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Election 2020 - Interesting Polls

Cheerful Charlie

Cheerful Charlie

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Tracking the polls about November 2020 elections, and Trump's re-election chances.

Quinnipiac, October 23, 2019
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3645

...
Approval - Disapproval

Men 45% - 49%
Women 30% - 61%
All 38% - 58%
18 - 34 30% - 61%
...

Women are not going to be voting to re-elect Trump it seems. Nor young voters. I am feeling good about the upcoming elections.
 
 
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/12/mor...-is-a-reality/

...
“Morning Joe” hosts Joe Scarborough and Mike Brezinski kicked off Friday morning with bad news for Donald Trump about recent polling in the battleground Rust Belt states showing his re-election prospects crumbling even if he does survive impeachment ouster.
“You go through new Morning Consult Trump approval ratings, and it really shows how unpopular he is,” host Scarborough began. “And in some of these states they show how impeachment is really either keeping him from gaining momentum with all the money he’s wasting and it’s not moving anything.”


​
“Ohio, he’s minus five,” he explained. “Pennsylvania, minus seven, underwater. Iowa underwater, minus 13. Minnesota, underwater, minus 13. And the biggest two for last: Wisconsin, minus 14 and Michigan minus 14.”
...

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

----

It is looking grim for der Trumpster 11 months before election day. The electoral votes for these states is a total of 80 votes. Trump leads in Texas by only 3% and Florida by 1%

Sorry Derec, Trump flipped three states by only 77,704 votes to win. He is losing those three states and more swings states by double digits. Hoping for a similar squeaker to hand Trump the win this time is so very futile. HC did win the popular vote by 3 million votes. The next Democratic candidate will do as well or better.
 
I am not a Trump fan. Just saying that you should not be counting your chickens before they hatch.
 
For the 2020 elections, I see several categories of voters to watch for.

Women voters.
Swing state voters.
Independent voters.
Younger voters.

Other factors.
Track records. Trump didn't have one in 2016. Now he does. Not a good one.
Turn out. Down in 2016. Up sharply in 2018. Doubtful it will drop in Trump's favor in 2020.
Younger voters voted more in 2018 than older voters. Younger voters do not like Trump.
Independents went for trump in 2016. He is polling poorly so far with them. Makes re-election hard.
Old voters supported him by large margins in 2016. He has lost a lot of them to date.

I am just following the bread crumb trails, rather than bare horse race polls. Which do not really bode well for Trump either.
Like Derec, many Republicans are hoping that the polls are wrong again. A deeper dive into what is going on seems to tell us that is not going to happen again, unless some big black swan event occurs.

As far as I can see, Trump fatigue is setting in for the election and that isn't going well for Trump's re-election chances. We will see GOP wedge issues predominate in 2020. Abortion, 2 Amendment, The Wall and immigrants, homosexuality, and "Socialism! Socialism!"
That will play well with Trump's core but may play poorly outside that core. Trump and GOP fatigue.
 
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/12/cy...e-midwest-but-they-could-now-doom-him-report/

...
‘Cynical’ voters may have won Trump the Midwest — but they could now doom him: report

“As it turns out, while people who liked Trump and didn’t like Clinton voted heavily for Trump (as you’d expect), the current president also had an edge among people who disliked both him and Clinton,” wrote Philip Bump in the Washington Post. “He won those voters by 17 points nationally — and by margins in the closest states that were likely enough to hand him the electoral college victory he needed.” He additionally won “cynical” voters by 37 points in Wisconsin, 25 points in Pennsylvania and 21 points in Michigan — all of which had extremely close final results.

“The split between those who like or don’t like the candidates is remarkably similar to 2016. Trump is the only candidate liked by 36 percent of respondents, same as the percentage of voters three years ago. Biden is the only one liked by 41 percent — the same percentage of exit poll respondents who said the same of Clinton. The group of like-neithers is slightly smaller, at 12 percent,” wrote Bump. However, Quinnipiac now shows that “cynical” voters prefer Biden by 33 points nationally — nearly twice the amount Trump won them by three years ago.
...

This warms the cockles of my heart bigly.
 
The polls are meaningless if the repubs, russians, and 1% control the voting machines and can disenfranchise voters on a whim.

Sent from my LG-TP450 using Tapatalk
 
We control the voting booths! Turn out and vote this asshole out of office! The polls mean nothing, just go out and vote.
 
I think it's cute that
a) you think your vote counts (hint: it is not counted the same as other votes)
b) you think that him losing the election this year will turn out any differently than when he lost the election to Hillary last time
 
Gun Nut said:
I think it's cute that
a) you think your vote counts (hint: it is not counted the same as other votes)
b) you think that him losing the election this year will turn out any differently than when he lost the election to Hillary last time
Click to expand...
That's nice. And actually, my vote does count more, being Battleground State and all. My vote for the House Representative is solidly gerrymandered, so my vote won't matter there.
 
https://thehill.com/homenews/admini...nt-of-americans-say-trump-should-be-impeached
...
A Fox News poll released Sunday found that half of Americans say President Trump should be impeached and removed from office.

Fifty percent of respondents supported the president’s impeachment and removal, while 4 percent backed impeachment but not removal. Forty-one percent opposed impeachment.

The statistics are largely unchanged from Fox News’s poll in late October that found 49 percent backing impeachment and removal, 4 percent supporting only impeachment, and 41 percent opposing both.
...
-----

I don't suppose that the 50% who want him impeached and removed will be voting for him in 2020.
 
fromderinside said:
Not counting. Just reading poster tea leaves. Counter to what you claim those those potential chickens apparently make you nervous Derec.
Click to expand...

Not at all. I am just saying that many people were just as certain in 2016. It is still early days. Democrats may nominate somebody unelectable like Sanders. Economy might enter recession and doom it for Trump. And speaking of him, he may not even be on the ballot come November. Too many imponderables to be certain of any outcome.
 
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...e-cities-polling-analysis-shows-idUSKBN20D1EG

Reuters
...
If the trend lasts until Election Day on Nov. 3, it would be a reversal from the 2016 election when rural turnout outpaced voting in urban areas, helping Trump narrowly win the White House.

The finding, based on responses from more than 88,000 U.S. adults who took the online poll from August to December 2015 or from August to December 2019, suggests that the “Blue Wave,” a swell of anti-Trump activism that followed his entry into the White House in 2017, is still rolling across the country’s largest population centers.

Even as Trump commands rock-solid support among Republicans, voters’ interest in going to the polls appears to be growing faster among those who disapprove of Trump than among those who approve of him, according to experts who reviewed the data.
The advantage in urban political engagement extends deep into the most competitive battleground states that Trump won by razor-thin margins four years ago, the data shows.

In large urban areas of the upper Midwest, a region that includes swing states Michigan and Wisconsin, for example, the number of people who said they were “certain” to vote in the upcoming presidential election rose by 10 percentage points to 67% compared with survey responses from 2015.
...

Trump is becoming toxic to many Americans and it is going to be an issue come election day.
 
Derec said:
fromderinside said:
Not counting. Just reading poster tea leaves. Counter to what you claim those those potential chickens apparently make you nervous Derec.
Click to expand...

Not at all. I am just saying that many people were just as certain in 2016. It is still early days. Democrats may nominate somebody unelectable like Sanders. Economy might enter recession and doom it for Trump. And speaking of him, he may not even be on the ballot come November. Too many imponderables to be certain of any outcome.
Click to expand...
This inability to recognize that people saw what happened in 2016 or to believe that people would fail to change behavior after such failures seems rather dire projection.

There is a fairly strong push against apathy and complacency in discussions on Bernie Sanders. Now, with Bloomberg, not so much. Bloomberg will drive people away from the polls actively. People will show up to vote for Bernie even if they think their vote doesn't matter at all, at this point. The only acceptable victory is overwhelming victory because ratfuckers are gonna ratfuck.
 
I think that the fiasco of 2016 where indeed a very few votes spelled the difference between a good president and an awful president is going to be on a lot of people's minds. People who stayed home thinking Clinton had it in the bag, or voted for Jill Stein in a fit of spite will think carefully about the choice of perhaps a half a loaf, Sanders, and a warm cow flop, Trump.

There will be voters energized, though possibly reluctantly in states that nearing election day have become swing states. Which may extend to states like Florida and Texas. "Let's go vote and stick it to Trump!". I am very interested in seeing how all of this plays out.

"Anger is an energy! Anger is an energy! "Anger is an energy!"
- Public Image Limited
 
Cheerful Charlie said:
I think that the fiasco of 2016 where indeed a very few votes spelled the difference between a good president and an awful president is going to be on a lot of people's minds. People who stayed home thinking Clinton had it in the bag, or voted for Jill Stein in a fit of spite will think carefully about the choice of perhaps a half a loaf, Sanders, and a warm cow flop, Trump.

There will be voters energized, though possibly reluctantly in states that nearing election day have become swing states. Which may extend to states like Florida and Texas. "Let's go vote and stick it to Trump!". I am very interested in seeing how all of this plays out.

"Anger is an energy! Anger is an energy! "Anger is an energy!"
- Public Image Limited
Click to expand...

libs.jpg
 
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