Earth's magnetic field currently weakening 10,000x faster than expected

[bilby]

In actual fact if the Earth's magnetic field flipped over now then the main problem would be the fate of modern technology.

I think I must be having a premature senior moment. Why would there be a risk to modern technology? I understand that magnetism and electricity interact... but why should my cell phone, for example, give to shakes about the orientation of the planet's magnetosphere, provided it exists? Is it strong enough to matter if it even ceased to exist?

ETA: Sorry to disrupt you guy's humorous ramblings with srs bsns.

Opinion is divided on how serious the effect might be, but the main risk is the effect of solar flares, particularly on long power lines. The magnetosphere generally shunts the worst of the charged particle bombardment from such flares out of the way, some passing by the Earth entirely, and the bulk of the remainder to the magnetic poles, where they enter the atmosphere and cause aurorae; the small amount that reach the ground in normal circumstances usually do so in areas where population is sparse, and do little damage.

There have been occasions in the past when sufficient flux has reached ground level in inhabited latitudes to induce currents sufficient to shut down power grids; and if the magnetic field was to drop to zero for an appreciable length of time, we would be much more exposed to CMEs and other solar flare activity; how damaging that would be is not well understood; many think that the induced currents would be too small to matter except in very long conductors - such as interstate power transmission lines; others speculate that even small circuits, such as are found in silicon chips, could be sufficiently affected to fry many or even most such devices - the conductors connected to such chips are short, but the current required to fry them can be pretty low; the total ground level flux we might see could vary hugely from flare to flare, and little real-world data is available from the few decades since chips became ubiquitous, so it is difficult to make a confident guess.

The Sci-Fi doom scenario is, IMO, overplayed; but certainly there is the potential for considerable disruption to power supplies worldwide.

Some have even suggested health effects up to and including death from our exposure to the ionising radiation from such flares; however the increase in radiation levels above background at ground level would be tiny - the atmosphere itself is adequate protection - so that is almost certainly not an issue; the ionosphere would be seriously influenced, but as this is not the 1940s any more, and most radio communications no longer rely on stable ionospheric conditions, this would likely be unimportant.

It would take on the order of hundreds of thousands of years for the effects on the composition of the atmosphere to become significant - which also has not stopped Sci-Fi writers from penning doomsday tracts about all the oxygen being stripped from the atmosphere, or converted to ozone. None of these ideas are realistic.

(Nevertheless, I suggest that if the field does collapse, we should all go outside and wave fridge magnets over our heads to compensate).

 

[Emily Lake]

Thank you Bilby, for a wonderfully educational reply. That was exactly what I wanted to know!

 

[steve_bnk]

When the field weakens the Mole People come out of their subterranean lairs.

 

[Lugubert]

Yes, it does and has. There is uncertainty as to how long it takes and the results of such a flip. The greatest science worry is that it will spark a massive zombie apocalypse.

We will have to reverse the color scheme on all the compass needles.

The Chinese must be on to something. All my Swedish compass needles use red for north, but my Chinese pocket thing has north white.

The north pole of a magnet is attracted to a south pole of another magnet. If you imagine the Earth as a magnet then the north pole of a magnet will point to the Earth's south pole which is currently located near the North pole.

A blatant attempt at hemisphereism. Compasses point north and that's the way it's always been.

All compasses I've seen are totally unbiased: they point 50% to the north (south pole) and 50% to the south (north pole).

 

[rjh01]

In actual fact if the Earth's magnetic field flipped over now then the main problem would be the fate of modern technology.

I think I must be having a premature senior moment. Why would there be a risk to modern technology? I understand that magnetism and electricity interact... but why should my cell phone, for example, give to shakes about the orientation of the planet's magnetosphere, provided it exists? Is it strong enough to matter if it even ceased to exist?

ETA: Sorry to disrupt you guy's humorous ramblings with srs bsns.

To add to Bilby's reply to this post we know that the change will not significantly impact on other life as it has happened many times. It has not happened in modern times so the effect on technology is not fully known. We could be lucky and just have to replace a few things and teach people that the north of a compass now points south. Or it could send us back to the 19th century. Or somewhere between.

 

[barbos]

Opinion is divided on how serious the effect might be, but the main risk is the effect of solar flares, particularly on long power lines. The magnetosphere generally shunts the worst of the charged particle bombardment from such flares out of the way, some passing by the Earth entirely, and the bulk of the remainder to the magnetic poles, where they enter the atmosphere and cause aurorae; the small amount that reach the ground in normal circumstances usually do so in areas where population is sparse, and do little damage........

This is completely incorrect.
Earth magnetic field does not protect power lines from solar flares at all, so the loss of field will not cause any more troubles for long power lines.
In fact the opposite is most likely true - magnetosphere makes flares cause more damage on power lines.

 

[bilby]

Opinion is divided on how serious the effect might be, but the main risk is the effect of solar flares, particularly on long power lines. The magnetosphere generally shunts the worst of the charged particle bombardment from such flares out of the way, some passing by the Earth entirely, and the bulk of the remainder to the magnetic poles, where they enter the atmosphere and cause aurorae; the small amount that reach the ground in normal circumstances usually do so in areas where population is sparse, and do little damage........

This is completely incorrect.
Earth magnetic field does not protect power lines from solar flares at all, so the loss of field will not cause any more troubles for long power lines.
In fact the opposite is most likely true - magnetosphere makes flares cause more damage on power lines.

Hmmm. Should I take the word of a guy on the Internet whose credentials are unknown, or should I believe NASA?

... at the surface of the Earth we are well protected from the effects of solar flares and other solar activity by the Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere.

http://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/sftheory/spaceweather.htm

 

[barbos]

This is completely incorrect.
Earth magnetic field does not protect power lines from solar flares at all, so the loss of field will not cause any more troubles for long power lines.
In fact the opposite is most likely true - magnetosphere makes flares cause more damage on power lines.

Hmmm. Should I take the word of a guy on the Internet whose credentials are unknown, or should I believe NASA?

... at the surface of the Earth we are well protected from the effects of solar flares and other solar activity by the Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere.

http://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/sftheory/spaceweather.htm

It does not mention power grid at all.
Yes, field protects living things from the charged particle flux, but flux itself does no damage to the grid. It's magnetic field disturbance which does the damage and this disturbance happens regardless.
As far as technology concerned they usually mention satellites which can be potentially fried by solar flares without magnetosphere protection. But power grid has no protection.

 

[bilby]

Hmmm. Should I take the word of a guy on the Internet whose credentials are unknown, or should I believe NASA?

... at the surface of the Earth we are well protected from the effects of solar flares and other solar activity by the Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere.

http://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/sftheory/spaceweather.htm

It does not mention power grid at all.

Apart from in the eighth paragraph, which begins:

Another major problem that has occurred during geomagnetic storms has been the temporary loss of electrical power over a large region. The best known case of this occurred in 1989 in Quebec.

 

[barbos]

Hmmm. Should I take the word of a guy on the Internet whose credentials are unknown, or should I believe NASA?

... at the surface of the Earth we are well protected from the effects of solar flares and other solar activity by the Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere.

http://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/sftheory/spaceweather.htm

It does not mention power grid at all.

Apart from in the eighth paragraph, which begins:

Another major problem that has occurred during geomagnetic storms has been the temporary loss of electrical power over a large region. The best known case of this occurred in 1989 in Quebec.

Yes, solar flares cause that, but that's not what we are arguing here.
Question is whether or not magnetic field of the earth protects us from that and the answer is NO.

 

[steve_bnk]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetic_storm#Interactions_with_planetary_processes

 

[barbos]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetic_storm#Interactions_with_planetary_processes

That's correct.