Hillary's numbers are tanking

[Axulus]

Is it the revelation of the re-opening of the investigation into Hil's e-mails? Or maybe that there hasn't been any big new negative stories against Trump? Whatever the case may be, 538 has Trump back up to over a 32% chance of winning, given the recent downswing in the polls for Hillary.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

I don't know if any of you have ever played poker, but having lost a situation where you have a 67% or greater advantage, on numerous occasions, really drives home the realization that Trump has a legitimate chance of winning this election.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Is it the revelation of the re-opening of the investigation into Hil's e-mails? Or maybe that there hasn't been any big new negative stories against Trump? Whatever the case may be, 538 has Trump back up to over a 32% chance of winning, given the recent downswing in the polls for Hillary.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

I don't know if any of you have ever played poker, but having lost a situation where you have a 67% or greater advantage, on numerous occasions, really drives home the realization that Trump has a legitimate chance of winning this election.

Clinton won the popular vote.

Most polls showing Trump catching up are only accurate if only 1 in 5 voters on election day are under the age of 40. Also Clinton has a small advantage of additional Latino votes not included in the polling because there more Latinos in the US than 2012, which is used as the baseline.

 

[credoconsolans]

Depends on what poll you're looking at.

Others show Hillary still with a lead.

And why do Trump supporters care anyway? Didn't Trump say he didn't believe in polls? Or does he only believe in them when they show he's ahead?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Depends on what poll you're looking at.

Others show Hillary still with a lead.

And why do Trump supporters care anyway? Didn't Trump say he didn't believe in polls? Or does he only believe in them when they show he's ahead?

A University of Denver poll is again overpolling older people, about two above 65+ than voted in 2012 in Colorado.

Some of the polls are showing NH, CO being real close now. There are reasons to suspect these polls. But things may be getting a little too close again.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Depends on what poll you're looking at.

Others show Hillary still with a lead.

And why do Trump supporters care anyway? Didn't Trump say he didn't believe in polls? Or does he only believe in them when they show he's ahead?

Ya, it's amazing how quickly the polls stopped being rigged. It's probably because he called them out on it, so they changed their models to have them stop faking the numbers.

I'll be so glad next week when either nobody needs to give a shit about Donald Trump anymore or we get to watch him try and be President. The former would be a massive relief and the latter would be so fucking funny and entertaining that everybody who's not an American be able to have a good laugh.

 

[fast]

Depends on what poll you're looking at.

Others show Hillary still with a lead.

And why do Trump supporters care anyway? Didn't Trump say he didn't believe in polls? Or does he only believe in them when they show he's ahead?

Lol, that reminds me of my chastising others for ordering themselves food I don't eat. They always want to know what difference it makes since I won't be eating it.

 

[Elixir]

Depends on what poll you're looking at.

Others show Hillary still with a lead.

And why do Trump supporters care anyway? Didn't Trump say he didn't believe in polls? Or does he only believe in them when they show he's ahead?

Ya, it's amazing how quickly the polls stopped being rigged. It's probably because he called them out on it, so they changed their models to have them stop faking the numbers.

I'll be so glad next week when either nobody needs to give a shit about Donald Trump anymore or we get to watch him try and be President. The former would be a massive relief and the latter would be so fucking funny and entertaining that everybody who's not an American be able to have a good laugh.

Yeah, you can laugh for a while, until President Trump decides to nuke Canada because he doesn't like something someone said about him on Twitter. Then you won't be laughing!

 

[James Brown]

And why do Trump supporters care anyway? Didn't Trump say he didn't believe in polls? Or does he only believe in them when they show he's ahead?

Heads, I win. Tails, you cheated.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Yeah, you can laugh for a while, until President Trump decides to nuke Canada because he doesn't like something someone said about him on Twitter. Then you won't be laughing!

Hey, if Donald Trump tries to nuke Canada, the only people who need to worry are the Bolivians.

The man is a fucking moron and I have zero confidence in his map reading abilities.

 

[AthenaAwakened]

Yeah, you can laugh for a while, until President Trump decides to nuke Canada because he doesn't like something someone said about him on Twitter. Then you won't be laughing!

Hey, if Donald Trump tries to nuke Canada, the only people who need to worry are the Bolivians.

The man is a fucking moron and I have zero confidence in his map reading abilities.

FIFY

 

[AthenaAwakened]

Is it the revelation of the re-opening of the investigation into Hil's e-mails? Or maybe that there hasn't been any big new negative stories against Trump? Whatever the case may be, 538 has Trump back up to over a 32% chance of winning, given the recent downswing in the polls for Hillary.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

I don't know if any of you have ever played poker, but having lost a situation where you have a 67% or greater advantage, on numerous occasions, really drives home the realization that Trump has a legitimate chance of winning this election.

I think at last count Trump now has four paths to win. They all depend on scenarios that are in no way definite, but a month ago, he didn't have any paths under any scenario.

 

[skepticalbip]

Is it the revelation of the re-opening of the investigation into Hil's e-mails? Or maybe that there hasn't been any big new negative stories against Trump? Whatever the case may be, 538 has Trump back up to over a 32% chance of winning, given the recent downswing in the polls for Hillary.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

I don't know if any of you have ever played poker, but having lost a situation where you have a 67% or greater advantage, on numerous occasions, really drives home the realization that Trump has a legitimate chance of winning this election.

I think at last count Trump now has four paths to win. They all depend on scenarios that are in no way definite, but a month ago, he didn't have any paths under any scenario.

That shows that it is kinda absurd to pay much attention to polls and pundits until maybe a day or so before the election. And even then to take them with a grain of salt. But then many people have been expending a hell of a lot of time since July following them and investing a great deal of emotion during the ups and downs.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

I think at last count Trump now has four paths to win. They all depend on scenarios that are in no way definite, but a month ago, he didn't have any paths under any scenario.

That shows that it is kinda absurd to pay much attention to polls and pundits until maybe a day or so before the election. And even then to take them with a grain of salt. But then many people have been expending a hell of a lot of time since July following them and investing a great deal of emotion during the ups and downs.

Well, you also have to remember that the day before the election started to happen about three weeks ago. About a third of your country has already voted and most of those voted during the period when Clinton had a huge lead and much better ground operation to back that up.

Trump "closing in" on Clinton at this point in the race doesn't help him because he needs to make up ground that he has lost amongst votes which have already been cast. The percentage of potential voters for him haven't been registering in great numbers either, so it's not like there's some uncounted hidden surge in his direction that's waiting to happen. He does have a better chance than he had a week ago, but it's still in the realm of a theoretical chance than it is a likely chance.

 

[Axulus]

It's looking more and more like Florida could determine this election. The polling numbers there are very even between the two of them. There are almost no scenarios where Trump can win without Florida, and several paths where he can win with it.

He is also expanding his lead in Ohio, another must-win state for Trump.

 

[blastula]

538 is the only major forecaster that has Clinton's chances under 85%.

Also, YouGov | Beware the phantom swings: why dramatic bounces in the polls aren't always what they seem

- - - Updated - - -

It's looking more and more like Florida could determine this election. The polling numbers there are very even between the two of them. There are almost no scenarios where Trump can win without Florida, and several paths where he can win with it.

He is also expanding his lead in Ohio, another must-win state for Trump.

Except Clinton has multiple paths without either state.

 

[Tristan Scott]

In 2012, 2 days before the election CNN, Politico and Monmouth all had it even, Rasmussen and Gallup had Romney +1, ABC and Pew had Obama up 3 and NBC had Obama +1. The election ended with Obama +4.

The way I see this year is that if everyone that voted for Obama in 2012 votes for Hillary she will win. If a lot of people stay home, Trump could pull it off.

 

[bilby]

It is worth noting that today's polls are a snapshot of public opinion at least several days ago. It is quite possible that Trump got a brief bounce from the FBI/emails thing, and that this has since reversed but that the reversal doesn't appear in the polls. (of course it is also possible that he got a permanent boost from this news; We won't know for a few more days - probably not until the election itself).

My gut feeling is that Trump might win Ohio and Florida, but that doing so will simply be insufficient to get him to 270 EVs. Hillary is going to win; IF the latest polling is reflected in the actual voting, she will win by a smaller margin than I expect, but she will still win.

My belief is that she will win by a much larger margin (particularly in EVs, but also in the popular vote total) than the polls currently indicate. Whether that belief is justified, we will know on the 9th.

 

[SLD]

In 2012, 2 days before the election CNN, Politico and Monmouth all had it even, Rasmussen and Gallup had Romney +1, ABC and Pew had Obama up 3 and NBC had Obama +1. The election ended with Obama +4.

The way I see this year is that if everyone that voted for Obama in 2012 votes for Hillary she will win. If a lot of people stay home, Trump could pull it off.

yes, but there was one poll that was predicting a 4+ Obama victory in 2012 and that was the LA Times/USC poll. That methodology is still being used by them and has consistently shown a Trump lead. Maybe though this year that method really won't work and 2012 was a fluke.

It's just too close to call. It will depend on turnout in key battleground states - which some signs indicate are favoring the democrats. Fortunately I've already voted. Of course living in the frickin' reddest state in the country (i.e. the one that elected Republicans head of all three branches of government only to have everyone of them frickin' impeached or about to be) my vote is pretty much useless.

SLD

 

[SLD]

It is worth noting that today's polls are a snapshot of public opinion at least several days ago. It is quite possible that Trump got a brief bounce from the FBI/emails thing, and that this has since reversed but that the reversal doesn't appear in the polls. (of course it is also possible that he got a permanent boost from this news; We won't know for a few more days - probably not until the election itself).

My gut feeling is that Trump might win Ohio and Florida, but that doing so will simply be insufficient to get him to 270 EVs. Hillary is going to win; IF the latest polling is reflected in the actual voting, she will win by a smaller margin than I expect, but she will still win.

My belief is that she will win by a much larger margin (particularly in EVs, but also in the popular vote total) than the polls currently indicate. Whether that belief is justified, we will know on the 9th.

I think you raise some good points, and I certainly hope you are correct in the end. Poll numbers released tomorrow or Saturday should show us whether its true or not. Right now, if she can hold on to Colorado and North Carolina, plus with her very real shot at Florida, she will go on to victory - even if its only by 3 EV's.

SLD

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

I keep seeing analysis's showing Clinton leading among women by about 15% while Trump leads among men by about 5% or so. Since women voters out number men voters, Clinton should be far ahead. But she is barely ahead in most polls. Something here is out of whack. I keep seeing various news articles about women who plan to vote Clinton, but are keeping that to themselves, which are true or not true. If so, Trump loses. What the hell is going on with all of this? We will have to wait til the week after election day to see how this resolves itself. But it may well be that Trump will have caused the pollsters to rewrite the conventional wisdom about polling. Only now is early voting getting analysis, but numbers involved are still too small to be predictive. There is a lot of wishful thinking and cherry-picking polls going on all around. I hope this pro HRC silent majority of women voters phenomena is true, but it may well be a fantasy.