Your interpretation of that research is wrong. Here is the first sentence of the article you cite:
[P]"Having a criminal justice system that imposes sanctions no doubt does deter criminal conduct."[/P]
What the article is about is a more nuanced point that changes to the law designed to increase the punishment for particular crimes do not reliably alter rates for those particular crimes. The main reason the article cites for this is simply that potential offenders don't know the details of the criminal law and thus of changes in the law, so their is no way such changes would reliably be factored into their behavioral choices. The article is quite correct on this point, but that point does nothing to undermine the fact (one the article affirms) that punishment in general does reduce crime in general.
As for Skinner, his biggest error was in under-estimating the role of human cognitive processes that come in between the S and the R in his experiments.
Take 1000 people who have never been punished for shitting on the floor. Ask them shit on the floor at their friends house. 100% of them will not want to do it, because they accurately know the negative reaction of their friend, and when their friend yells at them, even days later, 100% will know exactly why.
Punishments on humans do not require anywhere near the direct contingencies they require for other animals that lack our inferential capacities.
So much for science then.
The first sentence states a presumption based on casual observation not on effect. Its a mechanism to set the minds of law enforcement types at ease with their pursuit of 'justice' ferch***ts sake.
No, the first sentence is acknowledging what all relevant science and data support about the general relationship between punishment and deterrence (i.e., it works).
Nothing in the rest of the article speaks to that question at all. Rather it addresses a completely different question as to whether minor changes in specific punishments for specific crimes are readily known by all people well enough that they would have an impact upon rates for those specific crimes. It has nothing to do with you actual claim that punishment does not work as a deterrent, but only whether most people have expert level knowledge of what the exact punishments are at any given moment.
As for you 1000 persons example if it were true there would be no crime. Reliably a fraction, somewhere between 3 and 20 percent, of individuals will transgress for advantage or from personality. So expect up to two hundred individuals to do some pooping on the floor.
Wow. You really know nothing at all about human psychology or behavior. You sincerely believe that if you randomly asked 1000 people to shit on their friends floor that 200 would do so? Not only would almost none do so, but any that did would do so with full knowledge that their friends would get angry about it, and 100% of their friends would get angry about it. IOW, contrary to your theory of human psychology, they would not be just randomly guessing about their friends reaction, they would all have very accurate predictive knowledge of the reaction, despite never once experiencing their friend react to them shitting on the floor. IOW, they need no specific S-R contingencies to know exactly what the negative reaction will be. The few that do it anyway, will tell you that they wanted to elicit the reaction because they thought it would be funny and thus the reaction is not punishment in their view.
As for punishment, a person punished is suppressed from whatever behavior they were doing just before the punishment is well established
Unfortunately, as the article points out, time and many other contingencies need be in place for punishment to be apt.
No. What is well established is that animals lacking most higher cognition functions that human's possess require far greater contingencies because they are incapable of recognizing any relationships except co-occurrences in time. Also, well established is that human's draw inferential connections automatically and constantly via semantic/conceptual overlap of the abstract concepts activated by the concrete properties of objects/events. This leads them to form complex networks of associations and infer cause-effect relationships that have virtually no bearing on the superficial contingencies, such as what was the most immediately preceding event.
Imagine that you force all 1000 adults to shit on their friends floor, then force them to wash their friends dishes right before their friends walk in the door. when their friend comes home. Then, have their friend walk in and yell "What the fuck did you do!!!!????"
You theory predicts that near all 1000 people will assume their friend is yelling at them for washing dishes without having the slightest clue that they are yelling about them shitting on the floor.
That absolute absurdity of that prediction should tell you that your theory of human psychology is completely wrong. Truly, as wrong as any theory of human thought and behavior could possibly be.
Furthermore humans don't operate rationally most of the time. We behave emotionally at base.
Emotions and rationality are not opposites. We behave to avoid things that cause us unwanted emotions and to increase positive emotions. Punishments are, by definition, things that cause us unwanted emotions. Thus, we behave to optimize the net effect of various punishments and rewards.
It doesn't matter whether people are perfect at estimating the outcomes of their actions. As long as they are merely better than chance at predicting which actions are punishes and which are rewarded, a punishment will reduce the probability of an action.
There is really no other way to explain the Trump phenomenon for instance unless that were so. People want to be selfish, to be superior, to be better. We are among the best discriminating animals in the world. Inclusion, being part of something is much more difficult, but, it is what works without excessive biological costs, loss of life, demand for replacement, etc., in large groups. After all we are social animals.
Great. All of this speaks to why the punishment of prison would deter crime. Selfish motives are very well served by avoiding having oneself imprisoned, having all one's social ties severed, one's ability to control one's body taken away, one's safety put in constant danger, etc..
What we are talking about is the push pull between individual preservation and group continuation. One demands instinctive, emotive based, actions whilst the other depends on learned and patterned, thought out, activity. The latter is much more difficult to sustain, but, it is the only one that permits us to exist without playing Cain and Abel tragedies all the time.
Punishment operates heavily on the most base emotional and selfish level. That is why it works so well. Of course, it doesn't always prevent the action it is intended to. But it reduces its prevalence. If every single crime was a pure knee jerk reflex that no one can do anything to avoid, then you'd be right. But they aren't, so you're wrong.
A huge % of crimes involved steps in which deliberate choices and decisions are made that enable or directly cause to future criminal behavior. Plus, even at the non-conscious level, knowledge of punishments creates automatic emotional reactions linked to the idea of and/or the features associated with the crime that make the person less likely to engage in the action, even if they are just reacting to their emotions without deliberative thought.
A person that engages in a crime, despite knowing the punishment, is someone for whom the punishment was not strong enough to outweigh all the forces that favored the action. But for each such person, there are many more for whom that same punishment was sufficient to deter the action, and without that deterrent they would also have committed the crime. Every actions we want to deter in others in multiply determined. For some, the factors favoring it are too great for any potential punishment to deter them. For others, they gain so little by the action that they wouldn't engage in it, even without any criminal punishment. For all others, there is a continuum of punishment levels that would be sufficient under various circumstances to deter the action. There are many people whose potential criminal actions are reduced because the existent punishment they associate with the action are sufficient to override any incentive to engage in them.