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Democrats trying to unseat each other II

Given that I neither know nor care who the fuck Summer Lee is, it's really not my notion at all, just your projection.
So what are you doing on this thread then? This thread is about Democrats' from the left fringe running insurrectionist campaigns against establishment candidates. Summer Lee is one of those. Are you just drive-by attacking people from the comfort of your Holden Ute?

It's a fact that the radical left barely exists, and has zero power, in today's USA.
They very much exist and have quite a bit of power. They have pushed Biden and senators who fear a primary challenge - like Chuck Schumer - to the left.

Your obsession with individual people who you identify as 'radical left' is your own problem. I really don't give crap the first about any of them, as a genuinely left wing non-American.
This thread is about those people. If anybody has an "obsession" about the minutiae of all these contests and progressive challenges and insurrections is it lpetrich, who writes about pretty much all of them. I comment of a few of them. So what are you attacking me for?
 
Given that I neither know nor care who the fuck Summer Lee is, it's really not my notion at all, just your projection.
So what are you doing on this thread then? This thread is about Democrats' from the left fringe running insurrectionist campaigns against establishment candidates. Summer Lee is one of those. Are you just drive-by attacking people from the comfort of your Holden Ute?

It's a fact that the radical left barely exists, and has zero power, in today's USA.
They very much exist and have quite a bit of power. They have pushed Biden and senators who fear a primary challenge - like Chuck Schumer - to the left.

Your obsession with individual people who you identify as 'radical left' is your own problem. I really don't give crap the first about any of them, as a genuinely left wing non-American.
This thread is about those people. If anybody has an "obsession" about the minutiae of all these contests and progressive challenges and insurrections is it lpetrich, who writes about pretty much all of them. I comment of a few of them. So what are you attacking me for?
Because you posted something so fiercely dumb I couldn't find it within myself to keep on ignoring it.

viz:

I don't know about you, but I do not think radicalization and polarization of Congress is a good idea for our country.

If this were a criticism of the GOP, it would at least have the benefit of not being batshit crazy paranoia. But it's not, so it doesn't.

I read pretty much everything that's posted on IIDB, but I try to ignore the bulk of the US political minutiæ. Unless the dumb gets too loud.

https://xkcd.com/386

6CB0E446-82C2-424A-A8B0-DEC2F45A31C7.png
 
The votes are not certified yet, but we have a good idea of how most of the candidates fared. The numbers: 538 partisanship, (Ballotpedia) vote fraction, difference from second candidate.

Ayanna Pressley MA-07 73% 84.9% +69.8%, AOC NY-14 +57% 71.3% +44.5%, Ilhan Omar MN-05 +57% 75.2% +50.4%, Rashida Tlaib MI-12 +44% 70.1% +43.2%, Jamaal Bowman +40% 64.3% +28.7%, Cori Bush MO-01 +52% 72.8% +48.4%. Katie Porter CA-47 +6% (only 60% counted: 50.5% +1.0%)

All but one of these incumbents won with good margins against Republican opponents, and the exception ran in a strongly-divided district. The newcomers:

Jasmine Crockett TX-30 +51% 75.8% +54.7%, Jonathan Jackson IL-01 +41% 65.5% +34.0%, Delia Ramirez IL-03 +39% 66.7% +33.4%, Greg Casar TX-35 +38%, Maxwell Frost FL-10 +29% 59.0% +19.5%, Becca Balint VT-01 +28% 62.8% +34.9%, Summer Lee PA-12 +15% 55.7% +11.4%, Jamie McLeod-Skinner OR-05 +3% (not called yet: 48.7% -2.6%), Michelle Vallejo TX-15 0% 44.8% -8.5%, John Fetterman PA-SEN -3% 50.5% +3.4%, Mandela Barnes WI-SEN -4% 49.5% -1.0%, Odessa Kelly TN-07 -21% 38.1% -21.9%, (gerrymandered in the middle of her run), Charles Booker KY-SEN -27% 38.2% -23.6% against Rand Paul.

Winners: Jasmine Crockett TX-30, Jonathan Jackson IL-01, Delia Ramirez IL-03, Greg Casar TX-35, Maxwell Frost FL-10, Becca Balint VT-01, Summer Lee PA-12, John Fetterman PA-SEN.
 
Bernie Sanders on Twitter: "Progressive candidates had a great election night. I want to thank everyone who got out there and helped make this happen. There will now be more strong progressives in the U.S. House than ever before. I’d like to quickly highlight a few of them." / Twitter

Summer Lee PA-12, Becca Balint VT-01, Greg Casar TX-35, Jasmine Crockett TX-30, Jonathan Jackson IL-01, Delia Ramirez IL-03, Val Hoyle OR-04, Maxwell Frost FL-10,

Summer Lee successfully survived AIPAC's sore-loser campaign against her. After backing a primary-election opponent and losing, AIPAC then backed a general-election opponent. So AIPAC didn't have a Byron Brown sort of sore-loser success.

So that means that the "Squad" will grow in size by a factor of 2.
 
CRAP. CRAP. CRAP.

God dammit. In my district, Jamie McLeod-Skinner, someone to my left, beat Kurt Schrader. Kurt is a good man that I've met personally. He was solidly left, a democrat. The far left helped Skinner beat Schrader. Thanks a lot. I voted Skinner. But she lost to a right wing cultural warrior. Yikes. Lori-Chavez-DeRemer. Very frustrating.
 
CRAP. CRAP. CRAP.

God dammit. In my district, Jamie McLeod-Skinner, someone to my left, beat Kurt Schrader. Kurt is a good man that I've met personally. He was solidly left, a democrat. The far left helped Skinner beat Schrader. Thanks a lot. I voted Skinner. But she lost to a right wing cultural warrior. Yikes. Lori-Chavez-DeRemer. Very frustrating.
Schrader ran on lower prescription drug pricing but changed his mind after he got a buttload of cash from the pharmacuetical industry.
 
CRAP. CRAP. CRAP.

God dammit. In my district, Jamie McLeod-Skinner, someone to my left, beat Kurt Schrader. Kurt is a good man that I've met personally. He was solidly left, a democrat. The far left helped Skinner beat Schrader. Thanks a lot. I voted Skinner. But she lost to a right wing cultural warrior. Yikes. Lori-Chavez-DeRemer. Very frustrating.
Schrader ran on lower prescription drug pricing but changed his mind after he got a buttload of cash from the pharmacuetical industry.
Well, Chavez will really fix everything! She's going to go after Hunter and she will fight to ensure that our kindergartens stop promoting CRT! Yikes, this was incredibly easy to predict. My district is really a bellweather district. It's always been 50-50 split. Then when Schrader (very much a moderate) took over, and established himself in the region, and developed a dependable following, dems redrew the lines to add some more conservative areas (into eastern Oregon). Eastern Oregon is as conservative as Idaho. Then the far left in Oregon started promoting Skinner, a person far to the left of most in the district. Turnout was low in the primaries (I didn't vote in the primary which I greatly regret); Skinner pulled off the upset. Then Skinner got beat.
 
CRAP. CRAP. CRAP.

God dammit. In my district, Jamie McLeod-Skinner, someone to my left, beat Kurt Schrader. Kurt is a good man that I've met personally. He was solidly left, a democrat. The far left helped Skinner beat Schrader. Thanks a lot. I voted Skinner. But she lost to a right wing cultural warrior. Yikes. Lori-Chavez-DeRemer. Very frustrating.
Schrader ran on lower prescription drug pricing but changed his mind after he got a buttload of cash from the pharmacuetical industry.
Well, Chavez will really fix everything! She's going to go after Hunter and she will fight to ensure that our kindergartens stop promoting CRT! Yikes, this was incredibly easy to predict. My district is really a bellweather district. It's always been 50-50 split. Then when Schrader (very much a moderate) took over, and established himself in the region, and developed a dependable following, dems redrew the lines to add some more conservative areas (into eastern Oregon). Eastern Oregon is as conservative as Idaho. Then the far left in Oregon started promoting Skinner, a person far to the left of most in the district. Turnout was low in the primaries (I didn't vote in the primary which I greatly regret); Skinner pulled off the upset. Then Skinner got beat.
That's what happens when the pol thinks about his pocketbook instead of his voters.
 
A Controversial Decision in Oregon Could Cost Democrats the House - Nov 11 - "Progressive Jamie McLeod-Skinner trails by 2 points in a race the national Democratic super PACs preemptively deemed unwinnable. She’s not the only one."
McLeod-Skinner made national headlines earlier this year for defeating seven-term incumbent Kurt Schrader in a fiercely contested primary. Her win — the only success an insurgent candidate notched against a Democratic incumbent this cycle — was driven by a lopsided overperformance in Deschutes.

Schrader had been a member of the so-called Unbreakable Nine who organized against President Joe Biden’s Build Back Better agenda, and said in a private call with the dark-money sponsors of their operation, No Labels, that he hoped to kill it. National progressive groups as well as most of the local Democratic Party operations rallied behind McLeod-Skinner to knock out Schrader in May.
Progressives find a new takedown target in the House - POLITICO - "In what could become the next marquee Democratic primary, top liberal groups are aiming to knock off moderate Rep. Kurt Schrader in Oregon."
But it wasn’t until the last few years — when the Oregon Democrat likened the second impeachment of former President Donald Trump to a “lynching,” opposed a $15 minimum wage, and initially voted against the American Rescue Plan — that he truly surfaced on the radar of national left-wing activists.
Lynching???
In a statement, Schrader said his votes in the House prove that he supports organized labor and Biden’s priorities. As for his “lynching” comments, he quickly apologized at the time, saying “my words were wrong, hurtful and completely inappropriate.”

“My record shows I have voted with President Biden 96 percent of the time, including voting for the American Rescue Plan to support families, schools, and small businesses through the COVID-19 crisis, and the PRO Act to protect workers’ rights and strengthen unions,” said Schrader. “I’m also proud to have the backing of Planned Parenthood Action Fund, Joint Council of Teamsters No. 37, and Progressive Turnout Project, among others.”
 
Rep. Kurt Schrader defends vote to block drug pricing bill | kgw.com - "The pharmaceutical industry gave $144,252 to Rep. Kurt Schrader's 2020 campaign, more money than he received from any other industry."
According to OpenSecrets, a group tracking money in politics, Schrader has received $614,830 from the pharmaceutical industry since he began his career in Congress. He received $144,252 of that during the last election cycle, more money than any other industry that donated to his campaign.

Schrader also reportedly inherited a “fortune” from his grandfather who was a top executive at Pfizer, according to The Oregonian.

When asked about accusations these connections influenced his vote, Schrader said he understands how it looks, but said his track record shows he is tough on the industry.

“If pharma thinks they’re buying a vote, they’re getting a bad deal,” Schrader said. “This bill that [Rep. Scott Peters] and I are offering, not only is it dangerous for pharma because it has a chance of passing, but it's more complete and more in-depth. So I appreciate people's concern. I personally am proud of the work my grandfather did and developing mass production for Pfizer. He saved millions of American lives during World War II. But that in no way influences the work I do.”

Schrader also said he doesn’t know why the pharmaceutical industry gives him so much money.

“A common fallacy the average person has is the reason they give you money is you say you’re going to vote for this or vote for that. I’ve never ever done that, and I don’t know many legislators that do that,” Schrader said. “They just want to have access to at least plead their case. I think most smart legislators like me, we'll get the pharmaceutical groups in to champion their case, I'll get the patient advocacy groups to come in, I'll get the insurance companies and all the different groups, and then you make your decision. It’s not like they actually have much opportunity to control what you vote on at the end of the day.”
That's the Francis Bacon defense - "Sure I took those bribes, but I didn't let them influence me."

For much of his life, Sir Francis Bacon had been a judge, but someone exposed him as having taken bribes from his clients. He resigned and retired to his estate, and made that defense of his actions.
 
 Francis Bacon - lived some 400 years ago,

Back to A Controversial Decision in Oregon Could Cost Democrats the House
While the DCCC made an investment of just under $2 million dollars in the race, they came off the air in the final few weeks, and the leadership-aligned super political action committee, House Majority PAC, made the eyebrow-raising move to triage the race altogether. House Majority PAC communications director CJ Warnke declined to explain the reasoning behind the move at the time, but told The Intercept Friday that House Majority PAC “had to make strategic decisions across the country to build the most optimal path to Democratic success this cycle.”

“Our investments,” he continued, “made a major difference across the country and in Oregon, where we spent nearly $4 million for Congresswoman-elect Val Hoyle in OR-04 and State Rep. Andrea Salinas in OR-06 — who both faced an unprecedented amount of Republican spending this year.”
While neglecting OR-05. Also, KS never campaigned for JMLS, instead preferring to campaign for gubernatorial candidate Betsy Johnson: Democratic Congressman Kurt Schrader endorses Betsy Johnson for Oregon governor - OPB
Of course, the fiasco in the neighboring 6th Congressional District also has House Majority PAC’s fingerprints all over it. There, progressive state representative Andrea Salinas entered the general election bruised from the most expensive primary contest in the nation after former cryptocurrency billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried and House Majority PAC teamed up in an over $10 million failed attempt to anoint political newcomer and effective altruist Carrick Flynn as the nominee. The unorthodox partnership appeared to be the result of a quid pro quo, as Bankman-Fried contemporaneously donated $6 million to the committee. House Majority PAC spent $1 million on Flynn and ended up spending over $3.25 million of the remainder helping Salinas win the general election in a seat that was considered safe earlier in the cycle. The DCCC also spent $1.75 million boosting Salinas. (Bankman-Fried was worth billions of dollars at the time; as of now, he appears broke.)

Republicans, on the other hand, treated the race in Oregon’s 5th District as the toss-up it clearly was; they spent nearly $8 million in total — spending that ballooned all the way through Election Day.
 
While a handful of progressive organizations stepped in to alleviate some of the massive financial disparity — including a $1 million investment from Working Families Party that stretched across the primary and general — their limited resources meant McLeod-Skinner, who has long declined support from corporate-funded PACs, was left with an outside spending deficit of over $5 million. The progressive groups who worked to close that gap have been sharp in their criticism. “While they pumped last-minute money into the DCCC chair’s losing race in New York,” Indivisible national political director Dani Negrete told The Intercept, “Jamie has been holding on entirely based on her strength as a candidate and her grassroots support.”

The party’s underinvestment in McLeod-Skinner is reminiscent of Democrats’ decision to abandon progressive nominee Kara Eastman during her 2018 run against Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon. After Eastman won a stunning upset against the national party’s handpicked nominee, former representative Brad Ashford, Democrats’ national committees declined to spend significant money to help her in the general election, which she lost by just under 5,000 votes. When Eastman was renominated for the seat in 2020, the national party lent its support, but the damage was already done. Millions in unanswered ads from previous cycles had defined her image to the electorate, and Bacon, whose prior record was in step with harder line conservatives in his party, moderated his image substantially. He won by over 4 percentage points.

Despite the headwinds he faced this year, Bacon trounced moderate Democrat Tony Vargas, who ran with the early blessing of the national party, by a margin nearly identical to the margin he beat Eastman by in 2020 — demonstrating that progressive antipathy is unworkable as either a short-term or long-term strategy if national Democrats hope to wield power rather than appease wealthy donors.
So the Democratic leadership was irked by Kara Eastman's primary victory also? What thin skins.

AOC recalls that when she first arrived in Congress, a lot of Congresspeople were very irked by her, because she had unseated an old friend of theirs, Joe Crowley.
 
AOC recalls that when she first arrived in Congress, a lot of Congresspeople were very irked by her, because she had unseated an old friend of theirs, Joe Crowley.

Well, that's the danger if you stab a fellow Democrat in the back, I guess.

As to JMS, OR-5 is only deemed D+2. So obviously it is easier for a moderate like Shrader than for a lefty like JMS to win there. That's the danger of progs primarying moderates in districts that are not safe Dem districts like AOC's NY-14 which is D+25.
 
Because you posted something so fiercely dumb I couldn't find it within myself to keep on ignoring it.
What is "fiercely dumb" here is you admitting that you don't know much about Summer Lee and yet insist that she is a moderate.

If this were a criticism of the GOP, it would at least have the benefit of not being batshit crazy paranoia. But it's not, so it doesn't.
It is criticism of both. It is partisans who think their party's shit don't stink.

Unless the dumb gets too loud.
Used to be a time when personal insults were deemed to be against the TOU. Alas ...
 
AOC recalls that when she first arrived in Congress, a lot of Congresspeople were very irked by her, because she had unseated an old friend of theirs, Joe Crowley.
Well, that's the danger if you stab a fellow Democrat in the back, I guess.
Winning an election is stabbing someone in the back???
As to JMS, OR-5 is only deemed D+2. So obviously it is easier for a moderate like Shrader than for a lefty like JMS to win there. That's the danger of progs primarying moderates in districts that are not safe Dem districts like AOC's NY-14 which is D+25.
I think that Kurt Schrader would have been vulnerable. I checked on United States House of Representatives elections, 2022 - Ballotpedia and Report Cards for 2020 - Ideology Score - All Representatives - GovTrack.us and I found that every Democratic incumbent who lost to a Republican was relatively conservative. GovTrack score: 0 = lib, 1 = con.

Cindy Axne IA-03 0.51, Alfred Lawson FL-02 0.34, Elaine Luria VA-02 0.44, Tom Malinowski NJ-07 0.36, Sean Patrick Maloney NY-17 0.30, Tom O'Halleran AZ-02 0.50.

Kurt Schrader 0R-05 fits right in at 0.45.

After scrutiny, US Rep. Cindy Axne supports ban on stock trades in Congress | Campaign Legal Center and Luria calls plan to ban stock trading in Congress “bulls—“ | WAVY.com
“I think this whole concept is bull****,” Luria told Punchbowl News. “Because I think that, why would you assume that members of Congress are going to be inherently bad or corrupt?”
noting
email.punchbowl.news/t/ViewEmail/t/08B9F6CABF6820E72540EF23F30FEDED/2084BCBFB0618DF95281BC0AA5ABFD98?alternativeLink=False
Some news for you this morning: Two vulnerable House Democrats have been privately expressing concerns about any effort to ban stock trading on Capitol Hill. The lawmakers in question: Reps. Cindy Axne of Iowa and Elaine Luria of Virginia
With EL saying that "I think this whole concept is bullshit." CA seemed more sensible.
Axne, on the other hand, worries that a ban on congressional stock trading would fail to differentiate between accounts that aren’t controlled by members of Congress (like 529 education accounts) and active trading being done by lawmakers.
Being on the take is not good for one's image, and KS was on the take in a big way, even offering the Francis Bacon defense.

On the bright side, some Republicans lost to Democrats, like Republican Mayra Flores, who won in a TX-34 special election earlier this year, but who then lost to a Democrat the general election. She was big on Religious-Right, God-is-an-American sort of Republicanism.
 
Two candidates I remember from 2020, they won in state-legislature elections:

Nabilah Islam makes history with Senate win in Georgia | 11alive.com - "The 32-year-old beat out her Republican opponent Josh McKay for the seat– winning with 53 percent of the vote in State Senate District 7."

Nabilah Islam - Ballotpedia - she barely won the primary and general elections.

Back in 2020, she ran for Congress in GA-07, placing 3rd with 12.3% of the vote. Incumbent Carolyn Boudreaux won the primary and the general.

Rachel Ventura Declares Victory In Illinois 43rd State Senate Race - 1340 WJOL
With 100% of ballots counted in Illinois’ 43rd State Senate District, Progressive Democrat Rachel Ventura declared victory with a 10 point margin over her Republican opponent, Diane Harris. Ventura commended Harris for running a clean campaign. “I have a great amount of respect for the class and civility that Diane Harris brings to the political sphere,” said Ventura. “I think Americans are tired of the negative attacks, lies and destructive politics that accompany elections, and I’m thankful that we were both able to rise above that.”

“My overarching goal is to restore hope at a time when Americans need it – restore hope in the broken system, restore hope that we can win without corporate sponsors, restore democracy and decency, and shift power and dollars back to the people where they belong,” she said during her speech. “I understand the art of compromise and will try to work with everyone, but I’m also willing to get in the ring and go a few rounds with anyone.”

Rachel Ventura - Ballotpedia - this year, she beat the State Senate #43 incumbent by 15%, but in 2020, she ran for Congress, losing the primary to incumbent Bill Foster by 17%.
 
Let's see how well the progressive insurgents did in this general election, compared to other elections. Numbers are pct:
  • 2018:
    • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 56.7, 43.3 - 78.2, 13.6, 6.6, 1.6 - (2020) 74.4, 18.1, 5.0, 2.2, 0.2 - 71.6, 27.4, 0.9, 0.1 - (2022) 100 - 71.3, 26.8, 1.9 (NY-14: +58, +44.2 )
    • Ayanna Pressley: 58.6, 41.4 - 98.3, 1.7 - (2020) 98.6, 1.4 - 86.6, 12.5, 0.8 - (2022) 98.7, 1.3 - 84.9, 15.1 (MA-07: +73, +69.8)
    • Rashida Tlaib: 31.2, 30.2, 14.1, 12.5, 6.6, 5.4 - 84.2, 11.3, 4.1, 0.4 - (2020) 66.3, 33.7 - 78.1, 18.6, 1.8, 0.7, 0.7, 0.0 - (2022) 64.4, 20.1, 10.5, 5.0 - 70.1, 26.9, 3.0 (MI-12: +44, +43.2)
    • Ilhan Omar: 48.2, 30.4, 13.0, 3.7, 2.8, 1.8 - 78.0, 21.7, 0.4 - (2020) 58.2, 38.5, 1.5, 1.1, 0.7 - 64.3, 25.8, 9.5, 0.4 - (2022) 50.3, 48.2, 0.6, 0.5, 0.4 - 75.2, 24.8 (MN-05: +57, +50.4)
    • Katie Porter: 20.3, 51.7, 17.8, 6.0, 2.3, 1.9 - 52.1, 47.9 - (2020) 50.8, 17.9, 12.8, 11.1, 4.0, 2.4, 1.0 - 53.5, 46.5 - (2022) 51.0, 30.8, 8.4, 7.7, 2.1 - 51.6, 48.4 (CA-47: +6, +3.2)
  • 2020:
    • Jamaal Bowman: 55.4, 40.6, 1.8, 1.3, 0.9, 0.1 - 84.0, 15.8, 0.2 - (2022) 60.9, 23.0, 14.6, 1.3, 0.2 - 64.3, 35.6, 0.1 (NY-16: +40, +28.7)
    • Cori Bush: (2018: 36.9, 56.7, 3.4, 2.9) - 48.5, 45.6, 5.9 - 78.8, 19.0, 2.1, 0.1 - (2022) 69.5, 26.6, 1.8, 1.1, 1.0 - 72.8, 24.4, 2.8 (MO-01: +52, +48.4)
  • 2022:
    • Jasmine Crockett TX-30 +51 - 48.5, 17.1, 7.8, 7.7, 5.9, 5.0, 3.4, 3.4, 1.2 - 60.1, 39.9 - 75.8, 21.1, 2.1, 0.9, 0.0 (+54.7)
    • Jonathan Jackson IL-01 +41 - 28.0, 19.2, 14.1, 12.0, 5.6, 5.0, 3.3, 2.2, 2.1, 1.9, 1.2, 1.2, 1.1, 0.9, 0.6, 0.3 - 65.5, 34.5 (+31.0)
    • Delia Ramirez IL-04 +39 - 65.6, 23.9, 6.5, 4.0 - 66.7, 33.3 (+33.4)
    • Greg Casar TX-35 +38 - 61.1, 15.6, 15.6, 7.6 - 74.9, 25.1 (+49.8)
    • Maxwell Frost FL-10 +29 - 34.0, 25.0, 15.5, 9.7, 6.9, 2.4, 2.2, 1.9, 1.3, 1.1 - 59.0, 39.5, 1.0, 0.6 (+19.5)
    • Becca Balint VT-01 +28 - 60.3, 37.3, 1.4, 0.9, 0.1 - 62.8, 27.9, 4.5, 2.0, 1.6, 1.2 (+34.9)
    • Summer Lee PA-12 +15 - 41.9, 41.0, 10.9, 4.8, 1.5 - 55.7, 44.3 (+11.4)
    • Jamie McLeod-Skinner OR-05 +3 - 56.9, 42.7, 0.5 - 48.9, 51.1 (-2.2)
    • Michelle Vallejo TX-15 0 - 28.3, 20.1, 19.2, 16.5, 10.6, 5.2 - 50.1, 49.9 - 44.8, 53.3, 1.9 (-8.5)
    • John Fetterman PA-SEN -3 - 58.6, 26.3, 10.8, 4.2 - 50.5, 47.1, 1.4, 0.6, 0.5 (+3.4)
    • Mandela Barnes WI-SEN -4 - 77.5, 8.7, 8.7, 2.1, 1.1, 0.7, 0.7, 0.5 - 49.5, 50.5 (-1.0)
    • Odessa Kelly TN-07 -21 - 100 - 38.1, 60.0, 1.9 (-21.9)
    • Charles Booker KY-SEN -27 - 73.1, 10.7, 10.0, 6.2 - 38.2, 61.8 (-23.6)
So 538 did a good job in predicting how well the candidates did, even though the Republicans did a few points better than expected across the board. Also, the incumbent progressives did about as well as they did in previous elections. Most of them are in safe seats, so they are only vulnerable to primary challenges.
 
Henry Cuellar (D-Azerbaijan) vs. Jessica Cisneros (*): (2002) 47.2, 51.5, 0.7, 0.5 - (2004) 59.0, 38.6, 2.4 - (2006) 67.6, 20.3, 12.1 - (2008) 68.7, 29.2, 2.1 - (2010) 56.3, 42.0, 1.7 - (2012) 67.9, 29.8, 1.5, 0.8 - (2014) 82.1, 13.3, 4.6 - (2016) 66.2, 31.3, 2.5 - (2018) 84.4, 15.6 - (2020) 51.8, 48.2* - 58.3, 39.0, 2.7 - (2022) 48.7, 46.6*, 4.7 - 50.3, 49.7* - 57.8, 42.2

So that raid on his house did not hurt him very much, and his Azerbaijan connections didn't either. This is a country without much geopolitical, economic, or cultural significance outside of its neighborhood of countries, and no big community of immigrants from it in HC's district that I know of. It's a place that I'd expect journalists Cenk Uygur and Ana Kasparian to know about, but not many other people. It seems that Azerbaijan's leadership has been raising their country's profile by buying influence with that country's oil wealth, and that HC is one of their recipients.
 
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