Climate Change(d)?

[steve_bank]

The lowering Danube has uncovered a number of German warships scuttled in WWII. Loaded with explosives.

The issue s with floods in the SW is the hard dry ground from drought does not absorb water.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Meanwhile in... the press and science...

In some isolated cases, the rainfall would qualify as a 1-in-1,000 interval flood. The downpour marked the latest such flood that has occurred over the past few weeks across the United States. In one week alone, three 1-in-1,000-year rain events occurred — inundating St. Louis, eastern Kentucky and southeastern Illinois. While controversial, the term is used to describe a rainfall event that is expected once in every 1,000 years, meaning it has just a 0.1 percent chance of happening in any given year.

*sigh*
Okay folks, here we go.

1) There is rainfall and there are floods. The two are linked, as rains cause flooding, but they are not proportional or equatable terms. If memory serves, the Michigan dam that gave way, that was a record flood, but not a record rain storm. How? Saturated ground allowed for less precip to absorb. Oddly enough, dry ground has the same property, though for a different reason. Soil doesn't have a static permeability value until fulling saturated. Soil needs water in it to help water flow through it. And this is ignoring horizontal verses vertical permeability... which we'll go into in the next Ted Talk.

2) There is nothing "controversial" about percent exceedance of events. This is all statistically based. The potential problem is that what was a 0.1% chance of exceedance event 40 years ago, might not be the same today. And these numbers are important. We can design cities and residential areas to be flood proof.... if we spend way too much money. 1% exceedance events are often looked at for engineering because design costs can become exceedingly high for larger events. 0.1% events are often used for huge water projects that could lead to substantial loss of property of life if it is overrun.

3) Other stuff causes flooding, primarily impervious surfaces like pavements and roofs. Sprawl leads to reduced areas for stormwater to absorb into the ground. Though, this is a bigger issue for smaller creeks, streams, and runs. In order to flood a city, you need inundation of rain.

So, in summary, are these clusters of floods evidence of climate change? Or not? Or don't know?

Climate change related events are taken in aggregate over time. Five 0.1% events in the US in five weeks does raise eyebrows.

 

[Swammerdami]

The world's rivers are drying up in drought and heat. Here's how 6 look from space - CNN

A painful lack of rain and relentless heat waves are drying up rivers in the US, Europe, Asia and the Middle East. Many are shrinking in length and breadth. Patches of riverbed poking out above the water are a common sight. Some rivers are so desiccated, they have become virtually impassable.

The human-caused climate crisis is fueling extreme weather across the globe, which isn't just impacting rivers, but also the people who rely on them. Most people on the planet depend on rivers in some way, whether for drinking water, to irrigate food, for energy or to ship goods.

Colorado River (SW US, NW Mexico), Yangtze River (S China), Rhine River (W Germany), Po River (N Italy), Loire River (France), Danube River (E Europe)

The Mekong River is in severe jeopardy. India's Ganges and California's Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers are also at troublesome low levels.

And the Jordan River — of Biblical importance! — is in the news:

The river and its tributaries have been chronically overdrawn.
...
Experts say Jordan is now in the grip of one of the most severe droughts in its history, but many warn the worst is yet to come. Ahmad Daoud surveyed his shrivelled tomato plants near the Dead Sea in Jordan, where severe drought in what is already one of the world's most water-deficient countries is hitting hard.

Reading about this famous River reminded me of the famous song by Barry McGuire warning about climate change:
(I'd link to a YouTube, but the lyrics all seem to have been replaced with some sort of anti-War dirge.)

Earth's sweet climate, it isn't thrivin'​

Heat waves flarin', storms are arrivin'​

We're smart enough for TikTok, but not survivin'​

You don't believe in Q-foo, but what's that truck you're drivin'​

And even the Jordan River's no longer providin'​

But you tell me over and over and over again, my friend​

Ah, you don't believe we're on the eve of destruction​

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The lowering Danube has uncovered a number of German warships scuttled in WWII. Loaded with explosives.

The issue s with floods in the SW is the hard dry ground from drought does not absorb water.

What is this "ground" of which you speak?

(Typical terrain around here is either loose rock or basically natural cobblestone. Occasionally you find sandy areas--which if natural represent an area of water flow.)

 

[fromderinside]

The lowering Danube has uncovered a number of German warships scuttled in WWII. Loaded with explosives.

The issue s with floods in the SW is the hard dry ground from drought does not absorb water.

What is this "ground" of which you speak?

(Typical terrain around here is either loose rock or basically natural cobblestone. Occasionally you find sandy areas--which if natural represent an area of water flow.)

Think about it. If what you experience includes loose rock/cobblestone that evolved over time and water erosion. Doesn't it make sense that what was there first was just solid rock and evidence of erosion or ground.

 

[steve_bank]

The lowering Danube has uncovered a number of German warships scuttled in WWII. Loaded with explosives.

The issue s with floods in the SW is the hard dry ground from drought does not absorb water.

What is this "ground" of which you speak?

(Typical terrain around here is either loose rock or basically natural cobblestone. Occasionally you find sandy areas--which if natural represent an area of water flow.)

The town of Bedroock?

 

[TSwizzle]

More madness from the cultists;

Eco-protesters have blocked service stations and vandalised pumps on the M25 this morning, infuriating motorists at the height of rush-hour on the UK's busiest motorway. Protesters have been arrested as they attempt to force the government to act now on fossil fuels by damaging petrol pumps so that 'no fuel is available'. Around 32 activists from Just Stop Oil have blocked Clacket Lane, Cobham and Thurrock services, and also claim to have disrupted petrol and diesel supplies from local depots since yesterday. The depots affected included Navigator, Grays and Kingsbury. Three petrol stations remain completely closed, both the eastbound and westbound sites at Clacket Lane in Surrey, and Thurrock in Essex. Fuel is available from some pumps at Cobham services, which are now fully reopen, but some remain unusable due to damage.

Daily Mail

It really is a religion;

An assistant police chief has called the bluff of eco-warriors who tunnelled beneath an oil refinery then complained about the road being reopened to traffic by suggesting they are 'welcome to come out at any time'. After Just Stop Oil activists dug two tunnels underneath entrances to the Navigator oil terminal at Saint Clements Way and Stoneness Road in Essex, they warned the decision to partially reopen the roads was dangerous and could 'risk their collapse'. Essex Police assistant chief constable Glen Pavelin rejected the idea, saying it was up to the protestors to remove themselves from the tunnels they had climbed into to avoid endangering themselves and others. Four tunnels have been dug by the group, with three remaining occupied: two in Essex and one in Warwickshire. Construction worker Sam, 29, from Suffolk, filmed a video taken inside a tunnel under a road leading to the fuel depot. He is underneath the A1090, and told viewers police decided to reopen the road yesterday above the tunnel, 'despite the fact that the tunnel goes all the way through the road and despite the fact that there are people inside the tunnel. 'This is a direct breach of their duty of care, and is putting lives at risk. We will remain in the tunnel because of the government's continued failure to act on the climate emergency. Police, shut this road immediately, for the safety of the people in the tunnel, and the safety of the people on the roadside.'

Daily Mail

Hilarious. One can't help but notice that most of these "protestors" are white and are either middle aged or student aged. Climate change activism is very much a pastime of the well off.

 

[TSwizzle]

Insufferable prick Newsom inflicts yet more misery on the people of California;

California is set to roll out its long-awaited ban on new gasoline cars on Thursday, which is part of its rule to have all new cars sold by 2035 to be electric only in an effort to fight climate change. Governor Gavin Newsom first announced the ban in 2020 as a means to reduce the amount of smog-induced pollution in the air, which will improve the state's air quality that is the worst in the US. The move will also make California the first in the world to mandate zero-emission vehicles on its roads - but many other states and countries have joined the movement, but have not yet began the ban.

Probably holding off to see what backlash Newsom gets.

Thursday's launch will require that 35 percent of new passenger vehicles sold in the state by 2026 produce zero emissions, then 68 percent by 2030 and ultimately 100 percent five years after. However, California automakers are weary about the move, saying officials need to provide more infrastructure and a better understanding of how minerals needed to make lithium batteries will be mined. 'The climate crisis is solvable if we focus on the big, bold steps needed to stem the tide of carbon pollution,' Newsom said in a statement Wednesday. The move, according to Newson, will cut greenhouse gas emissions by 35 percent in the nation's most populous state.

Daily Mail

Which will have absolutely zero effect on the "climate crisis".

 

[lpetrich]

Hilarious. One can't help but notice that most of these "protestors" are white and are either middle aged or student aged. Climate change activism is very much a pastime of the well off.

Or else you haven't noticed any others.

I'm not impressed with this pseudo-left-wing posturing, because it isn't what a right-winger would logically say, that such people are class traitors.

Why not hate on the American revolutionaries for being so bourgeois?

Insufferable prick Newsom inflicts yet more misery on the people of California;

California is set to roll out its long-awaited ban on new gasoline cars on Thursday, which is part of its rule to have all new cars sold by 2035 to be electric only in an effort to fight climate change. ...

Which will have absolutely zero effect on the "climate crisis".

Emitting less CO2 will have zero effect?

 

[lpetrich]

Adam McKay on Twitter: "The massive heat wave & drought China is experiencing may end up being the worst in recorded history. But turn on the corp news & it’s barely mentioned. George Monbiot calls it The Great Silence. It’s a failure of communication that can’t be rivaled by anything in human history." / Twitter
noting
Daniel Moser on Twitter: "Shocking pictures from China: World’s third-largest river dries up in drought (vid link)" / Twitter

Daniel Moser on Twitter: "Extreme weather is typically rare. But climate change is increasing the odds of more extreme weather events taking place.
A changing climate means means more of the curve touches the extremes - and so extreme weather become more frequent and more extreme.
Via @epa @bbcweather (pic link)" / Twitter

 

[steve_bank]

China could be falling into ocean and they would deny it.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The lowering Danube has uncovered a number of German warships scuttled in WWII. Loaded with explosives.

The issue s with floods in the SW is the hard dry ground from drought does not absorb water.

What is this "ground" of which you speak?

(Typical terrain around here is either loose rock or basically natural cobblestone. Occasionally you find sandy areas--which if natural represent an area of water flow.)

Think about it. If what you experience includes loose rock/cobblestone that evolved over time and water erosion. Doesn't it make sense that what was there first was just solid rock and evidence of erosion or ground.

Actually, it's the other way around--any loose dirt generally either floods away or blows away.

 

[fromderinside]

The lowering Danube has uncovered a number of German warships scuttled in WWII. Loaded with explosives.

The issue s with floods in the SW is the hard dry ground from drought does not absorb water.

What is this "ground" of which you speak?

(Typical terrain around here is either loose rock or basically natural cobblestone. Occasionally you find sandy areas--which if natural represent an area of water flow.)

Think about it. If what you experience includes loose rock/cobblestone that evolved over time and water erosion. Doesn't it make sense that what was there first was just solid rock and evidence of erosion or ground.

Actually, it's the other way around--any loose dirt generally either floods away or blows away.

Didn't steve_bank just write ...

The issues with floods in the SW is the hard dry ground from drought does not absorb water.

I just backed steve_bank up describing the process of erosion.

You seem to be in double denial. If there can be wind why cannot there also be baking dry calm heat.

 

[Swammerdami]

Insufferable prick Newsom inflicts yet more misery on the people of California;

California is set to roll out its long-awaited ban on new gasoline cars on Thursday, which is part of its rule to have all new cars sold by 2035 to be electric only in an effort to fight climate change. ...

Which will have absolutely zero effect on the "climate crisis".

Emitting less CO2 will have zero effect?

I am not authorized to speak for Mr. Swizzle but two hypotheses present:

• The California economy is only 3.5% of the world economy. If the U.S. were broken up into its states for the purpose of comparison, California would be way down in the #4 slot among the world's economies, behind China, Japan and Germany. GDP is an imperfect proxy for CO₂ emissions (the U.S. emissions are 7 times Germany's, and 4½ times Japan's but China's are 2½ times the U.S.'s) but it will do for now.
  
  Now, 3.5% is more than zero, but Mr. Swizzle may be rounding down to the nearest multiple of ten. And let's not forget that political values play a role: When tossing trash out on the highway, a right-winger might think "Less than 0.01% of the trash is mine; that's about zero" while a humanist is more likely to recall Kant's Categorical Imperative.
  
  
• Mr. Swizzle puts "climate crisis" in quotation marks. Surely he'll think a crisis is unaffected if that crisis doesn't even exist! AFAIK, he has never linked to any scholarly works; but if someone mention droughts, crumbling glaciers, or hurricanes, Swizzle always reports on the delightful cool weather in Santa Monica! In his view, I guess Santa Monica is like the "canary in the coal mine": We can be happy that weather will improve around the world, with Santa Monica leading the way!

Where I live — where I'm typing this right now — it's pretty much exactly 81°F all the time. We almost had a severe climate crisis a few days ago: The government mislaid our last electricity bill and, rather than waiting a month or mailing a warning or such, they sent the guy out to disconnect our meter! Fortunately our neighbor intervened on our behalf. Otherwise I'm afraid the temperature would have quickly soared above 81°F.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Of course, China's emissions are really just First World emissions because we all out sourced our production there. The idea China is polluting too much and that isn't fair has got to be one of the least honest arguments out there.

 

[thebeave]

Hilarious. One can't help but notice that most of these "protestors" are white and are either middle aged or student aged. Climate change activism is very much a pastime of the well off.

Or else you haven't noticed any others.

I'm not impressed with this pseudo-left-wing posturing, because it isn't what a right-winger would logically say, that such people are class traitors.

Why not hate on the American revolutionaries for being so bourgeois?

Insufferable prick Newsom inflicts yet more misery on the people of California;

California is set to roll out its long-awaited ban on new gasoline cars on Thursday, which is part of its rule to have all new cars sold by 2035 to be electric only in an effort to fight climate change. ...

Which will have absolutely zero effect on the "climate crisis".

Emitting less CO2 will have zero effect?

The cars themselves won't be emitting CO2, but what about the grid power sources that recharge the EV batteries? I'm curious about what Gavin thinks is going to power all our homes and recharging stations going forward? We have already been experiencing blackouts and brownouts. Lefty California doesn't like nuclear power, natural gas or coal. Hydro is pretty much tapped out, especially under current drought conditions. Geothermal is viable only in small pockets of the state. That leaves solar and wind, which don't make power on windless days, cloudy days and/or at night. Plus, it takes so many years to get a power plant online these days, given all the legal, environmental and regulatory hurdles in the way I don't see how any substantial capacity increase to our grid can take place in such a short period of time. Maybe he's counting on the continued mass exodus from California to keep the electrical grid from overloading? By 2035, we may have the population of South Dakota. Perhaps that explains the soft on crime attitude in this state! The pieces of the puzzle are beginning to come together now...

 

[steve_bank]

The lowering Danube has uncovered a number of German warships scuttled in WWII. Loaded with explosives.

The issue s with floods in the SW is the hard dry ground from drought does not absorb water.

What is this "ground" of which you speak?

(Typical terrain around here is either loose rock or basically natural cobblestone. Occasionally you find sandy areas--which if natural represent an area of water flow.)

Think about it. If what you experience includes loose rock/cobblestone that evolved over time and water erosion. Doesn't it make sense that what was there first was just solid rock and evidence of erosion or ground.

Actually, it's the other way around--any loose dirt generally either floods away or blows away.

That's what grass is for.

 

[TSwizzle]

Maybe he's counting on the continued mass exodus from California to keep the electrical grid from overloading? By 2035, we may have the population of South Dakota. Perhaps that explains the soft on crime attitude in this state! The pieces of the puzzle are beginning to come together now...

I have no doubt the goal is to crush the use of private cars in California and force the plebs onto the bus.

 

[Politesse]

In the news:

Resident of the country's most populous state believes that it is ten years away from being the least populous, because 300,000 people left last year.

In other news:

Conservatism kills brain cells, more at 11.

 

[thebeave]

In the news:

Resident of the country's most populous state believes that it is ten years away from being the least populous, because 300,000 people left last year.

In other news:

Conservatism kills brain cells, more at 11.

Heh. Nice try on the burn. But, 2035 is 13 years away, not 10, and Wyoming is the least populous state, not S. Dakota. On top of that, the whole comment was quite obviously hyperbole intended for comic relief (see emoji). Sooooo,

In other news:

Liberalism kills brain cells, more at 11.

In all seriousness though, what energy sources is CA going to use to power the grid for the upcoming surge in EV? Unicorn farts? Rubbing cats backwards? And speaking of residents leaving CA, its only going to get worse if this EV mandate sticks. Not everyone can afford EVs or installing charging facilities in their house. Not to mention the impracticality for those who are regular long distance drivers.