Angra Mainyu
Veteran Member
I saw it in several different media outlets, some clearly biased towards Catholicism - which does not make their reporting likely false per se -, but some that did not appear to be so. Let me search for that again.bilby said:From where do you derive your claim that "the previous jury was very probably (no official record, but very probably) 10-2 in favor of acquitting"?
Let us say so. That increases the probability that he is guilty. Nevertheless, given the sort of evidence the jury used to convict, it is improbable that it was beyond a reasonable doubt on the basis of the information available to them. Moreover, the case made by the defense attorney - before he came up with the absurd 'vanilla' defense - strongly supports innocence. Additionally, the other alleged victim not only did not come forward, but probably denied having been abused by Pell, until his death.bilby said:The only information we have is that the first jury did not reach a verdict. We have no information on whether the majority were for acquittal or for conviction, or whether they were equally split.
I base my assessment on reported leaks. But I will re-check that, because even though I found several sources, perhaps they're tainted by the first one. Let me take a look.bilby said:Under Australian law, it is a very serious offence for any juror to reveal the details of jury deliberations, so I am not sure how you could possibly assign any probability to any possible distribution of opinions in the first jury. It's information that is very deliberately kept out of the public domain.
By the way, why do you think they did not reach a verdict, if there was conclusive evidence?