Donald Trump's Stock Market

[Elixir]

Well, folks, here we are, a quarter of the way through Cheato's first full calendar year in office.
And the stock market has put up its first losing quarter since 2015...



Of course we don't see Cheato manning up and taking "credit" for it, quick though he was to seize credit for continuing an 8-year trend under Obama... .
It is not clear that he did one damn thing to enhance any of the underlying economic foundational factors contributing to the long term bull market, but there is no mistaking that his empty-headed blabbering about trade wars and actual wars is contributing to this pullback.

I am wondering a few things:
How far will it fall?
How long will a losing interval have to last before anyone in the Trump camp starts to wonder if electing that moron was really a good idea, fiscally speaking?
6 months?
A year?
2 years?
Does it matter at all how severe the losses are?
Will Trump come out and somehow blame Hillary or Obama for it?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The economy is awesome. It was in full on recession in January 2017, but in full blown economic boom right now. All because of Trump.

At least 1 in 4 Americans believes this.

 

[Elixir]

The economy is awesome. It was in full on recession in January 2017, but in full blown economic boom right now.

You didn't answer any of my questions. How big a "boom" can we withstand? How big a "boom" can we expect?

All because of Trump.

Well duh, as long as it's a "boom".

At least 1 in 4 Americans believes this.

Actually it seems to be about 2 out of 5. Miss Betsy D. is dong a helluva job.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Fake news. The stock market is up 10,000 points and everybody in America has had their salary doubled. Also, Rosie O'Donnell is a pig.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

Trade war fears and a presidential attack on Amazon rocked Wall Street

The Dow closed down 459 points on Monday. The Nasdaq plunged almost 3% and dropped into the red for the year. Heavy selling in tech stocks left the Nasdaq just shy of correction territory, 10% below its all-time closing high.

At one point, the Dow was down as much as 758 points. Market analysts blamed the sell-off on the first day of the second quarter on concerns about trade tensions and President Trump's attacks on Amazon.

Amazon (AMZN), one of the biggest drivers of the 2017 market rally, tumbled 5%, wiping out more than $36 billion of its market value.

Trump once again accused Amazon of taking advantage of the US Postal Service, and he suggested that Amazon does not pay its fair share of tax.

In fact, Amazon pays the same lower rate that the post office charges other bulk shippers, and it collects sales tax in every state that charges it. Amazon does not collect sales tax on purchases made from third-party vendors.

"You've got the president of the United States attacking a single company over what he considers to be unfair practices," said Ian Winer, head of equities at Wedbush Securities.
Amazon wasn't the only tech stock in trouble. Tesla (TSLA), Netflix (NFLX) and Cisco (CSCO) all dropped by at least 4%. Intel (INTC) plunged 6% on a Bloomberg News report that Apple plans to switch to its own chips. Almost every stock in the Nasdaq 100 lost ground.

"When investors see market leaders suddenly stumble, they become more cautious about the entire group," said Kate Warne, investment strategist at Edward Jones.

Wall Street is also fretting about rising trade tensions, especially with China. Beijing responded to Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs on Monday by following through on its threat to impose tariffs on $3 billion of US imports. The tariffs apply to 128 products, ranging from pork and meat to steel pipes.

Trump plans to place additional tariffs on about $50 billion worth of Chinese goods — and Beijing has promised to respond.

http://money.cnn.com/2018/04/02/investing/dow-jones-nasdaq-stocks-amazon/index.html

 

[Elixir]

"You've got the president of the United States attacking a single company over what he considers to be unfair practices,"

Bullshit. Cheato knows that Amazon's practices are no more unfair than any other bulk shipper's practices - and NONE of them are as "unfair" as Trump's own treatment of contractors, renters etc.
He is attacking Bezos because Bezos owns the Washington Post, and the Washington Post publishes facts about Trump that Trump would rather keep as hidden as his tax returns.
But Trump is a cunning fat asshole, and knows that the idiots who support him will believe him if he lies to them about the unfairness of Amazon's practices vis-a-vis the Post Office.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

"You've got the president of the United States attacking a single company over what he considers to be unfair practices,"

Bullshit. Cheato knows that Amazon's practices are no more unfair than any other bulk shipper's practices - and NONE of them are as "unfair" as Trump's own treatment of contractors, renters etc.
He is attacking Bezos because Bezos owns the Washington Post, and the Washington Post publishes facts about Trump that Trump would rather keep as hidden as his tax returns.
But Trump is a cunning fat asshole, and knows that the idiots who support him will believe him if he lies to them about the unfairness of Amazon's practices vis-a-vis the Post Office.

Interesting. People need to know about this.

 

[RVonse]

I am wondering a few things:
How far will it fall?
How long will a losing interval have to last before anyone in the Trump camp starts to wonder if electing that moron was really a good idea, fiscally speaking?
6 months?
A year?
2 years?
Does it matter at all how severe the losses are?
Will Trump come out and somehow blame Hillary or Obama for it?

It will be interesting. Even before Trump took office I thought the stock market was due for a correction. Then all the positive Trump expectations caused it to start rising after he took office. And then there were the tax cuts, which I thought at the time were totally unnecessary like pouring gas on an already over heated market.

In the final analysis, my guess is that the tax cuts are going to balance the negative trends of the tarriff talk and interest hikes. So probably a lot of volatility but no real growth or decline. Which if that happens, will actually be a good thing for this country. Because the market will end up more normalized while other structural changes will finally become addressed.

One thing I am pretty sure is that there will not be a huge lasting sell off. Because before that happens the plunge protection team will get involved. But there could stiil be a dollar crises although a low probability there as well.

I know the Trump haters really dont want to hear this....but he really is starting to make America great again.

 

[Ford]

I know the Trump haters really dont want to hear this....but he really is starting to make America great again.

The thing is that in addition to the tax cuts, his administration is setting about knocking out all the regulations that were put in place after the last financial crisis. We've seen this movie over and over again. Every time we "unleash capitalism" without any oversight it comes crashing down a few years later, and Trump has put the worst "unleash capitalism" actors in positions of power.

 

[Axulus]

One thing I am pretty sure is that there will not be a huge lasting sell off. Because before that happens the plunge protection team will get involved.

Lol, you can't be serious. You need to stop listening to cranks.

 

[Axulus]

We should all be hoping for a sharp correction in the 20-30% range and a slowdown in the economy, and an uptick in consumer prices due to the tariffs right around mid-term elections. Support for the bankrupt Republican party needs to be decimated.

 

[RVonse]

One thing I am pretty sure is that there will not be a huge lasting sell off. Because before that happens the plunge protection team will get involved.

Lol, you can't be serious. You need to stop listening to cranks.

Yes. Do you consider Paul Craig Roberts a crank?
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2018/02/12/financial-markets-still-exist/

He was assistant treasury secretary in Reagans cabinet. So I am guessing probably has more real experience in the federal treasury operations than you do.

 

[RVonse]

We should all be hoping for a sharp correction in the 20-30% range and a slowdown in the economy, and an uptick in consumer prices due to the tariffs right around mid-term elections. Support for the bankrupt Republican party needs to be decimated.

So you are a democrat now?

 

[Axulus]

We should all be hoping for a sharp correction in the 20-30% range and a slowdown in the economy, and an uptick in consumer prices due to the tariffs right around mid-term elections. Support for the bankrupt Republican party needs to be decimated.

So you are a democrat now?

I'm a never Trumper for sure, and the Democrats are far more preferable than the current lot of Republicans, the Republicans who refuse to stand up to the madness.

 

[Axulus]

One thing I am pretty sure is that there will not be a huge lasting sell off. Because before that happens the plunge protection team will get involved.

Lol, you can't be serious. You need to stop listening to cranks.

Yes. Do you consider Paul Craig Roberts a crank?
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2018/02/12/financial-markets-still-exist/

He was assistant treasury secretary in Reagans cabinet. So I am guessing probably has more real experience in the federal treasury operations than you do.

His quote here from your link:

in February 2018 the Fed is rigging the stock market by purchasing S&P equity index futures in order to arrest stock market declines driven by fundamentals, and to push prices back up in keeping with a decade of money creation.

Proves beyond all doubt he is a crank. There is no evidence this is occurring (the purchasing of index futures) and is a common myth perpetuated by anti-government conspiracists. If you have the proof that this is actually happening, I'll listen, but I'm not holding my breath.

Look how easily he jumps to conclusions with scant evidence:

Who would be purchasing S&P equity futures when the market is collapsing from under them? The most likely answer we can come up with is that the Fed is acting for the PPT.

Uh, no, there is no reason to think that is the most likely answer. This is exactly the thought pattern of a conspiracy theorist: find something that is odd or difficult to explain, and then jump to one's preferred conclusion as the only answer.

 

[RVonse]

I know the Trump haters really dont want to hear this....but he really is starting to make America great again.

The thing is that in addition to the tax cuts, his administration is setting about knocking out all the regulations that were put in place after the last financial crisis. We've seen this movie over and over again. Every time we "unleash capitalism" without any oversight it comes crashing down a few years later, and Trump has put the worst "unleash capitalism" actors in positions of power.

I do agree with you on the banking regulations. Makes no sense to allow banks to gamble with assets IMO.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

One thing I am pretty sure is that there will not be a huge lasting sell off. Because before that happens the plunge protection team will get involved.

Lol, you can't be serious. You need to stop listening to cranks.

Yes. Do you consider Paul Craig Roberts a crank?
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2018/02/12/financial-markets-still-exist/

He was assistant treasury secretary in Reagans cabinet. So I am guessing probably has more real experience in the federal treasury operations than you do.

Yes, he's a crank. He either was always crazy or became crazy after his job. During the Bush administration 9/11 troofers were turning to him for his claims about fema camps etc.

 

[Horatio Parker]

Paul Craig Roberts may be a crank, but he's not alone in claiming that the financial markets are managed.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4146462-bona-fide-financial-markets-still-exist

 

[funinspace]

Yes. Do you consider Paul Craig Roberts a crank?
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2018/02/12/financial-markets-still-exist/

He was assistant treasury secretary in Reagans cabinet. So I am guessing probably has more real experience in the federal treasury operations than you do.

Yes, he's a crank. He either was always crazy or became crazy after his job. During the Bush administration 9/11 troofers were turning to him for his claims about fema camps etc.

Yep, PCR fell off the deep end at some point.

Beyond his 9/11 conspiracy notions...
http://www.patheos.com/blogs/dispatches/2015/01/20/ron-paul-is-just-asking-questions-of-course/

Last week, one of Ron Paul’s websites published a column by 9/11 truther and unhinged wingnut Paul Craig Roberts claiming that the attack on Charlie Hebdo was a false flag operation carried out by the American government to punish France for not agreeing with much of our foreign policy. Ron Paul says it’s okay because they’re “just asking questions” and searching for truth.

At the same time, of course the markets are impacted by trillions of half a dozen major central banks quantitative easing operations. Hell, the BOJ alone is one of the most blatant.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-150-billion-etf-binge-seen-slowing-next-year

The BOJ started buying ETFs in 2010, with Governor Haruhiko Kuroda later accelerating purchases as part of an unprecedented stimulus package aimed at revitalizing the economy. The central bank had spent $150 billion on Japanese ETFs as of Dec. 8. It owned 74 percent of the market at the end of October, up from 65 percent a year earlier, according to Investment Trusts Association figures, BOJ disclosures and data compiled by Bloomberg.

The US FR doesn't so much as buy stocks/securities, but it doesn't mean it hasn't impacted markets. Now is this 'managing the markets'? That is harder to describe. Either way the FR started a very slow reduction of the QE assets they picked up during the financial crisis. I think their balance sheets have shrunk by a tiny $100 billion so far.

 

[funinspace]

I am wondering a few things:
How far will it fall?

Yes. However, my SWAG is that this will continue being a turbulent year, and we could easily see a further 10% decline before this is over, assuming that at the end of market show isn't a looming recession. The funky part is that recessions aren't often foreshadowed by stock market declines, they usually seem to trail the official beginning of a recession.

One of the other factors that is only occasionally mentioned, is that within the totality of the major world's central bankers, their quantitative easing flows have started to decelerate. See chart from:
https://www.ft.com/content/d6a55960-f875-3a68-a227-97a7c41c5b9c

Or this article talks about it:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnma...-2018-quantitative-tightening/3/#69576f60a0ef

Do I think the economy can actually stand three rate hikes this year? Without risking a recession? I think it’s likely that it can.

But nobody has any data based on real experience, which can predict what will occur if there is effective quantitative tightening at the same time. This is a real-time experiment.

In 2018, there will be almost $1 trillion less global QE than in 2017. What does that mean?

We don’t know—and by we I mean you and I, and all of our central bankers. I don’t much care what their models say, because their models have been continually, disastrously wrong.

How long will a losing interval have to last before anyone in the Trump camp starts to wonder if electing that moron was really a good idea, fiscally speaking?
6 months?
A year?
2 years?

Buzz look, an alien!

Does it matter at all how severe the losses are?

Yes, and no. FFvC is already deeply unpopular. This already bodes well for a blue wave this fall. If the markets do a deep dive (say 20% or more, including current losses), then I'd expect the Repug losses to be a little worse than they are already looking. From the data, I don't think many Trumpsters have much in 401k's/IRAs to really care about market headlines. However, a steady stream of weaker economic news could lower Repug enthusiasm; and more frustrated independent voters,should encourage them to vote.

Will Trump come out and somehow blame Hillary or Obama for it?

Will the sun rise from the east tomorrow?