Greece, what the fuck?

[Jokodo]

Also, Greece is actually running a primary surplus. The government isn't asking for another loan or aid package in order to cover running expenses, they can cover those out of the revenues, thank you very much. The only reason they need more money now is to serve the debts accrued by previous governments.

I'm not convinced that Greece is running a primary surplus. It has cooked the books before, and is probably cooking the books now.

It has cooked the books when everyone wanted it to show a good balance, when it was run by a mainstream conservative government they trusted. Cooking the books when everyone's waiting for your first mistake is quite a bit harder to do.

But even if Greece was running a primary surplus, that was during the last government. Is that still the case with Syriza being in charge and reverting many of the austerity measures?

Yes. Google it.

 

[Jokodo]

I'm not convinced that Greece is running a primary surplus. It has cooked the books before, and is probably cooking the books now.

But even if Greece was running a primary surplus, that was during the last government. Is that still the case with Syriza being in charge and reverting many of the austerity measures?

Yeah, at this point I wouldn't trust Greece to make change for a $1. They want to continue to live on borrowed money and aren't interested in addressing their economic problems.

They want to continue to live, period. They only need borrowed money to serve old debts. Forcing them to do so now at the cost of ruining what's left of their economy isn't helping anyone and only serves to keep face in front of Northern European domestic audiences who've been propagandised to blame everything on the lazy and irresponsible Greeks. It's narcissistic and dangerous economically irrational behaviour.

 

[whichphilosophy]

Yeah, at this point I wouldn't trust Greece to make change for a $1. They want to continue to live on borrowed money and aren't interested in addressing their economic problems.

They want to continue to live, period. They only need borrowed money to serve old debts. Forcing them to do so now at the cost of ruining what's left of their economy isn't helping anyone and only serves to keep face in front of Northern European domestic audiences who've been propagandised to blame everything on the lazy and irresponsible Greeks. It's narcissistic and dangerous economically irrational behaviour.

There's a difference between lazy and bad government which ran the economy like a credit card. Whatever the rights and wrongs the Greeks have seen a sharp trend in unemployment as businesses close down. Working people and small businesses are not lazy, they are unemployed. The EU and Greece should try for solutions. Maybe some Greeks can find work in other parts of Europe but that will be a few.

 

[dismal]

I have to admit that I don't get the Greece negotiation tactics with the troika.

The IMF payment is due June 30th. The troika devices a plan to continue financing, with some conditions attached that the Greek government disagreed with. So they reject the plan, but at the same time say that they want to put it up for referendum... but after the payment is due already.

Is Greece playing chicken and forcing IMF to give it extra time until next week?

Or is the Greek government fully aware that they have to accept the conditions, but can't do it for political reasons, and are hence giving their own people a taste of what going bankrupt feels like?

Or are they determined to have a clean break, default and/or leave Euro, and the referendum is just means to give them political cover for all the hardships that it entails?

The current government were elected with an irrational mandate and they are acting on it as best they can.

As Mencken said, "Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."

 

[ksen]

Why's the focus on Greece?

It's the Troika that is being unreasonable.

 

[DrZoidberg]

I have to admit that I don't get the Greece negotiation tactics with the troika.

The IMF payment is due June 30th. The troika devices a plan to continue financing, with some conditions attached that the Greek government disagreed with. So they reject the plan, but at the same time say that they want to put it up for referendum... but after the payment is due already.

Is Greece playing chicken and forcing IMF to give it extra time until next week?

Or is the Greek government fully aware that they have to accept the conditions, but can't do it for political reasons, and are hence giving their own people a taste of what going bankrupt feels like?

Or are they determined to have a clean break, default and/or leave Euro, and the referendum is just means to give them political cover for all the hardships that it entails?

It´s more complicated. There´s a very unhelpful Greek culture of anti-establishment and assuming that the government are corrupt. Which it also is. Greek officials have a long history of cooking the books. So all the numbers used by the Greek finance ministry have always been unreliable. So it´s like a sport to avoid paying taxes in Greece. Pretty much the only people who pay their taxes like they should are government employees. So in the minds of the Greeks it was the corrupt ruling class who got them into this mess. So they don´t see why they should be stuck with the bill.

If I´ve understood the situation it´s like they think that it´s the rest of Europes fault for lending them the money (2008 -) which allowed Greece to run up this much deficit. Historically Greece has amassed about as much debt as lenders will allow them to. This was also true back in the days of the Greek junta. The Greek people see the European central bank as being in bed with the corrupt Greek politicians who got them into this mess, and that it´s all just one big elaborate scam to screw them over some more. Tsipras was elected to hold that position. They want the European central bank to admit they have part of the responsibility and compromise with them. Which they won´t.

Italy, Spain and Turkey also have this very unhelpful tax-dodging culture. It´s a legacy from the fascist regimes that have ruled them. Since West and Northern Europe are cultures where the civic system seems to be working we have trouble understanding each other. Basically, the Greeks think we´re dicks, and we think the Greeks are dicks. This is why the negotiations are stalling.

 

[Nice Squirrel]

Too Greek to fail.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

I have to admit that I don't get the Greece negotiation tactics with the troika.

The IMF payment is due June 30th. The troika devices a plan to continue financing, with some conditions attached that the Greek government disagreed with. So they reject the plan, but at the same time say that they want to put it up for referendum... but after the payment is due already.

Is Greece playing chicken and forcing IMF to give it extra time until next week?

Or is the Greek government fully aware that they have to accept the conditions, but can't do it for political reasons, and are hence giving their own people a taste of what going bankrupt feels like?

Or are they determined to have a clean break, default and/or leave Euro, and the referendum is just means to give them political cover for all the hardships that it entails?

It´s more complicated. There´s a very unhelpful Greek culture of anti-establishment and assuming that the government are corrupt. Which it also is. Greek officials have a long history of cooking the books. So all the numbers used by the Greek finance ministry have always been unreliable. So it´s like a sport to avoid paying taxes in Greece. Pretty much the only people who pay their taxes like they should are government employees. So in the minds of the Greeks it was the corrupt ruling class who got them into this mess. So they don´t see why they should be stuck with the bill.

If I´ve understood the situation it´s like they think that it´s the rest of Europes fault for lending them the money (2008 -) which allowed Greece to run up this much deficit. Historically Greece has amassed about as much debt as lenders will allow them to. This was also true back in the days of the Greek junta. The Greek people see the European central bank as being in bed with the corrupt Greek politicians who got them into this mess, and that it´s all just one big elaborate scam to screw them over some more. Tsipras was elected to hold that position. They want the European central bank to admit they have part of the responsibility and compromise with them. Which they won´t.

Italy, Spain and Turkey also have this very unhelpful tax-dodging culture. It´s a legacy from the fascist regimes that have ruled them. Since West and Northern Europe are cultures where the civic system seems to be working we have trouble understanding each other. Basically, the Greeks think we´re dicks, and we think the Greeks are dicks. This is why the negotiations are stalling.

Then a break is the only solution. There's no such thing as a clean break, not even when bones are involved. It's always hurts.

 

[ksen]

Welp, Greek banks are closed for the next 6 days pending a referendum about whether or not Greeks want to stay in the EU.

I hope they vote no and are able to regain control of their own currency so they can start getting their economy back on track so people don't have to suffer much longer.

tl;dr: fuck the EU

 

[whichphilosophy]

Welp, Greek banks are closed for the next 6 days pending a referendum about whether or not Greeks want to stay in the EU.

I hope they vote no and are able to regain control of their own currency so they can start getting their economy back on track so people don't have to suffer much longer.

tl;dr: fuck the EU

For those without money which is in the bank this will be difficult. The EU wont be happy if China and Russia offers assistance. interest will be reduced and substituted with payment in kind and favours.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...to-Russia-and-China-unless-Europe-yields.html

 

[whichphilosophy]

I have to admit that I don't get the Greece negotiation tactics with the troika.

The IMF payment is due June 30th. The troika devices a plan to continue financing, with some conditions attached that the Greek government disagreed with. So they reject the plan, but at the same time say that they want to put it up for referendum... but after the payment is due already.

Is Greece playing chicken and forcing IMF to give it extra time until next week?

Or is the Greek government fully aware that they have to accept the conditions, but can't do it for political reasons, and are hence giving their own people a taste of what going bankrupt feels like?

Or are they determined to have a clean break, default and/or leave Euro, and the referendum is just means to give them political cover for all the hardships that it entails?

The current government were elected with an irrational mandate and they are acting on it as best they can.

As Mencken said, "Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."

I think the definition of democracy is wrong. You can have a democracy in a nut house, but it will be an insane democracy. Democracy is about being able to select ones leaders and express one's views.

 

[dismal]

Welp, Greek banks are closed for the next 6 days pending a referendum about whether or not Greeks want to stay in the EU.

I hope they vote no and are able to regain control of their own currency so they can start getting their economy back on track so people don't have to suffer much longer.

tl;dr: fuck the EU

It's not clear to me how this is going to allow them to spend other people's money, but it is a solid step toward solving all the problems that can be solved with Zimbabwification of the currency.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

Welp, Greek banks are closed for the next 6 days pending a referendum about whether or not Greeks want to stay in the EU.

I hope they vote no and are able to regain control of their own currency so they can start getting their economy back on track so people don't have to suffer much longer.

tl;dr: fuck the EU

The referendum seems to be on whether to accept the proposal of the EU, the IMF, and the European Commission.
If the majority of voters votes "no", that will probably result in an exit from the euro (even if that's not the question), but it's not likely at this point that Greece would also leave the EU.

 

[whichphilosophy]

Welp, Greek banks are closed for the next 6 days pending a referendum about whether or not Greeks want to stay in the EU.

I hope they vote no and are able to regain control of their own currency so they can start getting their economy back on track so people don't have to suffer much longer.

tl;dr: fuck the EU

The referendum seems to be on whether to accept the proposal of the EU, the IMF, and the European Commission.
If the majority of voters votes "no", that will probably result in an exit from the euro (even if that's not the question), but it's not likely at this point that Greece would also leave the EU.

It may take time but that is likely to happen.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

The referendum seems to be on whether to accept the proposal of the EU, the IMF, and the European Commission.
If the majority of voters votes "no", that will probably result in an exit from the euro (even if that's not the question), but it's not likely at this point that Greece would also leave the EU.

It may take time but that is likely to happen.

How much time are you talking about?
(if we were talking an unlimited amount, of course eventually the EU will not exist - and neither will Greece, but clearly that's not what you have in mind).

 

[Derec]

I wonder if the 1/3 of the people who actually voted for Syriza are starting to regret their decision.

 

[fromderinside]

It's not clear to me how this is going to allow them to spend other people's money, but it is a solid step toward solving all the problems that can be solved with Zimbabwification of the currency.

Its clear to me that the money had already been spent without adequate vesting by lenders. Why should lenders get their payments when they didn't even bother to investigate whether Greece has/had the ability or will to repay. Now the cows are out and the EU fat cats want Greece to pay to bring them back in - most of the cows are dead along the road of the past several decades - at their expense. Not likely to happen. Also not likely to happen is a dramatic change of culture or restructuring of economy in Greece to make payment possible.

Recommendation. Take losses. Reset to repayment level which Greece can grow and change over, say, about 15 years.

But no. Fat cats think money grows on trees in Greece too.

Grow up EU.

 

[dismal]

It's not clear to me how this is going to allow them to spend other people's money, but it is a solid step toward solving all the problems that can be solved with Zimbabwification of the currency.

Its clear to me that the money had already been spent without adequate vesting by lenders. Why should lenders get their payments when they didn't even bother to investigate whether Greece has/had the ability or will to repay. Now the cows are out and the EU fat cats wants Greece to pay to bring them back in - most of the cows are dead along the road of the past several decades - at their expense. Not likely to happen. Also not likely to happen is a dramatic change of culture or restructuring of economy to make payment possible.

Recommendation. Take losses, reset to repayment level which Greece can grow and change over, say, about 15 years.

But no. Fat cats think money grws on trees in Greece too.

Grow up EU.

Again, Greece wants to borrow more money.

It turns out that squawking all the time how your evil lenders do not deserve to get paid back is not a good way to convince your lenders to lend you more.

 

[faded_Glory]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the money lent to Greece isn't actually coming out of anybody's savings, right? It is fiat money created out of thin air. The only reason Greece needs more borrowing now is to pay interest on their debt, they don't need it to carry on living. So what if it the interest payments slow down a little? The only thing that would hurt would be the Central Bank's balance sheet. The troika want payments because for them it is pure profit. Why do the they need to make a profit from the carcass of a struggling EU member state? Is that what the EU is about?

 

[ksen]

It's not clear to me how this is going to allow them to spend other people's money

They don't need other people's money to pay their expenses since they've been running a primary surplus.