Falling Homicide Clearance Rates

[Coleman Smith]

Six Reasons the Murder Clearance Rate Is at an All-Time Low

For the past 60 years, U.S. detectives have gotten worse at one of the most basic jobs of law enforcement.

www.theatlantic.com

"In the 1960s, more than 90 percent of all homicides were “cleared” by police, with an arrest or the identification of a dead suspect. But the clearance rate has declined in each of the past six decades. In the most recent data available from the FBI, the clearance rate hit an all-time low of just over 50 percent. That means that about half of all murders in the United States today go unsolved."

U.S. Murder Clearance Rates Among Lowest in the World | Criminal Legal News

www.criminallegalnews.org

"Statistically, U.S. law enforcement agencies are the worst crime solvers in the Western world. According to official data, there are arrests for about one-eighth of burglaries, about one-third of rapes, and about two-thirds of murders. But official methods of reporting can distort and exaggerate murder clearance rates, and the official clearance rate has held steady for three decades, despite strong declines in the rate murders are being committed."

Sharp fall in Met's conviction rate for rape and murder

Force’s officer numbers also drops below 30,000 for first time in 15 years

www.theguardian.com

"The rate for murder, which once stood at nine out of 10 solved, is now one in three unsolved. The rate for rape has declined in two years, from 13% to 7%. The fall in sanction detections, comes as violent crime is rising."

 

[bilby]

How much of this is due to an improvement in the quality of convictions, as forensics has improved?

It's much easier to clear a homicide case by locking up some guy who you beat a confession out of, when his lawyers can't use DNA evidence to show that someone completely different must have been handling the murder weapon. Or when mobile phone data places the suspect in a different city at the time.

These weren't a big problem back in the 1970s. You just rounded up the usual suspects, bullied a confession out of one, and closed the case (leaving the real criminal at large).

I'm inclined to believe that the rate of correct clearances hasn't changed much; But the number of incorrectly cleared cases has dropped substantially, because detectives are getting better at their jobs.

Certainly a falling clearance rate isn't evidence that investigators are getting less goodwill at their jobs.

"... the test of police efficiency is the absence of crime and disorder, and not the visible evidence of police action in dealing with them." - Robert Peel, founder of modern policing, 1829.

 

[Coleman Smith]

I have no evidence to support this but I suspect that True crime TV has helped some criminals avoid arrest and conviction because they learn the investigative techniques and how to avoid them.

Examples :

If you take your phone to a crime scene you might as well sign you name at the scene.

If you use a "burner phone" and don't burn it your DNA indicates that you are probably the owner.

If you buy a burner phone with your credit or debit card u r fucked.

Don't Talk to The Police

Reid Interrogation Technique

Use a non logging VPN to cover you IP.

Use a non tracking Web browser to avoid an adverse search history like Duck Duck Go.

For back ground information I spent part of my time in the claims business either handling or supervising the handling of claims for insurance companies that insured police departmens.

The claims consisted of everything from simple automobile accidents to patrol officers operating burglary rings out of their patrol cars.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

There's also the drug war mess. Most homicides used to be for pretty obvious reasons, but now a lot of them are criminal on criminal--there's no obvious suspect to investigate. And snitches get stitches--people in such situations are far less likely to be willing to talk. I don't think the true crime stuff makes that big a difference because that only applies to well-planned murders and most aren't.

 

[Coleman Smith]

I don't think the true crime stuff makes that big a difference because that only applies to well-planned murders and most aren't.

I agree that it may not make much of a difference, I just believe, admittedly with out evidence, that it may be involved at some level.

 

[bilby]

I don't think the true crime stuff makes that big a difference because that only applies to well-planned murders and most aren't.

I agree that it may not make much of a difference, I just believe, admittedly with out evidence, that it may be involved at some level.

I suspect that anyone who relies on stuff they learned off a TV show to do anything, is likely to find that TV shows are a poor guide to reality (and reality TV shows, ironically, even more so).

If you're hoping to use stuff you learn from a TV "true crime" docudrama to get away with murder, I rather suspect that the homicide squad will not be noticeably inconvenienced by your "expertise" in forensics.

 

[Coleman Smith]

U may be correct.

What is your opinion about the cause of the falling homicide clearance rates?

 

[Politesse]

There's also the drug war mess. Most homicides used to be for pretty obvious reasons, but now a lot of them are criminal on criminal--there's no obvious suspect to investigate. And snitches get stitches--people in such situations are far less likely to be willing to talk. I don't think the true crime stuff makes that big a difference because that only applies to well-planned murders and most aren't.

When was that ??

I might buy that criminal on criminal murders were less likely to be investigated before the rise of formalized police services, but not that they didn't occur. "Thief" is quietly as old a profession as "Sex Worker".

 

[Politesse]

Six Reasons the Murder Clearance Rate Is at an All-Time Low

For the past 60 years, U.S. detectives have gotten worse at one of the most basic jobs of law enforcement.

www.theatlantic.com

"In the 1960s, more than 90 percent of all homicides were “cleared” by police, with an arrest or the identification of a dead suspect. But the clearance rate has declined in each of the past six decades. In the most recent data available from the FBI, the clearance rate hit an all-time low of just over 50 percent. That means that about half of all murders in the United States today go unsolved."

U.S. Murder Clearance Rates Among Lowest in the World | Criminal Legal News

www.criminallegalnews.org

"Statistically, U.S. law enforcement agencies are the worst crime solvers in the Western world. According to official data, there are arrests for about one-eighth of burglaries, about one-third of rapes, and about two-thirds of murders. But official methods of reporting can distort and exaggerate murder clearance rates, and the official clearance rate has held steady for three decades, despite strong declines in the rate murders are being committed."

Sharp fall in Met's conviction rate for rape and murder

Force’s officer numbers also drops below 30,000 for first time in 15 years

www.theguardian.com

"The rate for murder, which once stood at nine out of 10 solved, is now one in three unsolved. The rate for rape has declined in two years, from 13% to 7%. The fall in sanction detections, comes as violent crime is rising."

One thing I learned from forensics classes in school is that all of our fancy techniques are, for the most part, more useful for ensuring convictions by scaring the accused into a confession, than for "solving crimes" as such; if there is no suspect, most of our technology will not help to identify one.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I don't think the true crime stuff makes that big a difference because that only applies to well-planned murders and most aren't.

I agree that it may not make much of a difference, I just believe, admittedly with out evidence, that it may be involved at some level.

I suspect that anyone who relies on stuff they learned off a TV show to do anything, is likely to find that TV shows are a poor guide to reality (and reality TV shows, ironically, even more so).

If you're hoping to use stuff you learn from a TV "true crime" docudrama to get away with murder, I rather suspect that the homicide squad will not be noticeably inconvenienced by your "expertise" in forensics.

The docudramas won't tell you how to get away with it but can alert you to types of evidence the police could be gathering.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

One thing I learned from forensics classes in school is that all of our fancy techniques are, for the most part, more useful for ensuring convictions by scaring the accused into a confession, than for "solving crimes" as such; if there is no suspect, most of our technology will not help to identify one.

Other than DNA I definitely agree. No logical suspects and 99% of our tech goes out the window--which is a big part of why criminal-on-criminal homicides are hard to clear. Likewise, why serial killers usually only get caught when they make a mistake.

 

[Coleman Smith]

One thing I learned from forensics classes in school is that all of our fancy techniques are, for the most part, more useful for ensuring convictions by scaring the accused into a confession, than for "solving crimes" as such; if there is no suspect, most of our technology will not help to identify one.

Joe Kendra Homicide Hunter said on one of his episodes that he had little faith in lie detector test but found them useful because suspects believe in them and many will will confess when they are told that they flunked the test.

 

[bilby]

One thing I learned from forensics classes in school is that all of our fancy techniques are, for the most part, more useful for ensuring convictions by scaring the accused into a confession, than for "solving crimes" as such; if there is no suspect, most of our technology will not help to identify one.

Joe Kendra Homicide Hunter said on one of his episodes that he had little faith in lie detector test but found them useful because suspects believe in them and many will will confess when they are told that they flunked the test.

Polygraph "lie detectors" are almost exclusively an American religion. They don't work, and have been discarded as pointless nonsense everywhere else in the developed world.

But US law enforcement agencies seem to either think that they do work, or at least to find them useful enough for scaring people as to continue using them.

You could get results just as effectively by using tarot or horoscopes to determine when suspects are lying.

 

[Coleman Smith]

One thing I learned from forensics classes in school is that all of our fancy techniques are, for the most part, more useful for ensuring convictions by scaring the accused into a confession, than for "solving crimes" as such; if there is no suspect, most of our technology will not help to identify one.

Joe Kendra Homicide Hunter said on one of his episodes that he had little faith in lie detector test but found them useful because suspects believe in them and many will will confess when they are told that they flunked the test.

Polygraph "lie detectors" are almost exclusively an American religion. They don't work, and have been discarded as pointless nonsense everywhere else in the developed world.

But US law enforcement agencies seem to either think that they do work, or at least to find them useful enough for scaring people as to continue using them.

You could get results just as effectively by using tarot or horoscopes to determine when suspects are lying.

I agree.

I have seen cases where guilty suspects passed the test and innocent people failed.

That's why they are not admissible in court.

I find it interesting that a suspect sitting in interrogation room with a cop is sitting in a room who has been authorized to lie to the suspect by a supreme court decision.

If the cop lies it an interrogation technique.
If the suspect lies it's a felony.

 

[bilby]

If the cop lies it an interrogation technique.
If the suspect lies it's a felony.

Sure; But if the suspect remains silent, he's exercising his rights.

If the cop remains silent, he's refusing to do his job, and will get fired.

 

[Coleman Smith]

If you're hoping to use stuff you learn from a TV "true crime" docudrama to get away with murder, I rather suspect that the homicide squad will not be noticeably inconvenienced by your "expertise" in forensics.

I believe that the best way to avoid an arrest and conviction is to follow the rule, "If you don't want to do the time then don't do the crime."

Age 83,never been arrested and I intend to keep it that way.

I did violate a no left turn sign many years ago with permeation and learned a valuable lesson.

If your going to violate a no left turn sign look in you rear view mirror first because if you don't the patrol officer in the police car behand you will for an adverse opinion of your intellect.

 

[ZiprHead]

The Idaho college student murder case is interesting to me. Four college girls murdered. The motive hasn't been revealed yet but the suspect is in custody. I wonder if he's an incel.

 

[Coleman Smith]

I wonder if he's an incel.

Nancy Grace suggests that he probably is.

He was also attending a class about the feelings that murders endure while committing a crime.
He may have been acting that out in a thrill kill.

The motives may have been concurrent.

Who knows?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I don't think the true crime stuff makes that big a difference because that only applies to well-planned murders and most aren't.

I agree that it may not make much of a difference, I just believe, admittedly with out evidence, that it may be involved at some level.

There is TV in other parts of the world.

 

[steve_bank]

I think you gave to look at the demographics of murder.

In Washington the police report it is generally related to drugs and gangs. Polce are not going to get much help on suspects.

There are now growing random shootings in Western Washington. Cars being shot at on the road for no apparent reasons.

Police are probably overwhelmed, certainly in the Seattle region. Shortage of police, and more are leaving than being hired. Add to that the dropping support for poice i general.

The first few wees of the year have been troubling with murders.

One meric you could look at is the number of poiece per capita in the USA going back 20 or 30 years.

Population growth is a factor. Also average case load for murder detectives in big cities.

In the recent years with COVID and loss of patrol officers Seattle had to put detectives on patrol cars to answer calls.

Now tere are increasing murders where the murderer has no cionnection to those who ar killed. How do you find suspects? Polce ask around if anyone saw anything and they look at available surveillance video.