them to have a decisive... oh turns out the polls didn't have a surprise and Biden won Florida by 5 pts.

Of course, nothing is normal with Trump. SCOTUS could just rule an edict and declare Trump the winner.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

The answer is explicitly MAYBE! This website was kind enough to put all of processing and tabulating rules in a table.

I ran the numbers, okay, not many numbers, but I went through stuff. Below is a list. A yuge list, it is a list people are talking about! And why are people talking about it? These are generally the battleground states that will decide the election. I have included a column for when mail-in ballots can be processed and when they can be counted in days.

[TABLE="width: 294"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Process[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Counting[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Ohio[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-30[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-30[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Florida[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-22[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-22[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Colorado[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-60[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]North Carolina[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-35[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-14[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Iowa[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Michigan[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Nevada[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-60[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Pennsylvania[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Wisconsin[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Minnesota[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-7[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]New Hampshire[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

You'll notice, two of the biggest battlegrounds are up top, meaning it is feasible that Ohio and Florida can provide a winner on election night. Colorado and North Carolina are as well. The vote totals wouldn't be complete, but if the margin of victory was large enough, for Biden, we could know Biden won the election, almost simply with Florida and Ohio alone. Now, if Trump wins Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina, then the butts tighten up and we wait for Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota...(sadly those states start almost from scratch on Election Day) as well as Virginia, New Hampshire, and Nevada.

So, what does this mean? It means the US's sanity isn't riding solely on Florida not fucking up their vote count. If Ohio comes in solidly for Biden by 3 to 5 pts, then the election is effectively over. Of course, pre-counting ballots provides an avenue for lawyers to get involved with leaks of the results. If Trump's lawyers start targeting Florida or Ohio in mid to late October, we'll know why.

So here's to Ohio coming through in a good margin of victory for Biden so we can start preparations for burning 2020 out at sea.

Bloomberg is targeting Florida for Biden. Trump is furious. Trump is low on money and has to waste that on shoring up Iowa, Texas, and Arizona. 538 has Biden up in Florida by 3.9%.

 

[southernhybrid]

I doubt we will know the winner on election night, but it's very possible that it will be Biden who is in the lead on election night. For example, Georgia has already received almost 300,000 mail in ballots and Georgia counts them as they are received. Democrats are voting by mail at a much higher percentage than Republicans, and afaik, there are only a few states that don't start counting mail in ballots until Election Day. Is that the point being made in the OP?

I've been thinking about this for the last few days myself. Most of my friends have either sent in their ballots or will be voting next week in person. Hopefully, most people will have already voted by the time Nov. 3rd is here.

 

[ZiprHead]

The Republicans in Michigan had the kindness to our election workers of allowing them to start processing one shift earlier than the end of the election day.

They're such nice people.

 

[ideologyhunter]

And of course Melania needs to know in a timely fashion. She's playing a new round of Marry/Fuck/Kill with Pence, Jared, and the Donald, and she's down to two options.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I doubt we will know the winner on election night, but it's very possible that it will be Biden who is in the lead on election night. For example, Georgia has already received almost 300,000 mail in ballots and Georgia counts them as they are received.

My understanding is that they process them as received. Counting starts at 7 AM on election day. So still, that info could be in, but Georgia, if it went Biden would be way too tight that night. Florida or Ohio can hopefully give us a hint at whether there is a blip in the polls again like in '16, or whether Biden is thoroughly kicking Trump's ass.

Democrats are voting by mail at a much higher percentage than Republicans, and afaik, there are only a few states that don't start counting mail in ballots until Election Day. Is that the point being made in the OP?

Most states don't start counting until Election Day. Some states, not until closing of the polls. Here they all are. First column are when ballots are processed. Second column is when they can be counted. There might be some errors as some states don't exactly have restrictions on these things. I think CT, it is up to the registrar, another state, VA is based on how long it'd take to be able to have results in time. For counting, 0 is either at polling opening or around Noon, 0.5 is typically polls have closed.

[TABLE="width: 227"]
[TR]
[TD]Hawaii[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-60[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-60[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Utah[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-60[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-60[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Connecticut[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-30[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-30[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kansas[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-30[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-30[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ohio[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-30[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-30[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Florida[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-22[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-22[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Colorado[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-60[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Arizona[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-14[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-14[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]North Carolina[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-35[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-14[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Louisiana[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Oregon[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Delaware[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Montana[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nebraska[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Oklahoma[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vermont[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Arkansas[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]California[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-19[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Georgia[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-60[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Indiana[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Iowa[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Massachusetts[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-60[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Michigan[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Missouri[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nevada[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-60[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]New Jersey[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-60[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pennsylvania[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]South Carolina[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tennessee[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-60[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Texas[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-60[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]West Virginia[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Wisconsin[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Wyoming[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alabama[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alaska[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]District of Columbia[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Idaho[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-60[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Illinois[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-60[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Maine[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Minnesota[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mississippi[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]New Hampshire[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]New Mexico[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-60[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]New York[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]North Dakota[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rhode Island[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-14[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]South Dakota[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Virginia[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-30[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Washington[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-60[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Maryland[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kentucky[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[Patooka]

I can tell you who's gonna win on election night. Same people every election - the fucking lawyers.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Judge rules against GOP demand for having Clark County Nevada regarding counting of ballots.

 

[Terrell]

You know, maybe if the election cycle didn't last 12 fucking months, we wouldn't be so desperate to be done with it! *breath Jimmy Higgins, breath*

No fuck it! It lasts to fucking long!!! Do you have any idea how hard it is to endure an election cycle this long?! No! Why? Because you live in a country that doesn't have it's number one GDP economic driver as Elections. So you don't need an election that lasts longer than pregnancy or a Hollywood marriage. So you can have elections that don't turn your brain into goo.

Can have both, if the margin is large enough to allow for a lot of error.

And pursuit of the former plays right into the hands of anyone who wants to obfuscate the facts so as to drag the decision out of the hands of the people, and into a packed Supreme Court.

Americans really don't like democracy; It gets in the way of the entertainment. Democracy is boring, and an early result (even if it's wrong) is far more fun.

You don't get it. The biggest risk to American democracy right now is an election where Trump is leading in the early in person returns, but with slim margins and as mail-in ballots are counted, most states start counting the day of the election, the lead begins to lessen. He'll take that to the court to try and throw out ballots everywhere because of "equal protection" (that shit worked in 2000). But if we just have Florida or Ohio show Biden won that state, the crooked path to re-election should (I stresss should) be gone. And if Trump lost Ohio and Florida, we order a large meat grinder. So Ohio or Florida can count early and presumably have returns in faster than the other states because they could COULD count them early. We just need one of them to have a decisive... oh turns out the polls didn't have a surprise and Biden won Florida by 5 pts.

Of course, nothing is normal with Trump. SCOTUS could just rule an edict and declare Trump the winner.

I think this is pretty much correct. Some of the swing states can decide it outright if the winner is clear on election night but that's not guaranteed. I do think that OH or FL for Biden sends Trump packing on election night. PA likely wins it for Trump, especially if combined either MI or WI. There are probably scenarios that make it go on longer than necessary if a must-have state, for either side pulls a Florida.

As to the length of the election cycle, as far as political ads & attention go it varies by location, even within the same state. You're going to get far more ads in Orlando (Orange County), Tampa (Hillsborough County), and nearby locations than you're going to get if you live in or near Jacksonville (Duval County), Tallahassee (Leon County), or Ft. Lauderdale (Broward County).

 

[Elixir]

Judge rules against GOP demand for having Clark County Nevada regarding counting of ballots.

Is any judge ever going to impose a penalty on the GOP for their frivolous litigation?

 

[Shadowy Man]

Judge rules against GOP demand for having Clark County Nevada regarding counting of ballots.

If you read this decision, and the one by the federal judge in the Texas drive through voting case, you’ll see that having a general concern about votes being fraudulent doesn’t give standing to sue.

This makes me think that Trump may not have standing to sue *until* he actually loses. And he doesn’t actually lose until all the votes are counted. So, he may want to sue right away but if he hasn’t demonstrated actual harm then he won’t have standing.

 

[Keith&Co.]

Judge rules against GOP demand for having Clark County Nevada regarding counting of ballots.

If you read this decision, and the one by the federal judge in the Texas drive through voting case, you’ll see that having a general concern about votes being fraudulent doesn’t give standing to sue.

This makes me think that Trump may not have standing to sue *until* he actually loses. And he doesn’t actually lose until all the votes are counted. So, he may want to sue right away but if he hasn’t demonstrated actual harm then he won’t have standing.

He's had people filming ballot boxes. If one person from a household drops off ballots from four, five people, he'll claim realio-trulio evidence of fraudulent voting.
Also, if they won't let his stormtroopers observe the counting, he'll claim fraud.
I'll bet th e federal judge forcing USPS inspectors to round up 'missed' ballots in the post offices somehoe indicates fraud. Judges voting from the bench or some such....

 

[Jarhyn]

Judge rules against GOP demand for having Clark County Nevada regarding counting of ballots.

If you read this decision, and the one by the federal judge in the Texas drive through voting case, you’ll see that having a general concern about votes being fraudulent doesn’t give standing to sue.

This makes me think that Trump may not have standing to sue *until* he actually loses. And he doesn’t actually lose until all the votes are counted. So, he may want to sue right away but if he hasn’t demonstrated actual harm then he won’t have standing.

He's had people filming ballot boxes. If one person from a household drops off ballots from four, five people, he'll claim realio-trulio evidence of fraudulent voting.
Also, if they won't let his stormtroopers observe the counting, he'll claim fraud.
I'll bet th e federal judge forcing USPS inspectors to round up 'missed' ballots in the post offices somehoe indicates fraud. Judges voting from the bench or some such....

Yeah, despite the fact that every one of those ballots is uniquely associated with a registered voters, and if they aren't, that's a felony for whoever double-dipped.

Anyone feel like doing an over/under on how many republicans attempt to vote multiple times this year? I'm betting we hit or even exceed double digits.

Though the one story any news org will run with is the one inevitable single digit number of clear accidents that somehow indicates widespread fraud that will be immediately punished and used as leverage to sue over mail in ballots being counted at all.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Judge rules against GOP demand for having Clark County Nevada regarding counting of ballots.

If you read this decision, and the one by the federal judge in the Texas drive through voting case, you’ll see that having a general concern about votes being fraudulent doesn’t give standing to sue.

This makes me think that Trump may not have standing to sue *until* he actually loses. And he doesn’t actually lose until all the votes are counted. So, he may want to sue right away but if he hasn’t demonstrated actual harm then he won’t have standing.

He's had people filming ballot boxes. If one person from a household drops off ballots from four, five people, he'll claim realio-trulio evidence of fraudulent voting.
Also, if they won't let his stormtroopers observe the counting, he'll claim fraud.
I'll bet th e federal judge forcing USPS inspectors to round up 'missed' ballots in the post offices somehoe indicates fraud. Judges voting from the bench or some such....

Don't both parties get to send observers to the ballot counting?