Gaza after the war

[Derec]

So, with the Israel-Gaza war approaching the 8 month mark, I wanted to talk about what the post-war Gaza might look like.

1. Governance

Who will run Gaza? Palestinian Authority? Hamas? A "unity government" between the two? Israel? Some sort of international force?

I think any solution that leaves Hamas in power will just lead to perpetuation of the cycle of violence. PA would be a possibility but it would require a fundamental reform of PA.

Some sort of international force might be the best outcome, as long as it involves deradicalization of the population. Becuase the moment the internationals leave, we can't have the Strip fall to Hamas (or a group essentially like Hamas) again.

2. Reconstruction

Rebuilding Gaza completely will probably take 20 years or more and will cost tens of billions of dollars. It will probably take close to 5 years to rebuild to the level that would allow some semblance of normal functioning.

What is required

• Clearing the tens of millions of tons of rubble, including unexploded ordinance
• Filling in bomb craters. That will be more difficult for craters that breached Hamas tunnels
• Rebuilding roads and associated infrastructure
• Rebuilding/repairing public buildings including hospitals
• Rebuilding/repairing residential and commercial buildings. Tens of thousands of them are destroyed and further tens of thousands damaged.

The long time horizon and exorbitant cost is another reason why Hamas cannot be allowed any part in running the Strip. What use is spending all that money if in 5 years they decide to attack Israel again?

3. Society

As of now (according to Hamas health ministry data)
- close to 2% of the population is dead of missing
- >4% of the population is wounded
- even Hamas numbers admit that there is a significant gender imbalance in the numbers of dead, mostly due to all the terror fighters dying. They also tend to be young men of marriageable age. This will cause a gender imbalance with many young women not being able to find a spouse.
- significant portion of the population will be homeless for years even after the war ends

The Gazan society will no doubt change due to this war. The direction of that change is unknown. Best case scenario is that they turn away from extremism and terrorism. That's why whoever runs Gaza after the war must implement a deradicalization campaign.

 

[cycomiko]

I think it depends on who helps with the rebuilding. If Israel and the US step up with big $$ and effort to rebuild and then turn it over to a government (whatever that looks like) that we can at least be not hostile to, there might be a chance to keep calm in the future.

If Israel just decides they're done bombing Hamas, regardless of who is in the line of fire, and goes back home and leaves the rebuild to the Palestinians or whoever else in the region wants to help them it's just going to get way worse.

There is no de-radicalization possible after this war unless Israel can get all the settlers out of Gaza and recognize Palestine as it's own country. I'm not commenting philosophically either way on whether Palestine should be a real thing. Pragmatically, the cycle of violence will continue until it's a real thing.

It's possibly already too late and whatever comes after Hamas will be far more extreme.

 

[Harry Bosch]

I think it depends on who helps with the rebuilding. If Israel and the US step up with big $$ and effort to rebuild and then turn it over to a government (whatever that looks like) that we can at least be not hostile to, there might be a chance to keep calm in the future.

If Israel just decides they're done bombing Hamas, regardless of who is in the line of fire, and goes back home and leaves the rebuild to the Palestinians or whoever else in the region wants to help them it's just going to get way worse.

There is no de-radicalization possible after this war unless Israel can get all the settlers out of Gaza and recognize Palestine as it's own country. I'm not commenting philosophically either way on whether Palestine should be a real thing. Pragmatically, the cycle of violence will continue until it's a real thing.

It's possibly already too late and whatever comes after Hamas will be far more extreme.

I agree about the settlers (although they are in the West Bank, not Gaza). And I also think that it's not possible to eliminate Hamas and some kind of cease fire and reconciliation is necessary to bring the hostages back. However, why should Israel help rebuild? Hamas attacked Israel. Brutally attacked. They won't be rebuilding there. I'm not against the US helping with many other countries to help rebuild. But not a dime to hamas. The Hamas leader reportedly has an $11 billion net worth. Let him rebuild.

 

[cycomiko]

Good point about settlers in West Bank versus Gaza. I was thinking of it all as "Palestine" and misspoke.

Totally agree that not a dime should be given to Hamas for the rebuild. I was starting with Derec's assumption that Hamas wouldn't be in charge anymore. With that criteria met, I think it would benefit Israel to help rebuild Gaza in order to prove to the Palestinians that they really were only fighting against Hamas and not the Gazans as a whole.

 

[Tigers!]

I agree about the settlers (although they are in the West Bank, not Gaza). And I also think that it's not possible to eliminate Hamas and some kind of cease fire and reconciliation is necessary to bring the hostages back. However, why should Israel help rebuild? Hamas attacked Israel. Brutally attacked. They won't be rebuilding there. I'm not against the US helping with many other countries to help rebuild. But not a dime to hamas. The Hamas leader reportedly has an $11 billion net worth. Let him rebuild.

If you accept that Hamas cannot be eliminated then you are accepting that the cycle of violence will continue ad infinitum. Is that what is really wanted?
A ceasefire is not peace, just a pause until the next round.

 

[laughing dog]

I agree about the settlers (although they are in the West Bank, not Gaza). And I also think that it's not possible to eliminate Hamas and some kind of cease fire and reconciliation is necessary to bring the hostages back. However, why should Israel help rebuild? Hamas attacked Israel. Brutally attacked. They won't be rebuilding there. I'm not against the US helping with many other countries to help rebuild. But not a dime to hamas. The Hamas leader reportedly has an $11 billion net worth. Let him rebuild.

If you accept that Hamas cannot be eliminated then you are accepting that the cycle of violence will continue ad infinitum. Is that what is really wanted?
A ceasefire is not peace, just a pause until the next round.

There is no reason to think Hamas or any i
other hardline militant group of terrorists will be completely eliminated by war.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I think it depends on who helps with the rebuilding. If Israel and the US step up with big $$ and effort to rebuild and then turn it over to a government (whatever that looks like) that we can at least be not hostile to, there might be a chance to keep calm in the future.

If Israel just decides they're done bombing Hamas, regardless of who is in the line of fire, and goes back home and leaves the rebuild to the Palestinians or whoever else in the region wants to help them it's just going to get way worse.

There is no de-radicalization possible after this war unless Israel can get all the settlers out of Gaza and recognize Palestine as it's own country. I'm not commenting philosophically either way on whether Palestine should be a real thing. Pragmatically, the cycle of violence will continue until it's a real thing.

It's possibly already too late and whatever comes after Hamas will be far more extreme.

I agree about the settlers (although they are in the West Bank, not Gaza). And I also think that it's not possible to eliminate Hamas and some kind of cease fire and reconciliation is necessary to bring the hostages back. However, why should Israel help rebuild? Hamas attacked Israel. Brutally attacked. They won't be rebuilding there. I'm not against the US helping with many other countries to help rebuild. But not a dime to hamas. The Hamas leader reportedly has an $11 billion net worth. Let him rebuild.

Israel is going to be cautious about rebuilding in general.

The thing is at least 10% of the construction supplies over the years have been diverted to Hamas despite supposedly being accurately accounted for. Until they can figure out how to avoid a repeat of this I don't think they'll be letting mass amounts of stuff in.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I agree about the settlers (although they are in the West Bank, not Gaza). And I also think that it's not possible to eliminate Hamas and some kind of cease fire and reconciliation is necessary to bring the hostages back. However, why should Israel help rebuild? Hamas attacked Israel. Brutally attacked. They won't be rebuilding there. I'm not against the US helping with many other countries to help rebuild. But not a dime to hamas. The Hamas leader reportedly has an $11 billion net worth. Let him rebuild.

If you accept that Hamas cannot be eliminated then you are accepting that the cycle of violence will continue ad infinitum. Is that what is really wanted?
A ceasefire is not peace, just a pause until the next round.

Yes, we know the violence will continue. We aren't falling for the fantasy that there's some magic solution to this.

 

[Tigers!]

I agree about the settlers (although they are in the West Bank, not Gaza). And I also think that it's not possible to eliminate Hamas and some kind of cease fire and reconciliation is necessary to bring the hostages back. However, why should Israel help rebuild? Hamas attacked Israel. Brutally attacked. They won't be rebuilding there. I'm not against the US helping with many other countries to help rebuild. But not a dime to hamas. The Hamas leader reportedly has an $11 billion net worth. Let him rebuild.

If you accept that Hamas cannot be eliminated then you are accepting that the cycle of violence will continue ad infinitum. Is that what is really wanted?
A ceasefire is not peace, just a pause until the next round.

There is no reason to think Hamas or any i
other hardline militant group of terrorists will be completely eliminated by war.

Seemed to work on the Nazis IIRC

 

[Arctish]

I agree about the settlers (although they are in the West Bank, not Gaza). And I also think that it's not possible to eliminate Hamas and some kind of cease fire and reconciliation is necessary to bring the hostages back. However, why should Israel help rebuild? Hamas attacked Israel. Brutally attacked. They won't be rebuilding there. I'm not against the US helping with many other countries to help rebuild. But not a dime to hamas. The Hamas leader reportedly has an $11 billion net worth. Let him rebuild.

If you accept that Hamas cannot be eliminated then you are accepting that the cycle of violence will continue ad infinitum. Is that what is really wanted?
A ceasefire is not peace, just a pause until the next round.

There is no reason to think Hamas or any i
other hardline militant group of terrorists will be completely eliminated by war.

Seemed to work on the Nazis IIRC

The Nazis were not eliminated. They were driven out of power but still managed to pass on their ideology to following generation of willing listeners, both in Germany and abroad. To this day, there are Nazis in Europe and America proudly displaying their Nazi swag as they march through major cities. They aren't even trying to hide their racism, bigotry, or plans for 'undesirables' in their societies.

You can't kill an ideology. You can only work to build a society where resistance to it is stronger than support for it.

 

[Gospel]

You can only work to build a society where resistance to it is stronger than support for it.

Exactly. Policies that purposefully allows groups like Hamas to gain sympathy and then retaliating with excessive surprise Pikachu missiles is not the right approach.

 

[laughing dog]

I agree about the settlers (although they are in the West Bank, not Gaza). And I also think that it's not possible to eliminate Hamas and some kind of cease fire and reconciliation is necessary to bring the hostages back. However, why should Israel help rebuild? Hamas attacked Israel. Brutally attacked. They won't be rebuilding there. I'm not against the US helping with many other countries to help rebuild. But not a dime to hamas. The Hamas leader reportedly has an $11 billion net worth. Let him rebuild.

If you accept that Hamas cannot be eliminated then you are accepting that the cycle of violence will continue ad infinitum. Is that what is really wanted?
A ceasefire is not peace, just a pause until the next round.

There is no reason to think Hamas or any i
other hardline militant group of terrorists will be completely eliminated by war.

Seemed to work on the Nazis IIRC.

Not really. They are still around, spread out and engaging in small scale acts of violence.

The Nazis were a recognized political party who proudly identified themselves. in Hamas and other terrorists are not.

The analogy between this situation and WWII is so unconvincing on so many levels beyond elimination of Jews that its invocation serms more like a desperate attempt to obscure the lack of a real argument than anything else.

 

[cycomiko]

I think it depends on who helps with the rebuilding. If Israel and the US step up with big $$ and effort to rebuild and then turn it over to a government (whatever that looks like) that we can at least be not hostile to, there might be a chance to keep calm in the future.

If Israel just decides they're done bombing Hamas, regardless of who is in the line of fire, and goes back home and leaves the rebuild to the Palestinians or whoever else in the region wants to help them it's just going to get way worse.

There is no de-radicalization possible after this war unless Israel can get all the settlers out of Gaza and recognize Palestine as it's own country. I'm not commenting philosophically either way on whether Palestine should be a real thing. Pragmatically, the cycle of violence will continue until it's a real thing.

It's possibly already too late and whatever comes after Hamas will be far more extreme.

I agree about the settlers (although they are in the West Bank, not Gaza). And I also think that it's not possible to eliminate Hamas and some kind of cease fire and reconciliation is necessary to bring the hostages back. However, why should Israel help rebuild? Hamas attacked Israel. Brutally attacked. They won't be rebuilding there. I'm not against the US helping with many other countries to help rebuild. But not a dime to hamas. The Hamas leader reportedly has an $11 billion net worth. Let him rebuild.

Israel is going to be cautious about rebuilding in general.

The thing is at least 10% of the construction supplies over the years have been diverted to Hamas despite supposedly being accurately accounted for. Until they can figure out how to avoid a repeat of this I don't think they'll be letting mass amounts of stuff in.

Valid. It then gets tricky since, I assume, Israel (or someone they trust) would want to be in control of the area during the rebuild to ensure the supplies were being used for their intended purpose. However, then we're back into a cycle of "occupiers" in the area and it just goes on and on.

I honestly think that both sides will simply get pushed further to the extremes and it will just keep getting worse.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I agree about the settlers (although they are in the West Bank, not Gaza). And I also think that it's not possible to eliminate Hamas and some kind of cease fire and reconciliation is necessary to bring the hostages back. However, why should Israel help rebuild? Hamas attacked Israel. Brutally attacked. They won't be rebuilding there. I'm not against the US helping with many other countries to help rebuild. But not a dime to hamas. The Hamas leader reportedly has an $11 billion net worth. Let him rebuild.

If you accept that Hamas cannot be eliminated then you are accepting that the cycle of violence will continue ad infinitum. Is that what is really wanted?
A ceasefire is not peace, just a pause until the next round.

There is no reason to think Hamas or any i
other hardline militant group of terrorists will be completely eliminated by war.

Seemed to work on the Nazis IIRC

Nobody was funding the Nazis after the war.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Israel is going to be cautious about rebuilding in general.

The thing is at least 10% of the construction supplies over the years have been diverted to Hamas despite supposedly being accurately accounted for. Until they can figure out how to avoid a repeat of this I don't think they'll be letting mass amounts of stuff in.

Valid. It then gets tricky since, I assume, Israel (or someone they trust) would want to be in control of the area during the rebuild to ensure the supplies were being used for their intended purpose. However, then we're back into a cycle of "occupiers" in the area and it just goes on and on.

I honestly think that both sides will simply get pushed further to the extremes and it will just keep getting worse.

Supervise how? They'll get ambushed.

 

[Tigers!]

I honestly think that both sides will simply get pushed further to the extremes and it will just keep getting worse.

I so wish that were not looking like becoming true

 

[Tigers!]

I agree about the settlers (although they are in the West Bank, not Gaza). And I also think that it's not possible to eliminate Hamas and some kind of cease fire and reconciliation is necessary to bring the hostages back. However, why should Israel help rebuild? Hamas attacked Israel. Brutally attacked. They won't be rebuilding there. I'm not against the US helping with many other countries to help rebuild. But not a dime to hamas. The Hamas leader reportedly has an $11 billion net worth. Let him rebuild.

If you accept that Hamas cannot be eliminated then you are accepting that the cycle of violence will continue ad infinitum. Is that what is really wanted?
A ceasefire is not peace, just a pause until the next round.

There is no reason to think Hamas or any i
other hardline militant group of terrorists will be completely eliminated by war.

Seemed to work on the Nazis IIRC.

Not really. They are still around, spread out and engaging in small scale acts of violence.

The Nazis were a recognized political party who proudly identified themselves. in Hamas and other terrorists are not.

What importance is attached to Hamas not being a recognised political party? They exist and are a threat to Israel as you have noted previously.
Hamas do not proudly identify themselves? That is news to the rest of the world.

The analogy between this situation and WWII is so unconvincing on so many levels beyond elimination of Jews that its invocation serms more like a desperate attempt to obscure the lack of a real argument than anything else.

If you could please point out previously where you noted what steps Israel could do to defend themselves, free the hostages and eliminate Hamas as being an existential threat to Israel's and Jews' existence without the calls of genocide, disproportionate response, war crimes etc. .
That would be most convenient

 

[TSwizzle]

The Gazan society will no doubt change due to this war. The direction of that change is unknown. Best case scenario is that they turn away from extremism and terrorism. That's why whoever runs Gaza after the war must implement a deradicalization campaign.

If Gazan society is to change then you don't you really need to tackle the Islamic Republic of Iran since they are the entity that funds Hamas?

 

[Tigers!]

The Nazis were not eliminated. They were driven out of power but still managed to pass on their ideology to following generation of willing listeners, both in Germany and abroad. To this day, there are Nazis in Europe and America proudly displaying their Nazi swag as they march through major cities. They aren't even trying to hide their racism, bigotry, or plans for 'undesirables' in their societies.

You can't kill an ideology. You can only work to build a society where resistance to it is stronger than support for it.

Are you saying that because the Nazis are still here we should do nothing about them?

 

[laughing dog]

I agree about the settlers (although they are in the West Bank, not Gaza). And I also think that it's not possible to eliminate Hamas and some kind of cease fire and reconciliation is necessary to bring the hostages back. However, why should Israel help rebuild? Hamas attacked Israel. Brutally attacked. They won't be rebuilding there. I'm not against the US helping with many other countries to help rebuild. But not a dime to hamas. The Hamas leader reportedly has an $11 billion net worth. Let him rebuild.

If you accept that Hamas cannot be eliminated then you are accepting that the cycle of violence will continue ad infinitum. Is that what is really wanted?
A ceasefire is not peace, just a pause until the next round.

There is no reason to think Hamas or any i
other hardline militant group of terrorists will be completely eliminated by war.

Seemed to work on the Nazis IIRC.

Not really. They are still around, spread out and engaging in small scale acts of violence.

The Nazis were a recognized political party who proudly identified themselves. in Hamas and other terrorists are not.

What importance is attached to Hamas not being a recognised political party? They exist and are a threat to Israel as you have noted previously.
Hamas do not proudly identify themselves? That is news to the rest of the world.

If Hamas is easily identifiable to the world, then why dies the IDF have such trouble identifying them?

The analogy between this situation and WWII is so unconvincing on so many levels beyond elimination of Jews that its invocation serms more like a desperate attempt to obscure the lack of a real argument than anything else.

If you could please point out previously where you noted what steps Israel could do to defend themselves, free the hostages and eliminate Hamas as being an existential threat to Israel's and Jews' existence without the calls of genocide, disproportionate response, war crimes etc. .
That would be most convenient

It is not possible to eliminate Hamas as an “ existential threat” ( assuming it has ever or will ever have that capability), I haven’t called IDF campaign genocidal. I don’t believe in the category of war crime ad useful or necessarily representing an agreed upon set of laws.

All of which would be clear to someone who carefully read this thread.